by Frank James
Everywhere you turn here in the nation's capital, there seems a growing consensus that congessional Democrats could gain more than 20 House seats and maybe, just maybe enough in the Senate to get to the magic 60 filibuster-proof votes which would allow Senate Democrats to run fairly untrammeled over Senate Republicans.
Of course, nothing is certain.
One fairly stunning observation from a CQ report (subscription required) today was this: House Democrats have put 73 of the Republicans' 199 current seats in play. Republicans will hold onto most of those seats but it gives an idea of how much territory Republicans have to defend this year:
Here are CQ's current scenario:
The Senate Scenario
Current Congress: 49 Democrats, 49 Republicans, 2 Independents
111th Projections: 54 Democrats, 40 Republicans, 2 Independents, 4 No Clear Favorite
The House Outlook
Current Congress: 235 Democrats, 199 Republicans, 1 Vacancy
111th Projections: 235 Democrats, 176 Republicans, 24 No Clear Favorite
And here's a lengthy excerpt from the CQ article:
...CQ Politics' Balance of Power scorecards for the Senate and the House show that the degree to which the Democrats will pad their current majorities in both chambers continues to be uncertain. That is because many of the contests are rated No Clear Favorite, meaning that they still appear too close to call.
The Senate scorecard shows the Democrats likely to have at least 56 seats after the election, based on CQ Politics' current ratings. That figure -- which includes independents Bernard Sanders of Vermont and Joseph I. Lieberman of Connecticut, who caucus with the Democrats for organizational purposes -- reflects five contests in which the Democrats are slightly to strongly favored to take over Republican-held seats: the open-seat races in Virginia, New Mexico and Colorado and the challenges to incumbents Ted Stevens of Alaska and John E. Sununu of New Hampshire.
If the Democrats are to meet or exceed their oft-stated goal of claiming 60 or more seats, for a so-called "filibuster-proof majority," they would have to win all five of those races, and either sweep the four races for Republican seats currently rated as No Clear Favorite, or pick off one or more of the three seats in the competitive races rated Leans Republican.
The most recent independent polls suggest a Democratic sweep is not an outlandish proposition, though...
... The House Balance of Power scorecard masks somewhat the Democrats' potential for big gains. With two weeks left to go, there are 235 races rated Leans Democratic (17), Democrat Favored (16) or Safe Democratic (202), which actually is one seat fewer than the party currently holds. But the Republicans currently are slightly to strongly favored for just 176 seats -- 23 fewer than they now have -- with 25 rated Leans Republican, 25 rated Republican Favored and 126 rated Safe Republican.
This past week brought one of the few clear gains this fall for the Republicans. The rating on the race in Florida's 16th District, where freshman Democrat Tim Mahoney is the incumbent, was changed from No Clear Favorite to Leans Republican, making it the only Democratic seat currently deemed likely to fall to the Republicans. Mahoney, who won the seat in 2006 largely because of the scandal involving resigned Republican Rep. Mark Foley's inappropriate advances on underage male pages, was hit with a sex scandal of his own, admitting to multiple extramarital relationships, including one with a woman staffer whom he paid a large sum of money to avoid a sexual harassment lawsuit.
Yet this race is offset by six in which Democratic candidates are currently favored to win Republican-held seats.
The underlying numbers show how the Democrats have the potential to make another double-digit gain on top of the 30 House seats the party picked up in the 2006 elections and the additional three captured in special elections earlier this year.
• Of the 24 contests currently rated No Clear Favorite, 18 are for seats now held by Republicans while only six are for Democratic-held seats.
• Another 24 competitive Democratic upset bids for Republican seats are in the Leans Republican category, while the GOP is chasing only 13 Democratic seats rated Leans Democratic.
• Among long-shot upset bids, there are 25 for Republican seats rated Republican Favored and 14 for Democratic seats rated Democrat Favored.
Totaled up, the Democrats have put 73 Republican seats in play, while Republicans are staging serious challenges for only 34 Democratic seats -- an imbalanced ratio of more than 2-to-1.
Comments
Lets hope not -
We need more Socialism like a hole in our head-
WAKE UP AMERICA
Posted by: LOAM | October 21, 2008 8:29 PM
The Democrats deserve to score big. They have been saddled with a one vote majority, in the Senate and an opposition Party that would rather champion the Republican agenda, than do what is right for America !! They should have the opportunity to serve America and show her, what we, the Democrats, are capable of doing for America. There will not be any deceit for any wars, there will be a more responsive government to our needs and, above all, there will be a fairer America, for all Americans, not just for the wealthy and the Corporations !! One last item, but certainly, not the least, the Democrats will respect the right to privacy, that all women are entitled to, according to our Constitution !! You know, that document that has been lost for the last 8 years !! It will be honored again, if we, the Democrats, are given the honor to govern for the next four years !!
SUPPORT OUR TROOPS, BRING THEM HOME, ALIVE AND WHOLE. NOW.
Posted by: Don Fitzgerald, Chicago | October 21, 2008 11:46 PM