Chart from a report released Wednesday by the Center for the Study of the American Electorate, showing the voter turnout in states that hold a primary for all of its races on one day, as opposed to those with a presidential primary and another for local races.
by Laura Olson
With five weeks to go, he's betting on somewhere between 125 and 130 million. And he reserves the right to change his mind.
That's where Curtis Gans, director of American University's Center for the Study of the American Electorate (CSAE), puts his estimate for the November election turnout, according to a report released Wednesday from the center.
Gans, an expert on voter turnout, analyzed this year's primary figures, and found that participation rose to its second-highest level ever, or a half percentage point less than turnout in 1972.
However, in states that held congressional and gubernatorial primaries on a day other than that of their presidential primary, participation dropped to a record low.
Overall turnout for this year's primaries was 57,348,121 voters, or 30.3 percent of the electorate, according to the report.
In the 11 primaries that included Senate and governor races with the presidential race, turnout reached 26.5 percent, the highest since 29 percent in 1972. In 21 others that held primaries for local races separate from their presidential primary, only about 14 percent of those eligible came out
"Primaries tend to draw the active and interested of each major party," Gans said. "As such, turnout in presidential primaries tends to be about half or fewer of the percentage which votes in the general election."
So will the general election turnout reach the historic volume that has been foreshadowed?
Unlikely, says Gans.
1960's turnout -- 67 percent of eligible voters -- is the figure to beat, and would require nearly 140 million Americans to cast a ballot, he says in the report. To put that in perspective, 122 million people headed to the polls, meaning that turnout would have to increase by 18 million voters to break the record.
A turnout of 125 to 130 million would be a difference of about one percent from 2004's 60.9 percent.
But the two main factors that have caused slight peaks in turnout in the past have been recessions and deep polarization -- both of which are present this year.
Gans lists several factors that could hinder voter turnout. These include a youth demographic that may be at its peak turnout, concerns within the conservative base about Gov. Sarah Palin's nomination, a large group of voters that either haven't decided or are likely to change their minds, and the campaign's intense mudslinging between the candidates.
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