by Mark Silva
Barack Obama is getting a boost from Hispanic voters in early voting in South Florida, according to exit-polling that shows strong margins for the Democratic candidate among traditionally Republican voters.
If margins such as these hold true on Election Day in the Miami area, Obama could have a strong claim to Florida's 27 electoral votes.
The exit polling of 8,683 voters leaving most of the county's early-voting sites between Oct. 20-29 was sponsored by the political science class of Associate Professor Mike Abrams at the University of Miami and financed by Bendixen & Associates, a long-established polling firm working as a consultant to the Obama campaign.
The ability of any Democrat to claim a sizeable share of the Hispanic vote in South Florida is part of any winning formula there. The exit polling found winning numbers:
-- 60 percent of those voting early were Hispanic, in a county with a 55-percent Hispanic electorate.
-- Among all Hispanics voting, Obama was favored by 47 percent, McCain 53.
-- Among Cuban-born Hispanics, McCain 69 percent, Obama 31.
-- Among U.S.-born Hispanics, Obama 72 percent, McCain 28.
-- Among white, Anglo voters, Obama 64 percent, McCain 36.
-- Among African-American voters, Obama 98 percent.
Comments
Fascinating. As Latinos know, we are a diverse group with a myriad of political leanings depending on our roots (Cuba, Mexico, El Salvador, etc.), whether we're immigrants or born in the U.S., religion, urban, rural, etc. It appears that the Latino voters in the west (New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada) may be flipping these red states into the blue column. In an analysis by the Los Angeles Times last week, if we remove Latinos from the polling for these three states, McCain wins. When they're put back in, Obama has a comfortable lead. Florida will be a truly interesting state to watch.
Posted by: Daniel Olivas | October 31, 2008 6:46 PM
The difference in the voting pattern of Cuban-born and U.S.-born Hispanics in Florida is startling. And, I believe, much wider than four years ago.
Posted by: jlp | October 31, 2008 8:07 PM
Could it be that more Cuban-born Hispanics prefer McCain because they already know what it's like to live in a socialist state?
I'm confused by this statistic "-- Among all Hispanics voting, Obama was favored by 47 percent, McCain 53." How can Obama be favored when the majority support McCain?
Posted by: OldSarg | November 1, 2008 10:59 AM
I'm Cuban-American, born in the US (Miami)... I voted for Obama, yet my best friend (also Cuban-American) voted for McCain... that said, I think there is a lot of discontent within the Cuban-American community with the Republican party.
OldSarg... Cuba is a Communist state, not a socialist state. But I'd really like to know what kind of state you think we are (you know with the $700 bln bank bailout, and the seizures of Freddie and Fannie, and AIG). Repubs, have nothing to offer us, and the neocons who are in control of the party are sick demented people who have absolutely no respect for the values this country was founded on, something Cuban-Americans, because of their history, have a deep respect for. Unfortunately some of them are so loyal to the Republican party they refuse to understand what our current Republican administration has been up to for the last eight years. Hopefully, anyways, things will begin to change. I'm praying for it.
Posted by: bluesun | November 2, 2008 9:30 PM
I am Cuban American veteran who voted for Obama.
I left the GOP .
I hope the other Hispanic groups in Miami finally begin to vote and end the strangle hold that Cuban Reps have had on Miami.
Knock these destroyers of the enviroment and useless politicians out of office before Miami is controlled by the rich and average person means nothing (actually to late) and every piece of wild land has cement poured on it.
Posted by: Luis | May 24, 2009 7:33 PM