by Frank James
One of the biggest question marks right now about what will happen on Election Day is whether Democrats will gain a filibuster-proof Senate by reaching 60 votes.
The filibuster, of course, is the way that the Senate minority can step on the brakes and stop the majority in its tracks. If the majority can't get to 60, it can't end debate on legislation and the bill is essentially blocked.
Currently, Democrats have 51 votes, counting Sen. Joe Lieberman, the Connecticut independent.
So they would need at nine seats if you count Lieberman and ten without him.
Democrats could get to ten or even nine, especially if we see what's called a wave election in which voters deliver an overwhelming victory to Democrats, though it's far from in the cards at this point.
Both the Cook Political Report and RealClearPolitics provide us the races to keep an eye on.
Here's an excerpt from the Cook Political Report.
Indeed, what appears to be two of the biggest factors in whether Democrats reach a theoretical 60-seat, filibuster-proof Senate, at least on party-line votes, is whether you start off with an assumption of them having 50, that is, not counting Joe Lieberman, or 51, with the Connecticut independent in the count; and whether Alaskan incumbent Ted Stevens is acquitted or convicted in his ongoing trial for not reporting personal gifts. There is a general assumption that if convicted, Stevens is likely to lose his re-election bid, if acquitted, he more likely wins, but then again, given the unpredictable nature of the last couple of years in American politics, any assumption is probably dangerous.
It's hard to see the Senate as anything but grisly for the GOP. No one disputes that Democrats will pick up the open seats in Virginia and New Mexico. Republican nominee Bob Schaffer in the open seat in Colorado and GOP incumbents John Sununu in New Hampshire and Gordon Smith in Oregon all appear to be running behind their Democratic opponents by a handful of points. With just three weeks left, it's hard to see how they recover, barring an unforeseen event.
Sen. Elizabeth Dole is running a couple of points behind Democratic challenger Kay Hagan in North Carolina, but is well within the margin of error. Incumbent GOP Sens. Roger Wicker in Mississippi and Saxby Chambliss in Georgia are running slightly ahead of their Democratic challengers, former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove and former state Rep. Jim Martin, respectively. Both races are considered Toss Ups. Minnesota Sen. Norm Coleman is locked in an intensely competitive and volatile three-way race against Democrat Al Franken and Independence Party nominee Dean Barkley.
On a really bad night, that's nine seats, with one more incumbent, Minority Leader Mitch McConnell in Kentucky, holding on to a lead against Democratic businessman Bruce Lunsford. McConnell is holding right around 50 percent, perhaps 8 or 9 points ahead, but isn't likely to see many undecided voters fall his way.
While it is very unlikely that Republicans will lose all of these seats, anyone who doesn't think that one party can win just about all of the close races hasn't watched these things for very long, and in fact must not have been paying attention two years ago.
RealClearPolitics gives us this list:
10. Kentucky (R - McConnell) -- It's never good when a campaign's internal poll shows an incumbent under 50, and it's even worse when the poll's trendline shows the race closing. Republican Mitch McConnell is ahead, but his leadership on the highly unpopular bailout legislation has cost him. Fellow Senator Jim Bunning's vocal and vehement opposition to the bill isn't helping McConnell in his race against Democrat Bruce Lunsford. RCP Average: McConnell +6.5.
9. Mississippi (R - Wicker) -- Democrats have caught every break possible in this race. Because it's a special election, Republican Roger Wicker and Democrat Ronnie Musgrove won't have party labels next to their names. And Democrats won a court fight to put the race atop the ballot, limiting the number of pro-Barack Obama drop-offs. Wicker has a narrow lead, but bad economic news could help Musgrove, who served as governor during much better economic times. RCP Average: Wicker +4.
8. Minnesota (R - Coleman) -- Unilaterally taking down his negative ads served a political purpose beyond just a day of good press for Republican Norm Coleman. The ads had started backfiring, costing Coleman support, and now he finds himself in a dogfight with Democrat Al Franken. Independence Party candidate Dean Barkley is good for Coleman in that some anti-GOP votes won't go to Franken, but he helps Democrats by denying anti-Franken votes, of which here will be plenty, to Coleman. RCP Average: Franken +2.2.
7. Alaska (R - Stevens) -- Justice Department prosecutors who have succeeded in making the judge in Ted Stevens' corruption trial furious, and it's clarified one truth about Stevens' bid for another term: If he's acquitted, Stevens is the favorite. If he's convicted, Democrat Mark Begich will be a U.S. Senator. This race could either shoot up the list or drop off completely in the next two weeks. RCP Average: Begich +3.2.
6. North Carolina (R - Dole) -- Republican strategists are becoming more open in their frustration with Republican Elizabeth Dole's lackluster campaign. Attacks on Democrat Kay Hagan for being a big-government liberal haven't stuck, while shots at Dole accusing her of being ineffective and absent from the state have taken their toll. Few would have put this race in their list before this cycle, but most now agree that Dole is the underdog. RCP Average: Hagan +3.3.
5. Oregon (R - Smith) -- One might not expect Democrats Ted Kennedy, John Kerry, Barack Obama and Ron Wyden to make cameos in positive campaign ads for a Republican, but that's just what Gordon Smith has done. Still, it may not be enough in a state that continues to trend left. There are a lot of Oregon Democrats kicking themselves for taking a pass on the race and leaving an easy target for Jeff Merkley, who will have to grow into the seat. RCP Average: Merkley +3.7.
4. New Hampshire (R - Sununu) -- For a while there, Senator John Sununu looked like he might make a Lazarus-like comeback. But Democrat Jeanne Shaheen has run a virtually flawless campaign, and her lead has once again stabilized. RCP Average: Shaheen +5.9.
3. Colorado (Open R - Allard retiring) -- Last month, some polls showed a close race, but now Rep. Mark Udall has pulled into a clear and formidable lead. Millions of dollars spent trying to label him a "Boulder liberal" have not helped Republican ex-Rep. Bob Schaffer catch up. RCP Average: Udall +9.3.
2. New Mexico (Open R - Domenici retiring) -- Rep. Tom Udall cleared the primary field and never looked back after conservative Rep. Steve Pearce won the GOP primary. The National Republican Senatorial Committee pulled out months ago. RCP Average: Udall +17.6.
1. Virginia (Open R - Warner retiring) -- Republican Jim Gilmore faced a Herculean task in defeating Democrat Mark Warner. Three weeks out, it's clear the feat was too much. RCP Average: Warner +28.2.
While Democrats would be better able to get their agenda through the Senate with a filibuster-proof majority, it would also mean Democrats would no longer have Republicans to blame for the nation's inability to make progress, particularly if one of their own, Sen. Barack Obama, wins the White House.
Democrats would have to take full blame for what went wrong, just as House and Senate Republicans did in 2006 and Democrats in both chambers did in 1994.
In politics, often your best friend is an opponent you can blame at election time for blocking your agenda.
Comments
Remember how in 1996 and 2006, media Liberals found merit in a "divided government", with one party controlling Congress and the other the presidency?
Heard any of that lately from the same media people?
Since they think their party (the Dems) has a chance to control it all, suddenly "divided government" has (to them) lost its charm.
Posted by: Disgusted | October 20, 2008 1:53 PM
Dear Disgusted, sorry to break your heart but this is 2008 and your loser Republican party has done everything in their power to divide the country and the Congress since they became the minority. This is why the media does not discuss the merits of a divided government anymore. It didnt work because of your parties divisiveness nature.
Posted by: Scot S. Blakeley | October 20, 2008 3:25 PM
I second Scot.
I don't recall the "liberal media" advocating divided govenment.
I do recall some describing it and reporting on it, but not in a particularly favorable way.
Republican Party has done itself in by its inability to govern and its greed.
RIP
Posted by: ornery | October 20, 2008 6:50 PM
A break-free Senate means a free-fall for this country under the REPO (Reid-Pelosi-Obama) administration
Posted by: Terry | October 21, 2008 12:01 AM
That whole 'divided government is good' routine was trotted out to try to explain why the US continually had gridlocked government. It was an attempt to put a rational spin on our irrational system.
Remember, we are a republic, not a democracy, as cons. always like to point out.
BTW, if we actually had a modern parliamentary system, Bush would be long gone.
Posted by: C.Hussein.Morris | October 21, 2008 8:27 AM