by Frank James
Defense Secretary Robert Gates spoke at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington today of, among other things, the need for the U.S. to modernize its nuclear weapons capability. I'll deal with what he said on that score in another post.
But I was struck by part of an answer he gave about Iraq during the Q&A session following his speech. A questioner asked him what further steps should be taken to deter Iran from developing a nuclear weapon.
Gates essentially said Europe could and should do more to isolate Iran. Then he related a fascinating story about something he personally experienced three decades ago involving Iranian officials:
I will tell you, you know, there has been a lot of conversation about this. I have spent 30 years in the search for the elusive Iranian moderate. When Jessica (Matthews, now president of the Carnegie Endowment) and I were working together under Dr. Brzezinski -- I was with Zbig when he was at the 25th anniversary of the Algerian revolution. And we got word that the Iranian leadership wanted to meet with him. This was October 1979. And Zbig got permission to do this. So we met with the prime minister, defense minister and foreign minister of the new Iranian revolutionary government. I think it was the first senior-level meeting with the Iranian leadership since the revolution.
And Brzezinski laid it all out. He said we will sell you the weapons that we had contracted to sell the shah. We will recognize your revolution. We will work with you because we have a common enemy to your north, the Soviet Union. And he laid it all out in strategic terms for them. They said give us the shah. It went back and forth like that for about two hours. And finally, Brzezinski got up, turned to them and said to give you the shah would be a violation of our national honor. That ended the meeting. Three days later, they seized the embassy. And two weeks later, all three of those guys were out of power. Thus began the American attempt to reach out to the revolutionary regime in Iran.
And the truth of the matter is every American administration since then has tried to reach out, sometimes with catastrophic consequences if you remember the Reagan administration.
It was a cautionary tale. I assume Gates has already told either man vying for the White House this story or will. Gates, who served as Central Intelligence Agency director during the first Bush Administration, clearly had a simple message. Don't kid yourself; when you deal with those Iranians who are calling the shots, you're dealing with the hardliners. The moderates don't matter if they even exist in the Iranian government to begin with.
Comments
It is not about reaching out to Iranian "moderates", it is about both countries trying to get to the middle a little bit. Whether we like it or not, Iran can help the US and the Middle East lower tensions. Yes, they have their proxies in Hezbollah and the Martyrs Brigade, but they are not exactly wild seeing a resurging Taliban.
Both sides need to cut down the rhetoric, for the Iranians, stop the destroy Israeli talk, for the Americans, ignoring that Iran has a huge role in Iraq. I think there was a window in 2001 after 9/11, but the Bush Administration decided to ignore it.
Posted by: Ted | October 28, 2008 6:25 PM
Well, I could not say much. It is just sad that these things are going on.
Remember:
you can't talk peace and have a gun-Francis M.
Posted by: Johnny Coates | October 28, 2008 8:10 PM
All Iranian moderates and liberals, and particularly the intelligentsia, are asylees in Sweden, Canada, US, etc.
As Gates must know from his days as CIA Director.
Posted by: ornery | October 28, 2008 9:33 PM
Here we go again team Republican....In August we were led to believe it was the Russians fault for invading Georgia because...Russia are the "bad guys" and this was after other Nato countries were not so convinced it was Russias fault.
On the BBC News website tonight, there is evidence where Georgia may have committed "WAR CRIMES" that caused the whole problem.
McCain would've attacked Russia just like he wants to do to Iran.
Posted by: Terry | October 28, 2008 10:58 PM
If Iranian moderates are scarce, that's something we can lay at the feet of the Bush Administration.
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In 2003, "shocked and awed" by the U.S. invasion of Iraq, Iran's President Khatami made overtures to our government to sit down and discuss how the two countries might work together. Khatami was willing to put Iran's nuclear program on the table and was willing to discuss their acting in cooperation with us to stabilize that area of the Mideast. Bush refused to consider such talks because of Iran's place in the "Axis of Evil."
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Because of this, Khatami (a moderate influence) lost support in Iran and was replaced as President by one Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, decidedly NOT a moderate influence). Iran, rebuffed by Bush, now figured (rightly or not?) that invasion by the U.S. was not a matter of "if" but "when," and if they were going to be invaded no matter what, then they lost nothing by having nuclear weapons and possibly could gain some time for themselves.
Posted by: Op109 | October 29, 2008 11:31 AM