Obama, Clinton: Dead-heats w/ McCain: The Swamp
The Swamp
Posted May 30, 2008 3:15 PM
Gallup Match May30

Any gap between the candidates is gone, five months out.

The Swamp

by Mark Silva

Heading into what well might be the homestretch of the Democratic Party's presidential nomination contest - a party rules-fight Saturday over disputed delegates from Florida and Michigan, the remaining primaries Tuesday and the final dance of the decisive superdelegates - it's worth taking a measure of where everyone stands:

-- Barack Obama, Democrat, in a dead-heat with John McCain (R).

-- Hillary Clinton, Democrat, in a dead-heat with McCain.

-- Obama comfortably favored over Clinton among Democrats.

The Republicans already know who they're running: McCain. By Tuesday, or within a few days afterward, the Democrats should know their nominee as well.

There are plenty of polls on the question of who is more electable - and not only national polls, but also surveys in several battleground states on which the contest will likely turn. And of course Clinton is arguing these dynamics in her final bid to stop Obama. But for the sake of consistency, and looking at one survey that has been running on a rolling, daily basis for some time now, with three-day averages, here's what Gallup says near the close of the primary campaigns:

Obama is favored over Clinton by a solid 10 percentage points among Democrats surveyed. This is after months of a largely tied contest.

Clinton holds a 2 percentage point advantage, nationally, over McCain among all voters. Obama holds a 1-point edge over McCain.

"Clinton and Obama are now both statistically tied with McCain in the preferences of registered voters,'' Gallup reports.

Consider that: Five months from Election Day on Nov. 4, either one of the Democrats ready to claim their party's mantle stands toe-to-toe with the Republican candidate. If the last five months have made for high political drama, the next five promise an epic.

"Meanwhile, the Democratic nomination fight between Clinton and Obama goes on,'' Gallup notes -- though not for long. In Gallup Poll daily tracking from May 27-29, Obama has a 10-point advantage over Clinton in national Democratic preferences, 52 vs. 42 percent. "This... represents the continuation of a two-and-a-half week stretch during which Obama has nearly continuously held a significant lead.''

Gallup Democrats May 30

Gallup has interviewed at least 1,000 adults during 2008. The Democratic results come from surveys taken May 27-29. The survey of 1,240 Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters carries a possible margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points. The general election results come from surveys May 24-25 and 27-29. The survey of 4,368 registered voters carries a two-point error margin.

For more, see the Gallup Poll.

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Comments

Ouch...Now lets get on with the general election and start talking about topic #1..The economy.


I love listening to all of the Wingnuts (RNC Brucie) getting their hopes up because they see these May polls showing John McBush running close to the Dems.


As soon as the Dem primary is over, McBush's numbers are going to start dropping like the rocks in his head. The Republic Party has had their old man candidate "picked" for months now and he still doesn't excite anyone and he still can't hardly fundraise, even with the help of W and Darth.


And here are the Rasmussen results because the swamp only likes to show polls that benefit their chosen one Obama.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows that John McCain attracting 46% of the vote nationwide while Barack Obama earns 43%. McCain has been “ahead” by at least two percentage points on six of the last seven days (see recent daily results). Tracking Poll results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern.


" When it comes to the economy, 47% of voters trust John McCain more than Barack Obama. Obama is trusted more by 41%. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey also found that, when it comes to the War in Iraq, McCain is trusted more by 49% of voters. Obama is preferred by 37%. McCain has an even larger edge—53% to 31%--on the broader topic of National Security. These results are little changed from a month ago.

Obama enjoys a 43% to 39% advantage when it comes to government ethics and reducing corruption. McCain has a 44% to 38% advantage on taxes.

Rasmussen and Gallop are the 2 most reputable sources in the business.


Look Bruce! More polls. My only question is will you proclaim that these polls matter or not? Your position on polls changes day to day, depending on the conclusions. I bet you'll trot out a second poll to discuss, you rascal.


Ouch...Now lets get on with the general election and start talking about topic #1..The economy.

Posted by: bill "Hussein" r. | May 30, 2008 3:22 PM

I am with you!

Good opportunity for whoever becomes the DEM candidate to explain how their new entitlement program Nat'l Health Care will create jobs, wealth or even health care to the people they are pretending to speak for. I am pretty sure that there is some way to put into context how another $400B in entitlement spending, when the current entitlements we have are not funded, will "put this economy on track"


But how about the "electoral vote" polls? You know, the only ones that matter in November? The ones that show McCain ahead of Obama in almost all the swing states?
Looks like John E's gotten into his stash and started posting again. If someone is for McCain now why would they possibly switch to a democrat in the Fall? I could see a large block of Hillary voters switching to McCain once Obama is nominated but, no, not that.


When it comes to the economy, 47% of voters trust John McCain more than Barack Obama. Obama is trusted more by 41%. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey also found that, when
Posted by: Vinny | May 30, 2008 3:42 PM


Huh? John McBush is clueless about all things pertaining to the economy. I can't wait for the debates this fall, Obama is going to pound Grandpa McBush:
-
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HcdLO3jKkPo&feature=related


I am pretty sure that there is some way to put into context how another $400B in entitlement spending, when the current entitlements we have are not funded, will "put this economy on track"

Posted by: heartburn | May 30, 2008 4:02 PM

I am with you! We could pay for it with 1 less year of war. I believe McBushs plan of putting the fox in charge of the hen house makes absolutely no sense.


400B in entitlement spending, when the current entitlements we have are not funded, will "put this economy on track"

Posted by: heartburn | May 30, 2008 4:02 PM


You're right clown boy, who cares about "entitlements" like finding a way for everyone who wants it to have affordable healthcare, we should just continue to do what you Retugs have been doing the last seven years, like giving the rich more tax cuts and spending more on Iraq........NOT!


bill r,
The Wingnuts (John McBush) are going to run a dirtier and more swiftboat oriented campaign than they did in 2004, I mean what do they have to run on?


Healthcare?....Nope!


The Economy?...Nada!


Iraq?..........Hahaha, Yeah right!


I guess they'll have to run on their old standby, TAX CUTS FOR THE RICH!



I think this is going to be a most interesting revelation for the press and those that think they know who the general working class American really wants in the White House. The long-silent working class of Amerca will finally speak on election day. Let the polsters continue to read their tea leaves....America will speak in November--and they won't just be as they said months ago, "the small town hicks who cling to their guns and their religion."


I could see a large block of Hillary voters switching to McCain once Obama is nominated but, no, not that.

Posted by: Jeff | May 30, 2008 4:06 PM


HAHAHA! yeah Jeffy, they're all going to all of a sudden decide that they want to vote for John McBush's bomb bomb Iran, 100 years in Iraq...


Keep dreaming big, I love listening to it!


I am with you! We could pay for it with 1 less year of war. I believe McBushs plan of putting the fox in charge of the hen house makes absolutely no sense.

Posted by: bill "Hussein" r. | May 30, 2008 4:30 PM

Except this is spending for every year and forever
( entitlement) - you still ok with this ? And you know what $400B in campaign season turns into when you actually start paying for it..


I have always maintained and always will...the guy is a Fake with a capital 'F' who has mastered the art of sound bytes ...a preacher/cheerleader at best.
..just another polititian which he claims he is not

His Special friends...
1. Rev Wright
2. Rev Pfledger
3. Antoin Rezko

How did he win his 1st election..by strong arming his opponents out of the race on a technicality...is that CHANGE or SAME OLD SAME OLD?

Many many CHANGE/HOPE balloons are going to be bursting soon.

Wake up and smell the coffee.


entitlement) - you still ok with this ? And you know what $400B in campaign season turns into when you actually start paying for it..

Posted by: heartburn | May 30, 2008 4:55 PM


Are you ok with endless war?


Except this is spending for every year and forever
( entitlement) - you still ok with this ? And you know what $400B in campaign season turns into when you actually start paying for it..

Posted by: heartburn | May 30, 2008 4:55 PM


Are you ok with GOP deficit spending?
http://photobucket.com/image/budget%20surplus/leavinit/budget_deficit_or_surplus.gif?o=1



Many many CHANGE/HOPE balloons are going to be bursting soon.

Wake up and smell the coffee.

Posted by: Harry | May 30, 2008 5:07 PM


Sooooo, I guess you're saying that StayTheCourse/NoChange - McCain 08 is the way to go? Are Revs Hagee and Parsley coming with him?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j2VmDZt-RRI


I'm not dreaming it although I understand your skepticism. I'm reading exit polls from West Virginia, Florida, Ohio, and especially Kentucky.
Got anything against McCain than jokes by town hall questioners and "rank falsehoods" from the DNC? I've got a lot of bad judgements made by Obama. There names are Ayers, Dhorn, Wright, and Pfleger. And these are his friends that we KNOW about.


Heartburn.....McBush wants at least 4 more years maybe 100. This isn't some entitlement program for the poor...this affects millions of Americans with out insurance. Selfemployed, regular people. We have run up 9 trillion in debt under Bush.....For what? Bridges to nowhere...


This is serious trouble for the Democrats... and I have to say they deserve it. Given the state of the economy and the country stuck in an unpopular war, they hey should be polling way ahead of McCain. But what do you expect from the party with nothing to offer.


Comment: Democrat vs Republican: ( I love this story)

A Father/Daughter Talk

A young woman was about to finish her first year of college. Like so many others her age, she considered herself a very liberal Democrat, and was very much in favor of 'the redistribution of wealth.'

She was deeply ashamed that her father was a rather staunch Republican, a feeling she openly expressed. Based on the lectures that she had participated in, and the occasional chat with a professor, she felt that her father had for years harbored an evil, selfish desire to keep what he thought should be his.

One day she was challenging her father on his opposition to higher taxes on the rich and the addition of more government welfare programs. The self-professed objectivity proclaimed by her professors had to be the truth and she indicated so to her father. He responded by asking how she was doing in school.

Taken aback, she answered rather haughtily that she had a 4.0 GPA, and let him know that it was tough to maintain, insisting that she was taking a very difficult course load and was constantly studying, which left her no time to go out and party like other people she knew. She did not even have time for a boyfriend, and did not really have many college friends because she spent all her time studying.

Her father listened and then asked, 'How is your friend Audrey doing?'

She replied, 'Audrey is barely getting by. All she takes are easy classes, she never studies, and she barely has a 2.0 GPA. She is so popular on campus; college for her is a blast. She's always invited to all the parties, and lots of times she doesn't even show up for classes because she's too hung over.'

Her wise father asked his daughter, 'Why don't you go to the Dean's office and ask him to deduct a 1.0 off your GPA and give it to your friend who only has a 2.0. That way you will both have a 3.0 GPA and certainly that would be a fair and equal distribution of GPA.'

The daughter, visibly shocked by her father's suggestion, angrily fired back, 'That wouldn't be fair! I have worked hard for my grades! I have invested a lot of time, and a lot of hard work! Audrey has done next to nothing toward her degree. She played while I worked my tail off!'

The father slowly smiled, winked and said gently, 'welcome to the Republican Party.???


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Comment: Democrat vs Republican: ( I love this story)

A Father/Daughter Talk

A young woman was about to finish her first year of college. Like so many others her age, she considered herself a very liberal Democrat, and was very much in favor of 'the redistribution of wealth.'

She was deeply ashamed that her father was a rather staunch Republican, a feeling she openly expressed. Based on the lectures that she had participated in, and the occasional chat with a professor, she felt that her father had for years harbored an evil, selfish desire to keep what he thought should be his.

One day she was challenging her father on his opposition to higher taxes on the rich and the addition of more government welfare programs. The self-professed objectivity proclaimed by her professors had to be the truth and she indicated so to her father. He responded by asking how she was doing in school.

Taken aback, she answered rather haughtily that she had a 4.0 GPA, and let him know that it was tough to maintain, insisting that she was taking a very difficult course load and was constantly studying, which left her no time to go out and party like other people she knew. She did not even have time for a boyfriend, and did not really have many college friends because she spent all her time studying.

Her father listened and then asked, 'How is your friend Audrey doing?'

She replied, 'Audrey is barely getting by. All she takes are easy classes, she never studies, and she barely has a 2.0 GPA. She is so popular on campus; college for her is a blast. She's always invited to all the parties, and lots of times she doesn't even show up for classes because she's too hung over.'

Her wise father asked his daughter, 'Why don't you go to the Dean's office and ask him to deduct a 1.0 off your GPA and give it to your friend who only has a 2.0. That way you will both have a 3.0 GPA and certainly that would be a fair and equal distribution of GPA.'

The daughter, visibly shocked by her father's suggestion, angrily fired back, 'That wouldn't be fair! I have worked hard for my grades! I have invested a lot of time, and a lot of hard work! Audrey has done next to nothing toward her degree. She played while I worked my tail off!'

The father slowly smiled, winked and said gently, 'welcome to the Republican Party.???


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Posted by: jimmy funkenstein | May 30, 2008 5:30 PM
Oh c'mon John E, don't start with the fake post names again. Nobody, nobody is fooled by that. Nobody here believes that it's a groundswell when you post the same things, using the exact same phraseology, the same YouTube links...


THe press speaks glowingly about Obama ans he satill trails McCain. BLue cdollar votrs will not vote for Obama and he will lose the same way Kerry and Dukakis did. Everyone and their mother thought Kerry was a shoe in and at this itme last year he was trouncing Bush in the polls. THe bottom line is people do want a far left winger running the white house and unfortunately for you JOhn E those are poll numbers from Rasmussen and 30% of Clinton supporters nationwide said they will not vote for Obama and 50% in Ohio, Florida, Penn, Kentucky, WV said they will not vote for Obama. Sorry bro but McCain is in a great position right now. WIth how awful the GOP is looked at right now it is a miracle he is not getting trounced. He is only going to look better once more and more about Obama comes to light. WIth every passing month people find out more about Obama that they do not like. In Feb the guy was as shoe in to be the next pres now he trails McCain in just about every poll nationally and in every swing state. WHile I am not a big fan of the GOP I am very happy that most people are seeing Obama for the fraud that he really is. You cant have a 20 year personal relationship with Wright and then pretend like you were the only human on the planet who didnt know how hateful Wright and his church were. That will go down as the day Obama lost the presidency. 50% of Dems in Kentucky and WV said Obama was dishonest. THAT IS HIS OWN PARTY!!!!


We don't vote like the polls--heard of the electoral college.


Like it or not… “Hillary is the best chance for Dem’s to win”… there’s nothing left in her “closet”… and she’s a respected and stout contender.

Frankly, I hope Obama wins the nomination… exposing the “real” Obama hasn’t even started yet… the toilet named “Barack Hussein Obama Jr.” is full… and the flush will be heard around the world.


As a true blu moderate democrat-I never thought there would come a day when I 'd vote republican-but i survived 7 years of bush-and i will survive 4 of McCain-apparently we have a wingnut in the democratic party complete with religious nuts as sidekicks-and i don't need that sideshow of freaks for 4 years


Hillary has been given ample opportunity to bow out of her lost campaign with dignity. In typical Clinton fashion, she has chosen to linger on for self-serving reasons and at the expense of the Democratic Party.

Patience has worn thin for Hillary; Pelosi, Reid, and the remaining Super-Delegates are poised to shut her down.

Hillary has some major amends to make to her NY constituency, especially the AA community, who have seen Hillary in her true colors!

Hillary, the Queen of Spin and a Legend in Her Own Mind!

http://klintons.com


November will be the end of the old guard republicans who have ruined their party. I hope the GOP will recreate itself in a viable form. Until then, it's Barack Obama and the democratic party for this gal!


National poll numbers DO NOT tell the story.

Ask President Al Gore how that all worked out.


November will be the end of the old guard republicans who have ruined their party. I hope the GOP will recreate itself in a viable form. Until then, it's Barack Obama and the democratic party for this gal!
Posted by: Blonde Bombshell | May 31, 2008 9:18 AM
There's truth in your comment. The administration abandoned conservatism and so has poisoned the GOP. However the party will be purged of the deadwood by the electoral process and will reform, refocus and spend it's time as the Loyal Oppostion productively while the Democrats screw up.
Meanwhile, the next president will be a one termer. An interim. Obama or Clinton have a good chance but its not a sure thing at all (just look at the polls). Anyway. either of them will be crippled by scandal and an uncooperative Congress and Press. On the other hand, McCain is a Reagan revolutionary and his time is passed. One Term, whoever wins.
Then in 2012 our two party system will face a choice between a reorganized, reinvigorated, focused GOP and a Democratic party that stands for nothing, whose sole purpose is to provde jobs for politicians, who can only succeed by adopting Conservatism.
In other words. The Right has a political home, the Left doesn't. Advantage -- Right.
I wish that weren't the truth, but it is. The Democratic party has been dead for YEARS... it just lacks the good sense and decorum to lie down. I's time for it to disappear and be replaced.


MJ lends us his "independent views". Jeezzzz!


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