by Mark Silva
Barack Obama has gained some daunting campaign-closing advantages in two big battleground states - Florida and Ohio - according to the results of a new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg News poll.
Obama holds a 50-43-percentage point advantage over Republican John McCain in Florida, the poll finds -- in a state that has only sparingly voted for Democrats since the 1960s, and then only Southern Democrats.
And Obama holds a 49-40-point advantage over McCain in Ohio among likely voters surveyed -- in a state that has voted the way the nation has voted most times and always been part of a Republican's winning formula.
Tom Slade, a former chairman of the Republican Party of Florida, credits Obama's advantage there to a tide of resentment with the way Republicans have been running things and to Obama's own extraordinary campaign organization in the state.
"The Obama campaign is running just the best presidential campaign I've ever seen,'' Slade told the Swamp today. "It's going to take something short of a miracle to overcome the basic odds... I have never seen so many angry people in my life. They are just double-barrel pissed-off.''
In both states, the Democrat "has opened commanding leads over McCain among women, young people, first-time voters and blacks and other minorities,'' the L.A. Times/Bloomberg poll finds.
The poll focused on Ohio and Florida "because they are vote-rich states that have been closely contested and could decide the outcome of the presidential race,'' the Times' Janet Hook writes. "The two also were pivotal to the outcome of the last two presidential contests: Florida, with its dramatic recount in 2000, was key to President Bush's election; in his 2004 reelection, Ohio put him over the top with a slim 51%-to-49% victory.
"Gloom about the economy is pervasive in Ohio,'' Hook notes. "Among registered voters, some 90% say the economy is doing badly, and that affects how they size up the candidates. Fully one-half of Ohio registered voters said that domestic issues such as the economy were most important in their choice of presidential candidate. Only 16% cited national security issues, McCain's strong suit. Ohio voters trust Obama more than McCain to make the right decisions about the economy, 50% to 38%.
The survey was conducted under the supervision of Times Poll Director Susan Pinkus from Oct. 25-27. In Florida, 809 registered voters were interviewed, including 639 deemed likely to vote. In Ohio, 816 registered voters were interviewed, including 644 likely voters. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus 3 percentage points for registered voters, plus or minus 4 points for likely voters.
Comments
Anotehr Silva two-step. He's been reporting on the Gallup Poll all week, but since today's Gallup numbers show Obama slipping, Silva switches to another poll more favorable to his man Barack.
The Swamp simply isn't worth taking seriously.
No wonder the latest Pew Poll (another poll The Swamp has suddenly censored mention of) shows the American public, virtually unanimously, believes that reporters are in the tank for Obama.
Posted by: Disgusted | October 28, 2008 5:50 PM
Well, Disgusted, the Pew Poll taken 10/23 through 10/26 also showed voters intending to vote for Obama over McCain 53% to 38%.
Not much good news for your candidate no matter where you look in this country.
Posted by: Ellen | October 28, 2008 6:22 PM
Speaking of Pew, did you see their daily tracking poll that had Obama with a 14 point lead? http://www.pollster.com/blogs/us_obama_52_mccain_38_pew10232.php Stay updated before you post.
Posted by: Straight Talker | October 28, 2008 6:24 PM
Gee, looks like in the final week before Obama is reelected, the press is performing some introspection, and they are admitting what Fox News has reported for 21 months. The media are in the tank for Obama.
Here's a dude at the NY Times confessional and apology:
http://abcnews.go.com/print?id=6099188
Here's another at the Boston Herald:
http://www.bostonherald.com/news/opinion/letters/view/2008_10_28_Election_2008:_Objective_journalism_the_loser/
one more
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/09/the_man_who_never_was.html
Posted by: Fritz | October 28, 2008 6:25 PM
Funny digusted, sounds like you're the one trying to cherry pick polls. The gallup poll is a nationwide poll, and at this point, nationwide polls are fairly useless to the electoral map. This poll refers to Florida and Ohio specifically. Oh, and if you'd like to go back to that Pew Poll, they also did a nationwide poll showing Obama opening up a 15 point lead there. Hmmm...
Posted by: Stephen | October 28, 2008 6:27 PM
Disgusted, if the Swamp "isn't worth taking seriously" why don't you run over to Fox News. I guarantee you they'll report in a way you'll find more acceptable.
Posted by: chuck in chicago | October 28, 2008 6:31 PM
Funny that Disgusted mentions Pew, who just gave Obama a crushing 53-38 lead. And while the individual trackers bounce up and down, every one of them shows Obama ahead. It's abundantly clear that Obama will win the election. It's a question now of whether he merely wins, or wins in a landslide.
Posted by: Ben | October 28, 2008 6:36 PM
@disgusted. if you want to see the big picture go to fivethirtyeight.com or pollster.com and you can see ALL the polls.
---
I'd like to take a moment to talk about voter suppression, especially in Florida.
Republicans are up to their sneaky tricks again.
This time, they have cut operating hours for early voting, and they have reduced the number of machines to only 2 per voting facility.
That way, hundreds of people are waiting in line braving the elements, for hours and hours.
Randi Rhodes, radio personality, wasn't even able to vote. she tried two days in a row.
It's an interesting contrast to NY State, where I haven't seen any signs of voter suppression... Do you know what the ny law says, if lines are getting too long, and the machines break down and voters want to vote?
I was a poll worker, so here's what I was taught:
Workers are always in groups of 2 or 4. half from the democrats, and half from the republicans, so we can keep an eye on each other.
In ny, it is valid to make up a ballot by xeroxing a paper ballot, and having people fill those out, then fold them and put them into sealed #10 envelopes. once sealed, they sign the envelope and put their name and address on that.
the envelopes are verified by pairs of workers from different parties, then after that process is complete, all ballots are removed and separated from their envelopes, so as to remain anonymous.
there are no more than 300-600 people in any given precinct, and usually those are split up into smaller groups, so that for every 150 or so voters, there is a machine and 4 workers for the day.
If there is no access to a xerox machine, then we are allowed to use BLANK LETTER SIZED SHEETS OF PAPER as ballots... 100 people at a time, technically, could be filling out ballots, so everything would run smoothly no matter what happened. I'm sure that we have the law about using paper for ballots because of some kind of sneaky disaster that happened many decades ago in NY.
The counting is done by hand in public view by the poll workers, and usually takes under 15 minutes. Those numbers are reported to the media and to the election hq. It would be very difficult to mess with these numbers in NY.
The point i'm making here is... just look at florida... there's a state that is pretty much 50% dems and 50% reps yet there has been so much gerrymandering that the state assembly is composed of 75% republicans. its disgusting.
The fact that they legislated to reduce the number of voting machines, as well as to reduce the hours just goes to show they are willing to do anything to steal this election.
Personally, i think there should be severe criminal penalties for legislators who have caused this kind of voter disenfranchisement.
Posted by: Dave Kliman | October 28, 2008 6:49 PM
Hard to know which polls are accurate. Still, given the miserable record of our idiotic President Bush and his slimey sidekick Cheney, it should be an easy win for Obama.
Posted by: KAG | October 28, 2008 7:16 PM
Polls are worthless. The only thing they are good for is making headline. If you really want an acurate prediction of who will win the election go to the Iowa Electronic Markets. Currently 85% of people who are willing to risk money on the issue are picking Obama, and unlike "polls" the IEM has never been wrong.
Posted by: Charles | October 28, 2008 7:24 PM
Funny how RNC Bruce had to change his name to hide.. sounds very Republican to me. And Bruce if you are so unhappy with the Swamp just go away with the rest of your losing party ok!!
Posted by: Scot S. Blakeley | October 28, 2008 7:29 PM
@charles,
Nate silver already did a data analysis of those betting markets, and basically you can see easily, if you chart the data, that they just follow the polling sites, with a delay of a few hours.
so much for that idea.
Posted by: Dave Kliman | October 28, 2008 7:44 PM
Funny, Gallup just came out with a 49/47 Obama/McCain poll, this election will turn out exactly like 2004
Posted by: Steve | October 28, 2008 8:29 PM
Maybe Choicepoint can again come to the rescue for Florida Republicans.
Posted by: RomanB | October 28, 2008 8:39 PM
Scott- Bruce, Jeff and John D. have all gone underground. Only recently unemployed Terry has kept his real name to remind us how sterling his economic credentials are. Trickle Terry doesn't like us to bring up that he was cheerleading Bush's economic policies for the past 18 months, though.
Posted by: dt | October 28, 2008 8:42 PM
I see you all have not lost your fight :
GOOD! Because we have a lot to do. You! (the American people) are going to have to take back control of your elected government at every level, and set your government back on the right path of service to you, and the greater good of the World.
Barack Obama and the democrats are your best hope of doing that now. Tell your family, friends, and everyone you know to support them as best they can. Because the Bush McCain vote fraud, vote cheating, vote buying, vote manipulation machine is already hard at work to cheat you again. And we all know what a disaster that has been the past 8 years of Bush McCain.
Barack Obama and the democrats will need all the power you can give them at every level of government (Federal, State, County, and local City elected governments). Obama and the democrats will have an enormous mess to fix for the American people, and the rest of the World. A mess caused by the corrupt Bush McCain administration.
You see, starting back in 2000, and before 911, it was mostly the Republican governors, Republican legislatures, and county elected Republican officials that conspired with the corrupt Bush McCain administration to raise college, and university tuitions by the fastest, and highest rate increases in American history. Some state tuitions went up by as much as a WHOPPING! 30% in one year.
The reason the Bush McCain administration did this was to force struggling working class kids into the military to pay for the sudden jump in tuition. Which was forced on them by the corrupt Bush McCain administration, and their corrupt Republican Governors, and republican controlled state legislatures.
See, Bush McCain had plans to get us into all these immoral, foolish, criminal, and unnecessary wars from the start. So they could use these wars to seize power, and later to get reelected. But, for their evil plan to work they needed more volunteer soldiers struggling to pay for an education whose blood they could spill to help them seize more power. Remember Bush McCain's "MISSION ACCOMPLISHED!" theatrics.
The exploitation, and lost lives of these finest Americans is despicable, disgusting, immoral, corrupt and criminal. And it makes me SICK, and ANGRY!
You will have to vote for Obama, and the democrats in overwhelming numbers to overcome the Bush McCain vote fraud machine. Vote early if you can. Then help your fellow Americans cast their votes now, and on through election day. Vote for Obama, and the democrats like your life, and the lives of your loved ones depends on it. Because it does. You will not survive 4 more years of "Let Them Eat Cake" Bush McCain, and their republican allies.
Just look at the mess we have now.
You can fix this mess with your votes for Obama, and the democrats. And REMEMBER, no matter which of us may stumble or fall, the rest of you must continue to surge forward for Barack Obama, and the democrats, and for your-selves most of all. The children, and the World are counting on us.
It's in your hands now. And I know you will get it done.
God bless all of you.
JACK SMITH - WORKING CLASS... :-)
Posted by: jacksmith | October 28, 2008 9:17 PM
If you don't want McSame and Anne Coulter Lite running the country (or ruining it) for the next 4 years - and even if you do, please go out and vote next wek
Posted by: John Smith | October 28, 2008 10:30 PM
dt,
It's all the fault of Barney Frank and Chris Dodd.
I haven't been around much either but where did Yoders and Dyslin go?
They've left Jerry White and Trickle Down to continue the comedy routine.
Posted by: Bubba | October 28, 2008 10:39 PM
FoxNews leans to the Right and ALL of the other networks lean to the Left. You need to watch both to get the full stories, even if it hurts to do so.
Clinton promised not to raise taxes on the middle class and then did so in a very big way within 6 months in office, 'disappointed' that he needed to do so. Obama has a far larger spending plan (even before considering healthcare) so guess what's going to happen.
Anyone who has or aspires to have any modicum of success who votes Obama either wants to get shafted or is one of the "Useful Idiots"(Google it).
Obama really is at heart a Socialist, people.Many of his fans are in denial about this even as undeniable evidence of it slowly oozes out (despite non-Fox networks relentless and unethical efforts to cork it).
WAKE UP, PEOPLE. THINK.
Posted by: RealityBytes | October 28, 2008 10:49 PM
you people should argue about the issues, not argue about the polls. Make your arguments, vote for your choice, and then find out next Tuesday.
Posted by: enough already | October 28, 2008 10:50 PM
This "poll" coming from the radical leftist LA Times whom are refusing to release a video they have of Obama lauding & toasting radical PLO adviser Rashid Khalidi -
Journalism is dead.
Save America & say NObama!
Posted by: Rey Flores | October 28, 2008 11:39 PM
The real poll is the one on November 4th. Democrats: don't start your victory dance now as you might have eggs on your face on November 5th.
Posted by: Ryan | October 29, 2008 1:55 AM
I tell u one thing i am voting nothing but democrat so watch it cause it might be a possible for the 60 seat all dems. i hope we get it cause these republicans are a bunch of frauds
Posted by: andy | October 29, 2008 3:22 AM
andy,
Yes, and we need that 60 so we can begin to fix the judicial system. After all those Reagan/Bush/Bush years the appeals courts are stacked with activist Con. judges.
Obama will also be able to save the Supreme Court from the same bunch.
Posted by: C.Morris | October 29, 2008 8:42 AM
http://www.thenation.com/images/media/doc/27c/1221155624-large.jpg
Just ahead of McCain and shaking hands with Follieri appears to be Rick Davis--McCain's top aide and now co-manager of his campaign, who accompanied him on the trip and advised the government of Montenegro. A few months after McCain's yacht party, Follieri strengthened his ties to McCain's orbit by retaining Rick Davis's well-connected Washington lobbying firm, Davis Manafort, and offering Davis both an investment deal and help in securing the Catholic vote for McCain's presidential bid. Follieri, who posed as Vatican chief financial officer in order to win friends and investments, pleaded guilty Wednesday in a Manhattan district court to conspiracy to commit wire fraud, eight counts of wire fraud and five counts of money laundering. As part of the plea, Follieri admitted to misappropriating at least $2.4 million of investor money and redirecting it to foreign personal bank accounts that were disguised as business accounts.
The photograph substantiates reports that in late August, 2006, McCain celebrated his 70th birthday aboard a yacht, the Celine Ashley, rented by A-list con man Raffaello Follieri and his then-movie star girlfriend Anne Hathaway.
In the photograph, taken in Montenegro at the end of August, McCain is shown boarding the yacht ramp towards the smiling Follieri and Hathaway.
Posted by: McMoney | November 1, 2008 3:04 AM
Obama will the president if he wins the electoral votes of but any one of the of the six states in which he holds a 7 to 2 point lead in the polls: Nevada (up +7), Colorado (up +7), Virginia (up +7), Ohio (up +6), North Carolina (up +4), or Florida. (up +2).
Obama’s win would be outright with a win of any one of these states other than Nevada. It he only wins Nevada, and McCain wins all of the other five, there would be a 269 to 269 tie, and the Democratic controlled House of Representatives would select Obama as president and the Senate would select Biden as vice president.
But Obama may well win all six states and more---red state of Iowa seems to be showing a reverse Bradley effect and so may other states. As today’s Des Moines Sunday Register reports, Obama’s lead in Iowa has now grown to 17 points, and this has also been happening in other states.
Posted by: Sam Osborne | November 2, 2008 11:11 AM