by Frank James
A new Zogby poll gives Sen. Barack Obama a six percentage point lead over Sen. John McCain in its national online poll.
UTICA, New York - As the race for President passes the Independence Day holiday and heads toward the dog days of summer, Sen. Barack Obama holds a 44% to 38% lead over Sen. John McCain in the horserace contest, but also leads by a substantial margin in a state-by-state Electoral College tally, a new Zogby Interactive poll shows.
The extensive national poll of of 46,274 likely voters also shows Libertarian candidate and former Congressman Bob Barr wins 6% support, eating into McCain's needed conservative base of support.
The online poll also gave the senator from Illinois a wide electoral college margin in those states whose results were beyond the margin of error (MoE). Obama led in states adding up to 273 electoral votes versus 158 EVs for McCain. A candidate needs 270 to win.
In 11 states totaling 107 EVs the MoE was too narrow for the state to be awarded to either candidate. There are 538 EVs all told.
Obama also beat McCain by slightly more than six points on favorability, Zogby said.
The bottom line? This poll, like those done by Gallup and others are pointing towards a very close race. But it's still only early July. We haven't had the nominating conventions or presidential debates or all the 527 TV ads yet. Then there's always the unexpected.
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Comments
This is all on the economy. Obama just crushes McCain there, and it's issue #1 for swing voters. Does the balance change after McCain's "economy tour" this week? And does he hammer Obama on drilling and taxes? Contrast is needed for JMac...
http://www.political-buzz.com/
Posted by: matt | July 7, 2008 8:15 AM
In spite of all the effort, the tons of money spent and a mostly compliant press corps Obama is still spinning his wheels at 6 points. But wait... wasn't he 12 or 15 ahead just a week or two ago?
Posted by: MJ | July 7, 2008 8:45 AM
After ignoring the Zogby Poll for months, Obama Campaign spokesman (excuse me--Swamp journalist) Frank James suddenly takes an interest in Zogby. We all know why.
Posted by: Bruce | July 7, 2008 9:56 AM
MJ yes, he was ahead by double digits (as they say) a couple of weeks ago. Maybe his flipflopping has had an effect on his poll standings. I hope the downtrend continues till he is in the minus factor. Don't want him or his insignificant other in the whitehouse.
Posted by: RFB-IL | July 7, 2008 10:42 AM
What we are seeing here is Americans starting to realize that McCain in no maverick, he abandoned that persona pandering to the extreme right wing of the GOP thereby bolstering the idea in many voters' minds that he really does represent a third Bush term. Unlike Obama's progressive supporters who can (to some extent) understand his need to strengthen some of his positions with voters by moving to the center, if McCain moves to the center particularly on issues such as climate change and immigration, he is sure to be castrated by zealots on the right who still can't (or won't) see anything wrong with the economy, the mortgage crisis, public education, the price of a dozen eggs, and the cost of a tank of gas after 8 devastating years of republican rule. The longer the hardcore right continues to operate with blinders on, the more destined they are to lose. It's almost as if they've totally forgotten about the "thumpin" they got in 06 touting their regressive policies.
Posted by: Mr. Bob Wolfe | July 7, 2008 12:15 PM
The only real poll that counts, will be conducted in November. In the meantime, Senator Obama and his political train are on the right track, to our White House. Keep running the great and honest campaign you are running, Senator Obama, you are making America and we, the Democrats, very proud. Leave the negativity and the distortions to the Republicans and their inadequate candidate, Senator McCain.
SUPPORT OUR TROOPS, BRING THEM HOME, ALIVE AND WHOLE. NOW.
Posted by: Don Fitzgerald, Chicago | July 7, 2008 12:21 PM
Don Fitzgerald
I guess a "great and honest campaign" is one that is funded by and run by large corporations, lobbyists, and the usual DC insider sources, right?
One that abandons the ideas and positions usually called "Progressive" or "Liberal" and hopes to win by out-Republicanning the Republican, right?
One that tosses around the word "change" but offers no change, right?
Posted by: MJ | July 7, 2008 12:47 PM
"I guess a "great and honest campaign" is one that is funded by and run by large corporations, lobbyists, and the usual DC insider sources, right?"
Hey, don't attack the McCain campaign like that!
Posted by: Julie | July 7, 2008 1:08 PM
Obama is still spinning his wheels at 6 points. But wait... wasn't he 12 or 15 ahead just a week or two ago?
Posted by: MJ | July 7, 2008 8:45 AM
Yes Mrs Jones,
Maybe that should be McCain's new campaign slogan..
John McCain - "Vote for me because Obama should be beating me worse than he already is"!
HAHAHA!
Posted by: Bemused | July 7, 2008 1:08 PM
Those who cheered for Obama will cry later. Their candidate Obama is only a slick spin doctor--refine, redefine everything he says carter to change in his best political advantage.
Posted by: chitown independent | July 7, 2008 5:42 PM
Since when is more than 100 electoral votes a "very close race"?
This finding may seem surprising, but it's right in line with other major electoral vote predictions based on state by state polling.
For example, statistical guru Nate Silver of PECOTA fame has Obama winning 309 to 230 for McCain over at fivethirtyeight.com.
Fundamentalist right wing stat whiz Scott Elliot has Obama in a landslide, 338 to 200 on his site, ElectionProjection.com
And Electoral-Vote.com has it 320 for Obama to 218 for McCain.
All three of these projections align well with the Zogby findings. Overall, all four projections are well within the margin of error. IOW, all four of them agree with each other.
When four different analyses from four different highly respected sources using data from hundreds of different state by state polls all agree with each other, it's a solid indicator that the numbers are probably pretty darn good.
One poll may be wrong. A single poll may be an outlier. But four very different highly sophisticated models using boatloads of data all coming up with the same answer? Bet the farm.
Barring some spectacularly catastrophic event for Obama, the most germane question may not be, "Will he win?" It may well be, "By how much?"
But I must admit, your horse race version will probably sell a lot more papers...
Posted by: Hans Metterling | July 8, 2008 12:04 AM
Sigh... I can just see it now... my kids reading an American History text book stating that the word "change" Obama throws around was the turning point for America... when Democracy was lost to Socialism...
On another note? Has anybody taken basic economics... if you did, you would know that the effects of a President can not be seen until 10, if not 15 years later...
So all you dumbells out there who think that your shitty life is the fault of Bush... well, it is most likely the fault of Clinton.
Okay, I take that back... most likely it is your fault. Everybody is accountable for their own actions. The individual decided to go and buy a house to make a quick turn around one month later on it. Come on! Haven't you learned "If it is too good to be true, then it is too good to be true".
Everybody wants instant gratification... this is why our country is the way it is.
Grow up! The government is not your parents!
Posted by: Cina | July 21, 2008 10:38 PM