by Amanda Erickson
Likely Presidential nominees Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) and Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) have one thing in common - the percent of likely voters who say they will support them this November.
The two candidates are in a statistical tie, the latest Gallup Poll Daily shows, with Obama at 45 percent and McCain at 44. Gallup pollster Frank Newport writes that the poll shows "Obama was unable to solidify the significant lead he briefly enjoyed ... at the height of publicity surrounding his weeklong visit to Afghanistan, Iraq, the Middle East, and Europe."
It isn't the first time this has happened. Obama held a 1-point lead between July 15 - 17, and for several days in late June. But it has experts asking: why isn't Obama doing better? This has been of incredible interest to those political observers who are tracking the election by the second. After all, President Bush's approval ratings keep breaking records because they're so low. The country is fed up with Republican policies on the economy and war. People want change.
But do they want change they can believe in? And is the lack of bounce a sign Obama is doing something wrong?
Adam Nagourney of the New York Times doesn't think so. He wrote a thoughtful piece Monday exploring some of the reasons Obama's numbers have stayed where they are. The American Thinker and the LA Times' Top of the Ticket, are more skeptical, pointing out that Obama still has to convince many Americans that he is ready to lead on Day One.







Comments
People don't trust him!
Posted by: RFB-IL | August 1, 2008 11:09 AM
Evidence everyone is on vacation.
Hmmm. Let's see where the Bush economy is in about 6 weeks......
Posted by: ornery | August 1, 2008 11:15 AM
These polls are moving so much because people are constantly trying to figure out which of these two guys is the lesser of two evils. NOt everyone of course but there is quite a few voters that just cant make up their mind, not because these candidates are so great, but because there soo horrible. So
I am torn, do I vote for Obama, who I dont think is really the change that he claims, and the
change he is going to bring might be for the worse. He is sooo arrogent too. Bush was very arrogent. I think weve learned our lesson for voting for someone who wont admit when they are
wrong. Stay the course is a scary Motto. I dont want that any
more. Obama is a bit scary. OH, did you see the video of Obama losing his temper., I had never saw that before. They have that video of http://www.TheObamaPlan.com and McCain isnt the same candidate as he was in 2000 I think everyone thought they were getting 2000 McCain,
Instead we got a much more confused and cranky McCain. Did you seem him knock the stuff off the shelf in the grocery store., Or him blowing up on the reporter. His Campaign has
become a punch line. You can see both mentioned train wrecks at http://www.mccanes.com
Posted by: Paul | August 1, 2008 11:17 AM
Left-wing media types like Adam Nagourney, who spend all day surrounded by their ideological soulmates, can't figure out why ordinary people don't all vote the way they do.
Their cluelessness is too funny, really.
Posted by: Bruce | August 1, 2008 11:46 AM
Polls! Polls! Polls! I'm so sick of polls. When the polls show him up, one candidate says "it shows the people are hearing my message." When the polls show him down the candidate says "I really don't believe in polls." The only poll that matters is the one that is taken on election day.
Besides, this year the poll takers have been so far off the mark they need to either quit or stop taking them.
Posted by: GEEP | August 1, 2008 12:05 PM
of course this does not include the German vote...
Posted by: heartburn | August 1, 2008 12:34 PM
"FEDERAL ELECTIONS COMMISSIONER SPEAKS"
ALL AMERICANS POLLED AND IT'S A TOSS UP! SURE THE ELECTION IS IN NOVEMBER, BUT WE ALREADY COUNTED THE VOTES!
WE ALREADY DISCOUNTED THE "CAGED VOTES"
WE ALREADY DISCOUNTED THE "MILITARY VOTE"
HISPANIC VOTES ALL CAGED AND OR PROVISIONALIZED!
WE ALREADY "PURGED" THE BLACK VOTE!
YOU VOTE, WE VOTE AND IT'S A TIE!
MCCAIN WINS! BUSH WINS!
EXXON WINS! "HUNT OIL WINS" PHIL GRAMM WINS!
RICK RENZI RE NZI RE NZI AND THE CHOCTOW INDIANS WIN! WIN WIN WIN WIN WIN!
ALL THE VOTES HAVE BEEN COUNTED! ALL THE VOTES HAVE BEEN PURGED, CAGED, PROVISIONALIZED. "ASSIMILATION IS FUTILE"
Posted by: Roger Morris | August 1, 2008 12:39 PM
After all the attention he's gotten from the media, the lukewarm numbers for Obama have to be based on something other than lack of knowledge. Perhaps bitter voters in small (and big) towns fear Obama 'cause he's just too good. And perversely prefer McCain as he morphs into a negative campaigner. You know what they say about Bad Boys...
Posted by: Carola Von Hoffmannstahl-Solomonoff | August 1, 2008 12:49 PM
Amanda Erickson and other media types can't figure out why people don't worship St. Barack like they do.
Might I suggest that the media types try talking to the non-worshippers?
Give it a try, Amanda. If you ever do, you might alter some of your pre-conceived prejudices.
For example, there's a lot of people out there:
1) Fed up with DEMOCRAT "policies on the economy and the war".
2) Appalled that the Democrats would nominate the senator rated "most left-wing" by National Journal. Put another way, Obama is the Dem's equivalent of Jesse Helms.
3) Fed up with the Democrat-run Congress that Obama is a key member of.
4) Fed up with the media jamming their favorite candidate down our throats.
5) Appalled at a candidate with such a thin resume.
6) Appalled by a candidate who surrounds himself with open racists such as Pfleger, Ludacris and Rev. Wright.
7) Appalled by a candidate so closely connected with Tony Rezko and other Cook County fixers.
8) Appalled by a candidate who plays the race card so often.
9) Laughing at Obama's many gaffes and his obvious filp-flops.
Posted by: Bruce | August 1, 2008 12:52 PM
Posted by: Bruce | August 1, 2008 12:52 PM
Yeah, but the French love him.
Posted by: MJ | August 1, 2008 1:01 PM
This is hilarious! The bounce (which was so tiny you could hardly call it a bounce) from Barack's Excellent Foreign Adventure is gone. But it's not just gone, it has become a negative quantity -- he's in worse shape now than he was before he left!
Maybe the electorate are PO'd at having to foot the bill for his campaign tour.
Posted by: MJ | August 1, 2008 1:07 PM
Statistical Tie?
Baloney.
Obama is ahead and he's ahead by a lot. That's why McCain's campaign has gone so negative so fast. They are desperate to turn things around. Go to the url below and see for yourself.
Posted by: Quippy | August 1, 2008 1:20 PM
Obama snubbed our soldiers in Germany.
He decided to play basketball instead...
Paulo
Posted by: Paulo | August 1, 2008 1:28 PM
We all know all the many reasons why we would not vote for Obama, but political pundits out there keep wondering what he needs to do to convince those of us who have yet to be convinced to want to go over to the Obama side.
That is so annoying to us. They miss the point entirely, it's not about a matter of time, or the right way to sell him to us, there is no such thing as JUST THE RIGHT AMOUNT (remember the nicotine commercial ha ha). People have ALREADY found out enough info (thanks to several sources, internet included) to completely turn off from Obama all together. His political views and plans for us, are not what AMERICANS want (those who are informed of what's coming that is). There is no amount of convincing that will change that. I would love for one of these pundits to see the truth.... people aren't interested in having his non-traditional Socialist/Marxist leanings to effect our lives in the negative way in which it would. It's not something fixable, it's his total being, it is who he is and what he stands for, it's in his blood.
Here's an easier way to see this the way we do>What is it going to take for political pundits to understand OUR way of thinking, to be sold on our view of Obama not being acceptable for us. I think with enough prodding or selling we will eventually convince them of the error of their ways ha.
Posted by: Ha! | August 1, 2008 1:46 PM
An update: today Gallup is reporting that Obama has lost another point. Tied at 44%. And that's of registered, not likely, voters.
"According to Gallup Poll Daily tracking from July 29-31, John McCain and Barack Obama are now tied at 44% in the preferences of national registered voters." (www.gallup.com)
But the media and the French still love him!
Posted by: Bruce | August 1, 2008 1:49 PM
Considering that McCain is running a lackluster campaign and that Obama just completed his "I am the world" tour, McCain should be seeing Obama's taillights disappear over the horizon. Yet, Obama can't seem to shake McCain.
The American people, or at least a very large population of people, are continuing to not finding substance in Obama as the proverbial onion continues to be peeled. Remember, early on in a campaign the political types of both parties are paying attention, but as the campaign continues on, those non-political undecided voters begin to pay attention. These are the folks who Obama is not winning over, and McCain is becoming the default go to guy.
So far, we have observed that Obama makes poor judgments in the choice of acquaintances, he can turn on an issue rapidly if he believes it is in his best political interest. He is an income redistributionist, and anti small business candidate, who prefers higher gas prices to force those "bitter" people to dump their trucks and SUV's in favor of inefficient corn ethanol powered vehicles. He is against drilling as a means to achieve his vision of a fossil fuel free world, no matter how many people get hurt by this sudden lurch away from traditional fuel toward fuel that is not ready to fully drive this nation.
His trip to Europe demonstrated who the French and the Germans like, but it is not a referendum for this country's Presidency - our society is dramatically different than Europe.
http://brokengovernment.wordpress.com
Posted by: Ken Moyes | August 1, 2008 2:05 PM
You've GOT to see the newest McCain commercial, using Obama's own words likening himself to a supreme being including a "light coming from somewhere above saying vote for Barack." It's like the Britney-Paris commercial, humorous yet right on and focusing on a candidate who obviously thinks he's able to part the oceans, but has absolutely NO sense of humor.
The end of the commercial is priceless. You can access it on the Drudge Report.
Posted by: Natalie | August 1, 2008 2:54 PM
nice to see people coming to their senses. Who wants peace, prosperity, health-care, progress, when we can have debt, poverty, war and reality T.V.?
Posted by: alex | August 1, 2008 7:05 PM
Polls...schmolls. The only poll I follow is the one from Las Vegas. The odds of Obama winning are 65%. They put their money where their mouth is. Pollsters don't.
Posted by: Bobert | August 2, 2008 12:00 AM
Quippy, where did you do your poll, who did you poll, come on give us the juice. Maybe you should show the pollsters how to do their polling so that come closer to your "numbers."
Posted by: RFB-IL | August 5, 2008 11:15 AM
Bobert, I wouldn't put any money on that if I were you. Las Vages is not a non-profit organization.
Posted by: RFB-IL | August 5, 2008 11:22 AM