The Gallup Poll's daily track has found John McCain leading Barack Obama in the two full days of surveys taken since the GOP convention, and today's surveys will tell the story of how much 'bounce' McCain has gotten.
by Mark Silva
The post-convention daily track of voter attitudes about Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama finds McCain claiming a marginal, and perhaps statistically insignificant but certainly politically motivating, advantage over Obama: McCain 48 percent, Obama 45 percent.
It could be bigger tomorrow.
The results include two full days of polling after the Republican National Convention, which has provided McCain with a boost rivaling the one that Obama gained with his own convention. In the Sept. 4-6 interviewing of voters, Gallup's Jeff Jones notes, "McCain has outpolled Obama on both Friday and Saturday, and is receiving a convention bounce just as Obama did last week.''
Gallup measures convention bounces by comparing a candidate's support in the last survey taken entirely before a party's convention with the first survey completed entirely afterward - so the results of today's surveys included in a three-day average reported on Tuesday will be telling.
"McCain's 48 percent share of the vote ties for his largest since Gallup tracking began in early March,'' Jones adds. "He registered the same level of support in early May.
"This is also McCain's largest advantage over Obama since early May, when he led by as much as six percentage points,'' Jones notes. " Obama has led McCain for most of the campaign, and for nearly all of the time since clinching the Democratic nomination in early June. ''
The results of the three-day survey carry a possible 2 percentage point margin of error. See more on the McCain-Obama match at Gallup, and see the longer trendline here:
Comments
Only the democrats could blow an election year when everything is in their favor. Obama is taking on water. While I'm not crazy about the Palin pick, she has sparked interest in a lethargic GOP base. Conversely, the Biden pick was like a sedative to democrats.
Posted by: Herbie H. | September 8, 2008 12:01 PM
The Obama ship is beginning to spin out of control. Just in the last week, Obama probably realized that he’s in trouble, attempted several times to reverse the course in order to save his floundering campaign. For example: admitting for the first time that the “surge” strategy in Iraq works, announcing that he would delay rescinding President Bush's tax cuts on wealthy Americans, and said in an interview broadcasted on Sunday that he once considered joining the military himself. With this rate, it probably won’t be long before Obama endorses John McCain for president.
Posted by: Ryan | September 8, 2008 12:04 PM
When a hate campaign goes wrong disaster follows. And everything that could go wrong with the campaign against Palin did.
The Swamp, the NY Times and all the other Obama enablers in the MSM SERIOUSLY underestimated Governor Palin. And all the damage might not be done yet.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/sep/07/uselections2008.republicans2008
Posted by: Jeff | September 8, 2008 12:22 PM
Take a look at Bob Woodward's new book, The War Within, shown on 60 Minutes last night. Gobama! We can not elect another Republican war monger. Even the generals in Iraq did not agree with the surge and W is simply afraid of looking worse than he already does historically, if we don't continue this war and "win" as he sees it.
Posted by: Ginny | September 8, 2008 12:51 PM
As soon as the stardust settles around Palin the public will hopefully open their eyes and realize she is nothing more than a pretty mouthpiece to assist McCain while he tries to delude the American Voters into 4 more years of Buch/Cheney politics. Palin is not qualified to become VP..She and McCain tout "change" ..Yet they want a woman's right to abortion to be stricken from law...We need positive changes for our Country...Not religious, fanatical change of laws that will set our Country back years...She has not as of yet even been vetted..This is indeed a sad state of affairs and makes our Governent look like Circus...
Posted by: kaye c. | September 8, 2008 1:08 PM
It is surprising that there is a jump in polls for McCain. The American people have to have the shortest memory in the world. This is the party who's energy policy is "Drill Baby Drill". What planet are we living on people. Let's keep on this path of destruction because that is where the Republicans will continue to lead us. Even John McCain admitted in his most recent speech, "The Republican Party has lost its way". What we are suppose to give them four more years for them to find themselves. Give me a break!
Posted by: Mike H | September 8, 2008 1:09 PM
The MSM and the democrats have completely miss read where the nation sits in the political spectrum. Turns out a vast chunk of America is really conservative and Sarah Palin has woken that giant up. .
Posted by: Norman | September 8, 2008 1:16 PM
Giuliani the clown, are the republicans and McCain telling young college graduates that there are specific jobs that are acceptable to their party when one graduates, because that fool said that community activist is the first thing wrong on his resume. Is that wrong for everybody? I have a 15 years old daughter, I need to advise her, I don’t want her to have the wrong job on her resume. McBush should be forced to apologize to the young people of this country who are graduating and coming back to serve, He must.
Posted by: Red | September 8, 2008 1:17 PM
The convention bounce is concerning for Team Obama. http://www.boppoll.com.
Even in this real-time poll they cannot seem to get the word out. McCain's number in this poll should be way up from where it is. I do not think the 4 more years message is resonating with Independents. We will see what the other polls show later today.
Posted by: mgultch | September 8, 2008 1:35 PM
And the news gets worse for Obama's Swamp writers and other DNC surrogates--the McCain-Palin Gallup lead is now 6%.
Posted by: Bruce | September 8, 2008 1:46 PM
With all the Fake "liberal media" bias touted by everyone, it is no wonder Mccain is ahead. All of our media is bending over backwards to accommodate the corporate republicans. Media everywhere has been running scared ever since the Rethug convention and their macho talk. The Democratic convention lasted 4 days and stopped at midnight August 28th! The rethud convention started the next morning and continues with coverage of their convention, with footage airing non-stop to this day - 11 days now and running! When does their convention coverage stop? The Republicons have a had very successful propaganda thing going with this fake "liberal media" thing. Go ahead American media - give the presidency to another liar!
Posted by: Sousa the patriot | September 8, 2008 1:57 PM
These numbers are high and that's with the media going after and attacking one candidate. Just as they want to put some strong questions to just ONE CANDIDATE, all with a mission.
They've been getting what they have coming, and it's doubtful to be over any time soon, read on..... I heard some in tv LIB MEDIA saying that people have tried this ' go after the MEDIA' politics before and it never worked.
Well, I must be to young to recall that one, but I can tell them this one> YOU BETTER LOOK OUT, this is a new generation POPS and we aren't done with you yet ! ! !
Posted by: YOU BETTER LOOK OUT POPS ! | September 8, 2008 2:01 PM
Imagine a govenment where the Dem's controlled the White House,Senate & House. A good model to assess is Illinois. The whole country could enjoy the great benefits that abound for Illinois residents. Low taxes and unemployment coupled with plentyful cheap clean energy and a school system that is the envy of the world.
Posted by: Mike C | September 8, 2008 2:07 PM
The more obama flails around, the more his words will become meaningless and the more he will slip in the polls. In his mind, the poor guy already thought he was President, which is why he is becoming desperate, and his positions are changing daily (to what he thinks people want to hear). The media is largely to blame; if they were doing their job early on and treating obama like every other candidate, Hillary would have been the nominee.
Posted by: curtis | September 8, 2008 2:56 PM
Watching the Dem's struggle with how to deal with Palin is absolutely hilarious. When was the last time you saw the presidential candidate of a major party get so flustered by the opposing VP candidate...and a supposed inexperienced one at that? Palin is working out beyond the wildest expectations of the McCain camp, simply by forcing Obama off message during the crucial stretch run to Nov. 4.
Posted by: John | September 8, 2008 2:58 PM
Obama is better as an underdog opponent.
People are simply scared of voting a black democrat, they want to vote democrat but not him.
So do you think you can have another democratic congress and a republican president.
Sounds like 4 more years of hell.
I think he would win, dont underestimate the amount of groundwork he is putting in. i am certain that virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, and Nevada are going blue. all he has to do is to hold the fort in Michigan.
Likely voters are not his thing and never have been just ask Hillary. America underestimates him all he needs is decent debates.
He should definitely own the housing crisis, his position on taxes is good but only after a recession recovery, thats all he needs to point out.
Posted by: Andrew Kenneth | September 8, 2008 4:21 PM
"Obama is better as an underdog opponent."
Four legs good, two legs better, huh Andrew?
Posted by: Jeff | September 8, 2008 5:11 PM
GUESS WHO CNN IS AFTER NOW>PALIN'S religion.
Ever hear any of them ask questions about Obama's Black Liberation Theology beliefs? Ever hear them even breath the words BLT ha?
Posted by: NEW INFO>CNN NOW AFTER PALIN'S RELIGION | September 8, 2008 6:40 PM
NEW INFO>CNN NOW AFTER PALIN'S RELIGION | September 8, 2008 6:40 PM
You sound like the KKK to me with this comment.
Posted by: lochnessmonster | September 9, 2008 7:42 AM
There is NO cat fight between Govenor Palin and Senator Clinton.
Cat fights are a thing of the past.
These days, Women support other Women.
Women know, that is the only way we get representation for our rights.
Sarah Palin will make history on November 4th 2008, by becoming the FIRST EVER WOMAN VICE PRESIDENT.
Senator Clinton will make history in four to eight years
by becoming the FIRST EVER
WOMAN PRESIDENT OF THE US.
Posted by: magdalen | September 9, 2008 10:44 AM
Posted by: lochnessmonster | 7:42 AM
I COULDN'T BE THE KKK, I'm a Republican....you don't know your black history very well do you!?
http://gatewaypundit.blogspot.com/2008/03/dear-democrats-letter-from-lt-colonel.html
Posted by: BLACK HISTORY 101 | September 9, 2008 12:53 PM
american people please the world don't need another republican give to Obama a chance
Posted by: gianni | September 9, 2008 2:50 PM