John McCain picked up a four-point lead over Barack Obama in likely voters, according to a new USA Today/Gallup poll, and trails by less in registered voters than in previous polls. However, a separate Gallup poll over the same time period shows a wider lead in registered voters for Obama.
USA Today reports that McCain leads 49 to 45 percent in likely voters and Obama leads 47 to 44 percent in registered voters, showing a tightening of the race. The poll conducted Friday through Sunday reflects a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points.
Gallup took another poll over that time period showing registered voters only, which the polling organization says is the more important group to watch this close to the election, USA Today reports. That poll showed a 48 to 40 percent lead for Obama over McCain, with a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points.
Gallup spokesman Eric Nielsen said registered voters are the most important to watch right now.
"The main reason for this that it is too early to have a good sense of what the turnout will look like in November," he said in a e-mail. "However, likely voters do provide a unique snapshot of possibilities. What McCain's lead in the [likely voters] polling shows is that if he can energize his base he might do well...as it stands now some 98 days out."
As the election gets closer, likely voters will be more important to watch.
"We heard in 2004 about the huge swell of young people who were going to turnout for Kerry," Nielsen said. "In 2000, the same thing with Gore. Whether or not this year's enthusiasm continues and actually turns into votes being cast will be very carefully watched."
The difference in the polling numbers is related to margin of error and slightly different polling methodology, Nielsen said.
Gallup Editor-in-Chief Frank Newport offers more analysis of the McCain, Obama race:
"Obama gained ground over McCain in each of the last three tracking updates, but today's average shows no further gains and a slight drop of Obama's percent of the vote from 49% to 48%. Obama's progress was coincident with his highly visible foreign tour, and it is not unreasonable to expect that his lead over McCain may settle back to a margin closer to what Gallup has measured for most of the summer as the impact of the trip fades.
"At the same time, McCain and his surrogates have engaged in sharp attacks on Obama in their attempt to blunt the impact of his trip, and some of that effort could have an effect on voters. The basic structure of the race so far this summer has been remarkably stable, and it remains to be seen if either candidate can alter it for a sustained period of time before the conventions in late August and early September."
Our colleague Don Frederick at Top of the Ticket has more on these presidential polls. For more information on likely voters, visit Gallup.com







Comments
You will see McCain's poll numbers drop like a sack of horse droppings when the press starts to report his hypocrisy on being "for the troops." Try this for starters:
McCain Opposes the 21st Century GI Bill Because It Is Too Generous
McCain Voted Against Increased Funding for Veterans’ Health Care.
Opposed an Assured Funding Stream for Veterans’ Health Care
McCain Voted Against Adding More Than $400 Million for Veterans’ Care
Voted Against Establishing a $1 Billion Trust Fund for Military Health Facilities
McCain Opposed $500 Million for Counseling Services for Veterans with Mental Disorders
McCain Voted in Support of Disabled Veterans Only 25 Percent of the Time from 2004-2005
McCain Supported Outsourcing VA Jobs
He Also Supported Outsourcing at Walter Reed.
2003: McCain Voted Against $122.7 Billion for Department of Veterans Affairs
2001: McCain Voted Against $51 Billion in Veterans Funding.
2000: McCain Voted Against $47 Billion for the Department of Veterans Affairs.
1999: McCain Voted Against $44.3 Billion for Veterans Programs
1996: McCain Voted Against a $13 Billion Increase in Funding for Veterans Programs.
1995: McCain Voted to Underfund Department of Veterans Affairs.
1995: McCain Voted Against Closing Tax Loopholes to Increase Veterans Funding by $74 Million.
1994: McCain Voted Against Funding the Department of Veterans Affairs
Besides the media has never been the least bit curious about McCain's glamorous military service which starts with his being nearly dead last in his Naval Academy graduating class. How did he go from that to pilot school, which accepts only the best and brightest? Family connections?
How did he survive a mediocre military career in which he crashed 5 aircraft. In all branches of service crashing 1 aircraft can cause an officer to lose his pilot's wings. Did family connections help him?
His background is not all that sparkling, and hard questions need to be asked about it since that is what puts him on the pedestal.
Posted by: GEEP | July 29, 2008 7:23 AM
I just don't get it. I keep repeating the word "change", but i can't get ahead. I just went all over the world, saying "change, change, change" (and Axelrod tells me the pictures were fab, by the way) but now look at these numbers... they don't change!
Posted by: Barry | July 29, 2008 7:27 AM
Lets just hope voters keep waking up to Obama and his FLIP FLOPS-
For instance he should bury his head in the sand for ignoring American Troops, instead of issuing his STANDARD WORN OUT APOLOGY-
Posted by: George | July 29, 2008 7:34 AM
The media decision to puff Obama's tour backfired. The more Americans saw of Obama, the more they realized that he's kind of like a huge balloon, lots of empty space filled with hot air. People are realizing, like those who ride passenger planes, that there's much more comfort when you see that the captain has some silver hair and is not a hot-shot kid who just got his bars. And just coincidentally, McCain is a pilot...and a hero at that.
Posted by: Goldberg | July 29, 2008 7:47 AM
The polls also depend on how much slack the stenographers (formerly known as media journalists) give to McCain.
While scrutinizing every syllable uttered by Obama, the right-wing stenographers ignore McCain's gaffes and moronic statements. In the case of ABC "news", the right-wing stenographers were caught whitewashing McCain's stupidity by editing video to mismatch the Q&A.
This is the same treatment they gave to Bush in in 2000 and 2004.
Posted by: Jersey Bob | July 29, 2008 7:53 AM
CAn we get a break from all these polls. How about the pollsters take a month off. So we can get a little "POLL RELIEF"
VJ Machiavelli
http://www.vjmachiavelli.blogspot.cpm
Posted by: VJ Machiavelli | July 29, 2008 7:53 AM
First of all, I don't believe this poll - the mainstream media is trying to make this look like a close race, when I think McCain is going to get stomped and rightfully so. Second, McCain is a tired, senile old man with anger management issues and no vision whatsoever. He has used violence throughout his lifetime to try to solve problems and he doesn't have the intellectual depth or diplomatic skills to lead this diverse country in the most complex of times. Regardless of what the war-mongering fascists think, being in a Vietnamese prison cell for five years over 40 years ago, is no qualification whatsoever for being President of the United States.
Posted by: Stephen Kriz | July 29, 2008 9:29 AM
Guess the new " Rock Star" image is fading.... Sad..Because that's all Obama has...Add that to his crummy associates and bitter wife and what do you get??Nothing but practiced rhetoric with a teleprompter..
Posted by: typical texas | July 29, 2008 9:31 AM
How pathetic the Democratic party has become. To quote a line from my favorite movie...."They're sitting out there waiting to give you their money; are you gonna take it? Are you man enough to take it?"
With Bushs' approval ratings at all time lows, what do these polls say about what Americans think of the Socialist Democratic Republic?
Posted by: RCK | July 29, 2008 9:33 AM
Here's a vote for poll relief. Has Nader announced yet?
Posted by: Steve Forstneger | July 29, 2008 9:42 AM
Although discussing the presidential race poll numbers is very interesting topic, I would not take any of the polls seriously until mid-September at the earliest. At this stage of the game neither the Democrats or the Republicans have even held their conventions and we do not know who the Vice Presidential candidates are. Many times we have seen a candidate come out of their party's convention with a big lead and proceed to lose the general election in November. For all my fellow political junkies all I suggest is sit back and enjoy the show. This one may have some big surprises. Only time will tell.
Posted by: Depot Jim | July 29, 2008 9:46 AM
GEEP, you're a reprehensible human being but you're right about one thing. McCain did get one thing because of his family connections. He got brutally tortured every day he was a POW because they knew he was the son and grandson of Admirals. Try to remember that the next time you lie about John McCain.
The Obamessiah's honeymoon is over. The voters are realizing that this emperor isn't wearing any clothes.
Posted by: Jeff | July 29, 2008 9:48 AM
Arrogance to the 10th power. Obama is already making plans to renovate the White House, including installing a basketball court. He has the audacity to believe that Americans are very, very dumb and that he will smirk and flirt his way into the White House. He's dead wrong.
Posted by: Derrick | July 29, 2008 9:53 AM
Is the Love Affair with Obama over ? Maybe an honest independant poll is out and they have to report it.
Posted by: BCC | July 29, 2008 10:00 AM
From community activist to Illinois senator for 143 days before launching his presidential campaign.
Oh sure! Obama's got the experience to lead this nation on a global stage.
NOT!
Posted by: Bleu | July 29, 2008 10:11 AM
Newport says the race has been "remarkably stable" despite a 12-point swing in two polls taken by the same group, in the same week?
How is that stable? These polls mean nothing. The error margins are more like 10 points.
Posted by: David Hillman | July 29, 2008 10:13 AM
These polls are fake. They didn't poll any of the voters in Germany, France or the Middle East. Oh, wait...
Posted by: dan | July 29, 2008 10:14 AM
Anyone thinking of voting for Obama should be dragged kicking and screaming here to Cook County Illinois [his home district] and forced to live here. Between the 10.25% sales tax over 11 downtown and daily headlines about corruption, cronyism and incompetence I can assure Obama's change to Chicago style politics will be terrible for the nation. As far as I'm concerned the democratic party is dead to me and I can't move away from here fast enough.
Posted by: Steven | July 29, 2008 10:24 AM
I cannot imagine why anyone would want a corrupt politician from Illinois for president.
NOT ME!!!!!!!!!
Posted by: lou | July 29, 2008 10:26 AM
McCain's attacks weren't the end all in Obama's numbers dropping after his trip. His numbers dropped because of not visiting those injured troops we've all heard about, trying to untruthfully blame it on the Pentagon, talking our country down in another country, and now it seems as tho other countries don't like hearing Obama speeches about them needing to put more of their troops into the war to save the US tax payers money (big flub a dub there).
McCain saved all kinds of money on attack adds, he let Obama pull himself down.
Posted by: Teresa | July 29, 2008 10:51 AM
Today's Rasmussen Poll shows the trip 'bounce" has disappeared, and that the race is tied:
"The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows that Barack Obama’s Berlin bounce is gone. Obama now attracts 44% of the vote while John McCain earns 42%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 47% and McCain 46%. Compared to a week ago, Obama has gained a single percentage point (see recent daily results)."
Outrageous! How dare the lowly American people reject the "Obama for Messiah" views of their betters--reporters and tv news anchors.
Posted by: Johnny E | July 29, 2008 10:53 AM
Yes, because we'd hate to have a corrupt politician from Texas, Wyoming, et al.
When you call Obama "arrogant" or "corrupt" you reveal more than just your incompetence but you weak smokescreen. Just come out and say it: you'll be hater, sure, but you won't be a hypocrite anymore. We don't you hating yourself over this when there are so many other good reasons...
Posted by: lostfourwords | July 29, 2008 11:00 AM
Besides McCain's lack of support for vets he also has a terrible record on women's issues, mass transit, and torture. His penchant for flip flopping is legendary. He has no economic policy except what Gramm tells him to do and his energy policy is based on gimmicks. He never explains why the oil companies need more off shore drilling when they got leases for millions of acres that have not been exploited. Then there is the refineries running at max output. So where is all of this oil going to get processed. Obama just met with some serious economic advisers both Republican and Democrat over the last day or so where he listened to their ideas. He wants to get another round of stimulus checks out and provide middle income tax relief as well as eliminating the tax burden on the elderly. He wants to push alternative energy with a 150 billion over the next 10 years and gets us to reduce demand on gas with higher mileage standards on cars. Over the last two weeks or so McCain has followed Obama's policies of concentrating on Afghanistan and now McCain says 16 months sounds pretty good to him. McCain sure has come a long way from his 100 year commitment and looks to me like he is the one who does not know what he is doing. Then just recently McCain came out with the same plan Obama has been talking about for the longest time on Social Security. I think the real empty shell here is McCain. On this war hero business I think McCain is getting far more credit than he deserves. The only part of McCain's military record that bears any respect was his time as a POW. The rest of his career was a joke including being on the bottom of his class, having his Daddy, the admiral bail him out of many incidents including getting him into pilot school, and his constant party boy attitude and low regard for women in general. Finally there is the media coverage where a recent study that was praised by the Republicans in 2006 shows that the media has been overwhelmingly negative and biased against Obama while giving McCain a free pass that includes even editing their stuff to make McCain look better than he really is. I have gotten to the point where the bias is bothering me so much I quit watching Fixed News with its commentators like Hannity who supported that neo nazi Hal Turner who ran for the Senate in New Jersey and that other guy O'Reilly who seems to be unable to control his unwanted sexual advances towards his co-workers and some others like David Gregory and Joe S. These guys are so negative towards Obama and at times appear to me to be offering advice to the McCain campaign. They ought to just come out and say they are Republican surrogates. Then there is Pat Buchanan with his constant rhetoric about Obama being some left winger and always seem to have problems with voters even when he is leading in the polls. I notice they never talk about what Obama has to offer on the issues. They only want to continue to sow seeds of doubt into voters' minds like they did when they helped that moron Bush get elected twice. Obama needs a big turnout so I just hope that a lot of people who have not voted in the past decide this is the year they are going to come out in droves.
Posted by: Jake | July 29, 2008 11:02 AM
I can't image why anyone would want another four years of Republican corruption and criminality. Look at what they did to the Justice Department!
Posted by: Tom O | July 29, 2008 11:12 AM
OK now other media outlets are picking up the story. Fox has been reporting this for one week now. For the last week, anyone looking at realclearpolitics.com can see Obama is dropping in battleground states--Michigan, Wisconsin, Missouri, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado. He's dropping in all of them. Bring it on.
Posted by: About Time | July 29, 2008 11:21 AM
The Democrats cannot bungle this election. Watch out for this to happen: Polls will be taken to see if McCain can defeat Clinton, and if Clinton has the numbers, she will get the nomination. All that separates Clinton from winning the nod is super delegates which can change their vote.
Posted by: SS | July 29, 2008 11:30 AM
Wow, now the Washington Post. Richard Cohen's story in the Washington Post today is entitled "What Has Obama Accomplished?" Is the same question conservative media have been asking for months now spreading to mainstream media? If we exclude great speeches, and the book he wrote about himself, and the 160 times he voted "present" in the Illinois state government, can someone please summarize his accomplishments? A few months ago two of his staffers on a national, live interview could not.
Posted by: Wow | July 29, 2008 11:32 AM
Actually, if you look at the RCP averages for the last couple of weeks, Obama has been gaining in the battleground states. Out of 24 states, he is leading in 16 of them and tied in one. Out of the 7 listed at the upper right of this page, he is winning 6 of them and tied in Fla. Two weeks ago he was ahead in only 4 of them. Yes, please bring it on.
Posted by: Bubba | July 29, 2008 12:11 PM
Jake- I know Obama does a lot of speeches, and talks a lot, but what incredible things has he actually accomplished in his lifetime, as Senator, community organizer, you name it??
Posted by: Teresa | July 29, 2008 1:07 PM
john mccain is much of a risk than obama, if he gets in he will be the oldest president, how is he going to try and stop the war on terrosism when he is so old. I think he will be inviting another terrosim attack from osama bin laden since this only shows that america is weak
Posted by: lisa | August 6, 2008 1:03 AM