The impact of Barack Obama's foreign trip on public opinion is measured in a poll which showed Obama and John McCain statistically tied earlier in the week.
by Mark Silva
The European bounce for Barack Obama has lifted the Democratic candidate for president to the greatest advantage he has held over Republican rival John McCain, according to the results today of the newest Gallup daily tracking poll.
It's Obama 49 percent, McCain 40 percent, in the average of three days of Gallup surveys run through Saturday. The nine point edge is the biggest that Gallup has found since it started tracking opinion about Obama versus McCain in March. It follows a tour that carried Obama from Afghanistan and Iraq to Israel, Germany, France and Great Britain, which drew widespread media coverage of the candidate.
"The margin, coincident with the extensive U.S. news coverage of Obama's foreign tour, is the largest for Obama over McCain measured since Gallup began tracking the general election horse race in March,'' Gallup's Frank Newport notes.
"A key question remains as to whether this 'bounce' is short-term (as happens to bounces in some instances following intense publicity surrounding a convention) or if his lead will persist,'' adds Newport, editor-in-chief of the Gallup Poll, in a report today on the poll. "The answer... will become evident in the next several days.''
The latest numbers on Obama and McCain are the result of Gallup interviews with 2,692 registered voters conducted July 24-26, with a possible margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points.
The initial impact of Obama's trip was reported here Saturday, with Gallup daily tracking results that showed a seven-point edge for Obama, who had been statistically tied with McCain earlier in the week. It started a fairly lively discussion here in the Swamp, which invites your thoughts about the nine-pointer.
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Comments
Maybe John McC should consider his own trip abroad.
Perhaps to former US "client states" or lands who have enjoyed US military or CIA intervention in the past?
Guatemala
Colombia (er, already been there done that)
Haiti (occupied by US in earlier part of 20th C)
Korea
Okinawa
Granada
Or, my personal favorite, since it's his birthplace and also the scene of one of George Herbert Walker Bush's Greatest Military Triumphs:
Panama.
John, come on!
Show us your get up & go!
Don't let some skinny kid with a funny name from Hyde Park show you up!
You can attract hundreds of thousands to your speech.
Maybe you should have Lawrence Welk put on a free concert before hand--that might boost attendance.
Posted by: ornery | July 27, 2008 2:26 PM
Some observations:
This campaign is way too long and way too expensive.
The Republican "brand" has succeeded in dumbing down our expectations (as a country) of candidates:
Thanks to Rove's scorched-earth politics, the qualities we expect in a our leaders is turned on it's head.
Bright, articulate, charismatic=elitist, phony.
According to the rigid right, we should pick our candidate on the basis of whether you'd want to have a beer with them at the local pub.
The hypocrisy is unbelievable:
Kerry marries into Catchup wealth and he's a scoundrel, an opportunist.
McCain marries into beer wealth...it's none of your business, not fair to drag the spouses into this.
The whole campaign process has devolved into "gotcha" moments.
And race and gender are definitely a factor. As far as we've come as a country, there are still those who will not vote for a black person or a woman, regardless of their qualifications.
"Trolls" blow. Race-baiting trolls, media-bias trolls, spelling and grammar trolls. Ditto with mercenary bloggers and their alter-egos. Still, "the truth is out there", and then there's Faux News and Hate Radio.
Posted by: dt | July 27, 2008 3:52 PM
It took a 9-day tour, 200,000 Germans, meetings with several heads of state, and world-wide coverage to boot Mr. Obama's rating up by only 9 points? If I were Mr. Axelrod, I'd be worried. This kind of bump doesn't have the staying power Mr. Obama needs. It's still a long way until November.
Posted by: Ryan | July 27, 2008 4:57 PM
Posted by: dt | July 27, 2008 3:52 PM
Thank you. The perspective of a paranoid shizophrenic is invaluable.
Posted by: MJ | July 27, 2008 5:44 PM
The latest Gallup poll only has him up 7. That "bounce" will also go away. McCain's gaining in all the swing states, the polls that really matter.
Posted by: Jeff | July 27, 2008 7:40 PM
"It took a 9-day tour... to boost Mr. Obama's rating up by only 9 points?"
Posted by: Ryan | July 27, 2008 4:57 PM
Correction: The Messiah's polling did not rise 9 points, but rather 3 to 5 points to create a 9 point gap. Indeed not much of a bump for all the effort. And of course everybody's expecting the numbers to settle back to where they were in short order.
But then maybe the conventional wisdom is wrong... maybe the American electorate will wake up and say wow! If the French love him we have to elect him! and we'll see a historic landslide.
Posted by: MJ | July 27, 2008 8:44 PM
Jeff,
Look at the RCP poll averages to the left. A couple of weeks ago, Obama was up in only 5 of the 7 listed swing states. Today he is ahead in 6 and tied in one. How is McCain gaining then?
Posted by: Bubba | July 27, 2008 9:44 PM
Nine points is a landslide. Of course, it doesn't mean that much more than 90 days before the election. A lot can happen.
But what exactly is going to reverse this for McCain? I look into my crystal ball and don't see much favorable for the old geezer.
Is McCain going to get younger? Is he going to stop confusing Shiites with Sunnis? Is he going to figure out Asian geography? Is the economy going to improve? Are gas prices going to drop? Is inflation going to abate?
Somebody tell me why the American people are going to choose another four years of Republican antics?
Posted by: Richard Friedman | July 27, 2008 9:52 PM
"Only" 9 points???
If Obama is fortunate enough to beat McCain by "only" 9 points it will be a landslide victory. 9 points is a lot!
Posted by: Quippy | July 27, 2008 10:23 PM
It's good to know that someone can raise respect for the U.S.A. from the cellar, if not to the rooftop, at least to the second floor.
Instead of U.S. flag burning, we're able to see our flag being waved abroad once more..
Posted by: maggie from L.A. | July 27, 2008 11:06 PM
DT, you nailed it!!
GOBAMA!
Posted by: Susana | July 27, 2008 11:32 PM
Jeff, correction, that would be to the right, not left. Either way, out of 24 battleground states, Obama is leading in 16 and tied in one. Of course, McCain has a pretty solid lock on Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi, those crazy "swing" states.
Just wondering, why is Rasmussen so wildly off the mark with the RCP average in many states? They tend to swing from 3 to 10 points from a consolidated average of other polls.
Posted by: Bubba | July 28, 2008 12:02 AM
As a lifelong Republican who has supported Obama since well before Iowa, I saw in his foreign travels full evidence that when it comes to working with foreign leaders, he knows the drill. As for the rock-icon element (a la Berlin), I consider that fairly irrelevant. More important to me is the element of experience. True, McCain has it, but while I'm willing to forgive Shakespeare for his setting of a scene in one of his plays on the 'seacoast of Bohemia', I'm not prepared to forgive McCain on his rearranging of Middle-Eastern geography or his confusion on Shia vs Sunni. Those are important details that indicate that either he doesn't care about the details or he can't remember them, either cause being cause for concern. In regards to Obama's experience I have one simple question: How much experience did Lincoln have? I'm not in any way saying that Obama is the equal of Lincoln, but Lincoln's single term in the House of Representatives in the early 1850's is equal in length to Obama's two years in the US Senate thus far. We know what Lincoln accomplished, and with such little experience behind him. Can Obama do the same? Only time can tell, but if you think a person with tons of experience but who rearranges the geography and demographics of the Middle East is automatically the superior of one who has shown that he can handle himself with world leaders, despite his lack of experience, then you are welcome to continue in your state of delusion. I supported McCain in 2000, but that was then, this is now. McCain's train left the station eight years ago. Right now Obama's train seems to be moving along right on schedule.
Posted by: Michael N | July 28, 2008 9:15 AM
9 points. How many does he need to be ahead to win?
Posted by: Keith Lifetime Chicagoan and Southsider | July 29, 2008 5:42 PM