by Mark Silva
We've been saying for some time that all of the national polls in the presidential contest may be one thing, but the real battle for the White House will play out in several "battleground'' states where Barack Obama and John McCain each hope to build their victory in the electoral vote-count.
Like Ohio - a place where victory generally has meant election as president for some time now. Twenty electoral votes in play.
And the word today from one of the nation's most respected state polls - the Ohio Poll conducted by the University of Cincinnati - shows a narrow advantage for McCain in a state that both candidates hope to claim: With 48 percent of Ohioans surveyed supporting McCain, 44 Obama.
The poll also shows a lot of people either undecided or possibly wavering - with nearly one quarter of Ohio's likely voters saying they have not made a certain choice yet in a contest escalating in intensity as Nov. 4 nears.
This also is the first Ohio Poll of likely voters in the November contest conducted by the Institute for Policy Research at the university. The survey was conducted from Sept. 5 through Sept. 10, since both the Republican National Convention and Democratic National Convention were staged.
"The race for president has the early makings of a close battle for Ohio's 20 electoral votes,'' the institute reports today.
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"Both campaigns have many hours of work ahead if they want to secure a path to the presidency through Ohio,'' says Eric Rademacher, co-director of the Ohio Poll.
Many voters (23 percent) may still be "up for grabs" - he reports, with 19 percent saying they could change their minds before Election Day and 4 percent simply undecided.
"After a relatively quiet summer, Ohio voters are becoming more engaged with the presidential campaigns,'' Rademacher reports. "The dynamics of this race may change as voters make final decisions based on candidate performances in Ohio and on the national stage."
The poll of 775 likely voters and carries a possible margin of error of 3.5 percent, which makes a 48-44 race something of a real battleground. For more on the McCain-Obama match in Ohio, see the Ohio Poll.
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Comments
As a disinterested observer I suspected Obama had peaked too soon.
Posted by: Ian Thorpe | September 12, 2008 9:54 AM
Ohio-
You are making a wise choice, see you don't want to be know as a FLIP FLOP STATE- As Im afraid Illiios is going to be know, much -
Posted by: LOAM | September 12, 2008 9:55 AM
The nasty campaign by McCAin is designed to keep the people of Ohio from understanding his position on issues . Distract and Attack is the M.O. of Karl Rove politics . ...........
http://thefiresidepost.com/2008/09/12/mccains-health-care-tax/
Posted by: Ohg Rea Tone | September 12, 2008 10:07 AM
It's about time the voters in Ohio got up off of their love affair for the Republicans and conservative philosophy. That state, like the rest of the rust belt, have been ill served by Republicans. Time after time they vote against their real interests and elect people who preach family values, morals, anti-gay, limited government, pro life, and no taxes. The real important issues like economic growth, fair trade, jobs, health care, and infrastructure improvement are ignored. What they get is plant closings, crumbling bridges, loss of jobs, and other factors which contribute to factors that work against families, declining morality, and social depression. It's time for a change.
Posted by: GEEP | September 12, 2008 10:11 AM
I live in a battleground county of the battleground state of Ohio, and I will be glad to do my part to tip the balance for McCain/Palin. It'll be a hoot to help put them over the top.
Posted by: Vast Right Wing Conspirator | September 12, 2008 11:38 AM
The worst, as pointed out in the Times today, is the worry by Democrat leaders that Obama will drag down the Democratic controlled Congress with him, especially the new Democrats in previous Republican districts. The battleground states are also either in trouble for Obama or up for grabs and why? Because the Democrats selected the weakest candidates in their history...and that's saying a lot.
Posted by: Darius | September 12, 2008 11:55 AM
The youth vote is missing.
The pollsters have got to poll the youth vote.
Poll college students.
Posted by: Kelly | September 12, 2008 12:37 PM
Darius:
The poll in front of your eyes alone complete conflicts with your ridiculous assertion that Obama is a weak candidate. He has been consistently ahead of McCain, and guess what, this is bounce time for McCain. Take a pill of reality. You may not like Obama, but that doesn't entitle you to unsubstantiated conjecture.
Posted by: Joe | September 12, 2008 12:57 PM
Correction, Joe. Obama WAS ahead of McCain. That's due in no small measure to Obama's inherent vapidity and lack of any message except radical socialization. Americans are beginning to see through the veneer notwithstanding the frantic efforts of the lib media to prop up this empty suit. The jig's up, big guy. The Messiah has no clothes.
Posted by: Vast Right Wing Conspirator | September 12, 2008 2:46 PM
The real story right now isn't what's going on in Ohio. The real story is out West and down South. Sarah Palin has helped McCain even the numbers in several key states, like New Mexico, Nevada and Virginia. And Palin has helped McCain pull ahead in N. Carolina and Montana, ending Obama's "50-state strategy." By taking the Mountain West effectively out of play, except for Colorado, Palin's presence on the ticket has made the race again about several key states: the usual suspects, Ohio, Colorado and Florida, but remarkably, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Washington. This will allow McCain to take the race to Obama, rather than allowing Obama to shore up his advantages in Mich. and Pa., while McCain fights to shore up his base. That is a HUGE shift. If, on election night, Michigan or Pennsylvania goes to McCain, it will be a long, sad night for Obama. His campaign knows it. And that's why they are terrified and trying to destroy Sarah Palin.
Posted by: JB | September 12, 2008 3:48 PM
How on earth can anyone vote for someone who is one breath away from the most difficult job in the world, but who refuses (or is not allowed) to speak to the media? Have you ever considered that maybe there is a reason for this? Have we all lost our collective mind?
Posted by: Joe Blackbeard | September 12, 2008 6:22 PM
How on earth can anyone vote for someone who is one breath away from the most difficult job in the world, but who refuses (or is not allowed) to speak to the media? Have you ever considered that maybe there is a reason for this? Have we all lost our collective mind?
Posted by: Joe | September 12, 2008 6:22 PM
Obama is the most unqualified candidate in the American history. The media loves him, but he is fadding like his empty words.
Posted by: oshrat | September 13, 2008 12:00 AM
Obama is the most unqualified candidate in the American history. The media loves him, but he is fadding like his empty words.
Posted by: oshrat | September 13, 2008 12:00 AM
Ohio we are pulling for you to stand in there for McCainPalin. Finally a woman who stands for women like so many of us. McCain- Greatest Hero and the best for our country right now. Obama has nothing to give at this time. NO EXPERIENCE. Its McCains time. Thank you for giving us PalinPower!
Posted by: ann | September 13, 2008 10:08 PM