Obama: 12-point advantage over McCain: The Swamp
The Swamp
Posted June 24, 2008 5:00 PM
The Swamp

by Mark Silva

Democratic Sen. Barack Obama claims a significant advantage over Republican Sen. John McCain at the start of their campaign for the White House, according to the results of a new poll conducted by the Los Angeles Times and Bloomberg News.

In a two-way matchup, the poll has found Obama favored among 49 percent of those surveyed, McCain 37 percent. This is almost as wide an advantage as Obama held (15 points) in a Newsweek poll published over the weekend - both surveys portraying Obama far better positioned in his bid for the White House than other surveys have shown in recent days. The poll was run over the weekend.

In a four-way ballot that includes independent candidate Ralph Nader and Libertarian Bob Barr, Obama holds a 48-33 percentage-point advantage over McCain in the L.A. Times and Bloomberg survey - suggesting that it is McCain who stands to lose the most to third- and fourth-party alternatives who may appeal to an independent voter whom both Obama and McCain are courting in their campaigns for president.

The added margin for Obama in the broader matchup appears due less to Obama's strength and more to McCain's weakness, the L.A. Times reports.

The Arizona senator suffers from a pronounced "enthusiasm gap," especially among conservatives who usually provide republican candidates with a reliable base, the Times adds. Fewer than 80 percent of self-described Republicans say they will vote for their party's candidate this year, with about 10 percent saying they plan to vote for someone else and about 10 percent undecided. Among voters who say they do plan to vote for McCain, almost half say they are "not enthusiastic" about the candidate.

By contrast, the Times reports, about 80 percent of Obama's voters say they are enthusiastic and almost half say they are "very enthusiastic.''

See the story at the Los Angeles Times.

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Comments

Of course there's an "enthusiasm gap". Big Media has been suppressing conservative voter turnout for months now, something that will continue all the way through November 4.
-Wm Tate,
http://www.atimelikethis.us/


I hope Obama crushs McSAME in November. That old man is one scary dude.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6A7r7hq5XRo&NR=1


HEY RNC BRUCE!


THIS POLL IS JUST FOR YOU, ENJOY!!!!


1. congress got the intel that was cherry picked and massaged by the White House, duh! That is the crux of the problem. The Bush administration, Cheney and Fieth in particular, falsified and doctored the intel. Congress doesn't run the CIA or the Pentagon, the administration does.
2. Because the GOP makes it an issue, just like gay marriage every presidential election and McCain is anti-choice. He wants to overturn Roe v Wade.
3. Only the rich can afford health care. However, in everyother western industrialized nation, health care is provided for everyone. Adequate health care for everyone is way better than the best health care available for only a small percentage of people.
5. Appeasement only occurs when you decide to give something away, not when talking. Using McCain's convoluted logic I guess Nixon was an appeaser when he start talks with Red China and the USSR.
6. Recession is when the economy is stagnate and considering economic growth was 0.4% last month, we're pretty damn close to a recession. Oil too. Thanks to legislation written by Sen Graham and signed by dubya, the restrictions on oil trading in the futures market has been eased, thus increasing oil speculation and the price of oil. approximately $35 of the price of oil is due to this change and it is increasing. I can't afford John McBush!!!


Look Bruce, a poll! It's just the L.A. Times left-wing bias right?

Oh wait.......

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html



At least McCain doesn't plaster on the the make-up like a trollup.


The polls in this election are more meaningless than the exit polls showing Kerry won the presidency. The well-known Wilder effect takes root here because people being polled will not admit that they will not vote for a black man. Will that stop the polls? No. It will only make the pollsters look foolish as usual on election night.


How come I never get polled? Who are these people getting polled? Polls showed Kerry winning as well, didn't it?


Wm tate,

So conservatives listen to the media to choose who they vote for? Weak...


Big Media has been suppressing conservative voter turnout for months now, something that will continue all the way through November 4.
-Wm Tate,
Posted by: Wm Tate | June 24, 2008 5:09 PM


Uh no,
What's suppressing "conservative" voter turnout is the godawful policies from BushCo the last 7 years and the fact that McCain want's to continue down that path with those same failed policies:
-
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hnb2IrsU1Cg


The people will speak in November. I'm predicting a bad month for John (the former maverick) McCain. I think we all realize what trouble this country would be in should the fossil continue the failed Bush policies. John McCain sold out the American people years ago and is unfit to be president.

He flies on the corporate jets of firms having business before the Senate committee he serves on. He doesn't care if American sons and daughters have been and are being killed in Iraq for more than 100 years.

McCain would be four more years of Bush. McCain is Bush on steroids.


Too bad Lou Dobbs didn't enter the race. McCain would have been lucky to take third.


Does it really matter what a poll four-plus months ahead of the general election says?

But, assuming that it's accurate, I am not at all shocked to see McCain supporters arguing that the poll's findings are the result of media manipulation. Get over it! There has been plenty of fair coverage of both candidates in the mainstream media, and a ridiculous amount of Obama-bashing in the right-wing press. So, if anything, Obama's lead is IN SPITE OF the right-wing media.

You'll just have to face the facts that your candidate doesn't inspire. I have to say, it's fun being on the other side of that equation. Go Obama!


Oh God, please let this be an indicator of the November results.

Liberals pray too....but for good things.


The best argument against the LA Times/Bloomberg poll is given and was given by Swamp reporter Mark Silva.

In late February of this year, LA Times/Bloomberg came out with a poll showing McCain beating Obama by 6% (46%-40%). See http://www.ajc.com/news/content/news/stories/2008/02/27/campaign_poll_0227.html

How did Mark Silva handle THAT LA Times/Bloomberg poll?

You guessed it. He and his Swamp colleagues didn't even mention the poll. They must have thought it was unreliable. Or maybe the Swamp cherrypicks polls and only reports on polls that help their man Obama.

Today, by a strange coincidence that has nothing to do with the Swamp reporters being Democrats, the same poll is deemed reliable--and newsworthy--when it shows an Obama lead.


I hope they don't get overconfident. Dukakis was ahead of GHWBush by about this much in June 1988.

On the other hand, what did JN Garner tell FDR in June 1932 when asked what he should do to win in Nov. 32?

"Stay alive", Garner said.


This poll means nothing! It is June, and the election is in November!


The Swamp's Mr. Silva used to work the Gallup Poll to death--so long as Gallup delivered good Obama numbers. Now that Gallup is showing the race a statistical tie (latest, see June 21-23 Gallup daily tracking) he's switched over to another, more Obama-friendly, poll.

If you read the LA Times/Bloomberg poll, you'll see that they polled 17% more Democrats than Republicans. Given that, how could a Democrat NOT be leading?


Looks like the man the terrorist group Hamas endorsed is out in front ! Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Hezbollah are all funded by Iran, naturally, so all 4 parties will be pleased to meet with Obama face-to-face, no preconditions, as soon as he defeats McCain. Odd, Obama has more preconditions to a debate with McCain than he does to meet with the leader of Iran, which may threaten our European alliances. That's OK when your president is an intern. See reason #1 at the top of the list of these 10: http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=MzQ4YTY4YjQyMzRjYjA5MGZlNDBiZTkwYmEyODg5NTc=


Do they poll all 57 states?


Obama victory whould be the best thing that has ever happened to the USA...


Remember the election in 2006?
Thought you might like to read the following:

A little over one year ago:
1) Consumer confidence stood at a 2 1/2 year high;
2) Regular gasoline sold for $2.19 a gallon;
3) The unemployment rate was 4.5%.

Since voting in a Democratic Congress in 2006 we have seen:
1) Consumer confidence plummet;
2) The cost of regular gasoline soar to over $4.00 a gallon;
3) Unemployment is up to 5% (a 10% increase);
4) American households have seen $2.3 trillion in equity value evaporate (stock and mutual fund losses);
5) Americans have seen their home equity drop by $1.2 trillion dollars;
6) 1% of American homes are in foreclosure.

America voted for change in 2006, and we got it!
Remember, it’s Congress that makes law not the President.
He has to work with what’s handed to him.


"PHIL GRAMM & LINDSAY SPEAK"

NOT BY "REMOVING ATTORNEY GENERAL" IN CONSULTATION WITH THE FEC, SECRETARY OF TREASURY, AND ANY BANKING COMMISSIONER IN THE UNITED STATES; INSERTING, SECRETARY OF HOMELAND SECURITY.
JOHN MCCAIN HEARS THE VOICES!
HE'S THE 2ND CONVENANT!
THE "STAKES ARE HIGH"
ALL "BETTS" HAVE BEEN OFF! FROM THE SAN PEDRO RIVER THROUGH THE HALLS OF RICK RENZI'S WHISPER ACCOUNT!
ALL "BETTS" ARE OFF!


Hate to break it to you, Bruce, but any honest poll, Gallup's and the rest, will find more people self-identifying as Democrats than Republicans. That's where the public is today. And matchups between Obama and McCain months ago didn't really matter, did they? We've fully reported the statistical ties in the Gallup Poll and mentioned in the coverage of this LA poll and also Newsweek's that their results are quite different from those ties. Try sticking to the subject.


i hope obama trash mcsame badly in november...i cant stand the guy he is a war monger period... no peace in the world with him being president


Amber: Do you REALLY think that Senator Obama doesn't know how many states there are??? YOU try campaigning as much as HE has and see if YOU wouldn't make a mistake sometimes just from being exhausted!!! I hardly think a Harvard law grad wouldn't know how many states there are!!!


I imagine that McCain and his team are hoping for a major terrorist attack on the US sooner rather than later, to get his poll numbers higher.


HERE'S THE FACTS OF THE POLL:

39% DEMOCRATS
22% REPUBLICANS
27% INDEPENDENTS

IT MEANS THAT THE EXTREMELY LOPSIDED POLL SHOWS THAT OBAMA ACTUALLY LOSES DEMOCRATIC VOTES TO MCCAIN.


RNC Bruce,


Curses! Foiled again!


Obama will win because America is rready for the change in thinking that got us into a war that on one wanted. McCain is Bush Lite.


BARACK NEEDS ONLY SELECT GENERAL WES CLARK OR SENATOR AS HIS V.P. AND THIS ELECTION IS OVER!


You mean Bruce is a partisan hack hypocrite that cherry-picks polls and posts flat out lies?

Thanks Mark for pointing out what we've all known for some time.

Bruce, you seem to be having a pretty bad day. I recommend a stiff drink and maybe some toy soldier battle before bed.


Don't break out the champaign yet. The election is in November. But do enjoy the lead.

But remember in November McCain will win.


VJ Machiavelli
http://www.vjmachiavelli.blogspot.com
ps, check out the video on my blog


When you post these poll results you should really post the underlying statistics as well. For example, of those surveyed the party percents were Dem 39% and Repub 22% or a 17% advantage for Dems (rest were Indep). In last two presidential elections, voter party's were split evenly. So based on this polls oversampling of Dems you would expect Barrack to be up 17% but he is only up 12%. Which is not a surprise that he is doing worse than expected because McCain is winning in the independents in the poll.

When these polls are truly random, you get biased results (beyond the margin of error). Then people are "shocked" when the actual election results come in opposite of what was expected.

I won't even bring up with the electoral college, that state by state polls are more meaningful than national polls.

Thanks.


As a lifelong Republican, I am very disgusted with how my party has handled itself over the last 8 years. This year I am voting for Barack Obama for President of the United States of America.


As a lifelong Democrat, I am very disgusted with how my party has handled itself over the last 8 years. This year I am voting for John McCain for President of the United States of America.


I agree with Michelle Watson. Any poll that comes out of LA is liberal biased.
Let Obama take California they are as whacked out as he is. Gay marriage, abortion paid by governent their in the taank for all that Obama stuff. Jerrry White, Springfiedl, IL


As a lifelong Republican, I am very disgusted with how my party has handled itself over the last 8 years. This year I am voting for Barack Obama for President of the United States of America.

Posted by: Joe Reed | June 25, 2008 1:23 AM


So which would be closer to your "republican" values: Obama / Pelosi / Reid running the country, or McCain / Pelosi / Reid running the country?


Hate to break it to youSteve but BUSh is the one responsible for anylegislatin passed through congress. Since all of his puppets that are left sitting vote against anything the democrats have put forward, explain to me how its the democratic congress responsible for the mess our country is in through Bush policy??


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