by James Oliphant
E.J. Dionne of the Washington Post theorizes that Hillary Clinton's proposed summer holiday from the federal gas tax ended up costing her. Dionne's take, basically, is voters might be able to be bought, but not for 30 bucks. And the fight between Clinton and Barack Obama on the issue was able to shove Rev. Jeremiah Wright out of the news cycle.
I believe Obama's pushback against Hillary Clinton's proposed gas tax holiday (first put forward by John McCain) was a decisive factor. After a listless several weeks, Obama came back to life in taking on a proposal that even Clinton supporters saw as pandering. The battle not only pushed Wright out of the news, it also allowed Obama to rejoin the central themes of his campaign, which he reprised in his victory speech in Raleigh.
One more point on the gas tax: if a candidate is going to pander, is an offer of roughly $30 really going to move many voters? My theory is that placing such a large bet -- measured by media buys and campaign trail talk -- on the gas tax holiday was a major mistake by the Clinton campaign.
What do you think Swamp readers? Were you swayed by the Clinton pitch?




Comments
Did it cost her more than 28 cents a day? $6.4 million in hew loans to her campaign is a helluva lot of gas...Pepcid needed here.
Posted by: tony | May 7, 2008 12:00 PM
Gosh...what does that say about McBush since his wasn't even paid for. Guess he'll drop that like a lead balloon. Just one more reason to vote democrat.
Posted by: bill r. | May 7, 2008 12:08 PM
The gas tax wasn't about gas. Or about tax. It was an effort to show the forgotten lower middle class that someone cared, and that they had a champion. It was a vote-getter. Was it effective? Yes.
Posted by: Dr.Annette Reed | May 7, 2008 12:18 PM
That proposal was not serious more so because it was not backed by any serious force such as Congress of any serious economists. What is needed is clear policy to battle high gas prices.
Posted by: henry owuor | May 7, 2008 12:24 PM
It was a knee-jerk reaction to a larger problem. Had Hillary said that the gas tax was going to go to develop of hydrogen technology and infrastructure? Now that would have got my attention.
Posted by: DD | May 7, 2008 12:29 PM
It was a vote-getter. Was it effective? Yes.
Posted by: Dr.Annette Reed | May 7, 2008 12:18 PM
With poll numbers in...the votes it got were for the wrong candidate.
Posted by: bill r. | May 7, 2008 12:29 PM
It absolutely made a difference. Hillary didn't need to prove anything, about connecting to the struggling middle class, cause she largely already had their support. You'd think that if you were going to try any financial gimmicks, to get votes, you'd at least get the endorsements of a couple economists. This was presumptuous of her to think the average voter couldn't see through this tactic. Its too bad because it left some serious ammo for Obama.
Posted by: Gordon | May 7, 2008 12:39 PM
The gas tax holiday balloon crashed.
Threat about 'obliterating' Iran (a naked ploy for the Jewish vote) didn't get much traction. Downing shots in a bar and painting a picture of growing up with guns probably earned her some support.
But don't write her off....yet. Hillary Clinton desperately wants to answer the Red Telephone and she will do
anything to have it on her bedside table.
Posted by: musafir | May 7, 2008 12:48 PM
Well, it sure didn't help.Hill made the big mistake of esentially dismissing the economists------who rightfully voiced their concern, about the half-baked--tax holiday idea. GOD help us if she ran the White House the same way---------especially with that "3 am call" and her itchy "trigger finger" on the button.
She's trying too hard to be "JANE WAYNE" !
Posted by: gangwise | May 7, 2008 12:49 PM
"What do you think Swamp readers? Were you swayed by the Clinton pitch?"
I wasn't swayed by Clinton's temporary lurch into economic sanity simply because I didn't believe she'd do it if elected.
Posted by: Bruce | May 7, 2008 1:15 PM
Let's see. We knew Obama was going to win North Carolina. Hillary won Indiana, as expected. Only liberals would think a proposal to lower taxes would hurt a campaign.
Also in Indiana, it borders Illinois, so Obama should have had an advantage there anyway.
Posted by: John D | May 7, 2008 1:33 PM
Also in Indiana, it borders Illinois, so Obama should have had an advantage there anyway.
Posted by: John D | May 7, 2008 1:33 PM
;
That is one of the dumbest statements I've ever read from you. Hey John D, the US borders Mexico, that means we should vote like they do, right?
Posted by: janet | May 7, 2008 2:33 PM
It was a very bad decision for her to speak about that, and especially since it was a Mccain plan. She instead supported a plan which she could not economically explain its effectiveness or counter the arguments of the economist or Obama. Obama was then able to be completely honest and say that he had tried to do it in Illinois, it did not work, and these are the reasons. He then went on to say that this is a Gimmick and as a result Hillary once again had an issue.
Most Americans believe that she is a liar and she represents old the Washington politics that people want to get away from. Individuals believe she represents that life, and acts in that way as well.
Posted by: Prabhjit Singh | May 7, 2008 3:10 PM
"The gas tax wasn't about gas. Or about tax. It was an effort to show the forgotten lower middle class that someone cared, and that they had a champion. It was a vote-getter. Was it effective? Yes.
Posted by: Dr.Annette Reed | May 7, 2008 12:18 PM"
I'm willing to believe that setting up a Holiday from gas taxes could show the forgotten Middle Class that somebody cares. No politician DOES care, of course, at least once they've completed the voting, but it's still a nice gesture.
That the tax was effective? Not so sure on that one. Per factcheck.org: "the federal gas tax brings in as much as $8.5 billion in revenue over three months. If prices really went down by 18.4 cents per gallon (24.4 cents for diesel), the average driver could save $28 -- or $56 for families with two vehicles (Clinton's team says it would be $70 per motorist, but we've been unable to find any support for that). Families that do a lot of driving could save more, of course, and reduced fuel costs might translate into slightly lower prices for food and other goods that have to be trucked or flown to their destination markets. Meanwhile Clinton would make up the funds that went missing in the federal treasury by, she says, taxing the oil companies' windfall profits.
But as we pointed out last week, economists say that Clinton's plan isn't likely to save any money at all. Lower gasoline prices would simply trigger demand, but since refineries are already working at full capacity in the summer months, the supply of gasoline (at least in the short term) is pretty much already fixed. Any price reductions that might appear initially would quickly be wiped out by the increased demand that would lead consumers to bid up the price of gas until prices returned to their pre-tax holiday levels. That means that the 18.4 cents per gallon that drivers currently pay in federal taxes would instead be transferred to the pockets of oil companies. Clinton then proposes to tax that profit to pay for the gas tax holiday.
We and other journalists have tried, unsuccessfully, to find any economists who think Clinton's holiday will actually give drivers relief. The Clinton campaign itself hasn't produced one, either."
Posted by: Op109 | May 7, 2008 4:06 PM
It was a very bad decision for her to speak about that, and especially since it was a Mccain plan. Most Americans believe that she is a liar and she represents old the Washington politics that people want to get away from. Posted by: Prabhjit Singh | May 7, 2008 3:10 PM
Great post. Especially the first line! Time to turn the page on the past and all the division and LYING!! Its insulting and I am so happy everyone isnt falling for that! Fight back America! Fight it!
Posted by: Keith Lifetime Southsider | May 7, 2008 5:38 PM
DD Janet, my comment was factual, not stupid.Many political pundits pointed to the advantage Obama should have mainly because Northwest Indiana basically is a suburb of Chicago and receives Chicago media.
Yes, Obama being from Illinois helps him in Indiana.
As usual, clueless, my dear.
Posted by: John D | May 7, 2008 7:49 PM