The Gallup daily track today finds a contest that looks pretty much like the average of the summer's daily tracks -- a 3-point edge in a poll with a 2 percent margin of error.
by Mark Silva
One week from the opening of the Democratic National Convention, no amount of Paris Hilton or Charlton Heston have shaken Barack Obama's narrow advantage over Republican rival John McCain, and no amount of accusation that McCain, like President Bush, is "in the pocket'' of Big Oil has opened up a lead for Obama.
"The current position of the race is representative of the overall average positioning of the two candidates so far this summer,'' reports Gallup editor in chief Frank Newport, with results of a daily tracking poll today showing Obama favored among 46 percent of voters surveyed, McCain 43 percent.
McCain has challenged Obama's credentials for leadership with TV- and Web-ads likening him to the celebrity of a Hilton or the Messianic figure portrayed by Heston - indeed, McCain's ads have declared that Obama is, simply, "not ready to lead.''
And Obama has done his best to tie McCain to Bush, the continually unpopular incumbent, with the Democrat's ads equating the economic policies of the Republicans - mainly paying for a costly war and high gas prices - as pages from the same book.
But the needle of the daily track seems like more of a fluctuation in the margin of error than any indication of real movement in this historic race for the White House. The margin of error in this survey of 2,660 registered voters taken Aug. 15-17 is 2 percent.
"Although McCain moved closer to Obama in the last three reports of Gallup's tracking,'' Newport notes, "he was not able to sustain this tied position, and the bottom line is that the race appears to have once again returned to just about where it has been on average over the summer.''
This is the pre-running mate-bounce polling report, of course, though Gallup also has found that in races past the immediate gain that candidates got from their running mate announcements was short-lived. So each will get to name a mate in the three weeks ahead, both will get their nominating conventions and then, for these two candidates who haven't managed a sustained, statistically significant breakaway since June, it's:
See you in September.
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Comments
Hmm. Obama never below 45, Brand X never above.
Posted by: ornery | August 19, 2008 12:04 AM
With it obvious from recent run off elections that the Democrats are poised to win not only the presidential election but also a lot of congressional seats: why does polling show it so close. The paranoid view would say if the polls all showed a 10+ point lead who would watch all the television election coverage. who would then be watching the commercials. The media more and more owned by fewer people would of course have a republican bias but their trick is to claim there is a liberal bias. Reporters as educated studious individuals would themselves be biased to liberal views but the editorial slant would make them move to the right.
Do polls focus on phone calls and are these calls all land lines. If so of course they would be biased to older less cell oriented people eliminating polling the majority of younger more idealistic voters. how are most of these polls conducted???
Posted by: Dave | August 19, 2008 11:15 AM
It's not about age, race, gender, or religion. It's about experience, safety, freedom, and the economy ~ which spells capitalism and NOT socialism.
Polls are askance when there was never any debates between these two as Obama who is Rev Wright's little Sir Echo sounds good but cannot answer questions.
Obama's crack on Hon Clarence Thomas was not honorable and the Judge is a most worthy person who is not elite as Obama is.
Here's to Sept and come Nov and here's to McCain.
I want wisdom, experience, capitalism, and freedom with defense in place and NO socialism.
All depends whom you ask what. The media is liberally slanted and unfair. Read between the lines and don't be swept up by falsehoods.
I don't see any lead to the right by libs. They stay on course and that of libs.
I'd guess it will come down to the votes and hopefully no chad counting.
In moving on to Sept and America and what Americans want and trust and need by way of a worthy and worthwhile President.
Posted by: Lou | August 19, 2008 1:42 PM