In this Aug. 13, 2008 file photo, McCain, left, and Sen. Joseph Lieberman, I-Conn., share a laugh while speaking to reporters during a news conference in Birmingham, Mich. (AP Photo/Mary Altaffer, File)
by Frank James
More bad news for Sen. Barack Obama's campaign on the polling front. The latest George Washington University-Battleground 2008 Poll done jointly by Republican and Democratic pollsters shows that Sen. John McCain has managed to move independent voters to him to such a degree that he now leads Obama by 10 percent. Back in May, Obama led with independents by 14 percent.
Obviously, this is a huge swing. Republican pollster Brian Tringali and his Democratic counterpart Celinda Lake suggested, at a National Press Club event this morning, that some of it may be due to both Democratic and Republican candidates solidifying their respective bases, reducing the size of independent constituency in the electorate. (You can watch a recording the Tringali and Lake's event on C-Span's website.)
The Battleground 2008 poll has the race overall essentially tied with McCain at 47 percent and Obama at 46 percent. Back in May, Obama had a three percentage point lead on McCain, basically tied at that point too.
Here is a piece of the analysis (read spin) by Republican pollsters Tringali and Brian Nienaber of the Tarrance Group:
The 2008 presidential campaign is far from over. As this survey reveals, of the 13 attributes tested between the two candidates, John McCain enjoys an advantage on half of them. Indeed, McCain has seen improvement on every comparative attribute repeated in this study save one - and it is the one in which McCain enjoys his most commanding lead (the war in Iraq). This positive re-evaluation of John McCain (in comparison to Barack Obama) is the untold story of the last three months of this election.
John McCain's biggest comparative gain over the last three months has come on the issue of gas and energy prices. A plurality of voters now see him as able to do a better job on this issue. His score increased 9 points over the last three months on which of the candidates would do a better job on the energy and gas issue. At the same time, Obama dropped 13 points on this issue.
Voters have not decided who the next President will be, but they seem well on the way to doing so. While most would agree that Barack Obama has enjoyed the spotlight over the last three months, it does not appear to have paid off in any appreciable way. As voters have focused on Barack Obama, they seem to not be buying what he is selling. Further, they are not buying what Obama is selling with regard to the most important issues of the day - energy, the economy and the war.
Meanwhile, here's the analysis (read more spin) from Lake, Daniel Gotoff and Mark Keida:
For most of the summer, these dynamics combined to afford Obama a narrow, though consistent lead. At this point in the contest, however, after a continued and largely unanswered negative campaign on the part of McCain, the race is a statistical dead heat (47% for McCain to 46% for Obama). Underneath the more modest movement in the overall vote from our last poll, however, is a larger shift among independents that is of particular concern for Obama. In May, Obama led among independents by 14 points; today, McCain is winning these voters by 10 points. At the same time, voters are solidly negative in their assessment of the country (75% say we are on the wrong track), their assessment of the economy (67% say it is "just fair" or "poor"), and their disapproval of Bush's job (63% disapprove), which bodes well for Obama.
Obama still has voters to gain. Voters view him as the candidate who better embodies middle class values, is more apt to fight for "people like me" and get things done, can more capably handle the pressing issues of the economy and health care; he is also perceived as the more independent of the two candidates. Yet these advantages are not translating into a ballot advantage for Obama.
Obama has effectively claimed both the dimensions of leadership and the key issues that are central to this election. In order to start converting these advantages into real ballot support, he needs to play commandingly not just on his own turf, but on McCain's too, competing with the Republican nominee on the qualities that are central to his image: strong leadership, and advantages on Iraq and other matters of national security and foreign policy. Part of this task involves Obama continuing to establish his own bona fides on these fronts. Equally important, and heretofore missing, is exposing McCain's substantial weakness when it comes to these issues and dimensions of leadership, which remain so essential in a post-9/11 world.
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Comments
I hear the Oil companies laughing and partying already.
Posted by: Exxon loves it | August 20, 2008 11:18 AM
How does it go, Republicans, when the polls have not been in your favor, for the last 8 months? Oh, that's right !! Your complaints usually are: They're not being fare, their picking on my candidate, what do those polls mean anyway. All we ever heard from the Republicans, when they have been hit with bad numbers is to whine, whine and more whining. Well, ladies and gents, my response to the whiners is: Enjoy the good numbers, now, for tomorrow and tomorrow, you will be back to your whining. That is the only thing you, Republicans, can do well, whining. Whereas, we, Democrats, know how to win and win it will be, in November. Senator Obama is on the right track and should be chugging into the White House for his inaugural ceremonies in January !! All you fear and smear campaign will not change that !!
SUPPORT OUR TROOPS, BRING THEM HOME, ALIVE AND WHOLE. NOW.
Posted by: Don Fitzgerald, Chicago | August 20, 2008 11:20 AM
Obama must demonstrate that he will cultivate the growth of American business, not just redistribute the wealth it creates to the unions through dues extracted from workers' pay without secret-ballot elections. He must show that he values individual worker choice, protected by the secrecy of the voting booth. He must renounce the anti-Democratic Employee-free Choice Act at the DNC in Denver and commit himself to the sanctity of the true and uncoerced consent of the governed - at work as well.
Posted by: Emerson | August 20, 2008 11:26 AM
You guys really DO love polls! Thanks, swamp!
Posted by: Jeff | August 20, 2008 11:33 AM
McCain's winning over the indies because he answers questions with straight talk and never evades by saying "that's above my paygrade."
Posted by: Jeff | August 20, 2008 11:35 AM
I want the Maverick to tell people why he takes money from Karl Rove?
The same Karl Rove who McCain believes smeared him and his family. Why would an allegedly honorable man take money from someone like Karl Rove? There's a word for it. I'll bet Carol McCain knows what it is.
No shame McCain. He wants it too bad.
Posted by: Doug Zook | August 20, 2008 11:45 AM
Don Fitz, it sounds like youa re getting nervous. I would be too if I were you. Teh more people see from Obama the less they like him.
Posted by: Vinny | August 20, 2008 11:53 AM
I think it's still too early to say that McCain is winning over the independents. The debates and the conventions are going to have a big impact.
http://www.politicswithagrin.blogspot.com/
Posted by: Kristen | August 20, 2008 12:06 PM
Regarding the laughing oil companies: turn off your lights air conditioning, TV and computer, and stop driving your car. Then you can rant all you want about how much oil companies make without sounding like a hyprocrite.
Posted by: mediahack | August 20, 2008 12:08 PM
I hope the McCain, Straight Hawk Express, keeps that wonderful photo of himself and Senator Lieberman, it take them to places man has never been to, before !! I think between the two of them, there may be a deck of cards. That's just a guess on my part, though, I could be wrong. They both are champions of an immoral war and the Occupation of another nation's Oil Fields. Can we get any more democratic than that ? Maybe we can, with our force-feeding of democracy down the Iraqi's throats. Presidents Washington, Jefferson, Eisenhower would be so proud of this present Republican administration, the Bush-Cheney administration !!
SUPPORT OUR TROOPS, BRING THEM HOME, ALIVE AND WHOLE. NOW.
Posted by: Don Fitzgerald, Chicago | August 20, 2008 12:14 PM
Hillary Clinton may just be proven correct: Barack Obama is not electable. The more people see of him, the more doubt it generates.
Posted by: Fred C Dobbs | August 20, 2008 12:18 PM
mediahack | August 20, 2008 12:08 PM
Media/hack...well you're half right.
Posted by: bill r. | August 20, 2008 12:21 PM
Don't worry Doug, Don, Exxon... Obama leads among German Rock Concert Audience Independents.
Posted by: MJ | August 20, 2008 12:41 PM
I think Don Fitzgerald comments are an intentional parady of the 'typical liberal'. At least I'd hope so, no one can be that shrill!
As I said in July, Obama isn't going to win. It has nothing to do with McCain- it's just Obama isn't an electable choice for the President at this time.
Better luck in 2012.
Posted by: Michael Bingamon | August 20, 2008 12:45 PM
Although I do not support force-feeding democracy to other countries, I do believe the franchise of the individual is a cherished right in this country. I hope this issue receives greater attention:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121918996082755013.html?mod=opinion_main_commentaries
Posted by: Emerson | August 20, 2008 12:47 PM
It helps that the media doesn't ask McCain any hard questions, doesn't it?
As the spinmeisters say, the race is not over.
But it sure would be nice to see some actual REPORTING!
Posted by: athena | August 20, 2008 12:49 PM
Fair Don, not fare. The shine is off Obama's rose. When someone finally asked him tough questions he waffled, wavered and recited DNC talking points. Independent voters realize he's nowhere near ready to be president.
Posted by: Jeff | August 20, 2008 12:52 PM
I think Don Fitzgerald comments are an intentional parady of the 'typical liberal'.
Posted by: Michael Bingamon | August 20, 2008 12:45 PM
So it would seem to the casual observer. Alas, it's wholly unintentional. (!!!)
Posted by: MJ | August 20, 2008 12:56 PM
What tough questions are you referring to? Waffled? When? This is such BS.
Do you mean the churchfest? The one where McCain cheated? The one where McCain gave boilerplate answers to prepared questions?
God forbid we should have a president who thinks instead of blathers.
Posted by: athena | August 20, 2008 1:01 PM
300 million people and these two yahoos are the best we can do:?
God bless America.
Posted by: Jimmy | August 20, 2008 1:13 PM
Ha Ha. Hillary supporters were muzzled, shouted down, called racists when we said Obama is unelectable this past Spring. Obama supporters' vitriol, cheating, disenfranchising ways during the primaries sure didn't help out like they thought, did it? Better luck next time? Not on your life. Superdelegates had better do the right thing in Denver and dump deadweight Obama. Otherwise, Hillary in 2012 - if the Dems are serious about regaining the White House, that is.
Posted by: Bemused | August 20, 2008 1:18 PM
Oh geez, what can he ditch now.....lets see, I can always dump that no drill idea, and HEY, who needs wealth redistribution...that might have effected me to much$. I could ditch that idea of doubling capital gains tax he he that might effect me too, and what about my idea to tax oil companies enough so that I can buy everyone a new electric car......hmmmm what else ......
Posted by: FAN TASTIC | August 20, 2008 2:09 PM
Posted by: athena 1:01 PM >My gosh, I recall you telling of Obama's masterfull answers to all those religious questions ha ha ha. Guess, his pay grade just wasn't high enough to pass such a complicated test.
PRAY DEAR, it's all you've got!
Posted by: Look whose talking about GOD now | August 20, 2008 2:59 PM
This is what I think has happened, since the Olympics have been hogging all the coverage on NBC and MSNBC, the cheerleaders have not been available to sing Obama's praises. As far as CNN, no one watches that pathetic station anyway, so - gasp - just maybe some viewers have turned on FOX! Well, kool-aid drinkers the cheerleaders will be back this weekend at the conventioin slobbering all over their idol so he may get a bump.
Posted by: vla | August 20, 2008 2:59 PM
It is music to my ears, the Republican Whine. This will be the best year ever. There will be more whining by the Republicans, they'll have to move to the cellar, the whine cellar. Keep on, keeping on, Senator Obama, all the Republicans can offer is fear and smear and America is very tired of those tactics, after we have had to suffer the incompetents of the Bush-Cheney tag team !!! Say no, America, to the Bush-McCain Republicans !!
SUPPORT OUR TROOPS, BRING THEM HOME, ALIVE AND WHOLE. NOW.
Posted by: Don Fitzgerald, Chicago | August 20, 2008 4:20 PM
Barack had to appeal to the hard left to win the nomination then pull a hard right for the general. Every time he clarifies a position he looses votes. Labor unions support drilling while the anti-growth crowd hate it.
Tax policies, gun rights, death penalty, illegal immigration, affirmative action, and other issues also split the party to his detriment.
Posted by: whatnow | August 20, 2008 4:41 PM
Alt Cap;
'God, the screw job we have planned for you little people. Ha ha ha ha ha!!!'
Posted by: C.Morris | August 20, 2008 7:34 PM
whatnow,
You are basically correct here.
The problem with Democrats; They fear 'the base'.
No, not THEIR base, but rather the Republican base.
Posted by: C.Morris | August 20, 2008 7:36 PM
There's a lot of big talk of retaliation thru out all these poll sites today, but there's one big problem with it....there's only so much Obama can really do.
Supporters think if he doesn't fight nasty he probably won't regain, but when you take a look at McCain's ads, they aren't really nasty, they're FUNNY. He also scoffs at Obama's plans and ideas etc....but not ATTACKISH as much as comparisons to his.
So, if Obama did go nasty, he's going to stand out and it can backfire pretty good. McCain is pretty well liked and respected.
Have your fun on these sites, because I have a feeling it's all the satisfaction you're gonna get.
Posted by: I'm so sorry, Uncle Albert | August 20, 2008 9:10 PM