Obama may get voter-turnout boost: poll

by Frank James

Voters, especially Democrats, are more interested in the coming presidential election than they've been in two decades, a trend that could significantly boost turnout and give Sen. Barack Obama a big advantage over Sen. John McCain, according to a new poll from the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press.

Another finding from the Pew poll that could augur well for Obama is that voter engagement was especially high among younger voters under 50, exactly that voter group Obama is counting on to turn out in large numbers for him.

The Obama campaign is hoping for historic levels of turnout amoung voters on the young end of the age scale in particular, voters who in past elections have typically not shown up at the polls the way older voters have. The poll suggests that such voters are psyched for Obama. The question, of course, is whether they'll stay excited about Obama all the way to the election booth.

Here's yet another interesting result: despite the good news for Obama, there was bad news for him too. Democrats weren't as unified behind him as Republicans were behind McCain. But what Obama lacked in party unity he made up for in enthusiam, an area that was a McCain weakness.

And here's why both candidates are taking such pains currently to move towards the center of the political spectrum: Pew's results suggest there exists a substantial pool of undecided swing voters out there yet to be won over.

Here's a summary from Pew:

The outlook for the presidential election at mid-year is substantially different than at comparable points in time in recent campaigns. First, turnout is likely to be higher this fall - perhaps much higher than in previous elections - as voter interest continues at record levels. Second, as has been the case since the start of the campaign, Democrats enjoy a substantial engagement advantage over Republicans that may significantly alter the composition of the November electorate.

Third, while there has been considerable debate about whether Hillary Clinton's supporters will rally behind Barack Obama in the fall, it is clear that both candidates face formidable challenges in consolidating their bases. John McCain, the presumptive GOP nominee, has an enthusiasm problem. McCain engenders less strong support than does Obama and has much weaker support than George W. Bush did at this stage in his presidential campaigns.

Finally, the middle of the electorate is reasserting itself in this election. There are more swing voters than there were at this point in the campaign four years ago. The proportion of self proclaimed independents is up from 2004 and nearly half say they are uncertain about their vote choice.

There's a lot of good information in the survey. About 55 percent of those surveyed gave Obama an A or B had provided them "for convincing them to vote for him," compared with 32 percent who gave McCain a similar grade, according to Pew.

Meanwhile, 12 percent of voters persist in believing that Obama is a Muslim, a rate little changed from March when Pew says the percentage was 10 percent. The good news for Obama is that while it hasn't gone down significantly, it also hasn't gone up. Perhaps continued efforts to underscore his Christianity through actions like his Father's Day appearance in a Chicago church or his speech about faith-based initiatives can drive down that number.

The Pew poll also got fascinating results similar to Gallup on the question of race. In short, voters tell the pollsters that it's not so much Obama being black as it's his inexperience that will harm his chances to be elected president. And that when it comes to McCain's age versus Obama's race, voters told Pew what they told Gallup, that McCain's age is more a problem than Obama's race.