For the first time, Gallup says, a majority of independent voters leans in one direction: Republican John McCain's
by Mark Silva
Is it women, or independents?
Gallup says it's independent voters who are behind John McCain's convention "bounce," and that, for the first time in Gallup's daily tracking, a majority of independent voters is leaning toward one candidate: The Republican.
The six-point bounce that McCain gained in Gallup's daily tracking sureys - with the Republican leading Democratic rival Barack Obama by 49-44 percentage points in the first full round of surveys completed after the end of McCain's convention - is "largely explained'' by independents shifting to McCain "in fairly big numbers,'' Gallup's Lydia Saad reports. Pre-convention, they lined up 40 percent for McCain. Post-convention: 52 percent.
ABC News reports a 20-point shift in white woman toward McCain -- perhaps part of that Sarah "Palinomenon.'' Gallup is looking more closely at independents.
This is critical ground in this contest, because McCain's appeal always has centered on his attraction to voters who hold no allegiance to any political party. And Obama has based his appeal on a call for "change'' from the status quo, another lure for the independent, swing-voter. If this is where their contest will be fought, the polling would suggest that McCain gained some serious ground with his convention - and his running mate-pick.
"The surge in political independents who favor McCain for president marks the first time since Gallup began tracking voters' general-election preferences in March that a majority of independents have sided with either of the two major-party candidates,'' Saad notes. "Prior to now, McCain had received no better than 48 percent of the independent vote and Obama no better than 46 percent, making the race for the political middle highly competitive.''
In addition, a slim group of 'pure independents' -- those with no political leanings to either major party -- grew more favorable to McCain by an even larger amount. McCain was preferred over Obama by 20 percent of pure independents in Gallup tracking from Aug. 29-31. In the latest three-day rolling average, from Sept. 5-7, McCain is favored by 39 percent of non-leaning independents, a 19-point increase.
The convention in St. Paul appears to have provided "two important boosts to the McCain-Palin ticket,'' Saad reports. "First, according to the latest USA Today/Gallup poll, conducted Sept. 5-7, McCain has energized his Republican base and, as a result, has potentially strengthened his positioning on Election Day with "likely voters."
"Second, as the Gallup Poll daily trends discussed here show, voter movement toward McCain since the Republican convention occurred mainly with independents, thus broadening McCain's appeal beyond the party. Republicans had already lined up for McCain before the convention started. Now, they are excited, and are joined by more independents than at any other time in the campaign. Those gains may not last -- 'bounces' rarely do -- but they enable McCain to launch the next phase of the campaign with the knowledge of what his winning coalition might look like.''
The tracks from Sept. 5-7 and Aug. 29-31 are each based on interviews with 2,733 registered voters, and carry possible overall margins of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
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Comments
Independents are seeing an Obama who is tragically inarticulate without
a printed speech; a man who has changed positions on virtually everything he formerly opposed from the Iraq surge to charter schools; who threw sand in the eyes of women voters everywhere by choosing an older, white male as running mate over a woman; and who cannot explain his past associations with an admitted terrorist. The only group still standing totally with him are the left wing media.
Posted by: Sophia | September 9, 2008 1:25 PM
I'm an independent and totally for Obama. Not sure what you're talking about Sophia. McCain's got a huge set of flip flops. He just pawns it off as a strategic redirection of tactics and the supposed left-wing media as you say, swallows it hook, line and sinker. Apparently you do too.
And to call Obama inarticulate is probably the height of ignorance.
Posted by: Joe | September 9, 2008 1:38 PM
And here's that list of McCain flip flops.
thecarpetbaggerreport.com/flipflops
alternet.org/election08/90956/?page=entire
Enjoy.
Posted by: Joe | September 9, 2008 1:40 PM
As a Democrat I feel that the lists of posatives and negatives for each set of candidates is long and complex. Obama is charismatic but shallow, Biden is a good choice but there were better. McCain is experienced and flexibly bi-partisan but Republican, and Palin is an exciting strong woman but "out of touch" right wing. The list goes on.
McCain had a lot to offer before he chose Palin as running mate, she puts icing on the cake for marginalized middleaged women voters, but their party needs to put an end to ridiculous "Liberal" bashing. I genuinely think that the Democrats have willfully stomped on the best candidate and the best political hand they were ever dealt. Why should the rank and file hang around to pick up the pieces?
Posted by: Rosa | September 9, 2008 1:42 PM
That's insane. Obama tragically inarticulate? I listen to both candidates' town halls constantly on Potus08, the XM channel that broadcasts events live without commentary and provides totally down the middle shows. McCain constantly stutters and misspeaks. You can glean what you want from that, I don't think it's an issues, but it's crazy to suggest that somehow Obama is both inarticulate and smoothtalker at the same time.
Go spread your debunked myths elsewhere.
Posted by: Carl | September 9, 2008 1:44 PM
The all know we can have many republics.
SECESSIONIST…we must unite behind Sarah Palin. Her husband, Todd, was a member the Alaskan Independence Party working for Alaska to secede from the United States.
The director of Division of Elections in Alaska reported that Todd Palin registered in October 1995 to the Alaska Independence Party, a radical group that advocates for Alaskan secession from the United States, and remained a member until 2002, when he registered as undeclared while his wife ran for office.
She is more than sympathetic to the cause of secession; she is a participant.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZwvPNXYrIyI
Sarah congratulates the secession party only 6 months ago on their political gains.
Her pastor knows how evil America is and often preaches that America will be punished. A cause all evangelicals share. Listen below.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PizrJLV30yI&feature=related
Now, with her elected as VP just we can realize the Republic of Confederate States, the Republic of Texas, the Republic of California and the Republic of Alaska.
The time has come elect a subversive who pulled the eyes over the political system of the U. S. establishment.
Yea, let's elect this lady...hhhmmmm
Posted by: basementfrog | September 9, 2008 1:48 PM
The shift can largely be attributed to the excitement around the newest female entrant to the game. I am sure poll results will change by the end of the week when Palin would have started answering questions about her ability to run and what she is bringing to the table. McCain is nothing short of tired worn-out politician of the old who is taking advantage of the aggressive campaign Republicans run which ultimately have taxpayers like us paying the final painful prize. Bush is an example. Please vote McCain if you want the legacy of Bush to endure, but if you want the opposite, then OBAMA is your man. Look before you leap and strike while the iron is still hot. This country will sink further into the abyss if she is subjected to another sordid and excruciating 4 year term of Republican leadership.
Posted by: kennedy Obinna, Chicago | September 9, 2008 1:51 PM
Back in 2000 I heard that John McCain had fathered a child out of wedlock with a black woman ...and that he had collaborated with the VC ! ! !
How come we're not hearing any of that stuff this time around ? ? ? And who started those rumors anyway ? ! ? ! ?
Posted by: fear_itself | September 9, 2008 1:51 PM
Rosa: I'm not sure what you mean by shallow. The dude is really smart, and surrounds himself with smart people, like all strong leaders. People who agree and disagree, and add value. His biggest problem is he's terrible when talking directly to the media, and the media is obsessed with his charisma and not reporting on his facts. When I listen to the town halls of both candidates on Potus08, he is sharp, on point, and insightful. McCain is too, on most things, just so you don't think I'm being partisan.
Posted by: Joe | September 9, 2008 2:16 PM
Back in 2000 I heard that John McCain had fathered a child out of wedlock with a black woman ...and that he had collaborated with the VC ! ! !
How come we're not hearing any of that stuff this time around ? ? ? And who started those rumors anyway ? ! ? ! ?
Posted by: fear_itself | September 9, 2008 1:51 PM
-----------------------------
That rumor was found to be untrue. You may want to research it on the internet to get the truth. The other night I watched a documentary about McCain (on CNN I think) and it included the story on the rumor.
Posted by: Michael | September 9, 2008 2:59 PM
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/08/AR2008090802451.html?nav=rss_business
Here is a story in the Washington Post that should interest, every American, but especially, the Independents of America !!
SUPPORT OUR TROOPS, BRING THEM HOME, ALIVE AND WHOLE. NOW.
Posted by: Don Fitzgerald, Chicago | September 9, 2008 3:51 PM
fear itself--"who started those rumors , anyway?" KKK Karl and his henchmen, which makes it all the more incredible that McCain is embracing the same people and the same tactics.
Posted by: dt | September 9, 2008 5:25 PM
fear itself.... that was actually a Karl Rove rumor when he worked for George Bush.... amazingly, McCain now takes advice from Karl Rove, the scurrilous one.
Posted by: mort | September 9, 2008 6:37 PM
Barack "More of the Same" Obama continues to spew the same old worn-out, Democrat party line: more taxes, more handouts, more inept foreign-policy decisions. As an independent woman voter, I solidly support McCain. I'd rather have a leader I respect than a well-versed talking head.
Posted by: Indie | September 9, 2008 6:44 PM
McCain-Palin with a lead.
Today Mark Silva admits a "bounce" for McCain-Palin. Yesterday the same Mr. Silva proclaimed there was no bounce.
Silva and the rest of Obama's Swamp surrogates must be feeling suicidal.
Posted by: Bruce | September 10, 2008 12:04 AM