Obama hit by white flight in NJ?: The Swamp
The Swamp
Posted September 16, 2008 1:47 PM
The Swamp

by Frank James

New Jersey has been reliably Democratic in recent presidential elections. But the latest polling suggests it may not be so safely blue this time around.

Quinnipiac University's Polling Institute has a new poll that indicates that Sen. Barack Obama is essentially tied with Sen. John McCain right now, with Obama at 48 percent and McCain at 45 percent of likely voters in New Jersey.

The Quinnipiac pollsters write:

Fueled by a surge of support from white voters, Republican Sen. John McCain has narrowed a 10-point gap and now trails Democratic Sen. Barack Obama 48 - 45 percent among New Jersey likely voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a 51 - 41 percent Sen. Obama lead in an August 13 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

In this latest survey, white voters back Sen. McCain 56 - 37 percent, up from 50 - 42 percent August 13. Black voters support the Democrat 93 - 7 percent, compared to 94 - 1 percent. Men back McCain 53 - 40 percent, reversing a 48 - 45 percent Obama lead, while women stay with Obama 54 - 38 percent, compared to 53 - 38 percent.

But white women back McCain 50 - 42 percent, compared to 46 - 44 percent for Obama Aug. 13. Independent voters shift from 45 - 42 percent for Obama to 47 - 43 percent for McCain.

So it's white flight from the African-American guy, according to this poll. That's so New Jersey.

Quinnipiac doesn't appear to be an outlier. A new Marist poll of registered voters which was released last week also showed the race tightening to a lead of three points for Obama.

Other recent polls give Obama a bit more of a lead. Real Clear Politics shows the average of recent polls give Obama a 5.8 percentage-point lead. A Monmouth/Gannett poll gave Obama his biggest New Jersey advantage, giving him an 8 percentage-point lead.

But no poll shows Obama at more than 50 percent. This has to be a concern to the Obama campaign. In 2004, Sen. John Kerry beat President Bush 50 percent to 46 percent in New Jersey.

And that Democratic percentage was down from 2000 when Al Gore got 56 percent of the vote to Bush's 40 percent.

So New Jersey could be becoming a battleground state which would make it just like it's big neighbor to the west, Pennsylvania.

That's a challenge for the Obama campaign since the two big media markets--New York City and Philadelphia--that serve New Jersey's largest population centers are expensive. It means the Obama campaign will likely be spending money in those places few observers expected it'd have to spend.

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Comments

Gov. John Corzine's kowtowing to organized labor and state budget debacle can't be helping Obama, either.


Not to worry. When 2050, or thereabouts, rolls around those whites who flee anything that looks black or other, will be members of the minority, and in the words of the song "Sinner man, sinner man where you gonna run to on that day." They may, just may, be in the market for a friend and their fleeing will be futile as the Langeliers advance upon them.


the best is yet to come

I fearlessly predict, as soon as McCain's campaign has gotten all the mileage from Sarah Palin that it can, that it will announce that Sarah Palin is withdrawing from the VP nomination due to the continuing witch hunt by the bad liberals. This will bring her more sympathy when she finally publicly acknowledged as the incompetent and crooked politician she is. She will also be able to handle the fallout better in the seclusion of the Alaska governor's mansion better than on the campaign trail. Oh, McCain's new VP - Romney. He will look like superman compared to Palin, and the press, and American public, will be so fatigued chasing down republican boogy men, they will forget all his previous negatives.


JUst show people are fed up Obam taiking them like they were MORONS-


Just show people are fed up with Obama taiking them like they were MORONS-


When all else fails it's a racist thing of course. We can expect more of this in the coming weeks before the election. The tiring McCain = Bush mantra is as pathetic as the racial mantra.


Blacks 93-7 for Obama. Whites 56-37 for McCain.

Obviously, it's the White voters who are voting along racial lines. At least according to Swamp journalist Frank James.

That conclusion is soooo Frank James.


Actually, McCain improved six percent among African-Americans as well as six percent among whites. Could it be everyone is fleeing Obama?


Here goes the "race card" being played again...


Something is going on in the polls. At http://www.boppoll.com, Obama's number is now more than twice McCain's.


Polls are truly for entertainment value only. No poll is an infallible arbiter. Conclusion: Don't pay attention to the polls. Pay attention to the facts. Get informed. Do your research. I believe when the dust settles and cooler heads prevail, we'll be celebrating Obama's win.


Many of the problems our economy faces have been brought on by high oil and high gasoline prices. For the past 2 years, the Democratic leadership, including Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid, and Barack Obama had pulled all sorts of strings to make the American people believe that the economy is collapsing. They have not passed up any opportunity to hurt the economy in order to make their point. Refusing to take common sense steps to keep oil and gasoline prices low is just one thing the Democratically controlled Congress has done to hurt the economy. We are now sending several billion dollars each and every day overseas. Our money is employing foreign workers to drill, pump, refine, and transport oil, instead of employing American workers to do those same jobs. Who in their right mind would question the impact this currency drain is having? Higher gas prices make it more difficult to meet one's home mortgage payments. And defaulting on Mortgages in part has brought on the current crisis. So should some of the fault of our current Wall Street Crisis be laid at the feet of Pelosi, Reid, Obama, and their other liberal Democratic friends? Without a doubt it should!


"white voters back Sen. McCain 56 - 37 percent ...

Black voters support the Democrat 93 - 7 percent"

who's being racist? it'll be the Blacks as shown by all the polls! If it weren't for the Black's pro-Black stance, this battle is already lost for Obama.

so, the knife cuts both ways, but more so on one side.


Obama has fresh ideas. The McCain campaign is stealing them. Change, new energy sources replacing oil, reforming Washington, and, just yesterday for more government regulation of Wall Street! McCain is coming round more and more to Barack Obama. I am going to vote for the one with the fresh and correct ideas, not the copy cat.

Anyway, immitation is the sincerest form of flattery. It's clear that McCain and Palin sincerely admire Obama.

Obama, all the way, baby!!!!!!!


OK since this guy wants to talk "race" lets talk about the Bradley Effect. The US press has been mum since HRC threw in the towel but I still see the British press quoting democrats about the Bradley Effect. They're saying the polls have inflated Obama's ratings by 4 to 6 percent because liberals are embarased to tell pollsters they're voting for a white guy over a black guy. They're not doing so based on race but they still feel guilty. In a liberal state like NJ the effect could be very strong. Not so much in red states because conservatives don't feel guilty about voting for a conservative no matter what his color. Liberals think in terms of race (racist), not conservatives, People have short memories to forget the Confederacy was ALL democrats, Jim Crow was the democrats, it was Lyndon Johnson and the democrats who opposed civil rights legislation when Eisenhower was president. They only supported it when it became inevitable and they could take the credit.


Jane, I just want to point out that George W. Bush has been promoting alternative fuel sources (ethanol), government reform (think earmarks now that the Democrats are in control of Congress) and better regulation of Wall Street (through his Secretary of Treasury). May I say, perhaps, that Obama's copying Bush. Like you said, imitation's the sincerest form of flattery


I dont beleive these polls; Or think there is a lot of volatility in the economic and foreign affairs climate. So they are not plausible at this point. The bottomline is that McCain and Obama need to step up their game. Right now Obama has more crediability on the economy since he has been talking about the markets, home foreclosure and job losses for over 2 yrs. During the primaries McCain hardly talked about the economic climate and he pretty much told the middle class you are on your own. He said you take on the debt then you are responsible for it the government wont help you even if Wall St. did something wrong. Being from NJ I can tell you this we dont like wars and we dont like liars. So McCain wont win NJ. We are not afraid of race we are afraid of stupidity!


Jane, I just want to point out that George W. Bush has been promoting alternative fuel sources (ethanol), government reform (think earmarks now that the Democrats are in control of Congress) and better regulation of Wall Street (through his Secretary of Treasury). May I say, perhaps, that Obama's copying Bush. Like you said, imitation's the sincerest form of flattery


Not to worry, I remember in 2004, they said Bush was closing in on NJ and he event went for a visit, but in the end NJ went for Kerry by 8.


John McCain is a deeply honorable man. Sarah Palin is exciting and principled as well.

Barack Obama voted for Illinois Senate Bill 99, which replaced sex education for grades 6-12 with sex education for K-12. Where did John McCain lie about Obama there? He didn't.

Barack Obama will raise your taxes. If you look at his spending proposals, it's guaranteed.

John McCain has a rating of 100% on opposing corrupt earmarks.

Sarah Palin, in two years as Governor of Alaska, broke a forty-year deadlock on a major gas pipeline, and AS A SIDE EFFECT, forced the oil companies to negotiate in public instead of using back-room, closed-door deals with her predecessor. That's the kind of reform we need!

Obama's years as a community organizer resulted in low-income housing that ended up boarded up and condemned, with decrepit playgrounds, and other failures. His only success: Voter registration.

The McCain/Palin team is strong on finances, strong on energy, strong on foreign policy and national defense.

We can recover from four years of a bad choice, but it wouldn't be easy. I hope we don't have to.


Are we as Americans really as ignorant as these post would suggest? Blacks vote 90% or more democratic every election for the past 40 years if not more P.S. They vote for the white guy. Go do some research before you post some RACIST yeah I said it B.S. Also go check the Presidental Economic Report The U.S. Dept of Labor The U.S. Census Bureau and gpoaccess.gov so you can educate yorself that
1. By all economic standards Democrats are more conservative and govern better it is a fact. More economic growth, less government debt, lower unemployment FACT FACT FACT!
2. No matter how many times a LIE is repeated and no matter who repeats it. YOU the Press, MSM, the Republicans, it is still a LIE!
3. There is no excuse for ignorance if we only produce 3% of the world's oil but use 25% drill until you kill the earth and we still won't have enough oil and go check the nuclear plant tax breaks and incentives congress already approved. Then ask yourself, Why aren't people already building these plants?
4. FACT reublicans controled the House and Senate for 14 of the past 16 years and the republican senate has filibustered all democratic solutions. Once again go educate yourself before you start posting LIES AKA Republican Talking Points. People might just go Fact Check and find out you are a liar.


There is a good article that all should read at the NYT, Sept 11, 2003, it's called "New Agency Proposed to Oversee Fannie and Freddie" It was a proposal from Bush to clean up the corruption at Fannie and Freddie, too bad the DEMS and the Homebuilder Lobby stopped that REFORM.


Republicans love to blame the Democratic Congress for all the country's problems. Like we don't remember that the Repubs controlled Congress since 1994. A repub Pres and split Senate have kept Congress from doing anything in the short time the Democrats have controlled the house. Let all Americans remember this and vote out the party which has really caused the downfall of America. We do need change and McSame is not it.


Apparently, blacks are fleeing Obama, too. His support among black rose 1%, while McCain's has increase Seven-Fold: from 1% to 7%. Maybe it's just "liberal-unqualified" flight. Or is any opposition to the One automatically racist?


Democrats Questioned Whether Obama Is Ready To Serve As Commander In Chief:

Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE) Reaffirmed That Obama Was Not Ready To Be Commander In Chief. ABC's George Stephanopoulos: "You were asked is he ready. You said 'I think he can be ready, but right now I don't believe he is. The presidency is not something that lends itself to on-the-job training.'" Sen. Biden: "I think that I stand by the statement." (ABC's "This Week," 8/19/07)

Sen. Biden: "Having talking points on foreign policy doesn't get you there." ("Biden Lashes Out At Obama," ABC News' "Political Radar" Blog, blogs.abcnews.com, 8/2/07)
Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) Said That While She And Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) Had Crossed "The Commander In Chief Threshold ... You Will Have To Ask Senator Obama With Respect To His Candidacy." Sen. Clinton: "In this election we need a nominee who can pass the commander-in-chief test. Someone ready on day one to defend our country and keep our families safe. And we need a president who passes that test, because the first and most solemn duty of the president of the United States is on protect and defend our nation. And when there is a crisis and when the phone rings whether it's 3:00 p.m. or 3:00 a.m. In the White House, there is no time for speeches and on the job training. Senator McCain will bring a time of experience to the campaign. I will bring a lifetime of experience and Senator Obama will bring a speech he gave in 2002. I think that is a significant difference. I think that since we now know Senator Mc Cain will be the nominee for the party, national security will be front and center in this election. We all know that. And I think it's imperative that each of us be able to demonstrate we can cross the commander in chief threshold. And I believe that I have done that. Certainly Senator McCain has done that. And you will have to ask Senator Obama with respect to his candidacy." (CNN's "Newsroom," 3/8/08)

Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT) Called Obama's Foreign Policy Statements "Confusing And Confused." Sen. Dodd: "Over the past several days. ... Senator Obama's assertions about foreign and military affairs have been, frankly, confusing and confused. He has made threats he should not make and made unwise categorical statements about military options." (Anne E. Kornblut, "Obama Again Stirs Up Rivals With Statement On Use Of Nukes," The Washington Post's "The Trail" Blog, blog.washingtonpost.com, 8/2/07)


Sorry, whites aren't fleeing Obama because he's black... they supported him previously.

They are leaving because of Palin. Period. She is as exciting as Obama WAS... but actually has some type of resume.

Obama has a resume, but won't talk about it. What did he organize? Why won't he talk about his time at ACORN? Terrorist friends? Etc.

They got on the Obama bandwagon, but are falling off, just like everybody else now that we see that Obama is just another politician. And, it looks as if Palin isn't just another politician.

Her resume is thin, but she has a real record of reform - even going against her own party. That takes character.

Name one thing Obama reformed, or went against the Democrats to reform. I don't know of anything either.

Everyone will blame racism when Obama loses. When Democrats lose, it's not because thier candidate is bad, it's always somebody else's fault, and the racism charge will come up.

People see and like Palin (for now), that's why they're leaving. They see her as the 'new' and the 'reformer'. She is, and she has.


But I dont understand when people say that when blacks support Obama 90% is racism. First black people have been voting whites all the time since they were allowed to vote. Second, its common knowledge that blacks have been voting democrats for many elections before Obama. Its only surprising when white democrats now turn around to vote McCain - a man who stands opposite to their issues like economy and women issues.


Stop this Democrats did this, or Republicans did this.

They are BOTH at fault for this!
If you do not believe that, you are part of the problem!

Fannie & Freddie? Yep, Demos fault, but the Repubs didn't have the guts to change things.

The falling dollar? Repubs fault. But the Demos didn't help.

High gas prices? Both at fault. Repubs didn't fight and Demos didn't allow domestic drilling.
Repubs started the problem while in power, but gas prices have doubled since the Demos took over and promised to reduce gas prices with their "energy plan". That was a crock too. BOTH AT FAULT.

I mean, if we're going to use oil, why not get it here? Sheesh!

If you can argue that McCain is just another Bush, then I can say that Obama is another Carter.


Guess the "light" that Obama wanted the folks to see ...just may be working since it actually reveals all that is wrong with Obama: $1 Billion in Pork Barrell (to the tune of $1mil per working day) since he has been in office; Talks Equal pay for Equal Work .. but pays the women on his staff .83 cents on the $1 compared to men; rambles.. unless he has a teleprompter (now he has to carry the crutch with him on the campaign trail!); They see him as the egotistical person that he is..Obama has effectively turned his campaign into 'whine" He is no leader and this country would do well to make sure McCain gets elected!


I just noticed yesterday (at a US News and World Report article) that every comment by a NJ reader was pro-McCain. This article confirms the suspicion I had that NJ is changing from Blue to Purple.

As a white person I know that my pro-McCain stance has nothing to do with Obama's race and that I would welcome a Black presidential candidate who is more than high-filutin' rhetoric and who has fewer question marks than Obama regarding his/her character, motivations, business dealings, etc.

I have noticed that most African-American readers attribute any shift toward McCain to be race-related (but they do not regard the overwhelming 90%+ AA vote FOR Obama to have anything to do with the racial differences of the two candidates).

Therefore, not knowing anything about the writer of this article (other than his name), it is my guess that he is African-American, since it is usually only AA's who see this race as being about color. Perhaps I am wrong, but it would be an anomaly for a white person to think along these lines.


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