Bush: Republican liability? Dems say so

by Mark Silva

DEERFIELD BEACH, Fla. -- Barack Obama isn't the only one tagging his rival as "more of the same,'' attempting to connect John McCain with President Bush, sinking in the polls.

Democrats are taking the strategy down-ticket as well.

And here in South Florida, where Democrats are targeting two of the long-safest Republicans in Congress - the Diaz-Balart brothers of Miami - TV ads against both brothers are playing off their allegiance with Bush.

"Lincoln Diaz-Balart says he's a congressman,'' Democrat Raul Martinez's ad about the elder of the Cuban-American brothers states. "Actually he's a rubber stamp for George Bush.''

The ad cites the war and other issues on which the congressman has backed the president. It closes with a goofy photo of the president and says: "Diaz-Balart once said, 'I thank God for George Bush.' We need leaders, not rubber stamps.''

Never mind that Martinez, the former mayor of Hialeah twice-tried on charges of corruption and extortion, has a certain record of his own - he was convicted once, got it overturned and finally beat the charges in three rounds of trials. He "approved this ad.'' Says so at the end. He even got the Miami Herald's editorial endorsement.

The campaign against Mario Diaz-Balart, being waged by Joe Garcia, a Democrat with a stand-up record as a state utility regulator and activist in Cuban-American and Democratic politics, is drawing a page from the same anti-Bush book. One ad warns about the younger congressman: "Diaz-Balart consistently sided with George Bush and the failed economic policies.''

The two incumbents face tougher reelections this year than they are accustomed to - a measure of younger Cuban-American voters siding more with Democrats this year, according to Dario Moreno, a political scientist and pollster at Florida International University. He ran a poll in Mario Diaz-Balart's district recently, in conjunction with Univision, and found Diaz-Balart favored over Garcia by 45-37 percentage points, and suggests that when the undecided voters break it will end much closer than that.

And consider this: President Bush carried Diaz-Balart's district with 56 percent of the vote in 2004. But the party's 2008 nominee, McCain, drew only 46 percent in the recent poll.

The appeal that Obama is making to younger voters - who back the Democrat by a sizeable margin in Florida polling - is reaching young Cuban-American voters as well, Moreno says: "The Obama appeal to young people is working among young Cuban-Americans... Basically, it becomes hard for Republicans among anyone younger than 40.''

And just as Obama has attempted to tie his rival to an unpopular president, Democrats here are counting on the same connection. "It appears that the Diaz-Balart brothers will survive, but maybe by the skin of their teeth,'' Moreno concludes.