by Mark Silva
If there seems to be a confident air about John McCain these days, look at these numbers.
In matchups with either of the two Democrats battling for their party's presidential nomination, McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee from Arizona, has held rock steady in rolling tracking surveys conducted by the Gallup Poll for some time now.
Democrat Barack Obama and McCain run dead even in the newest results posted today -- at 45 percent. Democrat Hillary Clinton also holds a statistical tie with McCain. Gallup's track of the contest between Obama and Clinton have shown more fluctuation, but a similar trend.
Voter preferences have held "remarkably steady,'' Gallup reports of its surveys of no fewer than 1,000 adults each day. The latest results, from April 1-5, come from a survey of 4,403 registered voters, with a possible margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
This is quite a launch platform for the summer campaign.





Comments
Further evidence that the Jr. Senator's campaign is harming Democratic party chances to take back the White House and Congress in the Fall.
Wanna read more?
http://www.thecityedition.com/
ages/Archive/Winter08/2008
Election.html
Before the kids attack again--please read that. Make informed comments here.
Posted by: geraldinetoo | April 7, 2008 12:11 PM
What it comes down to is trust and McCain exudes it much more to voters than the bickering liberal twins.
Posted by: Jeff | April 7, 2008 12:34 PM
No surprise at all.
The electorate sees all the babbling about change as a huge load of manure. There's nothing whatsoever in Clinton's or Oprahma's backgrounds to back it up. They're both wedded to the status quo.
Posted by: MJ | April 7, 2008 12:34 PM
And which junior senator is at fault?
I'm inclined to blame the one who talks up McCain at every opportunity yet can't seem to manage her way out of a wet paper bag if her campaign management is anything to go by.
Posted by: DBX | April 7, 2008 12:36 PM
Obama, can and should win. And the whole country knows that. Republicans have organized their party and Mc-SAME is relaxing and gathering evidence for his NO LONGER uphill battle. Hillary has every right to campaign for as loooong as she wants. The question remains, why? She has damaged Obama's campaign with the Wright stuff, but sunk her own ship with blatant premeditated LIES. Women are ONLY voting for her because she is female. They have no other respectable reason for voting for her.
Posted by: Keith Lifetime Southsider | April 7, 2008 12:44 PM
Silly article, not in line with anything meaningful. I just wish the person publishing this article would attach their name - so their credibility were at stake.
Posted by: Lovemycountry | April 7, 2008 12:45 PM
McBush "should" be enjoying a comfortable lead. The republicans love the "blood letting" on the democratic side and this is the best they can do? When McBush comes under scrutiny, he will dive like he is loosing his 6th plane.
Posted by: bill "Hussein" r. | April 7, 2008 1:00 PM
By golly geraldinetoo, it sure is good that you're pullin' all those levers and keepin' us all informed about the latest slander campaign from the muslim hussein Obama. I don't know what we'd do if every single Trib blog item today didn't have two or three tidbits of your wisdom and links to important websites! Thank you so much for this information!!!
Posted by: Grandblvd "Hussein" 03 | April 7, 2008 1:28 PM
McSame DON'T stand a chance in November, you can play all the numbers games you want to now, but the only one that will count is the one in November and the American people are SICK & TIRED of Republican BS! The next Prez will be a Democrat!
Posted by: luvwknd | April 7, 2008 1:42 PM
John W McBush just can't get his facts straight on the Iraq war.
McCain, who once had to be corrected by faithful sidekick Joe Lieberman as he was performing one of his gaffes during a recent Middle East visit, once again displayed his penchant for misspeaking about the war during his Sunday appearance on Fox News Sunday.
"McCain blunders on Iraq, again: Confuses Iraqi cleric with Prime Minister on ceasefire deal"
04/06/2008 @ 3:08 pm
Filed by David Edwards and Chris Tackett
"During an appearance on Fox News Sunday, John McCain again repeated the false claim that Muqtada al-Sadr declared the ceasefire in Basra last week and said he thought the Iraqi army was performing well".
"It was al-Sadr that declared the ceasefire, not Maliki," said McCain. "With respect, I don’t think Sadr would have declared the ceasefire if he thought he was winning. Most times in history, military engagements, the winning side doesn’t declare the ceasefire. The second point is, overall, the Iraqi military performed pretty well. … The military is functioning very effectively."
"As the blog, Think Progress notes, "it was members of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s government who brokered the ceasefire, to which Sadr agreed. Experts agree that Sadr’s influence was strengthened — rather than diminished — by the Basra battle."
"It's not the first time McCain has erred when talking about Iraq. Last month, McCain wrongly said Iran trains Al-Qaeda members".
http://rawstory.com/news/2008/McCain_blunders_on_Iraq_again_Confuses_0406.html
Posted by: John E | April 7, 2008 1:48 PM
What it comes down to is trust and McCain exudes it much more to voters than the bickering liberal twins.
Posted by: Jeff | April 7, 2008 12:34 PM
Jeffy,
You actually believe that America is going to give John W McBush a third term?
HAHAHAHA!!!
Here's some "Crooked-Talk" from Grandpa Munster McCain himself:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ioy90nF2anI
Posted by: John E | April 7, 2008 1:52 PM
Before the kids attack again--please read that. Make informed comments here.
Posted by: geraldinetoo | April 7, 2008 12:11 PM
"MJ"..or whatever else you call yourself today.
You're not fooling anyone on here and if you're so confident in your opinion why don't you just stick to one post name like everyone else does?
Posted by: John E | April 7, 2008 2:02 PM
I find it most fascinating that the article is written the way it is. I am an analyst, so I know the game..."tell me what you want to hear and I will present it in that way to prove it."
As an Independent, I'm not supporting anyone currently, but the numbers tell me that Obama is the steady one. If you look from the beginning of the graph in mid-March, McCain started at 47% to Obama's 44%. They are now even. It could be argued that Obama has in fact closed the gap on McCain, or that McCain has not faired well over the last weeks and is dropping in the National Election Polls.
A similar arguement could be made for Clinton, but less so because the numbers show, she has also slipped.
Anyway, the point I wanted to make was that numbers don't usually lie, but analysts and writers are payed to make them say what they want them to say.
Posted by: Mike | April 7, 2008 2:05 PM
Swamp, I know this doesn't help Oprahma like your mandate demands but there's a GREAT article on politico.com today about how a democrat hate-machine that was created to attack and discredit McCain has run out of money.
This shows that there ARE still some real human beings who have a conscience in the democratic party and they're not all just frothing-at-the-mouth leftist shills like Bill Hussein.
The article accurately states that some of the money that would have gone into this lying and hate machine is being spent creating lies and hate in the democrats primary battle (George Soros, for instance, is putting most of his money into the Oprahma campaign), but the fact that everyday democrat donors are staying away from this human garbage is certainly a good sign.
While many democrats will not be voting for McCain, they don't want to be a part of a shameless attack on someone like McCain who they see as a good man.
When the even more important swing voters have to make that choice they'll line up with McCain rather than either of the two lying weasals who are trying to destroy each other right now.
Read all abou it at the politico: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0408/9406.html
Posted by: Jeff | April 7, 2008 2:15 PM
The why is Hillary still running question is pretty obvious.
She can still win. Obama is not popular enough to have decisively captured the nomination.
Anyhow, from the look of things, Mccain is running on character, all other things are second to that. It's easily seen by how he touts his character and charisma over elaboration of policy issues. Of course, the same can be said of the early non-politician like Obama (He seems more politician than agent of change now).
Posted by: Skeptical | April 7, 2008 2:15 PM
The only place where one can call McCain steady is in his polling results. He is a hothead belligerent who has gone ballistic in public attacking foreign dignateries, the press, other senators and congressmen, and even his wife. We need a leader who can remain calm when under attack, or when things aren't looking good. We don't need one who flies off the handle or one who cries when under the gun.
Posted by: Javalation | April 7, 2008 2:26 PM
"1000 PEOPLE POLLED POLL SPEAKS FOR ALL AMERICA"
SO WHAT IF 1 MILLION TO 200,000 IN THIS STATE OR THAT STATE.
SO WHAT IF 2 MILLION TO 300,000 FOR "that woman" IN THIS STATE OR THAT STATE.
SO WHAT IF 20,000 HISPANIC VOTES ARE CAGED IN THIS STATE OR THAT STATE.
SO WHAT IF 40,000 VOTES GO UNCOUNTED IN CALIFORNIA FOR "THAT WOMAN OR THAT MAN" IN THAT STATE.
IT'S HAS TO OUR WAY OR IT'S GOING TO BE A "BERNS AND STEARNS" IN THIS STATE AND THAT STATE.
NO IMMUNITY, NO "BORDER SECURITY, ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY, AND THEN IMMIGRATION REFORM.
POLLS SMOLLS, ONE THOUSAND PEOPLE SPOKE AND WHAT THEY SAY GO!
NO CHANGE FOR YOU.
NO HOPE FOR YOU
NO AMERICA FOR YOU!
JUST A "REAL ID"!
Posted by: roger morris | April 7, 2008 2:27 PM
When the even more important swing voters have to make that choice they'll line up with McCain rather than either of the two lying weasals who are trying to destroy each other right now.
Posted by: Jeff | April 7, 2008 2:15 PM
College Republican Jeffy,
There will be 527's from both sides this fall in fact the GOPer's usually (swiftboat) depend totally on them and I expect this election will be no different that the rest.
If you think Independents are going to vote for Mr 100 Years in Iraq, Bomb Bomb Iran, you're fooling yourself...
http://photobucket.com/mediadetail/?media=http%3A%2F%2Fi260.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fii19%2FSLdkos%2Fmcsame.jpg&searchTerm=john%20mccain&pageOffset=2
Why don't you wait until the Dems actually have a candidate and then we'll all get to see how bad John W McBush is doing.
Posted by: John E | April 7, 2008 2:43 PM
What it comes down to is trust and McCain exudes it much more to voters than the bickering liberal twins.
Posted by: Jeff | April 7, 2008 12:34 PM
Wait until the voter see him debate Obama. It will be like a one legged man in an a%s kicking contest. An OLD one legged man. Bring it on. McCain is gonna get it handed to him. With all due respect.
Posted by: Logic Prisoner | April 7, 2008 3:18 PM
McCain will make a wonderful President.
McCain 08
Posted by: Bushman | April 7, 2008 3:21 PM
McCain 08!!!!!
Posted by: Dr. Stranglove | April 7, 2008 3:22 PM
Jeff:
Thanks for the link. Besides the critical Swing voters, a few Democrats are going to jump parties rather than vote for the corrupt Cook County Machine hack Oprahma. Also Ralph Nader is certain to shave a point or two off of Oprahma's support... and the Democrats could very well lose yet another election they should easily win.
Posted by: MJ | April 7, 2008 3:25 PM
Vote McCain in 08.
The surge- best policy offered to date.
Posted by: TheLeninSisters | April 7, 2008 3:28 PM
Posted by: Bushman | April 7, 2008 3:21 PM
Posted by: Dr. Stranglove | April 7, 2008 3:22 PM
Posted by: TheLeninSisters
"MJ",
Hey you psychopath, you're not fooling anyone on here, we all know that these posts are from YOU.
Posted by: John E | April 7, 2008 4:20 PM
Since the alias "the Lenin Sisters" brought up policy, here's an analysis from CNNmoney/Fortune that says John McCain's healthcare plan (the one that eliminates the tax break for employer-funded insurance) is the only one that has a snowball's chance of passing and working.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/10/news/economy/tully_healthcare.fortune/
Logic prisoner, I agree. Oprahma, who couldn't even decisively beat crazy Alan Keyes in a debate, will get his a%$ thoroughly handed to him by McCain. Hillary might be able to do a little damage, though, since she's not bought and paid for by Blagojevich/Rezko/Stroger.
John E, an actual thoughtful analysis that doesn't count on lies and namecalling (at least this part of it): "There will be 527's from both sides this fall." Nothing to disagree with there! Good job, John!
Posted by: Jeff | April 7, 2008 4:37 PM
Vote McCain in 08.
The surge- best policy offered to date.
Posted by: TheLeninSisters | April 7, 2008 3:28 PM
The surge is working? HAHAHAHA!!!!
McCain has demonstrated over and over again that he does not understand even the most basic of facts about his signature issue, the Iraq War.
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/03/18/a_mccain_gaffe_in_jordan.html
Sen. John McCain, traveling in the Middle East to promote his foreign policy expertise, misidentified in remarks Tuesday which broad category of Iraqi extremists are allegedly receiving support from Iran.
He said several times that Iran, a predominately Shiite country, was supplying the mostly Sunni militant group, al-Qaeda...
McCain said he and two Senate colleagues traveling with him continue to be concerned about Iranian operatives "taking al-Qaeda into Iran, training them and sending them back."
Pressed to elaborate, McCain said it was "common knowledge and has been reported in the media that al-Qaeda is going back into Iran and receiving training and are coming back into Iraq from Iran, that's well known. And it's unfortunate." A few moments later, Sen. Joseph Lieberman, standing just behind McCain, stepped forward and whispered in the presidential candidate's ear. McCain then said: "I'm sorry, the Iranians are training extremists, not al-Qaeda."
Al Qaeda in Iraq is of course entirely dominated by Sunni extremists who view all Shiites as heretics. The rise of Al Qaeda in Iraq and everything it has done there has been shaped by it's contempt for Shiites. The course of the insurgency, down to and including the "Sunni Awakening", has reflected that fanatical hostility that Al Qaeda brought to bear inside Iraq. Iranian involvement in financing and supporting Shiite militias in Iraq came partly in reaction to the rise of Al Qaeda in Iraq.
This isn't just a minor slip. This betrays a profound lack of foreign policy expertise, a shallowness so extreme that if the remark had been made by Barack Obama, say, it would have called into question his viability as a presidential candidate.
So you should expect the "serious" thinkers of the traditional media to dismiss the gaffe as 'trivial'. We are not allowed even to consider the possibility that John McCain is a foreign policy lightweight...not with all those splendid crazy Neocon foreign policy advisers he's assembled....the same nuts who worked for BushCo and gave us the Iraq disaster.
http://thinkprogress.org/wonkroom/2008/03/17/mccain-advisers/
Think Progress reported that McCain made the same crazyassertion on Hugh Hewitt's program.
http://thinkprogress.org/2008/03/18/mccain-iran-al-qaeda/
Posted by: lylepink | April 7, 2008 4:46 PM
"Since the alias "the Lenin Sisters" brought up policy, here's an analysis from CNNmoney/Fortune that says John McCain's healthcare plan (the one that eliminates the tax break for employer-funded insurance) is the only one that has a snowball's chance of passing and working."
Unless you are old or sick, in which case McCain's plan pretty much leaves you on the ice flow to die.
Healthcare for all! (except those who really need it)
"The problem with McCain's approach - and it is a huge problem - is that McCain ventures so far toward total laissez-faire liberty that he risks leaving the poor and sick behind. Here's why. Perhaps his most drastic proposal is allowing the same insurance products to be sold across state lines. That seems to make sense, and maybe it does: Look what interstate banking has done for pricing and choice in financial services. But in health care, the upheaval would be so brutal that it scares even the most ardent free-marketer. Many states have some form of what policy wonks call "community rating." Under pure community rating, insurers must charge all customers the same premium no matter whether they're 20 or 55, or whether they have cancer or are models of good health. McCain is targeting community rating for good reason. It forces the young and healthy to pay far more than their actual cost by making them subsidize the elderly and sick. Like the mandated benefits, it's pushed millions of Americans in their 20s to drop their health insurance.
But under the McCain plan, states with no restrictions - Pennsylvania, for example - could sell policies for 25-year-olds that cost around $1,200 a year, one-third the price in New York. Young New Yorkers would drop their plans in favor of Pennsylvania providers, forcing New York insurers to jack up premiums for people in their 50s or early 60s, who need those rich, community-rated plans that cover as many procedures as possible - but who no longer benefit from the excessive premiums paid by the youngsters. It gets worse. Anyone with cancer, diabetes, or other pre-existing conditions will see their premiums multiply too."
Hey, the rich and healthy are the only one's whose health matters, right Jeff?
Posted by: Lois | April 7, 2008 5:53 PM
From Mid-East Quarterly:
"In late 1991 or 1992, discussions in Sudan between al Qaeda and Iranian operatives led to an informal agreement to cooperate in providing support—even if only training—for actions carried out primarily against Israel and the United States. Not long afterward, senior al Qaeda operatives and trainers traveled to Iran to receive training in explosives. In the fall of 1993, another such delegation went to the Bekaa Valley in Lebanon for further training in explosives as well as in intelligence and security. Bin Ladin reportedly showed particular interest in learning how to use truck bombs such as the one that had killed 241 U.S. Marines in Lebanon in 1983. The relationship between al Qaeda and Iran demonstrated that Sunni-Shia divisions did not necessarily pose an insurmountable barrier to cooperation in terrorist operations."
Someone is a foreign policy lightweight, but it's not John McCain. It's you, Lyle Pink Floyd. Here's a link with citation to 9/11 Commission Report: http://www.meforum.org/article/670
In 1996, after the Taliban seized power, Osama bin Laden relocated to Afghanistan where he established a number of terrorist training camps. Al-Qaeda training attracted a steady stream of young Islamists, many of whom transited Iran. While Iranian border officials normally stamp passports, they made an exception for many Al-Qaeda terrorists. The 9-11 Commission explained how this facilitated Al-Qaeda operations.
Clearly Lyle's statement that "Al Qaeda in Iraq is of course entirely dominated by Sunni extremists who view all Shiites as heretics" is total BS. It's been demonstrated hundreds of times that Muslim extremists of both stripes will put aside there differences to fight what they see as a common enemy, Western Decadence, the same way Catholics and Protestants would fight together here against an enemy they see as evil, like Nazism or Fascism.
Posted by: Jeff | April 7, 2008 6:38 PM
You're not reading the entire article, Lois. Under Clinton or Obama's healthplans the poor and non-rich would be left with such a substandard quality of "universal care" that they might as well have no insurance at all. Read the article, McCain's plan is the only one that deals with the problem of escalating costs that don't impact the consumer. That's why Fortune endorses it as the best of the three plans.
Save the "leaving you on the ice flow" arguments for dailykos. Everyone here knows that any universal plan would go bankrupt and not be accepted at hospitals faster than Rod Blagojevich's Illinois healthcare for kids. Let's talk substance and not rhetoric here.
Posted by: Jeff | April 7, 2008 7:02 PM
Save the "leaving you on the ice flow" arguments for dailykos. Everyone here knows that any universal plan would go bankrupt and not be accepted at hospitals faster than Rod Blagojevich's Illinois healthcare for kids. Let's talk substance and not rhetoric here.
Posted by: Jeff | April 7, 2008 7:02 PM
Jeffy,
McCain is in so far over his head when it comes to policy that it's almost laughable...
I can't wait to watch the old man stumble in the debates and his healthcare poilcy is so god awful that yesterday his own advisors couldn't completely explain it during a press conference and they had to say that they would have to do more research on McCain's own policy.....THESE ARE MCCAIN'S OWN PEOPLE, and even they can't make since of McCain's policies!!!!!
Posted by: John E | April 7, 2008 9:45 PM
More like McCain's flat-lining. (And really -- can I get a pulse from the man?)
As Mike the analyst said, the perspective the journalist takes here is subjective.
Obama is gaining and will prevail.
Posted by: New Nashvillian | April 8, 2008 11:14 AM