by Naftali Bendavid
A few days ago John McCain ordered the second big shake-up of his presidential campaign, elevating adviser Steve Schmidt in an attempt to focus his message and improve his organization.
The move reportedly came after growing concerns, inside the campaign and among Republican leaders, about the state of McCain's operation. The feeling, apparently, was that McCain has not developed an effective message and squandered opportunities during the Democrats' bitter primary battle. Others have worried about the quality of some of McCain's campaign events, and about an unwieldy organization that involved a group of relatively autonomous regional directors.
According to The New York Times, Schmidt actually warned McCain two weeks ago that unless he retooled his operation, he was in danger of losing the election.
All of this raises the question: Just how much trouble is McCain in?
The presumptive Republican candidate, after all, already faces headwinds that would be daunting for even the most polished campaign. Polls show the public is deeply dissatisfied with President Bush and the GOP. Democratic enthusiasm and voter registration are high. Voters are dissatisfied with the economy and the Iraq war, and appear to be ready for a change. McCain, with his reputation for independence, is possibly the Republican with the best shot at overcoming these obstacles, but even his campaign acknowledges the challenges.
On top of that, Democrat Barack Obama has shown the capacity to raise enormous sums of money, and his campaign has proven adept at political basics like field organizing and voter turnout.
The first point to make, however, is that it's still early in the campaign; in essence, it's just begun. Any prediction about how things will look in November are premature. Political analysts like to point out that Michael Dukakis at one point held a 17-point lead over George H.W. Bush in the 1988 election, and proceeded to lose handily. McCain and Obama have not chosen their running mates, addressed their conventions, held debates or aired most of their television ads. Voters generally do not make their decisions until much later in the campaign, although this one has generated unusual early interest. And events beyond the control of either campaign could still affect the outcome, from an improvement in the economy to a downturn in Iraq.
Moreover, McCain has always relied on a freewheeling style of campaigning, rather than an ironclad discipline, and it's worked well for him. In 2000, McCain put a scare into the powerful Bush campaign with a seat-of-the pants, insurgent effort that involved bull sessions with reporters, given-and-take with voters and a certain exuberance. In the current campaign, McCain was considered politically dead last summer; he overhauled his campaign, returned to a stripped-down, spontaneous style more comfortable for him, and proceeded to knock off Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani and other formidable rivals.
The question McCain faces is whether this looser style of campaigning is enough to carry him to victory against a well-financed, highly organized general election opponent. With four months until election day, McCain trails in most national polls, although by less than one might expect given the public's view of Republicans. He probably has to run an exceedingly skilled campaign, or catch fire in some way, to pull off a victory in November. His margin for error is small.
For now, Schmidt has impressive credentials, and it's likely he can impose more discipline and a tighter message than the McCain operation has managed so far. But ultimately, McCain has to be the freewheeling maverick; that's how he got to where he is, and when he's tried to rein that side of his character he has not fared well.
Before long, we'll know if it's enough.
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Comments
Obama has bales of corproate dollars and a well-oiled campaign machine behind him (ably run by Chicago Mayor Richard Daley's chief stooge David Axelrod)... and yet he has been unable to create the substantial lead one would expect given the unpopularity of Bush crippling the GOP.
McCain has a shot at the White House, but yes, he must retool and more importantly focus.
Posted by: MJ | July 6, 2008 10:20 AM
I don't think Senator " Questionable Conduct " McCain is in as much trouble, as his and President Bush's Party, the Republican are. After all, President Bush could not have achieved all of the blunders he has initiated without the undying support of the Republican Party. They have been stymying and filibustering the Democrats and have lowered the reputation of our Congress, in the name of the Republican Agenda !!
SUPPORT OUR TROOPS, BRING THEM HOME, ALIVE AND WHOLE. NOW.
Posted by: Don Fitzgerald, Chicago | July 6, 2008 10:27 AM
I respect Senator Mc Cain for his service of this country.
With all due respect I think he would make a terrible president and I don't think the American people will vote for him or any republican in November.
Old style politics that the republicans are using will backfire in the general election.
The main problem with the Senator's run for president is he does not have a platform he represents a 3rd Bush term if you analyze what his campaign has been about and what he frames as his platform are identical to that of George Bush.
Americans will have to last word and that will be GET OUT OF IRAQ as soon as humanly possible another 100 years in Iraq are totally unacceptable to most Americans.
Obama represents the kind of CHANGE that Americans want to believe in. There are some Americans that are pre-conditioned with old beliefs which seperated our great country and violated civil and human rights and standards.
The November 2008 general election will bury all those years of hatred and violations of civil rights.
World leaders will welcome and cooperate with Obama because his message is fresh and his face is new, these 2 reasons are good enough to vote for Obama in Nivember 2008.
Here is a couple of links to a couple of video's that are very inspirational and were created by ordinary Americans and celebrities alike who support OBAMA:
http://www.dipdive.com/dip-politics/wato/
NEXT Check out: Unite for Change.
Tens of thousands of people attended Unite for Change meetings in all 50 states. Watch the video and get involved in your community.
http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/UFCvideo/
Posted by: Lou | July 6, 2008 11:37 AM
Why would McCain be in trouble? Other then the liberal media's hope that he is, there's more positive momentum to this candidate then Obama. Obama’s got more baggage then an airport with dirty real estate deals, bigot ministers and associations with radicals like Louis Farrakhan to name a few. Is Obama’s campaign in trouble? I would have to think that most of the Obama hype is just that. How does he plan to win the South? If someone thinks the polls are accurate about any momentum in the South it’s a pipe dream. No white evangelical Christian will vote for Obama, this is not supposition this is a fact. Anyone who thinks that he can win this vote has no idea how these people believe. I live among them now and although their prejudice is keep very quit, they show up in masses to vote, just as they did when JF Kerry was out polling Bush in 04. There is an underground movement that is very well organized and very well funded through certain Christian publishing companies that gets into action come October.
In the Northeast and Midwest the White blue collar worker will stay home or vote McCain as a rule. In fact it makes more sense to vote McCain based on the issues. The other misconception is that the Jews will vote for a Black as they did for JF Kerry. I lived in a predominantly Jewish neighborhood in NY and South Florida prior to my move to Georgia and the Jews have no use for any black leaders in this country, none. For the geriatric Florida vote to go Black Obama would have to convert to Judaism and his mother would have had to be Jewish just to get 50 percent.
Lieberman will ensure a McCain victory come November in Florida and other Jewish voting blocks. In fact I believe that some Hollywood long time faithful will go McCain silently not to lose face with their Party. If Powell jumps on McCain’s bandwagon this will further infuriate the White Conservative Christian base who will now feel betrayed by the actions of a perceived traitor based solely on the fact that Obama’s Black.
You’re probably asking what I base my predictions on based on my comments other then wishful thinking. Obama is an arrogant, sometimes obnoxious campaigner. He’s made reference to rearranging the White House décor and has presumed a win in November to the point of belittling his opponent. As I listen to my neighbors and hear the anger in their voices I see how this self confident sometimes cocky, condescending candidate has angered them. No one likes a bragger or an overconfident, self indulgent servant of the people. Come November Obama will lose just as Kerry did in 04. His Black support will carry him to a better showing because they will get out the vote but it will not be enough. Add up the negatives and it doesn’t matter what the polls say, he’s lost the White House and his supporters realize that they need to create this last ditch propaganda effort to capture any hope of a November victory coming down the home stretch.
Posted by: ken m | July 6, 2008 11:37 AM
The Repuglicans are just about finished as a political party. McCain has to be the most incompetent candidate that has ever run for the office.
Imagine being a Republican right now....watching the "straight talk express" running off the rails every other day.
First McCain's acting like Bush, then he's a "maverick" again, then McCain is Bush's evil twin again, then he's back to his "maverick" act again, then McCain goes back to the Rove/Bush lovefest.
I get dizzy just trying to follow this old guy.
Obama should win this by 20 points, especially with old man "blinky" carrying the GOPer water this year:
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http://s144.photobucket.com/albums/r163/InsultComicDog/?action=view¤t=McCainBlink.gif
Posted by: John E | July 6, 2008 2:26 PM
Obama is exactly what the country needs, an articulate, intelligent, level-headed THINKER. He has never been arrogant, condescending, belittling, or obnoxious. Those traits belong to bush, cheney, and mcinsane.
Posted by: Peridot | July 6, 2008 3:03 PM
Obama has bales of corproate dollars and a well-oiled campaign machine behind him (ably run by Chicago Mayor Richard Daley's chief stooge David Axelrod)... and yet he has been unable to create the substantial lead one would expect given the unpopularity of Bush crippling the GOP.
Posted by: MJ | July 6, 2008 10:20 AM
Clown,
You trying to tie Obama to dirty Chicago politics is laughable and as far as Rezko goes, he already had a trial and Obama's name only came up once...in passing.
This is what you call "dirty politics, you fool:
McCain received more than $100,000 in contributions by Keating to McCain’s campaigns in the 80’s, as well as close to $400,000 in money invested by Cindy McCain and her father in a business venture with Charles Keating and multiple personal trips at Keating’s expense and on his company’s airplane as well as money being siphoned to political campaigns.
No wonder Cindy McCain is proud of America – look at what it does for people that have her money and connections.
During the Savings and Loan crisis in the 1980s, one institution, the Lincoln Savings & Loan was owned by American Continental Corporation – which was run by Charles Keating. Due to "bad loans", it became insolvent. When Keating made some shady deals regarding selling real estate investments that caught the eye of federal investigators, he asked McCain and 4 other Senators (hence the "Keating 5") to whom he made donations for some political cover (read: quash the investigation).
"At Keating's behest, four senators--McCain and Democrats Dennis DeConcini of Arizona, Alan Cranston of California, and John Glenn of Ohio--met with Ed Gray, chairman of the Federal Home Loan Bank Board, on April 2. Those four senators and Sen. Don Riegle, D-Mich., attended a second meeting at Keating's behest on April 9 with bank regulators in San Francisco".
http://www.slate.com/id/1004633
Regulators did not seize Lincoln Savings and Loan until two years later. The Lincoln bailout cost taxpayers $2.6 billion, making it the biggest of the S&L scandals. In addition, 17,000 Lincoln investors lost $190 million.
McCain and the other four Senators wanted the investigation into Keating to end and tried to prematurely shut it down. Eventually, Keating was convicted, served in prison before his sentence was overturned and he was charged with additional crimes, for which his sentence was "time served" of four years.
And what was the financial relationship between John and Cindy McCain and Charles Keating?
This is where Mrs. "Proud to be an America" McCain and the "Straight talker" himself come in. McCain likes to claim that Keating was "just a constituent" that he was helping out, but if you look even the smallest bit below the surface, you will find how much "straight talk" there is there. In the mid to late 1980s, with the investigation into Lincoln starting in 1987. Coincidentally, 1987 was the first year McCain was in the Senate, after two terms in the House.
McCain's campaign donations from his "constituent". Among the Keating 5, McCain received the most in contributions – around $112,000 between 1982 and 1987. But it wasn’t just the campaign contributions that McCain received.
"After McCain's election to the House in 1982, he and his family made at least nine trips at Keating's expense, three of which were to Keating's Bahamas retreat. McCain did not disclose the trips (as he was required to under House rules) until the scandal broke in 1989. At that point, he paid Keating $13,433 for the flights.
Not only the contributions. Not only the multiple trips on Keating’s expense (well, really the taxpayers, since it was the taxpayers who bailed him out). But breaking House rules by not disclosing this until after he ran interference for Keating and the scandal broke."
http://www.slate.com/id/1004633
How’s that for straight talk?
Oh and here's another nugget about Mrs "Always been proud of America's" involvement with Keating.
On Oct. 8, 1989, The Republic revealed that McCain's wife and her father had invested $359,100 in a Keating shopping center in April 1986, a year before McCain met with the regulators.
When this story broke, McCain did nothing to help himself. When reporters first called him, he was furious. Caught out in the open, the former fighter pilot let go with a barrage of cover fire. Sen. Hothead came out in all his glory.
''You're a liar,''' McCain snapped Sept. 29 when a Republic reporter asked him about business ties between his wife and Keating.
''That's the spouse's involvement, you idiot,'' McCain said later in the same conversation. ''You do understand English, don't you?''
He also belittled the reporters when they asked about his wife's ties to Keating.
But the reporter wasn’t the liar. McCain was the liar. And his actions to cover up and obstruct justice resulted in a huge cost to the American taxpayers while his friend, campaign contributor, "constituent" stole money and bilked investors.
I wonder how much less this would have cost We the People had Mr. straight-talking-campaign-finance-reformer-"maverick" not intervened and obstructed justice for his buddy?
Posted by: John E | July 6, 2008 3:45 PM
You can bet the barn--every two weeks between now and November, the New York Slimes will state that some Republican candidate is in trouble. And you can also bet that the Swamp will repeat what the Slimes writes.
Happens every two years. To the NY Slimes and their Midwest tag-alongs, Republicans are ALWAYS in trouble. Or more accurately, every two weeks they'll SAY the Republicans are in trouble, just like every two weeks during WWII Joseph Goebbels predicted that Britain would soon fall.
Another propaganda piece by Obama's Online Campaign Newsletter, the newsletter that predicted an Obama landslide in the New Hampshire primary.
Posted by: Bruce | July 6, 2008 6:21 PM
This election will not be as much about McCain as it will be about the people voting against Obama. Just look at the primary tallies; he lost to Hillary in major states because he couldn't get sufficient white votes. Does anyone really think that's going to change in November? When he's doing his campaigning in black churches? That really sends a message to whites. Prediction: McCain by 10 million votes.
Posted by: Sanford | July 6, 2008 6:31 PM
Clown,You trying to tie Obama to dirty Chicago politics is laughable and as far as Rezko goes, he already had a trial and Obama's name only came up once...in passing.
Posted by: John E | July 6, 2008 3:45 PM
I hadn't even mentioned Tony Rezko, so thank you for bringing him up, blubber head!
Of course we all know about Obama's 17 year relationship with the fragrant Mr Rezko, and the money and the favors. But here's a very poignant piece from the Boston Globe that gives some very detail to just how Obama's constituents suffered in Rezko's housing -- built with Obama's help.
http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2008/06/27/grim_proving_ground_for_obamas_housing_policy/
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Once again, thank you John E for reminding us all.
Posted by: MJ | July 6, 2008 9:44 PM
The only people who are in trouble are those who believe all this "media" hip that McCain is in trouble. They will end up with a lot of egg on there faces.
VJ Machiavelli
http://www.vjmachiavelli.blogspot.com
Posted by: VJ Machiavelli | July 6, 2008 10:07 PM
favors. But here's a very poignant piece from the Boston Globe that gives some very detail to just how Obama's constituents suffered in Rezko's housing -- built with Obama's help.
Posted by: MJ | July 6, 2008 9:44 PM
The outer Stooge,
You are making a fool of yourself again, no one cares about what happened in some neighborhood that Obama once worked in and Rezko isn't working for you Wingnuts anymore either.
Everywhere you turn your own Prez candidate, McBush, has not only done what you accuse Obama of doing but he has done worse.
Phil Gramm is lobbying for the banks during the mortgage crisis while advising the McCain campaign at the same time on its economic policies.
Phil Gramm is implicated in two huge scandals: the sub-prime mess (via his UBS lobbying) and the oil price hike (via the Enron loophole). These are two heavy duty cons that are crippling middle-class Americans. Oh, and he's McCain's Economic advisor. Change you can believe in? Go figure.
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9LWU3V5JTLM
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Once again, thankyou for making us laugh at you again...
Posted by: John E | July 6, 2008 11:08 PM
Obama has bales of corproate dollars and a well-oiled campaign machine behind him (ably run by Chicago Mayor Richard Daley's chief stooge David Axelrod)...
Posted by: MJ | July 6, 2008 10:20 AM
Mrs Jones,
I'm glad you keep lying about Obama's ties to old time Chicago politics, it reminds me of this reality with McCain
McCain has money woes and he's trying to fix them with his continued ties to crooked lobbyists:
The lobbyist money bundlers also reopen an issue that has dogged McCain's campaign for months: its reliance on lobbyists.
There are at least 70 current and past lobbyists who have bundled for his campaign, according to Public Citizen.
One of them, Thomas G. Loeffler, quit in May as a finance chairman after McCain instituted a more restrictive conflict-of-interest policy in response to concerns about lobbyists working for him. Loeffler's firm had lobbied for Saudi Arabia.
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http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/news/articles/0706mccainbundlers07060.html
I also like this admission by McCain:
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"I believe there have been times where I have probably been influenced because the big donor had - buys access to my office, and we know that access is influence. And honestly, that taints us all. It taints me" - John McCain
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7r-kOIs-W6E
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Posted by: The outer | July 7, 2008 12:20 AM
Relax. McCain himself said he'd be behind in the polls for a while, and then at the very end of the campaign, just before the election, it'll turn his way. Just relax. He'll win this thing handily.
Posted by: BWatson | July 7, 2008 12:53 AM
Relax. McCain himself said he'd be behind in the polls for a while, and then at the very end of the campaign, just before the election, it'll turn his way. Just relax. He'll win this thing handily.
Posted by: BWatson | July 7, 2008 12:53 AM
Right after the conveniently timed "terrorist" attack, right? You know the terrorist attack that McCain staffers openly talk about helping their campaign?
Posted by: Ric | July 7, 2008 10:09 AM
"...no one cares about what happened in some neighborhood that Obama once worked in..."
Posted by: John E | July 6, 2008 11:08 PM
John E,
Correction: You, it seems, don't care that poor, elderly and cloutless Obama constituents were screwed by Rezko with Obama's help. Sorry blubber head but many people do care.
Also, you keep insisting that Obama has no connection to Chicago politics... in spite of the well known fact that his entire political career is rooted in Chicago and the Cook County Democratic Party. Read any Obama biography (or have Mom read it and explain it to you) and it will verify that.
Posted by: MJ | July 7, 2008 10:40 AM