Partisan pollsters disagree on WH race: The Swamp
The Swamp
Chicago Tribune
Posted October 30, 2008 4:56 PM
The Swamp

by Frank James

There's been a good back and forth this week between Democratic and Republican pollsters.

Stan Greenberg of Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner, a Democratic pollster, sent out his own analysis of the presidential race this afternoon, to counter one distributed earlier in the week by Bill McInturff, official pollster for Sen. John McCain's campaign.

McInturff said he saw a number of indicators pointing to the race tightening significantly and being "functionally tied across the battleground states."

Greenberg disagreed. "The structure of this race just has not changed as we have moved to the finish line," he said in his response to McInturff, meaning that the Democratic pollster sees Sen. Barack Obama still leading by a significant margin in the swing states.

Both letters are worth reading although most people will probably agree with the pollster whose view reflects their own.


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Comments

David Broder is correct about three points that may be sinking in with parts of the electorate as they force themselves to reach closure:

McCain allowed Obama and the Democrats to convince voters of the falsehood that electing McCain would in effect reward Bush with a third term.

Obama took no heat for turning down McCain's generous and important suggestion that the major-party candidates stump the country together, conducting weekly joint town hall meetings (or for reneging on his commitment to comply with public campaign finance restrictions).

McCain has proven he is ready to practice the kind of post-partisan politics the country wants -- and Obama has not.


It Ain't Over Yet, you're kidding, aren't you. The public has decided that McSame has nothing to offer but slander, slurs and fear. He has yet to offer any substantial ideas on the stump, but tries to vilify Obama at every occasion. There was no formal agreement on either town hall meetings nor public finance. McBush couldn't raise a dime from Repubs when he was pleading with Obama to accept public financing all the while Obama was raking it in from small contributors. Only a moron would have accepted McInsane's proposal. Both Johnny Rotten and Bible Spice have run a devisive campaign that has turned off the American public has only energized the lunatic base of the party. For you to say he's the only one who can have a post-partisan positive effect is not only crazy, but proves beyond a shadow of a doubt that you've been living in a cave for two months..


Neal,

I don't think you touched any of Broder's three arguments:
Calling McCain funny names is meaningless.
Obama's refusal to agree to town meetings is the point; not that he didn't do what he didn't agree to do.
Obama's public campaign finance commitment is too well-known to dispute, but I don't dispute that it was the money rolling in that caused him to renege on it.
It's post-partisan politics; not "positive effect."


Is that all the Bush-McCain Republicans have are bogus issues ?? Town Hall meetings, public financing are distractions, these clowns want the electorate to waste their time with issues that have no bearing on the welfare of our nation. Let's talk about the union-busting that is going on, by way of bankruptcies, or our heroic men and women, in our Armed Forces, fighting an unnecessary and an unwanted war, except for the Corporations and the Bush Republicans !! Those are a few of the real issues that should be being discussed, instead of Governor Palin's Nieman-Marcus wardrobe, or Senator McCain's 12 homes and a private jet.
Let's get back on track and have a real discussion on the issues !! If we did, there isn't any doubt in my mind, who will win this election, hands down !! Senators Obama and Biden !! Neither of them have been investigated for official misconduct, as the Republic ticket has been !! We don't want questionable politicians in our White House, like the last pair !!!
SUPPORT OUR TROOPS, BRING THEM HOME, ALIVE AND WHOLE. NOW.


It Ain't Over Yet,
It's not a falsehood to link McCain to Bush. He's voted with Bush 90 percent of the time and nothing he's offered deviates from the Bush agenda. In fact, it could be argued that McCain has backtracked from disagreeing with Bush (tax cuts shouldn't be made permanent) to falling lock step with Bush (tax cuts should now be made permanent). Generous town hall meetings were, prior to the debates, thought to be McCain's strong suit. Again, Obama should not have to agree to play into McCain's hand. Yet, when the only debate that was a town hall format occured, it was probably McCain's most dismal outing. The public finance agreement, was never written in stone. Obama agreed to discuss the issue at a later date and again, outsmarted McCain by not accepting public financing. Lastly, just when and where during the last few months has McCain demonstrated any ability to accomplish the post-partisan politics you describe. It has been Obama who has shown a steady hand, and even demeanor. It's been the McCain camp who have adopted the Rovian kitchen sink attacks that have so divided this nation during the last 8 years.


Neal,

Thanks for the responsive reply. You have convinced me on each of Broder's arguments.


"He's voted with Bush 90 percent of the time"
Don't forget McCain has missed the most votes out of anyone in the Senate...where was he for all those other votes?


Why doesn't anyone ever call McCain out on the fact the he broke his pledge to take part in the public ginancing program in the Republican primaries AFTER he had already enrolled in the program? McCain is being a complete and utter hypocrite in attacking Obama on that issue, yet no one calls him on it. Obama would have had to been a foll to believe that McCain's public financing pledge meant anything after McCain dishonored that very pledge earlier this year.


It is over. If you give each of the candidates the delegates only for the states where they have a 20 point lead, Obama is only short 99. McCain would have to take ohio, pennsylvania, NC, and Georgia. Obama only needs 1 of those states to get to 270.


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