McCain, Obama: Poll-tie shows 'settling': The Swamp
The Swamp
Chicago Tribune

The 'convention dust' has settled, Gallup's Frank Newport says of the tie.

Posted September 13, 2008 1:40 PM
Gallup Sept 13.gif

The Gallup Poll's daily track: A 'statistical tie' once more.

The Swamp

by Mark Silva

In the great, daily-roving national sweep of registered voters, the race between John McCain and Barack Obama has settled into a statistical tie again, following the "bounces'' that each got from their nominating conventions.

Democrat Obama, the junior senator from Illinois, still holds an apparent electoral-vote advantage over Republican McCain, the senior senator from Arizona, in a state-by-state survey of polls - though that edge has eroded in the latest polling, with the numbers of "toss-up'' states growing.

In the national photograph of the race, the Gallup Poll's daily tracking survey today reports a statistical tie: McCain 47, Obama 45, in a poll with a possible 2 percent margin of error. That's pretty much where the candidates for president were before the conventions - actually dead-even at the start.

The newest results come from surveys taken Wednesday through Friday. Frank Newport, editor-in-chief of the Gallup Poll, reports that they show the contest "settling back into the close race that it was before the two weeks that marked both candidates' selections of their vice presidential running mates and the two conventions.''

In the weekend before the Democratic convention, Newport notes, the race was tied 45 to 45 in the Gallup tracks. Now, Newport suggests, the "convention dust" is settling.

"The race underwent predictable 'bounces' -- first for Obama, who with a one percentage point gain had moved out to an eight-point lead, and then for McCain, who moved out to a five-point lead,'' Newport notes of his convention tracks. "Now, it appears that the structure of the race -- after all the sturm und drang of the convention period -- ends up not all that different than when the conventions began.''

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Comments

The Gallup Daily is showing one thing but the real-time poll at http://www.bop-o-rama.com is showing something way different. It is two to one at this poll.


It's been quite surprising to read (elsewhere) that Gallup pollsters may be oversampling Republicans. If polls are to have any integrity at all should they not poll their best guess sample of potential and representative voters?


Why are so many women apoplectic over John McCain’s selection of a running mate? There has been a flurry of emails circulating around the country to and from women who are pleading with their fellow sisterhood to think twice before throwing their support to the Republicans based solely on his vice presidential pick.

There seem to be two major reasons for this agitation that intertwine and make for messy feelings. One is that she is reviving his lackluster campaign with reasons that are reprehensible to women and to those who love them. A revived campaign with a qualified woman would still hurt, but it wouldn’t insult our intelligence. The other reason is that her selection was a bold and bald political move that was made with John McCain’s best interests - not ours.

One of these emails implores women to withhold being too smitten over a vice presidential nominee who shares nothing in common with them regarding issues that will impact their lives for generations to come.

Sarah Palin does not represent women. Not in the areas that affect our lives and those of our children and grandchildren. Sure, she’s pretty, feisty, and “just like us.” But do we really want someone like us? I know next to nothing about almost everything - is this my standard of excellence? Would you not wonder about the quality of our schools if a senior used her argument of having foreign policy experience because Russia is so close to Alaska that she can see it?

As these women write, what exactly does she have in common with the feminine gender besides plumbing? Don’t we also value sex education, birth control, a pro-choice platform, environmental protections, alternative energy development, science, freedom of speech, gun control, separation of church and state?

And this list does not even address her appalling lack of real preparation to be a heartbeat away from a 72 year old four-time cancer survivor. We all really need to think hard about the implications of her taking the presidential oath of office in this crazy world.

A comedian on the Jon Stewart Show said she wanted a leader she can relate to. “Like me, or worse.”

A delegate leaving the Republican convention said that Sarah Palin makes Americans feels like anyone can be president. This sentiment, however, used to be associated with a certain level of achievement commensurate with the office.

Why are we suddenly embracing the ordinary? Suddenly we have elevated mediocrity to be the benchmark for huge success. Stories of how Barack Obama went from food stamps to Harvard is now considered elitist. What has happened to our collective common sense? Don’t we want our children to see an example of how far they can climb with hard work and real accomplishment? Why are we instead foisting an interesting but otherwise woefully unqualified woman to possibly lead us in this increasingly dangerous world?

When a potential American leader says that “you have to be wired in a way of being so committed to the mission that we’re on . . . you can’t blink.” Good Lord, really? I want my leaders to blink like crazy and think and rethink a mission before plundering ahead for the sake of appearing committed. Have we forgotten the unblinking, unwavering decision of our current president to rush into Iraq?

She has morphed Bush’s cowboy mentality into a wilderness one. When she promises us she will not blink, does she realize that using that strategy may work when confronting a bear, but not when facing the threat of nuclear annihilation?

It seems that women who are excited about Palin are voting with the organ in their chest. Men, who describe her as a hot babe, are voting with the organ that’s a little lower down.

We need to engage that organ between our ears, because we could be about to embark upon a slippery slope in our national security if anything should happen to John McCain.

So ladies, please think again before you throw your enthusiastic support for this undeniably interesting, attractive and spunky woman. Maybe instead we can find a better fit for her in the public arena - like the fourth judge on American Idol.




The polls are beginning to reflect the Palin fairy dust is settling and voters are being able to realize that the McCain/Palin ticket would be suicide for the Country..The mere thought of Palin even having a remote chance at having the Presidency fall into her lap should anything happen to McCain should not be accaptable to anyone Republican or Democrat...Her lack of political or foreign knowledge became even more apparant with her interviews..Women have had time to relize that voting for her just because of gender has no place in this election...Given the war and the economy this is just not the year to consider a VP that has to be tutored..BRING OUR SOLDIERS HOME...


Mcbush was trailing until he started with his litany of lies and mud slinging. That just tells me that he has no respect for the American public. He thinks that most people aren't smart enough or motivated enough to seek out the truth.
Well, according to the polls he's right!
And now he has pitbull Palin to help him sling mud! What a beauty she is; with her brilliant grasp of the english language she highlights the Mcbush camps efficiencies! Or is that their inefficiencies?
This is the brain trust that 50% of this country believes in! Scary!!!


I don't believe the American people are "settling" if every other poll shows John McCain's ahead of Obama.


These polls are something else. We won't have a clear view of who is in the lead until around October 15th and maybe Monday we'll have a clearer view from the Palin interview as to how people think the race is going?


The only reason bop-o-rama has Barack being bopped more is because that website is only popular with bored, over-the-hill republicans who don't know how to do anything better on the internet than circulate stupid chain letters and click whatever links are sent to them.


The corrupt politician from the Chicago Daley Machine couldn't fool them forever.


That is not surprising "elsewhere" is probably referencing Dem voters that are just trying to influence the people reading the polls. Besides this Gallup poll is the results of polling registered voters, not potential and representative voters. No poll that takes into consideration anything other than registered voters is useless.


The RCP polls show McCain up 2.4 over Obama. If you look hard enough, you will eventually find a poll that favors your candidate. One reason the polls are not trustworthy.


POINTED REVELATIONS REPORTS…

“McCain’s Ties to Shadowy Security Company Confirmed”
(revised September 13, 2008)

John McCain makes occasional mention of his friend, Admiral Chuck Larson, whose distinguished career includes the command of nuclear submarines and the management of the Naval Academy.

Not as well known but by no means concealed is Larson’s link to Washington’s ViaGlobal Group, the successor company to ViaFinance and Galway Partners.

ViaGlobal was serving as the “business incubator” for Rosetta Research and Consulting LLC, best known as the company involved in luring Afghan tribal chieftain and accused drug kingpin Haji Bashar Noorzai to the U.S., where he was arrested in April of 2005.

Rosetta’s Department of Defense sponsors, Paul Wolfowitz and Donald Rumsfeld, brokered an introduction to CNN military commentator General David Grange, who serves as an advisor to ViaGlobal.

Grange made the initial arrangements between Rosetta, represented by former Katten Muchin Zavis Rosenman partner and ex-NSC attorney Joseph Myers, now with the International Monetary Fund, and ViaGlobal’s chairman, Frank Gren.

Another former Katten Muchin Zavis Rosenman partner, Carole Van Cleefe, brokered a deal between Rosetta and Oracle. Oracle project managers Barbara Bleiweiss and Peter Bloom attempted to establish a joint venture using an existing contract vehicle with the Foreign Terrorist Tracking Task Force (FTTTF), but was unsuccessful due to Rosetta’s cost demands.

Gren and his colleagues sought to obtain additional funding for Rosetta, as millions of dollars in investment money had been spent on payments to secure the confidence of Noorzai. Myers, Gren, and others sought sources of funding such as a contract with the FBI as well as an investment from fallen tobacco lawyer Dickie Scruggs.

ViaGlobal appears to have used McCain, acting through staffer Chris Paul, to divert a 2004 FBI internal investigation into dealings between Rosetta contractors and certain FBI employees. This was the subject of a meeting held with the FBI’s Deputy Director John Pistole in late 2004.

In mid 2006, the Department of Justice’s Office of the Inspector General conducted an investigation into criminal activities of the same FBI employees. Rosetta’s phone, email, and contractual records were subpoenaed. In addition, several Rosetta officials and advisors were questioned for several weeks.

Papers filed as part of the Noorzai case show that Rosetta, acting under the orders of senior U.S. officials, promised Noorzai he would not be arrested. Rosetta also paid substantial sums to various foreign government officials who then lied to Noorzai about the actual purpose of the meetings. Noorzai had been indicted as a drug kingpin, and since efforts to secure his cooperation in other matters had failed, the decision was made to bring him to the United States and arrest him.

The papers also show that Rosetta sought and obtained in excess of ten million dollars from investors, who believed they were investing in a security company.

Instead, the money was being used to finance the lavish and extensive travel needed to locate Noorzai and gain his confidence. The investors are understandably upset, but since the Rosetta principals are known only as “Mike” and “Brian” no success has been had in locating them.

Rosetta also had improper relationships with a handful of FBI employees, who were later investigated for contributing to Rosetta’s alleged violations of the Foreign Corrupt Practices and Neutrality Acts.

As part of the incubation arrangement, ViaGlobal sought to obtain ownership of Rosetta’s proprietary database of terrorist financiers as well as access to the extensive network of contacts in the Middle East developed as part of the dealings with Noorzai.

For more information: pointedrevelations@yahoo.com


McCain's calculated Palin bump, grind, bounce and jiggle are now predictably heading south, soon to be followed by the mean spirited doddering old coot himself into retirement. Thank goodness and good riddance once and for all.


Of course it;s a tie - NOBODY HAS VOTED YET !

Why anyone reads, listens or is at all interested in this nonsense is beyond me.


All that matters are about 4 key swing states- places like VA where the dems have registered 200K new voters, in a state that voted for Bush by only 250K votes in 04. Polling on this election is going to be tough sledding and inaccurate. Remember 98?


Obamas....are you blind? Your candidate should surrender rather than face a landslide. The present trend is steeply down, down, and out for Obama. Hillary and Sarah sank your ship.


I do believe in this poll game. Follow the money trails of Barak & Mccain and then you will know who will win the presidency. wake up america.. Barak has cash on hand totalling to 45 Million dollars left on his safe box as of last quarter according to CNN money track.
This election will make history


Everyone is worried that Sarah Palin could become President should something happen to McCain. What if Biden were to become President if something happened to Obambama? What is the difference?


GO JOHNNY GO!

Obama, you go too.
Far away.
And don't come back


McCain '08


It would do John McCain good if he stopped his sleezy, racist and misleading campaign lies, and run a campaign with integrity so that he may retire with dignity, rather than be remembered as a one time honorable man who sank into the depths of Dante's Inferno led by his Rove type campaign people. It is probably too late for that because by accepting Palin as VP candidate, he has revealed that his personal aggrandizement is more important to him than his country. His campaign's 'American First' slogan is the ultimate in hypocracy.


Palin had said during her acceptance spech that she and Mccain are for small government. But at same time she said also that she will the voice of all families with children with special need. From history we know that smaller government means reducing social programs to a minimal. Families with children with special need are part of those programs. I urge voters to pay attention carefully to what Mccain and Palin are saying because these elections are very important. Listen deep in side of you when entering the voting booth. Think of how you have been agonizing for the past eight years during which Mccain agreeing with Bush nearly on all issues if you are not one of the few elites. It's not enough to have a woman as VP at white House for the sake of having a woman there as a VP.

Let me say something about Palin not blinking when asked to join the ticket. It's important to think about a promotion offered to you if you are not an opportunitist. An opportunitist does not care about the pros and cons. I rest my case.

Thanks


Palin had said during her acceptance speech that she and Mccain are for small government. at the same time she also said that she will be the voice of all families with children with special need. From history we know that smaller government means reducing social programs to a minimal. Families with children with special need are part of those programs. I urge voters to pay attention carefully to what Mccain and Palin are saying because these elections are very important. Listen deep in side of you when entering the voting booth. Think of how you have been agonizing for the past eight years during which Mccain had agreed with Bush nearly on all issues if you are not one of the few elites. It's not enough to have a woman as VP at white House for the sake of having a woman there as a VP.

Let me say something about Palin not blinking when asked to join the ticket. It's important to think about a promotion offered to you if you are not an opportunitist. An opportunitist does not care about the pros and cons. I rest my case.

Thanks


For the past few decades White Americans have been hoping for a Black candidate for President of The United States of America that they could be comfortable supporting. Barack Obama is that Black candidate. Long live America! May God bless and keep America!


Even if you do not like or appreciate the last 8 yrs of the Bush administration, know this: under his leadership several hundred attempts of terrorists and radical organizations to attack the US interests, agencies and business overseas have been stopped. One dozen of such attemtps to attack the US homeland have been stopped. Bush has kept the country safe! If you think McCain has always voted to support Bush initiatives, read the record. Recognize that McCain has voted to support Congressional Democrat initiatives as often as he supported Republican initiatives. Senator Obama has never voted to support a Republican initiative. National Security & Safety should be the number one interest in our country's choice on this election day. Everything else takes second!
And I am NOT a Republican. I am a staunch Independent who has always voted on 'the person' based on the character and integrity of that person. On this coming election, forget all the promises. I ask you to consider the character and integrity of the candidate above all else.


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