Barack Obama's European bounce

As predictable as the sun rising in the morning... Mark Silva's suddenly renewed interest in polls, now that some polls show good news for Silva's main man Obama.

The article makes clear that the same Gallup Poll wasn't so Obama-friendly earlier in the week. And guess who didn't write a Swamp article about THOSE polls?

No wonder The Swamp still refuses to mention the two recent polls which show widespread public recognition of the pro-Obama bias of the media. The Swamp publicizes polls that help Obama, and censors the rest.

Bruce,
That was fast. I barely posted this poll and you were there. Do you have the Swamp set as your home page? I'm honored. (and oh, a statistical tie earlier this week wasn't much of a story, sort of where it's been. A bounce at week's end is. Watch it settle down again next week.) And thanks for making the Swamp your home page.

Wow Mark, you found one out of about a dozen polls that actually show a bounce and you are all over it! Great reporting! Now go back to looking for a real job.

Another Swamp home-pager heard from. Keep it coming.

I'm new to the Swamp, but I'm liking this Mark already! :)

Thanks for the "bounce" news - like Obama, I need a bounce right about now! lol

We're still Baracking the vote in the Ville - can't wait til the Inauguration! :)

Who did they poll?

JohnE. and billr. in their mommys basement?

Why not poll the wounded troops that Obama refused to visit because he decided to play basketball instead, and then blamed it on the pentagon.

Ewww...such a leader!

Paulo

Mark,

You're doing a great job. Keep up the great, fair and balanced reporting!

Mark...It's just the rabid on speed dial. Bruce...here is a site that would interest you....
pollsthatmakeyouhappy.com...use it at your pleasure.

Are these guys serious? Pro-Obama bias? I can only attribute the fact that nobody seems to call out McCain loudly enough every time he stumbles on the facts (such as the non-existence of Czechloslovakia, the supposed Iraq-Pakistan border, not knowing the difference between Sunni and Shiite -- the list goes on) on a pro-McCain media bias. Can you imagine the media howls if Obama made any ONE of those gaffes? If there is a perceived bias in favor of Obama, it is because the man actually is more intelligent that McCain, he knows more about foreign policy than McCain, he knows more about how to fix the economy, he doesn't use fear and religion as a wedge tactic, he's a stronger and more decisive leader. And the media, incredibly, fails to call out McCain when calling out is due. Obama needs to be perfect, and even when he is he gets slack. McCain can stumble away and continues to get away with it. The media needs to grow some of what Jesse Jackson would like to cut off and tell it the way it is. Telling the truth isn't bias.

Similar to his beating Hillary bounce... that is, fairly small. The numbers will tighten up again. This is going to be close in November.

Way to go, Alex!!! Very well put. McCain is a stumbling, bumbling, fumbling drone. I can't wait until the debates begin...McCains shortcomings and lack of ability to clearly articulate a position without scurrilous attacks will become so obvious, they'll stop the campaign and invoke the slaughter rule. This dope McCain is now starting to turn my stomach. He should flip-flop again, and this time, run for the border.

....Count your blessings, at least there are home-pagers to hear from. If it wasn't for them the Swamp would be full of wide eyed crickets drowning the Swamp with their violins in anticipation of the second coming. I mean HIS coming.
....I'm so glad you actually brought this up. I was watching my daily news today. The anchor brought up the trip as being very popular abroad but could possible backfire back home. So I listened and listened to him rehashing the days events, and not once did he bring up what he introduced in the story---examples of these mixed reviews back home--the back lash. So far it seems like a big fathom in the night they keep insisting exists without going to any great lengths to show how it could be detrimental. This can all change as the conservative networks take up the trip with more teeth because other news networks aren't doing much investigative reporting. Prominent news anchors in their one on one interviews don't aggressively challenge the candidate. [Neither candidate if you ask me. Probably fearing a Stanamopholoouse (or what's his name) backlash. ] Then the "liberal" commentators will make a story out of the conservative comments rather than the actual critique. Personally I think you can make such trips, but if this high profile thing becomes a precedent for American presidents--having to go through the motions of what it would look like to be a president--manipulating image to look more presidential-- America is in trouble. They easily buy image--that's how Bush and two beers got elected.

Quick geography lesson for Paulo. The basketball game in which Obama sunk a beautiful 3-pointer was in Kuwait, which is in the Middle East. The army hospital that Obama didn't visit is in Germany, which is in Europe where Obama gave that beautiful speech to a crowd of 200,000. So, you see, Obama didn't opt to play basketball instead of visiting the troops. It happened at different times on different continents.

So in twenty days which includes a period of the most shockingly fawning one sided media coverage in the history of presidential races, Obama goes from 48-42 to 48 to 41.

Wow. Why am I not impressed?

If that is a "bounce" according to your definition, then I stand corrected.

Obama performed magnificently this week. Superbly.
No American has been so well received in Europe since Charles A. Lindbergh.
Since he's back in Chicago now, why doesn't the Mayor throw him a ticker tape parade of welcome?

No, the Swamp isn't my home page, Mark. Just happened to be on it at the right time. But since you asked me a question, guess in fairness I get to ask you one. Do you really expect anyone (even leftists) to take seriously your "If Obama and McCain are tied, it's not a story" bit?

good stuff. He wouldn't have needed the bounce had he not trended center and betrayed us on the F.I.S.A. vote. Still needs clinton to win I think.

A note to Quippy:

Obama refused to visit wounded soldiers in Germany because he couldn't bring in his 'suck-up' media friends.

This NEWS is all over the world....including America!

I guess a " beautiful three pointer " is more important to you and Obama than visiting [our] wounded soldiers that fight for our freedoms and protect us.

There's no 24 second clock on terrorism or American Soldiers....Quippy.

Paulo

A recent poll shows Obama beating McCain in his home state of Arizona. June's fundraising numbers also show that Obama raised more money than McCain in Arizona. The people that know McCain best don't even like him. Obama will win by a landslide in November!

Louis, you dolt, the jump was from 2 points (45-43) to 7 points (48-41). The poll you quote (47-41) is during the trip. Some people will trip all over themselves to spin the news their way.

i bet obama can wait for the debate. there's no telepromters there. who's going to tell him what to say. well i can't wait he will be exposed.

Since John McCain is whining about not getting enough coverage, how about The Swamp and other media outlets report on his many errors or lack of knowledge of foreign countries and their locations. Gee, you would think he KNEW where Afghanistan borders with what other country. Oh, please forgive me, dumb me...I just remembered McCain has been focused on Iraq and forgot about Afghanistan and where it is located. Oh, and by the way, he does not know foreign history---he wants to help Chechoslovakia!!! He DID NOT KNOW that country split into the Chech Republic and Slovakia in 1993!! Fifteen years ago!! Poor man. He wants coverage, let's get it out there!!! People have a need to know!!

I think Jon Stewart illustrated the reason for this bounce in the polls...

http://www.crooksandliars.com/2008/07/25/daily-show-obama-in-berlin-vs-mccain-in-the-supermarket/

Even bush now is leaning toward Obama's direction on Iraq. Texas oilman T. Bone Pickens agrees with Obama that we can't drill our way out of the energy crisis. Obama, dear haters, has become the acting president ... like it or not.

Are these guys serious? Pro-Obama bias? I can only attribute the fact that nobody seems to call out McCain loudly enough every time he stumbles on the facts (such as the non-existence of Czechloslovakia, the supposed Iraq-Pakistan border, not knowing the difference between Sunni and Shiite -- the list goes on) on a pro-McCain media bias. Can you imagine the media howls if Obama made any ONE of those gaffes? If there is a perceived bias in favor of Obama, it is because the man actually is more intelligent that McCain, he knows more about foreign policy than McCain, he knows more about how to fix the economy, he doesn't use fear and religion as a wedge tactic, he's a stronger and more decisive leader. And the media, incredibly, fails to call out McCain when calling out is due. Obama needs to be perfect, and even when he is he gets slack. McCain can stumble away and continues to get away with it. The media needs to grow some of what Jesse Jackson would like to cut off and tell it the way it is. Telling the truth isn't bias.

Posted by: Alex | July 26, 2008 8:42 PM
--------------------
By not putting McCain's huge booboos out there to the public, the media outlets are cottling McCain. We already know NBC tried to cover up McCain's disipicable comments regarding Senator Obama. Please do not cottle this man, I know he is elderly but if you have to "protect" him from his own stupidity, then he has NO business running for president!! McCain has become a big joke on foreign affairs and the economy.

Gallops Lydia Saad stated-While Obama may have thus far recieved a MODEST bounce from the massive plubicity surrounding this weeks trip, his ability to sustain or build on that, as opposed to having it dissapate along with news coverage of the trip--could hinge on major US media outlets and conservatives vs liberal commentators portray his performance abroad in coming days.

Nice to hear someone from Gallop point out that media can sway polls. Not that it isn't obvious, but some liberal media would like to just say that Obama is getting more of our attention because he new and more interesting HA.

So, for all that money and all that media hype over the week he got 7 points hmmm, not much of an investment ha ha.

Quite seriously, Bruce: Look at the trend line. A two point spread earlier in the week was not news. They've been there for a long time. Fact that they are running so close for a long time in this survey is a story, and we've reported that often. Fact that Obama gets a bounce from his European trip is a story. Deal with it.

John McCain needs to be more careful what he asks for some more.

McCain wanted Obama to go to Iraq and Obama ended up looking and sounding more presidential than ever.

The next thing McCain needs to be careful of is getting more media coverage. During his many missteps he won't always have Joe Lieberman to whisper in his ear ala Nancy Reagan or that bastion of conservatism at CBS as led by Katy Couric to delete his interview gaffes.

The more I hear McCain gaffe away, the more concerned I am that if he were to win thge presidency, we might be looking at a situation like what happened in 85-86 when Reagan's senior staff contemplated invoking the 25th amendment and removing Reagan from office due too what later turned out to be early stages of Alzheimers.

John McCain is just too big a risk to be president.

Please educate all of us as to what exactly has Obama done for the State of illinois and the city of Chicago ??? We really would like to know more than just hear pretty words, chants, speeches etc.. A headline in a German magazine said " Change Germans cannot believe in " So why does the media over here actually think that we can believe in Obama ?? We can thank the media for trashing Hillary - they certainly spit on her . Now we have to hear about Obama for about another hundred days and you can bet that during that time there will be a major scandal involving him. I just hope it comes before he prances around in Denver - drinking his lattes .

Must be media bias. Obama had 1/4 million people, McSame had 5 people while chewing on a brat. Can't imagine why the coverage and impressions were so skewed. Oh, and McSame whining like a baby "look over here I have a shiny new brat in my hand" is SOOO PRESIDNENTIAL.

There is a secondary event that I've seen happening this week that is new. That is, the appearance of comments in many of the blogs questioning Senator McCain's conduct as a POW. I am not sure if this is coming from the far right or far left. In addition his marital conduct, inclusion in the Keating Five, and other history are being highlighted.

I might add, Quippy, that the new McCain ad showing Obama shooting a 3-pointer instead of visiting the troops in Germany (according to them) is blatantly dishonest use of footage. The 3-point shot they use is the one the whole world saw Obama make while playing basketball WITH the troops in Kuwait.

And why would you expect Paulo to know the difference between Kuwait and Germany. McCain doesn't know there's been no Czechoslovakia for 15 years

Hold your breath Bruce.

Im still waiting for McCain to post a bounce.

I hope he uses the same ball Bush did.

Loren T Kilp

Wages are stagnant, prices rising dangerously, government spending out of control, Federal Reserve creation of money and credit out of control, debts of every kind at record levels and one-half the Army occupying the Middle Eastern oil fields.

AAARRRGGG!!!

Ex Republican

Let me correct your error in reporting, Hillary did not quit, she ran her campaign to the end so ALL of the US had a chance to vote, as opposed to Obam who wanted to leave out FL and MI. Which turned out to be a crooked finish for them.
Democrat turned Republican

ewwwwwww! "Why not poll the wounded troops that Obama refused to visit because he decided to play basketball instead, and then blamed it on the pentagon."

Hey, Paulo! Stop regurgitating half-baked lumps of bile cookie. The so-called deduction of yours I've chosen to highlight above indicates a depth of understanding that could only come from someone who was there, with the press. All your doing is repeating someone else's words, and you're not even doing it accurately.

People like you are going to give Obama the election! Please, if you're going to make a point at The One's expense, at least read the web or the newspaper a little more slowly! In other words, give yourself a chance to understand what you're reading, just like McCain does.
Keep The World (and the U.S.) safe from The One.

let obama win, it will decrease in crime

Let's see: early in the week Obama declines 2% in the above Gallup Poll, from 47% to 45%.

That's not "news" by Swamp standards.

Later in the week Obama climbs 3%, from 45% to 48%.

That IS "news" by Swamp standards.

2% decline=Not News
3% climb=News.

Better still: from July 10 to July 17th Obama declined 3% in the above poll. Which is NOT "news". But Obama's recent 3% climb in the polls IS "news".

3% Obama decline=Not News
3% Obama climb=News

Makes sense to me!

..... McCain and Obama are both pulling our leg. The fact is that this election process has been so long that it's not necessary nor realistic for either of them to seek media attention on a continued basis. Keeping in mind the Swamp item on the average voter political savvy--- still more on the superficial level: "I'm a Rep or a Dem because my parents were Reps or Dems. I like him because he talks well." Keeping in mind the Swamp item that brought up polls in a survey which portrayed the publics attitudes towards both candidates---neither one *convinces* the public on the ability to significantly solve major problems like oil prices or climate change. The length of the election process combines with the superficial level that speaks to voters, and the fact that the public really doesn't see either capable of making a big change. This means that you are left with the superficial back and forth jabs which determine voters image of you. You can only keep your jabs on for so long before they wear out ----- just like keeping your message out there--the longer it's out the more worn out it becomes. Sooooo in order to keep you message effective you have to sit back for it to keep its potency in tact. I believe that a spokesperson for the Obama campaign said it best--it's all about timing. This is a timing game. As we move further into this 100 day election period both candidates will begin to focus on each other more. If they had been heatedly jiber jabbing since Obama 'took' the primary--keeping their names on a lengthy exhibition in the national media 24/7 (like Hillary and Obama) by now, we the public, would be all voting for the Ralph Nadar party.
....The media is NOT cuddling McCain. The medias most likely doesn't want to be accused of the silly season again. Why? Because when bringing up McCain's many gaffes, they also have to bring up Obama's many gaffes. All of this back and forth countered by the reality that when it comes to American politicians, with all of their schooling and charm, sometimes their world knowledge is lacking. Or as they say they have knack for "misspeaks."

Posted by: Paulo | July 26, 2008 8:08 PM -right on brother, I couldn't agree more : )

That was pretty annoying hearing that "no bump" B.S. early in the week.

These idiots acted like the American Public follows this stuff in real time.

Here's a clue, media gurus:

Most low-info voters (which means most US voters, period) didn't even realize Obama was out of the country until they saw it on the news Monday evening.

Oh you right wingers. Take a trip to Real Clear Politics on the web. There you will see several mainstream polls showing Obama with a 6-7 point lead in the last week. One of them is Randy Rasmussens's poll. He is a known consevative,who regularly shows up on Fox. He shows Obama with a 6 pt. lead.More importantly take a look at the electoral map poll of polls. Not only has Obama held the 252 EV's Kerry had,but he now leads in New Mexico, Colorado, and New Hampshire, and tied with McCain in Florida, Ohio, and Virginia and Missouri. He will easily be over the 270 mark.

Folks,

You are blogging at a liberal newspaper. What do you expect?

So called some-what experts like Mark and talking heads fail to recognize that in a national election, it's not always the smartest guy or the guy who remembers facts well win!

Look at the modern era of elections, is it always the apparent smarter guy end up winning? Look at 04, 00, 88, 84, or 80.

At this point it looks very good for Obama, he has most of the democratic states locked up at this point. The states in play are almost ALL Republican. They are fighting over Republican states, of which McCain will have to sweep almost ALL the battle ground states and even then would just eek out a electoral win. If there are only 10-or 11 battleground states and you need only one to win it makes your chances a lot better then the person who needs them all to win.

Due to the Republican brand this year, there is almost zero chance McCain will be able to flip Democratic states.

McCain, with the hiring of the Bush/Rove campaign guy has gone very negative. A move that will please the base but could hurt with Inds. Especially after McCain called these people evil and said there was a special place in Hell reserved for them and how he was going to run an honorable and up-lifting campaign.

McCain needs a huge game changer, war with Iran, a great debate performance, something that would change the dynamics of the race. But seeing how lately he has made gaffes every time he opens his mouth and his advisor said yesterday that McCain's answers during Town Halls isn't the official campaign positions, the likelihood of a great debate is remote. That leaves war with Iran as the only option to try to rally the country behind the Republicans.

Ok, Mark, you seem relatively informed and have done some research.

What states are in play now mean nothing come four months from now.

What polls say now means nothing in November. Just ask JFK.

Yes, McCain has emarked on an attacking strategy, which many people said don't work well with Inds.

Unfortunately, however distaste that's, it has always worked. Ask Dems about Swift Boat (in tearing down a war veteran's record) or ask HFord.

I am sure you know why negative often works, right? You are the highly-regarded journalist or well-paid guy.

It will be interesting to see if the World Tour bounce widens over the next week. It was hard to spin this as anything other than a good week for Obama and a bad one for McCain. McCain goads Obama to take a trip to Iraq and Afghanistan. Obama takes trip, looks presidential, is greeted by adoring crowds, meets with world leaders, has Iraq withdrawal plan endorsed by Maliki. Has Afghanistan policy implicitly endorsed by Bush Administration. McCain rides in golf cart with Bush Sr., does photo-op in grocery store, dines at Schmidt's Sausage Shop, whines about media coverage for Obama, practically calls him a traitor, makes one gaffe after another (Czechoslovakia, Iraq-Pakistan border, surge timetable, etc.), criticizes Obama for planning 3 months ahead (presidential transition). I'm sorry. The polls might be close, but this is NOT a close race.

Posted by: Paulo | July 26, 2008 8:08 PM -right on brother, I couldn't agree more : )
Posted by: Teresa | July 27, 2008 11:27 AM

Too bad you didn't read the posts that corrected him. But, hey, truth be damned.

And by the way, I before E except after C (5:46 AM). You might have been busy throwing spit balls in class the day that rule was taught. Try to pay better attention and learn something.

McCain is just solidifing his image as an old crazy guy, there is no way this guy wins. He makes gaff after gaff. He doesn't know basic facts about common knowledge, he is going to get killed in the debates.

DD-as long as you keep reading my posts.....it's all I care about, it's important for the reprograming. Paulo is my brother, do you expect me not to suuport him !

Mark S.-I have to agree, this was a lame attempt to tell the public something really big came out of this HUGE trip with HUGE media cover. His numbers on your graph above show them 6 apart also. I think a story about Obama not picking up what they had hoped for for all the effort would have been more interesting.

Texas oilman T. Bone Pickens agrees with Obama that we can't drill our way out of the energy crisis.
Posted by: Dave | July 27, 2008 4:03 Am- sorry to burst your little bubble, but T. Boone Pickens was brought before congress by Pelosi only for her to find out he supported oil drilling. Was she ever mad...told him he misrepresented himself and he denied that charge, saying he supports all options, oil drilling here, being one of them.

I am surprised this isn't all in the news, oh, well, that's because they are talking of Mr Pickens, but leaving the OIL DRILLING part out ha haha.

OK you McSAME people. Here are the facts:

1) There is NO liberal bias in the media. There is a new non-partisan study published in the LA Times that states that Obama is scrutinized nearly twice as much as McSAME (as Bush). FACT. McSAME has a million agredius gaffes, and never gets called on it. The Man thinks Pakistan is bordered by Iraq for god sake. Not someone I would want in charge of the nukes.

2) Obama was scheduled to visit the troops, and was told by the Bush Admin and the Millitary that it would be considered a campaign stop, and to cancel it. In an effort to not politicize the stop, they cancelled it. Attacking someones patriotism is a tenant of fascisim. So the real question is, why do you folks who attack Senator Obama's partriotism hate America so much?

All you Ditto Heads on the right are fed a steady stream of crap, and you eat it up. The fact of the matter is McSame has flip flopped on so many issues it makes your head spin. (insert list here).

1) 9/11 happened on the republicans watch. Period.

2) The Necons LIED to you and fabricated a reason to go to war with Iraq. Luckly 9/11 happened to bolster the necons reason for the war.

3) The Necons have deregulated corporate America so much, that we are turning into a banana republic.

Our country needs to re-prioritze.

IF ANYONE VOTES FOR MCSAME AND THE NECONS, THEY SHOULD HAVE THEIR HEAD EXAMINED.

Mark-

1 Not true, if you take the millions of times they reported on Obama's Rev Wright jazz (only senseless repeats not questions about BLT) it may appear he's been attacked more. You need to watch McCain's video on the media....Chris Mathews with tingles up his legs ha. Candy Crawly making a joke about McCain's wife being a Stepford Wife while she's head of a corporation and nothing said when Obama's little woman became re-invented as a stay at home mom ha. It goes on an on. It is severely bias and we all know it ha.

2 The Pentagon never told Obama he couldn't visit the troops, he just had to leave his big plans behind and go as a Senator.

3What is a Ditto Head?

4(CBS) In describing the reasons he believes the Republicans' presumptive nominee for president would be better prepared than the Democrats' to lead the nation next January, Sen. Joe Lieberman said that history shows the United States would likely face a terrorist attack in 2009.

"Our enemies will test the new president early," Lieberman, I-Conn., told Face The Nation host Bob Schieffer. "Remember that the truck bombing of the World Trade Center happened in the first year of the Clinton administration. 9/11 happened in the first year of the Bush administration."
We won't someone in there with no doubt about his pledge to America over all other countries. Not some unconditional visit with Iran.

It's about judgment, my friends....

"And I believe that the success will be fairly easy" and "There's no doubt in my mind that... we will be welcomed as liberators. [John McCain 3/24/03]

"I think we could go in with much smaller numbers than we had to do in the past... I don't believe it's going to be nearly the size and scope that it was in 1991." [John McCain 9/15/02]

"There's not a history of clashes that are violent between Sunnis and Shias. So I think they can probably get along." [John McCain 4/23/03]

"Look, we're going to send young men and women in harm's way and that's always a great danger, but I cannot believe that there is an Iraqi soldier who is going to be willing to die for Saddam Hussein, particularly since he will know that our objective is to remove Saddam Hussein from power."
[John McCain 9/15/02]

"But the fact is, I think we could go in with much smaller numbers than we had to do in the past. But any military man worth his salt is going to have to prepare for any contingency, but I don't believe it's going to be nearly the size and scope that it was in 1991." [John McCain 09/15/02]

"He's a patriot who has the best interests of his country at heart." ]John McCain on Ahmed Chalabi, 2002]

"Absolutely. Absolutely." [John McCain, asked by Chris Matthews, "you believe that the people of Iraq or at least a large number of them will treat us as liberators?" 03/12/03]

I think the victory will be rapid, within about three weeks. [John McCain, MSNBC, 1/28/03]

It's clear that the end is very much in sight. ... It won't be long. It, it'll be a fairly short period of time. [John McCain, ABC, 4/9/03]

We're either going to lose this thing or win this thing within the next several months. [Meet The Press, 11/12/06]

"Well, then why was there a banner that said mission accomplished on the aircraft carrier?" [John McCain, responding to assertion by Fox News' Neil Cavuto that "many argue the conflict isn't over," [John McCain, 06/11/03]

"My friends, the war will be over soon, the war for all intents and purposes although the insurgency will go on for years and years and years." [John McCain, 02/25/08]

McCain is NOT fit to be president. Do not make the same mistake of electing another Bush to office.

Well it's no surprise. People are fed up. And the countries who were once allies, are now enemies. The ones who still stick by us are praying that America changes and stops being such bull headed idiots. I agree. That's one of the hundreds of reasons I voted Obama. He may not be the best. But he's the best for now.