Obama, McCain polling-tie again: The Swamp
The Swamp
Posted September 6, 2008 4:00 PM
Gallup Sept 6.gif

A convention bounce for Barack Obama and a rebound bounce for John McCain, and the field is leveling again: The Gallup daily track.

The Swamp

by Mark Silva

A couple of bounces, and the playing field levels.

An Obama "convention bounce'' and a McCain "rebound bounce.''

Barack Obama and John McCain went into their nominating conventions tied in the Gallup Poll's daily tracking surveys. And now, they are virtually tied again.

Obama, the Democratic junior senator from Illinois nominated for president by his party, gained an eight-point advantage over McCain, the Republican senior senator from Arizona nominated by his party, coming out of the Democratic convention in Denver. But now, with a day of surveys following the Republican convention included in the three-day track -- McCain running strong in Friday's post-convention surveys -- McCain has largely erased that advantage, according to Gallup.

"Barack Obama's advantage over John McCain has been shrinking since the start of the Republican National Convention, and is now down to just two percentage points -- 47 percent to 45 percent -- too close to call,'' Gallup's Lydia Saad reports today of a track that carries a possible margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points.

"Obama had led McCain by as much as eight percentage points in recent days, both during and immediately after the Democratic National Convention in Denver,'' Saad notes. "Those results reflected a convention bounce for Obama of four percentage points in his support among registered voters (from 45 percent to 49 percent).

"It appears that McCain is now enjoying a rebound bounce coming out of the Republican National Convention in St. Paul that is nullifying some of Obama's gains.'

"The interviewing for today's report partially reflects public opinion following the highlights of the Republican National Convention on Wednesday and Thursday nights when McCain and his running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, made their acceptance speeches. This includes a strong night for McCain in Friday's interviewing, the first full night of interviewing following his acceptance speech.'

"The first Gallup Poll Daily tracking report based on interviewing conducted entirely after McCain's speech (from Friday through Sunday) will be published on Monday. The test for McCain will be whether he can do more than return the race to the absolute tie seen at the beginning of the convention period, and actually lead Obama by a significant margin for the first time since late April/early May.''

For more on the McCain-Obama polling, see Gallup.

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Comments

Okay, Palin supporters, if a female in YOUR family, God forbid, is raped and becomes pregnant - with McCain/Palin in charge, your relative or other close female affiliate would NOT be able to get an abortion. Let's bring this issue into people's homes and see how they really feel about this religious extremist. Fortunately, most Americans will see the light - the more light you shine on Palin, the darker she looks.


OBAMA 08
No McBush


Thankfully, the longer than usual primary season has helped voters to see through the real candidacy of Barack Obama. The fact that the Obama campaign has far more money than the McCain campaign, and can only manage to bring the race to a tie is a sign of trouble for the Obama campaign in November.


* * * * *
Posted by: John_NYC | September 6, 2008 4:54 PM
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You are spewing unadulterated nonsense. Until Roe v. Wade is overturned, McCain and Palin could do nothing about abortion rights. The worst they could do would be to appoint Justices to the Supreme Court who might vote to overturn Roe. Then again, those Justices might not do so. The conservative majority of the Supreme Court could have already overturned Roe in the partial birth abortion case, but they didn't.
*
In any event, overturning Roe wouldn't make abortion's illegal. It would only allow each State to decide for itself if it wants to keep abortion legal and, if so, under what conditions. Many States, and certainly the most of the high population States (except, maybe, Texas), would likely keep abortions available in one form or another. Thus, an abortion could still be had in a different state even if one's home State made abortions entirely illegal. And no, the federal government would not have the ability to make abortions illegal if some States wanted to keep them legal. It doesn't have that power under the Constitution.


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Why would America -REWARD- complete Republican failure ?

We wont.

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Mark, you did a fine enough job of quoting the Gallup people on their useless tracking poll, but in drawing conclusions you really should defer to Nate Silver or Mark Blumenthal or somebody else who knows what he's talking about.


No terrorist loving anti American phony like Obama the con artist.


No terrorist loving anti American phony like Obama the con artist.


I'm wondering if the present polling technology is really reflecting the views of new voters and of voters reachable only by cell phones. From what I've been reading, it looks as if the 'experts' are divided on whether or not the Obama supporters are being under reported. Time will tell, but I'm reminded of the 1948 election - a 3 way contest between Harry Truman, Thomas Dewey, and Strom Thurmond where pollsters predicted a blowout for Dewey. On election night, just after the polls closed, the Chicago Tribune was confident enough to publish with the headline "Dewey by a Landslide!" We bought a paper, swallowed our disappointment and woke up the next morning to learn that the paper and the pollsters were dead wrong; in the Electoral College, Truman won 303 to 180 for Dewey and 39 for Thurmond.
Pollsters are still studying what went wrong in that one but the consensus seems to recognize that there are shifts in demographic patterns and technology that aren't properly accounted for the first time they occur.
I'm hoping that's the case this time because , as I wonder how the polls could be so close after such a disastrous performance by a Republican administration, I'd hate to have to conclude that the American electorate still 'doesn't get it'.
By the way, it's too bad we didn't keep that copy of the Trib. We could have probably sold it now on ebay. But - it was wrong, so we threw it out with the garbage.



At the first comment.

When a President/VP get into power, all their ideals do NOT become immediate law. Mccain/Palin would have to propose a bill to change the NATIONAL law, meaning they would have to AMEND THE CONSTITUTION! In order to amend the constitution, you NEED two-thirds vote in the house and senate. Thus, the anti-abortion amendment would stand NO change of becoming a federal law. However, McCain merely wants the STATES to decide, regardless of what other precedences other states have set in the past.

Please don't attack a viable candidates without understanding the fundamentals of politics.


Ok because the president and vice president have the power to change abortion laws. R U serious. The main thing the president has an affect on is foreign policy


She is not as dark a obama, and that is not comparing skin color. Hope you don't have children that ever go to war.


More economic pain seems in order.
To rouse the "undecided" from the football game.


God save us from the GOP


Oh stop threatening our ovaries every chance you get. Obama's BFF is Senator Bob Casey. There is nowhere women can go in this election. We now have two Republican parties. Warning: Kool Aid is hazardous to a woman's health.


Remember is 2000 the left was telling us that Roe v Wade would be overturned if Bush won? (never mind about the other rumours regarding the draft in 04)

John NYC is a dope. Sorry the election won't come down to opinions on abortion after a rape.


John W, what a completely and utterly foolish post. The Supreme Court certainly could make abortion illegal everywhere in the US at a stroke. They could find that the unborn have all the rights of human beings. That would make abortion murder. No state could leaglize killing the unborn at that point, any more than they could legalize killing blacks. It would violate the equal protection clause.That's the stakes here, whether you agree or disagree. The Radical religious right that Sarah Palin comes from understands that very clearly, and I suspect you do too when you are not being an apologist for the Republican Party and trying to obscure the reality of their positions.


To Chicago Native Retired in Vermont:

One of the biggest mistakes the Democratic electorate makes is to suggest that people are stupid or "don't get it" when they disagree with Democrats. That's attitude is elitist, condescending, and insulting. There are many very intelligent people who vote Republican and many intelligent people on the fence who do not like to be talked down to as you have done. I truly believe that attitudes like yours actually encourage a large portion of the public to vote Republican just to spite to Democrats who think they are superior.


The Gallup poll (check their web site) is a rolling three day poll. Today's number reflect data gathered on Wed. Thurs., and Friday of this week. The number that will tell the story will be Monday's number, which will be based on the three days following McCain's speech. Today's numbers do not in part reflect the impact of Palin's or McCain's speeches. Stay tuned.


Add in the Bradley factor and McCain has at least a 10 point advantage. Sarah can start measuring the drapes at the VP residence.


Palin is as ant-American as they come. She supports the AIC, and her husband is a member, a group that supports secession from the United States of America. Palin=Unamerican. She also doesn't know squat about foreign policy or about the American people, for that matter. She barely graduated from college. I doubt that the American people are going to vote for stupidity again. I want the smart guys this time around. OBAMA/BIDEN '08


Yeah these polls mean nothing.

Especially to Obamabots when he's LOSING!
So Obamaberry Koolaid lovers, when McCain moves ahead come Monday, don't bother reading polls. They will only drive you to drink and death, LOL..
And the REAL bad stuff on Obama won't be brought out until October.
Obama is a disgusting America Hating LOSER!


Has anyone else heard this rumor that Palin had an affair with her husband's business partner? What about this issue with getting her ex brother in law fired. How much has she abused her power. Alaskan politics are as corrupt as Louisiana's. We know nothing about this woman. Expect more to come....


Has anyone else heard this rumor that Palin had an affair with her husband's business partner? What about this issue with getting her ex brother in law fired. How much has she abused her power. Alaskan politics are as corrupt as Louisiana's. We know nothing about this woman. Expect more to come....


Well, yeah, not only is Palin against abortion in the event of rape, she is against support for teen pregnant mothers. So let's say it's 2010, and McCain/Palin are in office. They've now rigged the court with like-minded people. So, if your daughter is raped, not only are you going to have to help bring the baby to term, you ain't getting any support for doing it either. And to think half the country backs this ticket...I don't get it.


Who cares about the national polls? The election isn't decided by the popular vote. It's going to come down to a few swing voters in a few key swing states.


Chicago native. Your point is well taken, but perhaps not in the way you would like. In the last four presidential elections pretty much, the polls have on the eve of the election given a bigger lead to the Democrat candidate
than the final vote actually reflected. In some instances, a dramatically bigger lead to that Democrat candidate. In none of those elections was the Republican candidate's poll numbers equal to or above the percentage of the vote they actually received. Why this is, haven't a clue. But if history is any guide, if Obama and McCain are dead even in the polls on the eve of the election, count of McCain winning by 3 to 5 points.


To Kim. The reason she got her ex bro in law fired is because he threatened to kill her sister and tazard her sisters child. He should have been fired. Get educated on Sarah before you make a judgement. We know more about her than we do Obama and he has been around 19 months as opposed to a week. You would be smarter to ask questions about him and his relationships with people who want Americans dead:(


To Kim. The reason she got her ex bro in law fired is because he threatened to kill her sister and tazard her sisters child. He should have been fired. Get educated on Sarah before you make a judgement. We know more about her than we do Obama and he has been around 19 months as opposed to a week. You would be smarter to ask questions about him and his relationships with people who want Americans dead:(


Has anyone else heard that Obama did coke in college and hangs out with a group of people that bombed federal buildings? We know nothing about this guy...


Scott,

What about all the unintelligent Republicans who vote? Aren't they the ones who think their way of life is more significant than the ways of any others? Sure sounded like Palin did the other night. McCain, too. Bush, Cheney, Rove, Frist, Gingrich, Allen, to name a few others.


Hey Kim, keep up the smear campaign. It's great for taking the luster off the Obama mystique. People are starting to realize he's just another politician who will do anything to win. Change? Yah, right...how does his platform differ from Kerry or Gore?


Okay, Palin supporters, if a female in YOUR family, God forbid, is raped and becomes pregnant - with McCain/Palin in charge, your relative or other close female affiliate would NOT be able to get an abortion. Let's bring this issue into people's homes and see how they really feel about this religious extremist. Fortunately, most Americans will see the light - the more light you shine on Palin, the darker she looks.

Posted by: John_NYC | September 6, 2008 4:54 PM

Quit spreading lies. Anybody with at least an 8th grade Civics/History education knows that if Roe V Wade were to be overturned, the issue becomes a matter of the state. Therefore, states such as Alabama would likely outlaw abortion while states such as Illinois would not.


Just check the facts, you idiots! These candidates will say ANYTHING to get elected so, please, before you show the world how stupid you are, check the facts.


The handlers are hiding Palin and not putting her on the campaign trail because she is unable to field questions. They want to retain the effect of her delivery of Karl Rove's speach. But a time will come when she will have to enter into a live debate. Then, when she spews out lies and distortions (like not knowing what a community organizer really does) she will be challenged, live, on television. She has already completed her task, to get people excited. But which people, beyond the voters? Perhaps young Christian teenage girls will start saying, "But mom, Sarah Palin's daughter had a baby and she didn't get mad at her daughter. Why are you so mad at me? I wish Sarah Palin was my mother!"


It's supposed a year for Democrat but it isn't. If the Democrat can't bring the poll more than 10% which means Democrat in trouble.


Kim, you seem to agree with Sen Obama that it's not OK to waterboard terror suspects, but it is OK to waterboard unborn infants to death.
Last year there were about 140,000 second term abortions in the US. Use Google images to find a picture of a 16wk old human, and you will see arms, legs, head, and heartbeat.
Obama says it's 'above his pay grade' to answer when his daughters became human and had rights.
Sad :-(


What a strange people the Americans are. Most people tend to vote for rulers who are smarter than they are, but Americans hate anyone more intelligent and mostly vote for people dumber than they themselves are. They should therefore never complain about politicians ‘stealing’ policies from one another when they have a contender who probably sneaked peeks at the exam papers of the guy seated at the next desk and still only managed to score 5th last out of 390 students in his class. I surmise he did this having watched him on TV sneaking peeks at the backsides of his selected attractive VP.

He’ll probably win though, because sadly many American males would love having a dumber male plus a ‘hottie’ in the Whitehouse.

It would be better for them to just stick with another term of Bush and get Britney Spears as VP.

Britney at least has some good points!


Well, we know about as much about her as we do/did about Obama, and he seems to be the one running for president. And as for corrupt politics, I have one word for you, CHICAGO. And regardless of McCain's objection to Roe v Wade, he has absolutely no power to make abortion illegal, mainly due to the fact the democrats currently, and likely will continue to, maintain control of the house and senate, and without their approval, he would be unable to choose any new supreme court justice, and any constitutional amendment to make abortion illegal would not need to be approved by the president, and with all of this taken into account, even if he wanted to, John McCain would be completely unable to overturn Roe v Wade.


I am really enjoying reading all your comments. I have to comment on Kim's statement above, however: Do you always take what the National Enquirer says as fact or even possible fact???? It always is disturbing how rumors get started by silly sources and then repeated like there is some truth to them. News flash: if you repeat slander in your personal life you can be liable for slander yourself. These statements about Palin's "affair," written by the National Enquirer, are not only actionable as libel, but I think also this is now an active lawsuit on Palin's behalf. I believe all the rumours to date regarding her have been totally false and it is interesting how people have been trying to destroy her good name, (without success, I might add). Few people have been nominated to government with the level of good character as McCain/Palin have.

And, by the way, I am an attorney myself. I want all to know that the fact that Obama is an attorney does not impress me. The calling to be an attorney is not that special and Harvard is no better than Yale. I am really bothered by his terrorist connections, muslim background, and MIDDLE NAME. I don't care how much you are dissatisfied with America, having someone in office that hates our country is not going to help things!

Just really think about it, America!


Yes, the "BOUNCE" is gone the gap is closing Sunday they should be tied or McCain ahead, Just in time for the Sunday talking head day.

VJ Machiavelli
http://www.vjmachiavelli.blogspot.com


Anyone who votes GOP during a massive economic downturn CAUSED by republicans, really needs to be on medication. Despite how hot their VP election is, despite who patriotic their convention is. Republican policies caused this economy. If you vote for them , you're an idiot!


How long before we learn SARAH PALIN never shot a moose?

PALIN=JOKE! EVEN A REPUBLICAN ISN'T THIS STUPID


So, Obama was leading before the conventions, and he's leading now. And state-by-state (which of course is how we elect Presidents) he's trouncing McCain handily. But then, that wouldn't be much of a news story, would it? So the press generates this bogus "neck and neck" narrative.


i was a dem.most of my life. i turned ind. 10 years ago, i never voted rep. in my life. with palin on the ticket i am voting REP. for the first time. what a breath of fresh air


No community organizer for president. I was one for many years in the democratic party and believe me I don't belong in White House either.


This weekend, I likened the liberal press to Nazi propagandists of WWII. (And the press is liberal. About 80%-90% vote Democratic.) How do you think the people in their living rooms came to hate President Bush in these past eight years? Because the press enjoyed bashing him on your television sets and in your newspapers for eight years. Now the press and everyone they've brainwashed to hate Republicans with their propaganda are now heralding this 2-year Senator Nobody from Illinois as someone who walks on water and can lead the country!

John McCain is John McCain. He is not President Bush, and the Republican party is not an evil party! On the contrary, the Republican party was founded by abolitionists. The Republican-dominated legislature passed the Civil Rights Bills of 1964. Martin Luther King Jr. was a registered Republican. Do your homework, people. Don't blindly listen to everything the liberal press feeds you. The Democrats will pretend to love everyone and will give empty promises for whatever, just so they can pander for your votes. The Republicans have the true record for making positive change in this country. Do your homework! Think for yourself! The Republican people are actually the educated ones who could not be brainwashed by Democratic propaganda!

I am a proud member of the party of Abraham Lincoln and Theodore Roosevelt, and I will never sway! I WILL stand and fight with you, John McCain!!


Secessionism=Terrorism

If a Democratic candidate said that, say, Hawaii should secede from the union, that would be the end for his/her candidacy. Apparently we're supposed to believe that for a Republican that kind of thing is all in good fun.


I strongly urge all voters to examine Obama's and McCain's position on biomedical research. It will immediately become clear that Obama is the only candidate to vote for if you want to support scientific discovery and benefit from new treatments for diseases such as cancer or heart disease.


With respect to the first post by John_NYC, let someone with who understands the law shed some light on the situation.

Were the rights first established in Roe v. Wade and now carried on in Planned Parenthood to be overturned, as almost every other Lochnerian ruling has since been, there would not be a nation-wide ban on abortion.

That is ignorant and an insult to the intelligence of the American people.

Were that decision to be overturned, the right would no longer be controlled by the federal gov't, but instead would become one of the broad powers delegated to the states. Would, say, Mississippi be likely to ban abortion? Certainly. Then again, would California or New York be likely to let it stand? I dare say, certainly.

I'm not going to use the worn out line of 'litigating from the bench,' because sometimes judges simply have to make those calls. Then again, there are times - like this - where they can back away from a political question, as demanded by their own self-imposed justiciability restraints, and let the states sort it out.


I think McCain will win because people on the right will vote their narrow interest and can't accept what is good to fix the fundamental problems in our country that that their leaders have created They will not be happy until they destroy every fiber that keeps a society together as America crashes and burns they will defend their failed policies and admit their mistakes only long enough to sucker you again


Obama's voting record. After all the speeches are over, we are left with the voting record as the road map of a candidate. Obama is to the LEFT of Socialist Bernie Sanders. He is the most extreme of all 100 Senators, and does not reflect the basic Centrism of the country.


It is really amazing to note that, for all their blathering on about how smart they are, the Obama supporters posting here are clearly the less-informed, less-educated group. They seem to believe that the President has almighty powers, and everything that happens can be laid directly at his feet. They're willing to vote "against Republicans" even though Congress has been controlled by Democrats for two sessions now. Two sessions in which they managed a lower approval rating than Bush.

They are using the most pathetic scare tactics, and ridiculous claims in order to coerce people into voting for their candidate... all the while, claiming that is a Republican trick.

Some people need a long look in the mirror.


McCain/Palin is such a confident and refreshing contrast to the cool, aloof, seething-beneath-the-surface of Obama/Biden.

McCain/Palin is change we can actually see and not just have to "hope" for.


One of the posts I read said it all ... Senator Obama (and I use that term loosely) is a result of CHICAGO politics, Chicago style! He promised that he would remain a senator and had no eye on the Presidency. FALSE! When asked what he thought of the problems that were going on in the state capital of Illinois, the state he was elected to aid, he replied that he hadn't been "following" the problems in the state House and Senate. He was too busy campaigning for the office of President that he had declared he would not seek!
As for McCain/Palin, I for one can't wait to cast my ballot for them! I consider myself an Independent, as I don't believe any one party has all the people right for every job. Open your minds up ... you will realize that each office requires certain attributes not always served by one party. It is time for Americans to go to the polls and cast their ballot not for a party, but for a person ... and for President and Vice President I think the answer is clear ... McCain/Pailin!


Ayers, Wright, Marx, Obama 08!

We need a bigger, more socialist, more anti American government. Obama 08!


please do not push this dribble that obama is tied with mccain. no way, check the state by state data...... johnie mc is going to get trashed, he knows it-the dems know and the press know it. so please, please do not try to make a story out of 1 poll at one point in time, try pollster.com for a more reasoned view.


I am confused....for eight long years we've been dealing with the republican party. Our country is a mess, we are in a horrific war that we never should have entered in we've lost thousands of our American sons and daughters. They have either died or have come home paralyzed, they have lost limbs, they have been psychologically damged for the rest of their lives, they have come home blind deaf or both. Republicans have been blinded in a very different way. Do any of you have children in the war....have any of you had to deal with the loss of a child, spouse, brother or sister? Have any of you lost your homes or your jobs? Do any of you enjoy filling your gas tank at the tune of 4.00+ a gallon. How can any of you consider another four years of the republican party. I'm sorry, but I don't get it...I really don't. What is it going to take to make all of you republicans see where your party has taken us? Please explain it, because those of us who want a change in government, want good things for ourselves and our children, want peace and security really don't get why another four years of republicans will get us there....


* * * * *
Posted by: Liz | September 6, 2008 7:05 PM
*
Liz, your arrogance is eclipsed only by your ignorance. The U.S. Supreme Court is not a legislative body and, thus, has no power to make anything "illegal," much less pass laws or tell Congress or State legislatures what laws to pass. In cases not involving the Court's original jurisdiction, its powers are limited to deciding "questions" raised by cases in conformity with the Constitution, treaties and laws of the United States. (See U.S. Const., Art. III, § 2.) As such, your suggestion that it might "make abortion illegal everywhere in the U.S. at one stroke" exhibits a fundamental misunderstanding of its normal process of constitutional adjudication.
*
To do what you suggest it might do, the Supreme Court would have to answer, in the affirmative, the question: "Does the Constitution require the States and federal government to generally make illegal, either through criminal or civil sanction, the practice of abortion?" It simply cannot do so.
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In the first place, out of considerations of federalism and comity, it is not the place of a federal court to tell Congress or State legislatures how to define their laws. As stated in Twining v. New Jersey, 211 U.S. 78, 106 (1908), ". . . [I]n a free representative government, nothing is more fundamental . . . than the full power of the State to order its own affairs and govern its own people, except so far as the Federal Constitution expressly or by fair implication has withdrawn that power." States legislatures have the power, in the first instance, to define their own crimes and torts. (See Patterson v. New York, 432 U. S. 197, 201-02 (1977); and McMillan v. Pennsylvania, 477 U. S. 79, 85 (1986).) And it is not the place of the federal court system to "lightly construe the Constitution so as to intrude upon the administration of justice by the individual States." (Schad v. Arizona, 501 U.S. 624, 638-39 (1991).) Thus, ordering a State or the federal government to make a particular act "illegal" lies outside the power of the Supreme Court. It is, therefore, not surprising that the Supreme Court has never - in its entire history - ordered the States or Congress to criminalize or attach civil penalties to any particular behavior. For this reason alone, the court would have to answer the proposed question in the negative.
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In the second place, prior to Roe v. Wade, 410 U.S. 113 (1973), and its progeny, the law concerning the legality of abortions was purely a matter of State law. The only reason the subject matter acquired federal dimensions it that the Court held that women have a substantive right to privacy under the Constitution that includes a qualified and limited right to terminate a pregnancy. (See Colautti v. Franklin, 439 U. S. 379, 386 (1979) ["This right, we said, although fundamental, is not absolute or unqualified, . . ."].) Overturning Roe would simply involve un-recognizing that right. It would not impose the exact opposite rule by its own force. It would not make abortion illegal everywhere, inasmuch as many States have their own laws permitting abortion, and many (like California) had these laws even before Roe was decided. This, by the way, is the position of John McCain on the abortion issue. He would simply like to see Roe overturned and the matter left to the democratic machinations of each State.
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In the third place, there is scant support for the proposition that all unborn children are "persons" within the meaning of the Constitution, much less that they have all the rights and privileges of persons. Because the Constitution doesn't define "person," the question of when one becomes a "person" must be decided by reference to the common law. (United States v. Sanges, 144 U.S. 310, 311 (1892), and see Roe v. Wade, 410 U.S. at 133-36.) As the Court noted in Roe, the preponderance of the Common Law and English statutory law deemed unborn children "persons" no sooner than the point of "quickening" - i.e. when the child became animated, sometime between the 16th and 20th weeks of pregnancy - as it was believed to be point where the fetus acquired life independent of its mother. (Roe, 410 U.S. at 133-134, 136, and fns. 22 & 23; and Keeler v. County of Amador, 2 Cal.3d 619, 640-641, 470 P.2d 617, (Cal. 1970) (Dissenting opinion of Wright, CJ.) That is the point at which the law attached civil and criminal penalties for the killing of an unborn child. While there may be differences of opinion with regard to abortion rights of a mother, there is no difference of opinion regarding the earliest point at which the common law recognized an unborn child to be a "person." Thus, the Supreme Court would have to make an unforeseen departure from its own jurisprudence to assign personhood to a fetus at a time earlier than quickening. It won't do so, because that would entirely undermine its prevalent textual/historical construction of the Constitution. Hence, there is little chance the Court will ever declare "all" fetuses to be "persons." It is also preposterous to assign the rights of a "person" to one who has not been recognized as a person. Therefore, the ruling you fear and the equal protection problems you envision are all unlikely in the extreme.
*
At this juncture, it is again important to note how the immediately foregoing analysis would make an edict from the court - that all abortions are illegal - a severe intrusion upon the power of the States to define their own laws. If the Court could not, in good conscience, declare all fetuses to be "people" under the Constitution - because the common law of England and America does not support that rule - then it also has no authority under the Constitution to impose that impossible definition upon the States.
*
So, you see, Liz, my position wasn't foolish after all. It is more of the case that you just didn't know where I was coming from, and/or that you don't know what you are talking about.
____________________

BTW - all the Supreme Court cases cited here can be found by entering their name into the search engine at http://supreme.justia.com/index.html


There is no need to convince most internet users that McCain/Palin is bad for this country. What we need to do is get into those retirement communities and klan meetings and spread the word.


John_NYC claimed: “... with McCain/Palin in charge, your relative or other close female affiliate would NOT be able to get an abortion.” That might happen, but would not necessarily occur. It is highly unlikely given the current and projected composition of Congress (first, with regard to judicial confirmations if McCain were to become POTUS, and second, by way of Amendment, regardless of president). Therefore, to make the claim, as John_NYC does, that it definitely would happen ignores facts, misapprehends our legal and political systems, and misleads.
*
To understand a signal and, in contrast, highly relevant difference between McCain and Obama, consider their relative records on nominations to the United States Supreme Court by presidents not of their own party. Senator McCain did the principled thing in that circumstance; Senator Obama did otherwise. When President Clinton nominated the very far left Ruth Bader Ginsberg, who has advocated lowering the age of consent to 12 (see: “Sex Bias in the U.S. Code”, p. 102 Feigen-Fasteau, B., and Bader Ginsburg, R. et al. http://tinyurl.com/5837es), integrating prisons and reformatories by sex (Ibid., p. 101), and other, very out-of-the-mainstream positions, John McCain voted to confirm her because she was qualified. He did so even though he very clearly and strongly disagreed with her ideology. So, why vote for her? McCain recognizes the right of a President to appointees of his choosing who are qualified by virtue of their education and demonstrated judicial temperament. McCain said, “It is part of the discipline of democracy to respect the roles and responsibilities of each branch of government, and, above all, to respect the verdicts of elections and judgment of the people.” He added, “... under our Constitution, it is the president’s call to make,”
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By contrast, Senator Obama voted against confirming John Roberts to the SCOTUS. Obama said (http://tinyurl.com/56gecf): “There is absolutely no doubt in my mind Judge Roberts is qualified to sit on the highest court in the land.” That is a very clear statement. In spite of that, however, Barack Obama voted against confirmation because of what he called Roberts’ “overarching political philosophy.” I think any intelligent, reasonable observer, even without considering the vast differences between the behavior of the two men when it has come to taking on the elites of their own parties, must reasonably conclude that McCain would be less ideological on abortion than Obama. We have their records to go by, as opposed to ill-informed, unintelligent posturing, let alone dishonest and tendentious speculation.


I think McCain will win because people on the right will vote their narrow interest and can't accept what is good to fix the fundamental problems in our country that that their leaders have created They will not be happy until they destroy every fiber that keeps a society together as America crashes and burns they will defend their failed policies and admit their mistakes only long enough to sucker you again


Ok so then after the NEW SUPREME Court overturns ROE VS.WADE it is only natural that the GOP will push for a Constitutional Amendment banning abortion,to outlaw abortion in California and other states.Isn't that what the GOP was pushing for concerning gay marriage?It's what is called a slippery slope.And what about the civil rights of women in Alabama and Mississippi?And what about the handgun bans in cities like D.C. and Chicago? Are you folks saying that the local ordinances should take precedence? Methinks not


It's amazing ! All these knuckleheads complaining about the smear attacks on Palin are the same people spewing lies about Obama, and distorting his views, record, reasoning,and religion!(The Hannity-Limbaugh syndrome) When I read a blog from someone who says that they decided not to vote for Obama because of the elite media(WHICH SMEARED KERRY)and their treatment of an unknown quantity(Palin), that was injected into this presidential race only 2 months before the election,I know what they are really saying is" hands off my candidate,while I continue to slander yours" The truth is'the GOP knows that with enough time,the real person will emerge warts and all,and they(GOP and base)want to run out the clock on this election,before some of these rumors are proven facts.When I read the crap that is blogged about Obama,whom would not be where he is today if he was any of the things the fearmongers try to define him as(which reeks of predjudice)and the vicious lies that were spread about Hilary that the minions continued to perpetuate,despite proven to be a product of the GOP double standard imagination,and compare it to what they are saying today,their hypocrisy stinks like a rotting moose carcass.Lets just work harder Obama Patriots-Vietnam Veterans agaist McCain


Obama should not strive to win this election and have to deal with the oncoming collapse of the American economy and reduction in value of the US dollar which very soon will achieve the same value as monopoly money, due to it being printed without a standard backing.

America’s 3.5 trillion $ in international debt will take several generations to repay if that’s ever possible, even with the termination of the Iraq adventure.

What America really needs now is for the ‘more of the same’ team to continue ruling, because whoever is in power will not survive a full term in office as they will be blamed & targeted for the severe depression that is soon to arrive.

The predicted total collapse of the US economy will result in such social anarchy that only a fool would desire to be in power & have to fix the problem and deal with the resulting rioting and possible civil war.

Whichever government the American people elects, will surely be one that it rightly deserves, if it foolishly replaces ‘dumb’ with ‘dumber’.

I do however feel so sorry for the middle classes who will be fatally hurt by losing everything they own to the corporation executives, who will survive no doubt by swiftly converting their assets into Euro and stashing it in Swiss Bank accounts.


Dick Cheney supports Palin as VP .... WOW !!!!! Big news there. I hope that Charles Gibson asks Palin what she intends to do if she becomes pregnsnt while she is Vice President.
Doesn't believe in contraception.
Doesn't promote abstinence.
Doesn't believe in abortion.
What will she do ?..... take a maternity leave ?


The poster, ‘lars siler,’ says those (he calls them “knuckleheads,” tellingly) who dislike smear attacks on Palin “are the same people spewing lies about Obama.” That is easily proved utterly false. Here is a site, http://www.factcheck.org/elections-2008/sliming_palin.html, that attacks smears it finds against anyone, though the link will take you to a debunking of recent rumors concerning Governor Palin. The folks there are human beings like the rest of us, and therefore imperfect, but they are a lot less partisan than ‘lars siler.’
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Governor Palin and Senator Obama are relative unknowns to many, but not to those who have been covering and reading about them for years. Read up on the differences between purported and actual facts. Read up on the actual differences between Senators McCain and Obama, and between Senator Biden and Governor Palin. Reject the politics of personal destruction. Reject all this disgraceful rumor-mongering. Can't we all rise above that?


Ron wrote that Governor Palin "Doesn't believe in contraception." How does he know that?
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If Michelle Obama becomes pregnant, what will Senator Obama do? Take a paternity leave? (What an astonishingly sexist post from Ron!)


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