The Swamp
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Posted April 4, 2008 9:50 AM
The Swamp

by Frank James

Today's very bad jobs report--the economy lost 80,000 jobs in March--is going to make it much harder for certain policymakers (an image of President Bush just came to mind) to keep up appearances that the economy isn't in recession.

The job losses, the largest in five years, were greater than many economists expected and it was the third consecutive month of job losses to boot. What's more, the reduced payrolls helped push the unemployment rate to 5.1 percent for March, the higest level since September 2005.

It goes without saying that this is really bad news which could further demoralize investors, like they need any more demoralization, and add to weakeness in the financial markets. Not surprising the Dow Jones Industrial Average headed lower when the market NYSE began trading a few minutes ago; stock futures were headed lower too.

On Wednesday, Federal Chairman Ben Bernanke said a "recession is possible," an clearly stated acknowledgement that received a lot of attention.

The payroll numbers scream that a recession may not only be possible but here as employers hunker down amid the credit crunch and all the other uncertainties in the market.

It's looking increasingly likely that the economy has fallen into a hole that all those economic stimulus checks that will soon be going out to millions of Americans won't be able to fill.

Today's jobs report raises the likelihood that Bernanke and fellow members of the Federal Open Market Committee will feel a lot of pressure to once again aggressively cut their key short-term rates when they meet at the end of April.

Their Federal Funds target rate, which serves as a bellwether for many other short-term rates, is now at 2.25 percent with many analysts expecting it to be at 1.75 percent by mid-summer.

The March report certainly demanded the attention of the presidential campaigns and a few statements have come in.

Here's Sen. John McCain's, the winner of the Republican presidential primaries.

ARLINGTON, VA -- U.S. Senator John McCain today issued the following statement on the jobs report:

"This morning's report is a stark reminder of the economic challenges confronting families today. Across this country, many Americans are hurting. It is imperative to restore the economic foundations for America's families and small businesses. In addition to rapid and targeted help for those families hurt by the mortgage crisis, it is essential to reduce the burdens on businesses and workers by lowering taxes, streamlining regulation, tackling health care costs, opening markets to American goods and helping those workers in need. Today's news also underlines the need to focus on innovation, which grows the economy and creates an urgent need for effective worker re-training.


"Despite today's news, the Democrats will continue to advance their anti-growth agenda. The American people cannot afford the Democrats and their economic leadership. Washington must not be an obstacle to economic growth and robust job creation."

And here is the statement of Sen. Hillary Clinton's (D-N.Y.):

Today’s news that unemployment jumped to 5.1% in March and that our economy lost jobs for the third straight month adds to the mounting evidence that our economy is spiraling downward, and that hardworking families are paying the price.

It’s time the President and John McCain recognize the r-word: reality. Our economy is in serious trouble and unless we act swiftly we could be sliding into a deep and painful recession.

When Wall Street faced crisis, we saw swiftly and creative action and a $30 billion lifeline for Bear Stearns. Today’s jobs report confirms that it’s time to take equally aggressive action to help American families struggling in our bearish economy.

For more than a year I have been like Paulette Revere, calling for action to keep the problems from our housing market from spilling over into our economy. After a year of denial and half-measures it is time for this Administration to put ideology aside and get serious about stemming this crisis. Perhaps this jobs report will also help John McCain recognize that doing nothing is not an economic strategy in times of urgent need.

While I support the legislative approach that Senator Dodd and Congressman Frank are taking to help restructure mortgages and keep millions of families in their homes, today’s news of serious continued weakness in our labor markets reinforces that we need to be ready to go further. I believe we must stand ready for the government to purchase at risk mortgages. We also need a second stimulus of at least $30 billion to help states and localities fight the foreclosure crisis in their communities.

Here's the statement the campaign of Sen. Barack Obama. (D-Ill.):

OBAMA ON JOB LOSS FIGURES: Bush-McCain approachs tells strugglingAmericans 'you're on your own'

“`Today we learned that the economic crisis continues to spread to more American families, as we have now lost 232,000 jobs this year and the unemployment rate has reached its highest level since immediately after Katrina. This bad news is just the latest evidence that Washington needs fundamental change because it has failed the American people. For millions of unemployed Americans, the American Dream has been slipping away while their government has put special interests ahead of their interests. It’s time to turn the page on a Bush-McCain approach that tells Americans who are struggling that ‘you’re on your own’ unless you have a lobbyist in Washington, because we’re not going to strengthen our economy unless we come together on behalf of our common prosperity. Instead of doing nothing for out-of-work Americans, we need a second stimulus that extends unemployment insurance and helps communities that have been hit hard by this recession. Instead of tolerating decades of rising inequality, we need to grow the middle class by investing in millions of new Green Jobs and rebuilding our crumbling infrastructure. And after decades of flawed trade agreements and tax breaks that ship our jobs overseas, we need to invest in companies that create jobs right here at home,” said Senator Barack Obama.

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Comments

Oh....Now he wants to change his tune. It would certainly be nice if he didn't wait for headlines to know there is a problem. He is the one who said the government isn't there to help the people. His own state has the 4th worst forclosure rate in the country. Up 210% in forclosures over last year. Obviously he is not even aware of what is going on in his own state. Funny how McBush calls the Bear Sterns mess a "lifeline" instead of a what it really is...a bailout. His policies are NO different than Bushs. Up till now this man hasn't even so much as "touched" us with any idea on the economy, and today, after reading the newspaper, he has awakened.
Bush got us here...McBush will continue it.


That's 80,000 votes for Barack or Hillary, and none for John McCain. $30 billion for Bear Stearns and $4 a gallon for working Americans. 4000+ American dead and another birthday party for Osama bin Laden. What a nightmare the GOP hath wrought. How can their supporters face their countrymen without shame?


The country is at the cusp of historic change. Will we get aboard the wagon train heading west into the land of hope, or will we stay home and take our Prozac to manage our life struggle....
http://thefiresidepost.com/2008/02/20/america-hope-or-prozac-nation/


Gee.. I'm not sure if McCain can spell "economy", much less fix it!

I think he's too stuck on his past (war hero); which in my opinion is not the most healthy ingredient(s) for the economic recipe!


Mr. James can hardly contain his enthusiasm in reporting a downturn in the economy. Is this the same economy that has cost Tribuners more than 100 jobs and a steep decline in ad revenues? Cheer on, guys. Anything to make the media happy.


When will the media start reporting the facts: 12 years of Republican economics resulted in recession. 8 years of Democratic economics resulted in greatest economy in history. 8 years of Republican economics resulted in recession. There is a pattern here. No matter what the media and Republicans say, giving the rich more tax cuts and causing debt and deficits puts us in a recession. It takes a Democrat, making the tax code more progressive, and eliminating debt and deficits, that gives us a strong economy. That is what history tells us, you can't change history.


It's so unfortunate that John McCain has become such a tragic self-caricature. To believe that his "more of the same" economic policies will in any way benefit the United States of America is such a sad delusion. That he has flipped so often on so many different issues, that he has demonstrated a complete lack of understanding of economic issues is sad. A closer look at this man, from his disastrous training history as an airman to his constant water carrying for a man who savaged his wife, his child and accused he himself of mental derangement implies a soul that is troubled, and, more specifically, lacking the kind of spine we're going to need to disengage from the planned misfortune the current administration plunged our country into in seven short years.

For a country that became the greatest nation in history because of such a pervasive and powerful middle class, considering electing a man who stands for the continued redistribution of middle class wealth upward is ludicrous.

Rev. William Hayashi


Okay, one of us is responsible for this mess, right? Mainstream media and its Republican hacks posing as journalists will make that clear to all, we're sure.


Nothing a tax cut for Paris Hilton couldn't fix.


Why is it so hard for all of these Harvard educated economists to realize that when the price of fuel skyrockets out of control, that businesses, farms, and families are going to get hurt really bad?

Add outrageous credit terms on cards and mortgages, a war that has broken the bank, and a malaise, and we enter some scary times.

As the 1% gets richer, the American middle class is disappearing very fast. The "giveaway" that is coming will simply go to pay for the high cost of gas, credit, and basics. Not much of a stimulus, except for oil producing nations, the big banks, and companies in China.

Buckle up. This is going to be a bumpy ride.


Are we in a recession ? It's gone way beyond that at this point. Meanwhile, while families are struggling, Bush and his friends in high places have helped the investment market with free money and bailouts, special legal protection and a pointless war which has bankrupted the US.
Is ignorance really bliss ?


Let me get this straight, the man who's entire resume consists of "community organizer" or the former First Lady who didn't have a security clearance to even discuss the economy are supposed to be more qualified to fix the economy than the former Chairman of the Senate Commerce Committee? No dice. If we need any communities organized we'll call you guys up, though. Unfortunately hope won't fix our economy.


" It is imperative to restore the economic foundations for America's families and small businesses." - John McCain


I haven't heard squat about how you would change anything from the Current Occupant's (AKA The Boob) approach. Were you also a C- student?


Who profited off the sub-prime crisis? Why the democrats biggest financiers, of course.

On the campaign trail, Democrats Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama have proposed cracking down on the predatory lending that they say helped fuel the foreclosure crisis.
Both presidential candidates, however, rely on close advisers who had oversight roles at financial institutions that went bust because of subprime loans.

Clinton's campaign manager, Maggie Williams, earned at least $175,000 serving from 2000-07 on the board of Long Island-based Delta Financial, which filed for bankruptcy last year after a history of high-cost loans to low-income borrowers, according to public records.

Obama's national finance chairwoman, Penny Pritzker, was chairwoman of the board of a Chicago-area bank in 1993 when it adopted a subprime business strategy that regulators say ultimately led it to collapse in 2001.

Superior's board and managers "ignored sound risk-management principles and failed to adequately oversee Superior's operations," the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation's (FDIC) Inspector General concluded in 2002.


I am surprised that it took the job market so long to catch up with the slowing economy. But hiring usually lags behind both economic down turns and up swings. The major slump in housing will continue and this will have an effect on construction jobs. Major problems are still out there with the sub-prime credit mess that will probably spill over into harder to get financing and problems in the credit card industry. None of the candidates, Obama, Clinton or McCain, have a strategy to pull out of the mess with their usual political speeches. Fasten your seat belts ladies and gentlemen, we are in for a bumpy ride.


Yep as Uncle Ben put it " We might be in a recession". I think you can take might out of the preceeding sentence.


"Despite today's news, the Democrats will continue to advance their anti-growth agenda. The American people cannot afford the Democrats and their economic leadership. Washington must not be an obstacle to economic growth and robust job creation."

This spoken by switch lane mccain. This from the man who follows lock-step with the disasters of Bush. This from the man who hasn't so much as whispered ANY ideas on the economy. This from the man who feels the most important thing is a stroll down memory lane with pictures of uncle Bob and stories of his English teacher. This from the man whos own state ranks 4th worst hit with forclosures. This from a man whos state sits at 210% increase over last year in forclosures.
This man is nothing more than 4 more years.


You'd never believe this by our evening dinner yesterday at Outback [in AZ] -- PACKED mostly families w/ young kids! I much prefer to eat at home especially steak -- as USDA 'choice' cuts at Fry's are as low as $3.88 LB. alternating weekly from rib-eye; T-bone etc. Our meal: $50 (!) w/ alcoholic beverages & tip. It's nice for us empty nesters but families?!! Are these people eating on credit? Hmm...When we raised young kids in '80's we very rarely 'ate out.' Evidentally this generation expects to eat out as the norm rather than the exception. Dump the kids in daycare drive an SUV and out-to-eat -- mom works for this?


Bill Hussein, so you're saying you'd rather have a candidate whose financier was PERSONALLY responsible for a huge share of those foreclosures? As Clinton's and Obama's were?

Sorry that you're not paying attention, as usual, but McCain has proposed several ideas for righting the economy including lending industry incentives and regulation. Just because you're eyes and ears are shut doesn't mean nothing is happeing Mr. Hussein.

I'm very glad to be supporting a candidate whose campaign lenders weren't a large part of the subprime problem as Maggie Williams and ESPECIALLY Penny Pritzker were.

p.s. Why hasn't Penny returned her tax cut? Or is she not "rich?"


Democrats are dumbos. They want gay monsters to break up mommy and daddy. Republicanz make me happy. I'm hungry. Please Republican magic men feed me some more lies Mommy and Daddy don't work no more and they are always fighting and crying about Democrat monsters taking away our house and letting poor people live here instead.


BillR, I was in AZ last year and a lot of those foreclosures are locals and snowbirds who bought golf resort properties on ARMs and thought they could make a bundle renting them out. At least this might curb the sprawl for awhile.

You're correct about the "bailout". God forbid a middle income kid should have healthcare, but let's send tax dollars to WS millionaires.


The unemployment rate under Bill Clinton ranged as high as 6.8 percent and was 5.8 percent four years into his presidency, without any media gnashing of the teeth. The unemployment rate under GW Bush has hovered around 5 percent or lower except for the bump it got after 9-11 with the economic downturn that catastrophic event caused. Clinton exprienced no comparable disasters in his presidency.


"Are we in a recession ? It's gone way beyond that at this point. Meanwhile, while families are struggling, Bush and his friends in high places have helped the investment market with free money and bailouts, special legal protection and a pointless war which has bankrupted the US.
Is ignorance really bliss ?

Posted by: Sweet Sue | April 4, 2008 10:54 AM "

So you're angry that the government is trying to help those 100 million or so Americans who are responsibly trying to save for retirement through the "investment markets"?

You must be counting on Social Security to "secure' "your" retirement.

We'll the younger generation (40 and under) can no longer and should no longer depend on the government to provide for them.

That evil corporate America and all of its employees account for 1/3 of all households in this country, you say screw them?

Have fun with your Social Security check, I'm taking it upon myself to provide for my own well being.


p.s. Why hasn't Penny returned her tax cut? Or is she not "rich?"

Posted by: Jeff | April 4, 2008 12:08 PM

We've already gone over this Jeff. If you send back your tax return to the IRS they will simply return the money back to you. Stop making stupid statements.


Wow, amazing all the ignorant people on here demanding government control and intervention on everything from mortgages to 'equal jobs'.

Why did we even fight the Revolutionary War?

People wake up, we are becoming more than Socialists, we are becoming Communists.

The reality is Americans continue to ignorantly attack government (ie like the 1st poster) for their problems, only begging for more government control, and that the government 'fix things'. You people JUST DO NOT GET IT.

Welcome to the future of heavy government control, standard pay regardless of work ethic and skill, and very very high taxes to pay for it all....Marx was right that democracy wil always be trumped by insecure people that want total government control to 'feel secure'!


It’s time to turn the page on a Bush-McCain approach that tells Americans who are struggling that ‘you’re on your own’ - Barry O

What's wrong with Americans thinking that you are on your own? That's the only way you will get people to fight to better themselves. Whatever happened to working hard to achieve your goals in this country? Why is it that when times get tough, it has to be the government to bail everyone out? Whatever happened to pulling up your bootstraps and wading thru the tough times on your own? The Socialists formerly known as Democrats badly want the economy to tank and taxes to go up so they can have more people dependant on the government. That is their way to get everyone, not just the poor and minorities, in their pocket. They want people to come crawling for more government and handouts, so you become dependant on them The last thing Barry O or Hillary want is for people to be able to work themselves out of a jam.

And to those who complain about the tax cuts for the wealthy, how do you tell someone they don't pay their fair share when they are being taxes at 35%?? It is un-American to expect people who have worked hard and been blessed with wealth to have to redistribute their money to everyone else.

Up until 10 years ago - Work hard and you can achieve your dreams

Now (The Barry-O and Hillary Way) - Where's mine? The rich and the government owe me big time!!

Disgusting


"DOT COM SPEAKS"

OH WHERE OH WHERE DID ALL OUR JOBS GO, OH WHERE OH WHERE DID THEY GO?

AT&T
VERIZON WIRELESS
J.P. MORGAN /DISCOVER CARD

OH WHERE OH WHERE DID THEY GO.

QWEST COMMUNICATIONS
"THE CHAIRMAN"
OH WHERE OH WHERE DID THEY GO. MATHEW PACHMAN, VICKIE ISEMAN.
OH WHERE OH WHERE DID THEY GO.

"BLACKWATER" OH WHERE OH WHERE DID THEY GO.
HALLIBURTON, UNICAL, EXXON, BERNS & STEARNS OH WHERE OH WHERE DID THEY GO.

"ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION" RAIDS ON AMERICA, OH WHERE OH WHERE DID THEIR JOBS GO.

WHERE DID DOT COM GO WHEN GEORGE BUSH AND THE FAB FIVE FREDDIES CAME INTO OFFICE?

OH WHERE OH WHERE DID THEY GO. MR. PRESIDENT! MR. VICE PRESIDENT. MR. SECRETARY OF TREASURY THIS MONTH, THIS YEAR.

OH WHERE OH WHERE DID THEY GO.

MEXICO, INDIA, PAKISTAN, DUBAI, EUROPE, BRITAIN, JUST EVERYWHERE BUT HERE!

"BREATHTAKING ABUSE OF THE CONSTITUTION"


The unemployment rate under Bill Clinton ranged as high as 6.8 percent and was 5.8 percent four years into his presidency, without any media gnashing of the teeth.
Posted by: Jackson
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Jackson, you must be a professional. Never have I seen the truth used as a lie so effectively. Unemployment at the end of Reagan/Bush was indeed as high as 6.8%. And yes, Clinton did indeed lower it to 5.8%. In fact, Clinton lowered the rate of unemployment every year he was in office.

http://mediamatters.org/static/images/item/hannity-20060323-jobs.jpg


The last thing Barry O or Hillary want is for people to be able to work themselves out of a jam.
Disgusting
Posted by: Steve
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You must be outraged then at the Bear Srearns bailout. But wait, I don't see a single word of criticism about George Bush.


"What's wrong with Americans thinking that you are on your own? That's the only way you will get people to fight to better themselves. Whatever happened to working hard to achieve your goals in this country? Why is it that when times get tough, it has to be the government to bail everyone out? Whatever happened to pulling up your bootstraps and wading thru the tough times on your own?"

Steve's Ideal President: Herbert Hoover.

Steve's vision of what America should be:

http://www.picturehistory.com/images/products/0/0/8/prod_879.jpg

http://varifrank.com/images/acoffee.jpg

http://rethinkcollegepark.net/blog/wp-content/uploads/2007/04/hooverville.jpg


but McCain has proposed several ideas for righting the economy including lending industry incentives and regulation.
Posted by: Jeff | April 4, 2008 12:08 PM

He might have told you on the phone but he certainly didn't tell Americans. Surely you're not suggesting that generic rhetoric like...I will bring jobs back to America...or I'll use incentives ( to who? for what? who pays?) or I believe we need to have home owners and lenders talk? Thats all generic pander talk...wheres the beef?


To Bruce Y., the unemployment rate was 6.8 percent in October, 1993, which was 9 months into Slick Willie's presidency, plenty of time to fix the economy. And Monica wasn't even around to distract him...or was she?


Did anyone read the details of the jobs report and yet gov't was able to expand their job base.

I also love the comparions that Hillary and Boy Wonder keep comparing the Republicans to Herbert Hoover. Let's look at the facts. Hoover passed Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act which restricted trade and then caused other countrie to raise their tarriffs. Also, Hoover raised the highest personnal income tax rate from 25% to 63% - these were causes of turning arecession into a depression.

Which of the Presidential canidates sound like Hoover?

Paul,

When will learn some economic history?

"8 years of Democratic economics resulted in greatest economy in history" - Bill Clinton inherits a recovering economy, is in office during the PC/Internet boom, and leaves behind an economy that is 39 days from recession,

"8 years of Republican economics resulted in recession. " President Bush inherits the economy about to go into a recession and the nation suffers its worse attack since Pearl Harbor and the attack hits it financial district, the sloppy accounting of 1999-2000 comes home to roost with EnRon, etc... and it was the tax cuts that have led to the past six years of economic growth.

Jackson,

You are 100% wrong. You can donate your refund check or any other check to the US Treasury.

Bruce Y,

Tell the rest of the story of the Reagan-Bush economy, like the beginning and see what President Reagan inherited from the Peanut Farmer.


Bruce Y,
Tell the rest of the story of the Reagan-Bush economy, like the beginning and see what President Reagan inherited from the Peanut Farmer.
Posted by: Terry
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Be careful what you ask for.
Peanut Farmer's deficit at end of term - $74 billion
Cowboy's deficit at end of term - $155 billion
http://www.uuforum.org/Images/deficit.gif
Peanut Farmer's debt at end of term - $907 billion
Cowboy's debt at end of term - $2.6 trillion
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/pd/histdebt/histdebt_histo4.htm
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Reagan was a disaster. He made things seem rosy, but underneath, the economic rot began. He was like a man who got a bunch of credit cards and then maxed them all out, leaving his debt for future generations. Your great grandchildren will be still paying the interest on his fiscal irresponsibility.


To Bruce Y., the unemployment rate was 6.8 percent in October, 1993, which was 9 months into Slick Willie's presidency, plenty of time to fix the economy.
Posted by: Jackson
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Hey, I already said he inherited that from Reagan's voodoo economics. His economic package helped turn it around. Go ahead, click on the link. Don't be afraid. All you will see is that the Reagan Myth is the Big Lie.
http://mediamatters.org/static/images/item/hannity-20060323-jobs.jpg


Bruce Y,

The Peanut Farmer invented the misery index. Check what interest rates, unemployment, and inflation were when Peanut Farmer left the White House. President Reagan turned this economy around.

As far as deficits, yes they have risen, but measure the deificit in the true form, not dollars, but as a % of GDP.

Clinton inherited a recovering economy, not an economy on the downturn like he left Bush43.


President Reagan turned this economy around.
Posted by: Terry-
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As I said before, he did it by spending like a drunken sailor. I can end my financial troubles and move into a mansion by robbing the treasury. I can have my children pay the fine. That will win me your respect, but I wouldn't have any self-respect left.


BruceY,

His spending was building the nation's military back to where it belongs. That was due to the tax cuts. BTW, fed gov't revenues nearly doubled during his 8 years, which goes to show that tax cuts grow the economy and generates more revenue.

Do you really believe a Carter-Mondale presidency would have turned the economy around?


His spending was building the nation's military back to where it belongs.
Posted by: Terry
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No, he squandered our treasury on things like SDS and nuclear missles. SDS, even if it worked, would not have prevented 9/11. What the military needs are trained professionals and state of the art attack forces, not high tech gew-gaws that make companies like General Electric billions of dollars that give industry the illusion of growth. Had Reagan spent that money on infrastucture, things like bridges and levees, then I would have some respect for him. Instead he gave it all to his cronies and cut the social net that could have saved the less fortunate. Now we have a homeless problem that is becoming epidemic. That's Reagan's real legacy.


We have a homeless problem now, 1 in 2008, because of President Reagan?

You mean President Clinton couldn't solve this problem?

The reason homelessness went up in the 1980's was not th economy, but because of the rights of the "mentally challenged" that they could not be institutionalized.

As far as Carter and the military, I had family members in the military while the Peanut Farmer was their commander-in-chief and they personnaly could not wait for their time to be up. Carter ruined the military.

How many more homeless do you thiink there would have been with Jimmy Carter economic policies - with his high unemployment and high mortgage interest rates.


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