by Mark Silva
(The well-financed) Barack Obama is giving John McCain a run for his (public) money in several traditionally "red'' states, according to new CNN/Opinion Research surveys:
In Nevada: Obama favored by 51 perecent of likely voters, McCain 46, in a survey taken Sunday through Tuesday. That's a little wider than a four-point spread found at the end of September.
In North Carolina, Obama 51, McCain 47 among likely voters in the new survey. They were dead even in an early October survey.
In Ohio, Obama 50, McCain 46 among the likely voters, roughly the same spread found in early October.
In Virginia, Obama 54, McCain 44, in a state that hasn't gone Democratic since the 1960s. That's pretty much the same spread that was found in late September.
The margins of error in the Oct. 19-21 surveys range from 3.5 to 4 percent, meaning its close to a statistical tie in Nevada, North Carolina and Ohio, with Obama holding a significant edge in the Old Dominion.
Comments
Obama has won and is planning his party, what difference does it make?
Posted by: John | October 22, 2008 6:07 PM
Wow...well financed is right, including millions from unidentified donors! Wonder which lucky leaders get to divy up Obama's $845 Billion UN global poverty act that should raise our taxes and empty our coffers
Posted by: Margaret | October 23, 2008 2:04 AM
I am concerned about this 'likely' category. I think that surveying those who voted in the last election is hardly inclusive of everyone who is out there ready to vote this year, including new voters.
I think the margin are a lot larger. It is like that "AP" poll of today which has been called suspect by those in the know. They are including 44 percent of Evangelicals who are likely to vote Republican.
Posted by: mgrfin | October 23, 2008 4:28 AM
Here’s my problem. The poll is interesting because it gives an update on some important states in the election but it doesn’t explain how the poll was conducted. The blog should have provided it. News organizations have a responsibility to supply that information to readers because people need to know about the way the poll was put together and the accuracy of the poll. In some cases, people’s attitudes about the election and the candidates are shaped by the polls that they see.
The poll does not indicate how many people were interviewed for the sample. That is one of the most important aspects of the poll. The blog entry does indicate that that the poll was conducted by CNN and Opinion Research which is certainly important, but other information is missing. The blog doesn’t explain how the pollsters determined likely voters.
You could make the argument that because it’s a blog they don’t need to provide the information because it is a more informal setting. I think it is more important because more people are turning to blogs to get their information. This blog posted more information in an earlier blog entry about the trends in polls over a three-day period. That’s why I found it odd that nothing was posted here.
I think transparency is important because the campaigns and the media are citing polls left and right especially now as we enter the stretch run of the election. Media outlets have been using polls to show the trends and also to predict the outcome of the election. People need to understand how the polls are created and how it all works
Posted by: Stephen | October 24, 2008 12:26 PM