By Jim Tankersley
Soccer moms and their husbands - the much-labeled, closely watched suburbanites who helped President Bush win re-election four years ago - are now serving up a national polling lead for Barack Obama in the days leading into the presidential election.
The new Hofstra National Suburban Poll, conducted for the National Center for Suburban Studies at Hofstra University in New York, shows a seismic suburban shift toward the Democratic nominee over the last month.
The poll, conducted Oct. 22 through 26, shows Obama leading Republican John McCain 47 percent to 39 percent among registered suburban voters. Among likely suburban voters, Obama leads 46 to 43, a statistical tie. In a similar Hofstra poll a month ago, McCain led 48 to 42 among registered suburbanites and 51 to 42 among likely voting suburbanites.
"The suburbs have long been thought of as a Republican bastion, in contrast to the Democratic strength in the nation's major cities," the polling report proclaims. "But the economic turmoil that has swept the nation has moved the suburbs out of the Republican column with only a week to go before the 2008 presidential election."
The report goes on to show that independent voters - those not affiliated with either party, and a crucial bloc in swing suburbs across the land - have moved from backing McCain by 8 points a month ago to backing Obama by 8 points now. Obama has also opened a 15-point lead among suburban voters who attended some college at least, a group McCain led by 6 points in September.
In the suburbs, Obama now leads among women, men and couples with children; he splits married couples evenly with McCain. Those are all key GOP targets. McCain leads among white suburbanites, but he's lost support among them: In September he was up 55 to 38 among suburban whites, with 7 percent undecided. Now he leads 47-38, with 15 percent undecided.
The polling report chalks that movement to the faltering economy: "In September, those with a positive view of their family finances supported McCain by a 55 to 37 percent margin, an 18-percentage-point advantage. But what a month of economic turmoil has done: now McCain's advantage among suburban voters with a positive view of their finances is only nine points: 49 percent to 38 percent.
"And among those who are most economically stressed, the movement is greater: A month ago, suburban voters with a negative view of their personal finances supported Obama by a 10-point margin, 50 percent to 40 percent. Now, among those with a negative view of their finances, Obama has opened up a 30-point margin (58%-28%)."
The poll also shows Obama and McCain neck and neck among rural voters (which McCain leads by three points) and Obama holding a 20-point lead among urban voters. McCain's strongest demographic, it appears, is rural men.
You can see the full polling report here."> And check out Ben Folds' masterpiece, Rockin' the Suburbs, here.
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Comments
BHO rockin' the house and workin' the crowd. He is a silver tongued devil.
Fool me once, BHO, shame on...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-_cYjKD8TI
Posted by: mittforprez | October 30, 2008 12:29 PM
I expect Obama to win by 353:185
http://blameislam.blogspot.com/2008/10/prediction-obama-to-win-353-delegates.html
Posted by: Ajaz | October 30, 2008 12:32 PM
Is Obama not a Manchurian Candidate? I still don't understand who this guy is. He has no Birth Certificate, at least not one he is willing to share with us. He won't release any of his records from his educational experience, the most substantive experience he has, and his whole thing last night was like a "get comfortable with me in the white house" propaganda piece.
It's like he has become a part of the American so called "branded" lexicon whereby it's not the product that matters but the marketing and the advertising.
Who is this guy? Where is he from? He's lived under three different names, he has not history- where are all of his Harvard, Columbia friends? Who knows this guy? The only people we know of are now Wright, Ayres and now Khaliki(?) and a guy named Rezko who we worked for in Chicago who got him started in politics who has connections to Syria and Iraqi terrorists and is a convicted federal prisoner.
What is going on in this country?
Posted by: Wait A Second | October 30, 2008 12:43 PM
The votes haven't been counted. I still have to early vote in IN & OH
Posted by: TonyR | October 30, 2008 12:44 PM
I see you all have not lost your fight :
GOOD! Because we have a lot to do. You! (the American people) are going to have to take back control of your elected government at every level, and set your government back on the right path of service to you, and the greater good of the World.
Barack Obama and the democrats are your best hope of doing that now. Tell your family, friends, and everyone you know to support them as best they can. Because the Bush McCain vote fraud, vote cheating, vote buying, vote manipulation machine is already hard at work to cheat you again. And we all know what a disaster that has been the past 8 years of Bush McCain.
Barack Obama and the democrats will need all the power you can give them at every level of government (Federal, State, County, and local City elected governments). Obama and the democrats will have an enormous mess to fix for the American people, and the rest of the World. A mess caused by the corrupt Bush McCain administration.
You see, starting back in 2000, and before 911, it was mostly the Republican governors, Republican legislatures, and county elected Republican officials that conspired with the corrupt Bush McCain administration to raise college, and university tuitions by the fastest, and highest rate increases in American history. Some state tuitions went up by as much as a WHOPPING! 30% in one year.
The reason the Bush McCain administration did this was to force struggling working class kids into the military to pay for the sudden jump in tuition. Which was forced on them by the corrupt Bush McCain administration, and their corrupt Republican Governors, and republican controlled state legislatures.
See, Bush McCain had plans to get us into all these immoral, foolish, criminal, and unnecessary wars from the start. So they could use these wars to seize power, and later to get reelected. But, for their evil plan to work they needed more volunteer soldiers struggling to pay for an education whose blood they could spill to help them seize more power. Remember Bush McCain's "MISSION ACCOMPLISHED!" theatrics.
The exploitation, and lost lives of these finest Americans is despicable, disgusting, immoral, corrupt and criminal. And it makes me SICK, and ANGRY!
You will have to vote for Obama, and the democrats in overwhelming numbers to overcome the Bush McCain vote fraud machine. Vote early if you can. Then help your fellow Americans cast their votes now, and on through election day. Vote for Obama, and the democrats like your life, and the lives of your loved ones depends on it. Because it does. You will not survive 4 more years of "Let Them Eat Cake" Bush McCain, and their republican allies.
Just look at the mess we have now.
You can fix this mess with your votes for Obama, and the democrats. And REMEMBER, no matter which of us may stumble or fall, the rest of you must continue to surge forward for Barack Obama, and the democrats, and for your-selves most of all. The children, and the World are counting on us.
It's in your hands now. And I know you will get it done.
God bless all of you.
JACK SMITH - WORKING CLASS... :-)
Posted by: jacksmith | October 30, 2008 1:01 PM
To "Wait A Second" (full-time paid Republican blogger)...
Your post is rife with lies, as always. Everyone knows that Obama's birth certificate is now online for all to view. Every CREDIBLE news outlet has verified it (including right-wing news hosts).
In addition, McCain is much more closely associated with Khalidi than is Obama. McCain secured over $500,000 in grants for him. And yes, spelling counts if you want to be taken seriously (although I realize the point is to make you look like an average "confused" Joe-The-Plumber voter). It's Khalidi. make a note.
"What's going on" is that your party has run the country into the ground, and people aren't going to take it anymore.
Have a nice day.
Posted by: Mia | October 30, 2008 1:02 PM
Although it makes financial sense for the median voter to vote for higher taxes on remaining working years and on younger people in order to secure his benefits, altuistic concern for the impact on younger people would have had a restraining effect on the suburbanite's propensity to vote for Obama. However, due to economic uncertainty, suburbanite selfishness is kicking in. Of course, younger people will already overwhelmingly vote for Obama on an emotional basis, not understanding (or caring) about the future economic impact on themselves.
Posted by: No Longer Retiring Anytime Soon | October 30, 2008 1:15 PM
Next Wednesday morning, you will see TV footage from Obama’s coronation event in Chicago’s Grant Park showing hysterical, weeping, cavorting, fighting, swearing Obama Kool-Aid kids who are angry and confused that The Marxist One and his merry band of America-haters, terrorists, racists and felons lost the election.
Beginning next week, when Americans talk about colossal failures they will mention the movies Ishtar and Heaven's Gate -- and they will mention Obama.
Obama is a bad, bad news for America
Posted by: Jenn Rogers | October 30, 2008 1:24 PM
Hey Jack Smith:
If this is what an Obama supporter is thinking, the country is in trouble. What kind of irrational, conspiratorial riff is this?
If you really think any politician, let alone a Democratic candidate from ILLINOIS will work for the citizens of this country, you have been living under a rock your whole life. If Obama wins, expect to see government the way it works in Illinois. Hands out and pockets open!
Posted by: Brian | October 30, 2008 1:28 PM
I haven't seen John McCain's birth certificate either, but I'm sure that's just because stone tablets don't transfer to digital very well.
Posted by: Adam | October 30, 2008 1:29 PM
What is going on in this country?
Posted by: Wait A Second | October 30, 2008 12:43 PM
My guess? The end of your divisive politics. People are fed up with the dividing of America into blue states, red states, liberal, conservative, gay, straight, pro-America, anti-America. Not only will that dog not hunt anymore, the dog has now turned against the owner. The party that claimed to be "great" Americans has shown to be the most unamerican. Bubba...your politics are dead....stick a fork in em!
Posted by: bill "Hussein" r. | October 30, 2008 1:31 PM
AP reports(?) and polls conducted by leftist academics cannot and will not fool the majority of intelligent Americans.
Jenn Rogers is right in her previous comment, except she forgot to mention all of the violence, unrest and thousands of arrests that will be televised to the world when the "chosen one" loses this election.
Yes we can...vote for a true American ticket.
McCain/Palin all the way in 2008!
Posted by: Rey Flores | October 30, 2008 1:36 PM
Has anyone noticed the McCain backers covering both ends with fear? Preying on fear if Obama wins...we are all doomed forever, start tying up loose ends.
If he loses, there will be riots like we have never seen before.
Either way, we are toast.
Enough, already. Americans are tired of hearing it. Intelligence and Hope trump Fear and Hate every time.
Posted by: justsayin | October 30, 2008 1:50 PM
Has anyone noticed the McCain backers covering both ends with fear? Preying on fear if Obama wins...we are all doomed forever, start tying up loose ends.
If he loses, there will be riots like we have never seen before.
Either way, we are toast.
Enough, already. Americans are tired of hearing it. Intelligence and Hope trump Fear and Hate every time.
Posted by: justsayin | October 30, 2008 1:58 PM
That Stone Tablet comment is a winner!
Posted by: Keith LSS | October 30, 2008 1:58 PM
Last night Barack Obama had a conversation with the American voters. Obama presented a message of hope for the future which resonates across the country... All that your hear from the other side is just negativity and lies..
Posted by: S.Orram | October 30, 2008 2:07 PM
Obama is buying his way to the Oval Office using money he would NOT have had IF he had been a man of his word. His marketing and media campaigns have been quite successful....and expensive. And he's been able to fund them because he did not keep his word on accepting public campaign dollars (and the corresponding limitatations) if McCain did the same.
McCain did keep his word and therefore is limited to using the budget Obama should have had, if he (Obama) had followed through on what he said.
If we couldn't trust Obama to keep his word on one of his first significant promises in this election, how can we trust anything he promises?
Posted by: Joanne | October 30, 2008 2:08 PM
The goal of Barack Obama is a social market economy under which business is highly regulated and allowed to create wealth to support a deep welfare system. The asset-rich, academics, and college students want social construction rather than economic competition. This is radical change. If we make this choice, it should be knowingly. I don't see much evidence of that knowledge.
Posted by: Suburbanite | October 30, 2008 4:05 PM