by Aamer Madhani
A new report released today by some of the same experts who advised the Iraq Study Group offers a pretty grim prognostication for the future of Iraq.
The paper authored for the U.S. Institute of Peace by Daniel Serwer, the organization's vice president, and Sam Parker, a program officer, comes just ahead of Gen. David Petraeus' and Amb. Ryan Crocker's testimony on Capitol Hill on Tuesday and Wednesday.
The authors conclude that political progress has been "so slow, halting and superficial, and social and political fragmentation so pronounced, that the US is no closer to being able to leave Iraq than it was a year ago. Lasting political development could take five to ten years of full, unconditional U.S. commitment to Iraq."
The reports also offers some detail on how the U.S. could reduce its commitment in Iraq.
In one option, it suggests that Washington make future U.S support conditional on the Iraqis reaching a set of political goals that result in a decentralized government. The carrot would be that the U.S. maintain a significantly reduced presence to support such a government and train security forces.
But if the Iraqis fail to act, the second option the report offers is the unconditional withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq, while expanding security operations outside of Iraq, bolstering the American diplomatic effort and continuing political support for the Iraqi government.
"This policy risks a complete failure of the Iraqi state, massive chaos and even genocide," the report says. "Should genocide occur, advocates of this policy believe the U.S. would have to intervene to stop it."
Click here to read the entire report.




Comments
The options offered are nothing new.
Here's my option, based on Sen. McCain's words:
The U.S. will leave ONLY WHEN U.S. troops are no longer injured, harmed, wounded or killed for 90 straight days.
When that happens, we'll pack up and go and leave Iraq to the Iraqis.
We'll also let the other countries in the region know that any EXTERNAL interference by outside forces will be met with stern resistance by the U.S. (Just don't tell the Canadians that we're bluffing. Those bast(*&^s don't know how to keep their mouths shut.)
Posted by: Resident Genius | April 6, 2008 6:34 PM
The truth; It hurts.
The horror,,,,the horror....
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/06/opinion/06rich.html?_r=1&ref=opinion&oref=slogin
Posted by: C.Morris | April 6, 2008 7:56 PM
Grim prospects...you want grim? The carnage that would result from a precipitous pull out by the US--that's grim.
Posted by: Bob | April 6, 2008 9:36 PM
A few arrogant idiots have created a complete mess. (See PBS Frontline this month; "Bushes War") or check the history yourself.
General Petreus, a good commander, took an order he could not succeed with. Of course the hole gets deeper. The reason for the surge was to bring levels of violence back to where we were. 2 years ago. Does anyone REALLY think that the idiot savants who got us in this mess are capable of getting us out? What history books have they read?
What can we do at this point? Fight Al Qeda, secure Iraq's borders (maybe we can do that better that we have at home), keep Iran from playing a direct role, work on a political solution and get our soldiers the heck out of the way.
Paraphrasing Colin Powell, we broke it, now we own it. But what in God's name have we purchased?
Posted by: Mark G | April 6, 2008 10:33 PM
Our job is done. Bring em home. p.s. I feel nothing for Iraq.
Posted by: McBush Family Value$ | April 6, 2008 10:34 PM
Bob from above; Are you assuming that we can prevent the carnage in any event?
Posted by: Mark G | April 6, 2008 10:38 PM
That's it. Really, this liberal is disgusted. I can't believe there are people who still believe our men and women should be in Iraq given the lack of any kind of major progress.
There is one solution: a draft. Not a draft for all, but a draft for able bodied Americans who support the war from their couch. Stop blogging about how weak you think liberals are, and go look in a mirror. You want to keep this fight going? Great - stop being such a wimp, join the services, and fight already. It's easy to support year 6 of a fledgling war from the comfort of your home, it's another going to Baghdad and doing something about it.
I'm all for a strong military presence - and a resounding butt-kicking if America is attacked. But this is getting nuts - the war remains a nightmare.
And all of you know it alls who predict that "it'll only get worse if we leave!", then I say get your butts over there and let's end this thing.
Because 6 years later, if you're still supporting this atrocity of a war without actually doing anything about it, you're a total and utter coward who cares more about your party than your country.
Congrats - it takes quite a man or woman to shout "keep the war going" from your couch. Why not go do something about already?
Posted by: Jason | April 6, 2008 11:04 PM
Is this Republican war officially a Quagmire yet ?
Posted by: dyno1 | April 6, 2008 11:29 PM
I don't know what you folks are whining about. This war is going perfectly. It's a huge success.
The military industrial complex and the big banks make the most money when there's a war on. They have absolutely zero intention of letting this end in our lifetime.
So every time you hear a grim report, and you sit here whining about how nasty it is, take some solace in knowing that there are many people out there with heavily laden pockets, laughing all the way to the bank. (By the way, do you think their kids are in Iraq? I think not.)
Posted by: cathy | April 6, 2008 11:42 PM
Fiasco. It's not just a book, it's a reality. Iraq is one big corporate scam, or at best an IQ test for republicans!
Posted by: FIASCO | April 7, 2008 2:07 AM
I'm much more concerned with the damage that is being done to this country than Iraq. Let them fix their own mess. Bring home our troops and quit wasting our tax dollar propping up a bunch of corrupt corpoate scumbags. Dead enders sign up and ship out. Otherwise shut up!
Posted by: Anton Chigurh | April 7, 2008 2:23 AM
Grim outlook is putting it nicely. We're stuck in a nightmare of Bush and Cheney's making. When will republicans wake up?
Posted by: Barack & Roll | April 7, 2008 5:26 AM
The Bush Administration was wrong about the benefits of the war and it was wrong about the costs of the war. The president and his advisers expected a quick, inexpensive conflict. Instead, we have a war that is costing more than anyone could have imagined.
The cost of direct US military operations - not even including long-term costs such as taking care of wounded veterans - already exceeds the cost of the 12-year war in Vietnam and is more than double the cost of the Korean War.
And, even in the best case scenario, these costs are projected to be almost ten times the cost of the first Gulf War, almost a third more than the cost of the Vietnam War, and twice that of the First World War. The only war in our history which cost more was the Second World War, when 16.3 million U.S. troops fought in a campaign lasting four years, at a total cost (in 2007 dollars, after adjusting for inflation) of about $5 trillion (that's $5 million million, or £2.5 million million). With virtually the entire armed forces committed to fighting the Germans and Japanese, the cost per troop (in today's dollars) was less than $100,000 in 2007 dollars. By contrast, the Iraq war is costing upward of $400,000 per troop.
Most Americans have yet to feel these costs. The price in blood has been paid by our voluntary military and by hired contractors. The price in treasure has, in a sense, been financed entirely by borrowing. Taxes have not been raised to pay for it - in fact, taxes on the rich have actually fallen. Deficit spending gives the illusion that the laws of economics can be repealed, that we can have both guns and butter. But of course the laws are not repealed. The costs of the war are real even if they have been deferred, possibly to another generation.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/guest_contributors/article3419840.ece
Posted by: Five Trillion $$$ War | April 7, 2008 7:50 AM
Posted by: Five Trillion $$$ War
-
"So?"
-Dick Cheney
Posted by: Bruce Y | April 7, 2008 11:17 AM
The price in blood has been paid by our voluntary military and by hired contractors. The price in treasure has, in a sense, been financed entirely by borrowing. Taxes have not been raised to pay for it - in fact, taxes on the rich have actually fallen. Deficit spending gives the illusion that the laws of economics can be repealed, that we can have both guns and butter. But of course the laws are not repealed. The costs of the war are real even if they have been deferred, possibly to another generation.
Posted by: Five Trillion $$$ War
-
"So?"
-Dick Cheney
Posted by: Bruce Y | April 7, 2008 11:17 AM
Depressing but funny!!! p.s. great book.
http://www.amazon.com/Three-Trillion-Dollar-War-Conflict/dp/0393067017
Posted by: Logic Prisoner | April 7, 2008 3:04 PM
It's pretty ironic hearing the same people who told us before the war that the invasion would be a cakewalk, that we would be greeted as liberators and that Iraq would quickly become the Switzerland of the Middle East NOW insist that the place will descend into total anarchy and mass genocide if we dare to pull out our troops.
Some people just have to learn their lessons the hard way, I guess. Which would be a little easier to take if they would just admit how completely wrong they were the first time around.
Posted by: Peter Principle | April 7, 2008 10:33 PM
What are the "goals" again?
To get our hands (or rather Exxon's hands) on Iraqi oil.
For confirmation, see Cheney's Secret Energy Report. Oh that's right. You can't see it. No one can--even though it's been subpoenaed.
The whole war was based on lies, remember? Have someone ask whether Petraus remembers...that one important fact.
Posted by: Rowland Scherman | April 9, 2008 1:25 PM