by Mark Silva
DENVER - Barack Obama and John McCain are in a dead-heat in national polls.
Obama's campaign manager couldn't care less.
David Plouffe, one of the architects of Obama's surprise rise to the top of his party, suggests that he all but ignores the national polls. As Don Frederick, our colleague at Top of the Ticket relays the press briefing that Plouffe held, Obama's manager said:
"We don't pay attention to national polls.''
What they do pay attention to: The 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House, a calculation that focuses instead on the 50-state contest., and, in the places where Obama shows the most potential for winning, the work of the campaign to spur a strong turnout of Obama voters. (The electoral map favors Obama at this stage.)
"We stay laser-focused on these two factors each and every day," Plouffe said.
This helps explain why Plouffe remains "pretty positive'' in his assessment of the race, Frederick notes -- "hand-wringing among some Democrats notwithstanding. ''
Pollsters generally base their sampling group on past voting patterns, Plouffe notes, but the electorate in 2008 "is going to be changed in some fundamental ways from 2004."
Plouffe also offers this concession about their Republican rival, Sen. John McCain of Arizona: "McCain has more strength with independent voters than most Republicans. We as a party can be bunned out about that, but we've got to deal with it."







Comments
He is right. Nobody knows what is going to happen come election day. Polls change from day to day. however, it will be inteesting to see if the conventions create any bounce at all. The Daily Gallup will be interesting today. Will Michelle's speech help? But here is another poll that may show how severe the split is in the democratic party. http://www.bop-o-rama.com
Posted by: acarponzo | August 26, 2008 7:53 AM
Plouffe & Co. are sharp people. Until we dump the antiquated Electoral College (which is never going to happen) in favor of a national election, 270 is the only number that really counts.
!OBAMA/BIDEN '08!
Posted by: Doug Zook | August 26, 2008 8:19 AM
If people had paid attention to Plouffe over the last year they would not be surprised at Obama' victory.
The details are the key for Obama's team, just like the caucuses were and that is why Obama will win.
Plan, Organization, Ground Game, Execution....
Posted by: John Nail | August 26, 2008 8:46 AM
Plouffe is right, no matter what Brucie and the rest say, Just try the build you own electoral map. Add the states that Obama is ahead in, plus Virginia, NM and Colorado and Barack does not need Ohio OR Florida.
Now add in Romney, the $200 million dollar man. How can they GOP even try and associate with blue collar voters when their two candidates are worth more than $300 million, own at least 10 homes and wear $500 shoes??
Then let's compare Joe Biden and Mitt Romney's sons - Joe's will be in Iraq in the fall, while Romney's idea of national service for his sons is having them drive all over the country campaigning for their father!!!
Posted by: Bob "Hussein" inAtlanta | August 26, 2008 8:54 AM
You should be concerned: McCain is coming!
Posted by: Elizabeth Fonseca | August 26, 2008 8:58 AM
National polls have the race tied, so it probably is best to ignore those and focus on battleground states. Unfortunately for Obama, he's lagging behind there, too. They need a big bounce coming up.
http://www.political-buzz.com/
Posted by: matt | August 26, 2008 9:14 AM
All the maps I've looked up show McCain up 274 vs Obama's 264 for electoral college. Gallop as of yesterday has them tied at 45.
It's doubtful that Michelles manipulative emotional speech is going to bump that up, but we shall see. She did work it pretty good ha.
Posted by: What polls are they looking at ha | August 26, 2008 9:25 AM
This article is in sharp contrast to a lengthy analysis in today's Washington Post that says delegates from swing states are deeply concerned about Obama's losing ground to McCain in the polls. Their concern goes to the deleterious effect Obama can have on local races if he loses badly. Further, it says the polling could even be much worse for Obama than indicated because of the "Bradley" effect, the tendency of some white voters to say they'll vote for a black candidate when they really will not. The Post story is worth reading and offers insights into the extensive unease at the convention among Democrats.
Posted by: Darnell | August 26, 2008 9:52 AM
Does anyone believe for one minute that Plouffe doesn't "pay attention to national polls?"
The lie is obvious. Any campaign manager who doesn't pay attention to the polls should be fired for incompetence.
Yet Democrats inside and outside the media don't call Plouffe out on the lie. They instead embrace the lie. Which says volumes about Democrats.
Posted by: Once a Democrat | August 26, 2008 10:02 AM
They are snart-
Obanma is a lemon-
He changes more than his "CHANGE"
Posted by: George | August 26, 2008 10:23 AM
The majority want a Dem in the white house but Mr Obama seems unable to close the deal.
Posted by: brigitte | August 26, 2008 10:28 AM
Of course he watches the polls. He is trying to push his defective product onto a gullible market. Oh, did I mention his *product* is marxist socialism - that thing that is broken right out of the box.
Posted by: Norman | August 26, 2008 10:33 AM
Yeah these polls mean so much, considering no one with a cell phone is included. Who uses a cell phone these days anyway?
Posted by: Paul | August 26, 2008 10:37 AM
I woudl try and ignore them too if my candidate had fallen so much in the last month or so.
Posted by: Vinny | August 26, 2008 10:51 AM
Maybe Plouffe will try to ignore them on November 4th, too. Then four years later the dems will run another elitist, far-left candidate. Just like they did with him and Kerry.
This guy Paul is seriously misinformed. Polling outfits have used numbers other than land lines since 2000.
Posted by: Jeff | August 26, 2008 11:29 AM
What doesn't change from day to day, is the awful shape the Bush-McCain Republicans have left America. From the administrative disaster in New Orleans to the Banking Mortgage Scandal, the Bush-Republican administration has tried to rip this country apart. Like everything else it has tried, it has failed, that, too, though it has made many people's lives miserable. Polls don't show the deep resentment many, many Americans have towards this administration and Republicans, in general. In my humble opinion, the " L " word is not out of the question, with the disappointment and disillusionment, that is stalking this great land. For all of those that don't know the " L " word, allow me to introduce it to you !! That is, if you can stop the sliming, the distorting and slandering, for one moment!! Allow me to introduce you to the word, landslide. That's LANDSLIDE !! The only ones to blame for this possibility, are the Republicans, themselves. They have sabotaged the health and well-being of this entire nation for their own agenda, an agenda that is backward-looking and self-serving. Nowhere in their vision, can we see an, honest-to-goodness, constitutional America, with liberty and justice, for all !! So, pack your bags, Senator McConnell and Representative Boehner, your 15 minutes are up !!
SUPPORT OUR TROOPS, BRING THEM HOME, ALIVE AND WHOLE. NOW.
Posted by: Don Fitzgerald, Chicago | August 26, 2008 11:44 AM
Jeff,
McCain doesn't even know how many houses he has, but you still call Obama an elitist. Can I ask why?
Posted by: Mr Face | August 26, 2008 11:44 AM
Of course Obamas campaign read and watch the polls daily. They just don't like what they
see.
Obama started out as a community agitator picking target after target grabbing some money or power and moving on.
Even his mentor Emil Jones said this week he was overly aggressive when I met him in Chicago.
Obama has lost the messianic image. The truth of his smarmy associates is out in the open and since he picked Joe Biden the pro-abortion candidate he will have more trouble with practicing Catholics since Biden has been criticized for promoting abortion and going to Communion anyway.
John McCain 08! Jerry White, Springfield,IL
Posted by: Jerry White | August 26, 2008 12:00 PM
Very simple, Mr. Alias, because John McCain spent 5 years as a POW for his country, lived in sub-poverty conditions and still refused early release. He's earned the right to live however he wants.
Barack Obama, meanwhile, still uses class warfare politics to divide our country while pretending he didn't grow up in the lap of luxury. He did. The man has, quite plainly, never worked a hard day in his life. Yet he feels it's his job to tell working people what THEY believe.
Posted by: Jeff | August 26, 2008 12:22 PM
Being a conservative in a year where Bushs' approval ratings are so low, it's comforting to know the dumbocrats don't know how to put a winner into the race.
Posted by: RCK | August 26, 2008 12:27 PM
Wow. Obama grew up in the lap of luxury?? Quite a surprise to me and I even read his autobiography. What's your source, Jeffy?? The liar Jerome Corsi?? Before his POW days, McCain did grow up in relative luxury... those Admirals are pretty well pampered. I think both men earned their way of living, not just one.
Posted by: Flo | August 26, 2008 12:44 PM
"a calculation that focuses instead on the 50-state contest"
Didn't Obama tell Plouffe that there are 57 states. Maybe that's their problem, they are ignoring 7 states.
I love the way the Dems touted the national polls for the last several months, but now that Obama is tanking, and behind, the polls don't matter.
Plouffe may have been a good strategy guy when there was no competition and they could rig the causus states. But, Mr. Plouffe, you are in the big leagues now. You are up against Steven Schmidt, "The Bullet"!
Posted by: Martha Iverson | August 26, 2008 1:38 PM
The man has, quite plainly, never worked a hard day in his life. Yet he feels it's his job to tell working people what THEY believe.
Posted by: Jeff | August 26, 2008 12:22 PM
;
Wow! Ok this Jeff character is just a strawman right? Some creation from the DNC to portray McCain backers as foolish and absurd, right? The best part is that this strawman Jeff posts 24/7 on the Swamp. Doesn't look like he's working very hard if he is an actual person.
Posted by: jethro | August 26, 2008 1:44 PM
RCK, what is the rating today on the Democratic congress. I do believe that it was less than half that of Bush's rating. And your trying to tell me that the right decision for our next president is a democrat? Funny Man!
Posted by: RFB-IL | August 26, 2008 5:52 PM