Denver-based artist Malcolm Farley paints a portrait of Obama on Saturday, Aug. 23, 2008, at Elitch Gardens in Denver during a welcome party put on by the Democratic National Convention host committee. (AP Photo/Ted S. Warren)
by Mike Dorning
Think of the Democratic National Convention as a scripted TV miniseries that builds in nightly episodes to a crescendo-- Barack Obama addressing a roaring crowd that fills a football stadium.
Each installment has its purpose, but success will depend on the power and believability of the story line as well as the performances of Obama and an extensive supporting cast led by his wife, Michelle, and even Hillary Clinton. Obama's campaign needs to accomplish five tasks:
1. Connect with America
The goal: Connect the candidate with America and American values.
Present a portrait of Obama in touch with ordinary Americans and sharing their values.
The challenge: Despite the celebrity media coverage he has received and the long primary campaign, Obama remains to many voters "famous but not well-known," as one Democratic strategist puts it. That is particularly true among swing voters who tune in late in an election.
Michelle Obama may play the key role here in a speech Monday night. She can offer a highly personal portrait of the candidate as well as calm doubts about her patriotism raised by conservatives early this year after she commented that her husband's campaign made her "proud" of the country for the first time in her adult life.
Coupled with Obama's international heritage and his early hesitancy to wear a flag lapel pin, it has been easy for critics to stir doubts about him on this front. More than eight out of 10 voters said Republican John McCain's patriotism is strong versus only 55 percent for Obama in a Bloomberg poll last week.
The campaign plans to build on the 2004 speech that introduced Obama to the nation, presenting him as a unifying figure. He will also be shown as the embodiment of the American Dream, rising from modest means through hard work.
For more coverage of Obama at the Democratic National Convention, visit ChicagoTribune.com.
2. Win over Clinton supporters
The goal: Gain their support.
The challenge: Obama still has not consolidated support among backers of his chief opponent in the primaries, particularly women deeply disappointed by her defeat.
An NBC/Wall Street Journal poll released on the eve of the convention highlights the problem. Only 52 percent of Clinton supporters said they would vote for the presumptive Democratic nominee, while 27 percent said they were undecided.
Clinton's performance in a speech Tuesday will be crucial. But so will signals she and her husband, the former president, send the rest of the week. Bill Clinton makes his own speech to the convention Wednesday night. Watch also how Obama and his allies show respect for a defeated opponent whose followers can make or break Obama's candidacy in a tight election.
"That is soft Democratic support, voters who are sitting there waiting to go to Obama," said Tad Devine, a senior Democratic strategist. "If she comes out there and says, 'You need this guy, and let me tell you why,' that will help a lot."
3. Demonstrate fitness to command
The goal: Establish public confidence in Obama's ability to lead in a crisis.
The challenge: Because he is a new face on the national stage with little foreign policy experience, his readiness to take on the job of commander in chief has been an issue since the primaries when Clinton ran a commercial depicting a hypothetical 3 a.m. phone call about an international crisis.
Now Obama faces a Republican opponent who is a third-generation naval officer, who withstood torture as a Vietnam War POW and who for years has been a prominent participant in public debate over national security.
The convention devotes Wednesday to national security, including testimonials to Obama's fitness to lead from Bill Clinton and 2004 Democratic nominee John Kerry. Obama campaign advisers suggest they will continue to stress his judgment in opposing the war in Iraq. At a time of war and international terrorism, this is a threshold test Obama must pass.
4. Provide a vision that resonates
The goal: Provide a vision that resonates with voters.
The challenge: Obama speaks often of change, but polls show a majority of Americans do not yet have a clear idea of where he wants to take the country. Voters must understand a candidate's priorities. Obama's Thursday acceptance speech will be his best opportunity to present that vision. Themes he has struck in recent weeks suggest he will focus on economic issues.
5. Create a contrast with McCain
The goal: Convince voters that John McCain would take the country down a path it does not want to follow.
The challenge: The McCain campaign has erased an early Obama lead in the polls by raising doubts about the Democrat, portraying him as an elitist and unready to be commander in chief.
Obama, the relative newcomer to the national scene, needs to move the debate away from being a referendum on him and focus attention, favorably, on how he contrasts with McCain. That's how Ronald Reagan overcame doubts and beat Jimmy Carter in 1980.
Obama's campaign already is moving on this front, as evidenced by its swift attack to tag McCain as out of touch with working Americans when the Republican told an interviewer he did not know how many houses he owned.
The payoff
Campaigns traditionally hope for a post-convention bounce in the polls, but it could be short-lived if Republicans have their way. McCain's campaign hopes to grab the spotlight by announcing his choice of a vice presidential nominee the day after Obama's acceptance speech. And the GOP nominating convention in Minneapolis follows next week.
Obama's best chance for a post-convention bounce may be if he can rally wavering Clinton supporters.
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Comments
Too much. Too late. Perceptions are already in place...Should have nominated HRC as VP..Same with Michelle Obama. Negative perceptions...I hear it all the time..Too bad. He nearly had it made...Hello MCain!!!!!
Posted by: kool aid anyone | August 24, 2008 1:11 PM
What's missing in Denver is a huge marquee at the entrance of Pepsi Center that says "Welcome to the Karl Rove Democratic National Convention". The “Architect”, as convervatives call him, has been planning for this nomination of the "biggest loser" ever since he and Donna Brazile started trading phone calls back in 2002. And now we have Biden, who clamored for the war in Iraq and left those three sexual harassment victims of Clarence Thomas stewing in a hotel room, waiting to testify (never to testify) while he presided over the confirmation hearing. The Dem. Party is definitely the place to go if you're a woman who wants to be thrown under the bus. Here's an analysis of the presidential campaign that provides a useful chronology and connects the dots.
http://www.thecityedition.com/Pages/Archive/Winter08/2008Election.html
Posted by: factcheck2 | August 24, 2008 1:16 PM
Don't worry, Barack!!!
You can count on your friends at the Tribune to announce, post convention, that you accomplished these five goals. You could recite the Chicago phone book in your acceptance speech, and your media flacks would give the speech 4 stars.
And the media will hide any inconvenient truths that might hinder your deification. Such as the fact that Joe Biden, your own running mate, was among the first to raise doubts about your basic "fitness to command."
Posted by: Bruce | August 24, 2008 1:24 PM
A lot of partisan bloggers couldn't get to the convention, so they've adapted. Jeff, you've been unmasked:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/24/fashion/24blog.html?hp
Posted by: dt | August 24, 2008 1:29 PM
What Obama doesn't need is a hostile press. For bruce and others who would have us believe that Obama benefits from more coverage than McCain:
What Obama also should have learned by now is that the press is not his friend. Of course, he gets more ink and airtime than McCain; he’s sexier news. But as George Mason University’s Center for Media and Public Affairs documented in its study of six weeks of TV news reports this summer, Obama’s coverage was 28 percent positive, 72 percent negative. (For McCain, the split was 43/57.) Even McCain’s most blatant confusions, memory lapses and outright lies still barely cause a ripple, whether he’s railing against a piece of pork he in fact voted for, as he did at the Saddleback Church pseudodebate last weekend, or falsifying crucial details of his marital history in his memoirs, as The Los Angeles Times uncovered in court records last month.
Frank Rich--NYT
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/24/opinion/24rich.html?hp
Posted by: dt | August 24, 2008 1:36 PM
What Obama does need is to do what he is doing today in Wisconsin! A little joke, a few jabs.... This is only going to help Team Obama/Biden. I think the bop-o-meter is already spinning on this one. http://www.bop-o-rama.com.
Posted by: acarponzo | August 24, 2008 2:16 PM
Bill Clinton and John Kerry are speaking on National Security? Bill Clinton, the first US President to link Al Qaeda to Iraq? Bill Clinton who who destroyed the intelligence services of the US? John Kerry who met with the enemy during the Viet Nam war? The man who won three purple hearts without ever going to a hospital? The man who has his picture his picture in the Viet Nam war museum as a contributer to their victory? Sad if that is the best they have to offer.
Posted by: VivianC | August 24, 2008 2:29 PM
dt,
You are joking when you state "What Obama doesn't need is a hostile press". Where is he going to find that?
What the American people need is an honest press.
Posted by: Terry | August 24, 2008 2:30 PM
Watching re-runs of the olympics will be more exciting then the democratic convention since it is scripted all the way including the "corrination."
Posted by: Me to | August 24, 2008 2:55 PM
Don't know why the Left is so worried about this Dem Convention.
Few sane people actually watch these conventions. Inevitably, they'll get their impressions of the Dem Convention from the media.
And since the mainstream media is 90% (probably an underestimate) for Obama, people will be given the Dem party line--that Democrats in general, and St. Barack in particular, can Walk on Water.
For example, Obama can commit his daily gaffe (today, he declared the city of Eau Claire, Wisconsin a state) and his media minions will make sure the average person doesn't hear about it.
The video of Obama declaring Eau Claire a state can be seen at
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U7gXEQmE_SI
Posted by: bruce | August 24, 2008 3:55 PM
Let's see what the Repugs do with Obama's famous brag that "I'm a Desi"!
http://www.indiawest.com/view.php?subaction=showfull&id=1219263732&archive=&start_from=&ucat=11
Sorry, I just cannot relate to that...
Posted by: Chuck | August 24, 2008 4:06 PM
Aug. 24, 2008 DENVER -- Democratic delegates from Michigan and Florida were awarded full voting rights at the national convention Sunday, despite holding early primaries against party rules.
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I guess Obama has CHANGED his mind and approved the seating of all the Michigan and Florida delegates at the convention. He must think that will help to unify the party and win over some of the Clinton supporters.
Posted by: Michael | August 24, 2008 4:14 PM
President Obama needs to continue to distract Americans from thinking about the reasoned vote he cast in support of infanticide, when in 2002 he opposed an IL bill identical to the strongly bipartison federal law in effect, the Born Alive Infants Protection Act. See pages 31-34 here for his remarks supporting physicians over the lives of children born alive after late-term abortions.
http://www.ilga.gov/senate/transcripts/strans92/ST040402.pdf
He doesn't need Americans to reflect on his extremist actions in support of abortion. He doesn't need Americans to tie his extreme pro-abortion and pro-infanticide voting record to his vow to halt all federal restrictions on abortion, including the Hyde Amendment, as his first act in office after he is reelected.
Posted by: Malcom | August 24, 2008 4:29 PM
They say he needs to tell his story and introduce himself. I feel like this guy came for a weekend visit nearly 18 months ago and he has yet to leave. We've had him crammed down our throats in a 50 state primary by the mainstream media. We know he worksout a lot, he's a cool dude and he's all about change and he wants to spend a lot of money that's not his. I've had enough of this guy and we're facing another full week at Obamaland in Denver. Did they ever hook up those big screen TVs so the homeless could watch?
Posted by: vla | August 24, 2008 7:50 PM
6. Demonstrate that he knows the difference between the American workforce and private enterprises like AFL-CIO and Change to Win that represent the special interests of their industry - adversarial relations with employers - at the expense of the workplace voting rights of their prospective "clients." In other words, repudiate the undemocratic Employee-Free Choice Act as recommended by Senator George McGovern. Neither Liberals nor Conservatives should support snuffing the voice of workers in secret-ballot elections. This right was protected by the original sponsor - Senator Robert Wagner - and was again protected and supported in the 1947 amendments by leaders including Senator Wayne Morse of Oregon. The secret-ballot right to vote for or against exclusive representation at work deserves continued protection in the 21st century.
Posted by: Liberal Democrat | August 24, 2008 8:40 PM
Terry--72% negative sounds hostile to me. Did you even read the whole post?
Posted by: dt | August 25, 2008 12:58 AM
dt,
Go ask Governor Rendell about the media and impartiality.
http://blogsforjohnmccain.com/ed-rendell-blasts-msnbc-official-network-obama-campaign
Posted by: Terry | August 25, 2008 10:13 AM