by Mark Silva
The other day, NBC’s Ann Curry asked Barack Obama about Hillary Clinton’s 17-point lead in Pennsylvania.
“That was last week,’’ Obama joked.
This week, things are looking closer in the Keystone State: The Quinnipiac University poll released today portrayed a 50-41 percentage point Clinton advantage over Obama three weeks from the April 22 primary there – a vote which Clinton considers critical to her claim that she is the electable Democrat.
This is a little narrower than the 53 - 41 percentage point lead that Clinton held in a March 18 survey by Quinnipiac. But it’s a lot narrower than the 52-36 point advantage Clinton held in a Valentine’s Day poll by the university’s polling institute.
Yet a lead is a lead.
“Sen. Clinton's imaginary snipers, Rev. Wright, Geraldine Ferraro, these events have taken only a small toll on Sen. Clinton's lead in the Pennsylvania Democratic primary," Clay Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, said in a report on the poll.
"Her strength is her clear advantage among white voters - blue collar whites, less educated whites, economically hurting whites, that group known famously as Reagan Democrats in the Keystone State,’’ Richards said. “Obama is marshalling all his forces, but despite his eloquent dialogue on the race issue, Pennsylvania Democrats are unmoved. So Far."
See the Swamp's report today on Clinton's standing in this and two other critical swing states.







Comments
Drip Drip Drip.....
Caucuses Guarantee Obama Win In Texas
AUSTIN - With more than 56% of the results tallied from today's 284 Democratic district conventions across Texas, Senator Barack Obama currently is projected to earn a 38-29 pledged delegate win in the Texas caucuses, exactly as projected on the day after the March 4th precinct caucuses. The nine delegate margin in the caucuses means Obama will gain a net margin of five pledged delegates from Texas because Senator Clinton narrowly won the Texas primary by only four delegates, 65-61.
"Despite the Clinton campaign's widespread attempts to prevent many Texans from participating in their district convention, the voters of Texas confirmed Senator Obama's important delegate win in the Lone Star State," said Obama spokesman Josh Earnest. "Today's record-shattering turnout sends a clear message that the American people are ready for change in Washington and new leadership in the White House that will stand up for working families."
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/03/obama_camp_declares_victory_in.php
Now let's see how long it takes for the media to catch onto the fact that Obama won Texas.
This serves to underscore that just about everything that's happened since March 4th has been a net gain for Obama. And besides being good news for the Obama camp, given the huge turnout in the primary and the caucuses, a reinvigorated Texas Democratic party in Texas is going to be good for Democrats there at all levels.
Posted by: Sandy Berger | April 2, 2008 2:31 PM
I hope Clinton enjoys her PA victory...because it will be her last.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0BrPZYbCdJ4&eurl=http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/4/1/85359/24244
Posted by: Bu$h Wacked | April 2, 2008 2:32 PM
This will all be over in a matter of weeks if not days. Hillary's shoes and pantsuits are about to be repossessed, I swear.
Clinton's planes will be grounded for lack of gas money, her phones will be cut off, electricity will get cut off and her credit cards will quit working any day now. She won't find any more vendors willing to give the bum anymore credit. The MSM will start talking about her long list of creditors and it will start to be curtains.
She is so in debt right now that the campaign has resorted to astroturfing her FUNDRAISERS! Check out the WSJ for Peggy Noonan's column. Noonan had bought a cheap seat, but then they moved a bunch of folks from the cheap seats into the "high dollar" area lest it look completely barren and empty.
Also - Slate has a deathwatch meter up.
TPM election central has the links....
The Clinton campaign has about $2 million in chargebacks that they need to issue for "accidentally" doublecharging donors on their credit cards
Posted by: Genifer Flowers | April 2, 2008 2:34 PM
This is Hillary Clinton: Whitewater, Travelgate, Monica Lewinsky and impeachment, renting out the Lincoln bedroom, the loss of the Rose Law Firm billing records for nearly 2 years until they were miraculously found in the White House living quarters, removing files from Vince Foster’s office following his suicide and before investigators could get there. Her stalling to release her full tax returns and earmark requests from her time in the Senate, as well as her Clinton library donors. Her apology to the African American community (for her campaigns racist comments) which came days too late. Her decline to return $170,000 in campaign contributions from individuals at International Profit Associates, or IPA accused of widespread sexual harassment, and whose CEO is a disbarred lawyer with a criminal record. Lets not forget her campaign eventually returned some $850,000 to Hong Kong businessman Norman Hsu who was found to be a fugitive in a 15-year old theft case. He was indicted for fraud related to his campaign contributions in 2007. Her failed inclusion and diplomacy with congress on her universal health care bid. Her subsequent surrender and alignment to the health care industry. Her flip flop on NAFTA. Her flip flop on Iraq. Her flip flop on Florida and Michigan. Her exaggerated foreign policy experience. Her dealing the race card better than Republicans could. Clinton photo with Rezko. Clinton photo and prayer breakfast with Rev Wright. Her lies about Bosnia. Her failure to get the endorsement of close friend Bill Richardson. Her flip flop on pledged delegates and superdelegates by encouraging party elite to vote against the will of the people - “I believe strongly that in a democracy, we should respect the will of the people and to me, that means it’s time to do away with the Electoral College and move to the popular election of our president.” - Hillary Clinton in 2000
Posted by: Matt | April 2, 2008 2:37 PM
It will go back up to a double digit lead as the PA primary gets closer.
The momentum is going to shift Senator Hillary's way as the national media is finally vetting Senator Obama and his record as an Illinois State Senator, as a candidate for Congress (he lost that race) and as a U.S. Senator.
Posted by: Evelyn | April 2, 2008 3:48 PM
Still up a very comfy 9 points. Up is the new gaining in this economy.
Posted by: Jeff | April 2, 2008 4:15 PM
OBAMA IS THE DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE.
AS A DEMOCRAT AM RUNNING AWAY FROM CLINTON BECAUSE SHE HAS BEEN RUNNING A NEGATIVE CAMPAIGN AND IT IS CLEAR MAJORITY OF AMERICANS ARE AGAINST THAT.THE INJECTION OF RACE INTO POLLS BY POLLSTERS IS SHAMEFUL AND IS MEANT TO CHASE MORE SUPPORTERS FROM CLINTON TO OBAMA.AM WHITE AND I WILL VOTE OBAMA SINCE HE SEEMS TO BE ABLE TO UNITE AMERICANS AND HIS IS NOT 'DO ANYTHING TO BE NOMINATED ' LIKE CLINTON.AM IN FACT TAKING UP AN AFRICAN NAME IN PROTEST OF OUR RACIAL POLLSTERS.WE DONT CARE WHO IS RED,WHITE,BLACK,YELLOW.....THE FACT IS DEMOCRATS COUNTYWIDE ARE FOR OBAMA ....NOT EVEN MCCAIN CAN STAN IN HURRICANE OBAMA'S WAY...OBAMA IS A TSUNAMI...A POLITICAL TSUNAMI....OLD AMERICANS WILL DO ANYTHING TO RETAIN THE STATUS QUO BUT YOUNG AMERICANS ARE SAYING NO....NOBODY BETWEEN 18 AND 50 WILL VOTE FOR MCCAIN AND THEY HAVE REJECTED CLINTON....OBAMA FOR PRESIDENT.
Posted by: w.jaine | April 2, 2008 5:13 PM
Blue collar workers care about their jobs, but second to that is the overall issue of honesty and trust.
NAFTA and Bosnia - those are the two that I think hurt Hillary most with many blue collar workers in PA, and may even cost her the state. But the one that won't go away, that 527's would have a field day with in a general election, is Hillary's multiple accounts of her trip to Bosnia.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KIH-n1g1fnY
Posted by: Steven Douglas | April 2, 2008 9:43 PM
Words matter - especially in opinion polling.
" ... but DESPITE his (Obama's) ELOQUENT dialogue on the race issue, Pennsylvania Democrats are UNMOVED. ..", said Clay Richards of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. The choice of words here suggest a bias on the part of this poll taker.
Moreover, it seems to me that from 16 points down ( 52-36, Feb 14 ) to 12 points down ( 53 - 41, Mar 18 ) to 9 points down (50-41, Apr 2) implies that those Pennsylvania are being moved. If you don't believe it, just talk privately to the Clinton camp. Maybe Richards does not BELIEVE it.
[Richards must have noticed some polls that put Sen Obama ahead of Sen Clinton in Pennsylvania state primaries. If so, that may be reason for his curious abandonment of an observer's neutrality.]
Posted by: chokora | April 5, 2008 3:10 PM
Don't be very petty about Hillary Clinton. Get down to the most important thing. Find out who Barack Hussein Obama really is. Read his book, "Dreams From My Father". Every page has been reported to be "bristling with anger at some imputed racial incident". Everyone I know who has read the book has described Obama with words I cannot even print here. Read the book and find out why Obama should not be elected President of the United States. You'll hate yourself for going Obama, once you read about how he "plays with white man's rules. After all, isn't he also the least qualified and least experienced of the 3 Presidential hopefuls?
Posted by: Amy E. | April 7, 2008 12:40 AM
amy:
Is 'racism' evil?
Is there 'racism' in USA?
Is 'racism' institutionalized in USA? YES.
Can we talk with conviction about racism, Amy?
According to our constitution, the candidates are 'qualified' to seek the presidency - after the issues regarding Sen McCain's 'natural birth' are sorted out. Thus you don't have a good argument against any of them. But you may have a personal preference.
We don't always choose the oldest or 'most experienced' of the candidates to lead us. That is why a president has advisers and think tanks galore. And the congress of old talkers is there for "advice and consent".
'Wisdom' may come with age - but not the 'right stuff' for leadership.
For instance, when we elected Pres John Kennedy, we were NOT looking for 'most experience'. Most Americans are still mighty pleased with that voter-decision.
Posted by: chokora | April 9, 2008 5:21 PM