Congressional power within Dems' grasp

by James Oliphant

Congressional Democrats appear close to having something they haven't known for a long time: power.

After being marginalized by the Bush administration and stymied by a cohesive Republican minority, Democrats on the Hill look poised to score significant gains Tuesday in the House and Senate. As a result, they may be in a position to shape the near-term policy agenda, regardless of whether Republican John McCain or Democrat Barack Obama wins the presidency.

Estimates have Democrats picking up between six and 10 seats in the Senate and perhaps 20 to 30 seats in the House (more if everything breaks their way), which would give them a commanding majority.

The margin in the Senate is particularly significant. While the Democrats are ostensibly in control now by the slimmest degree, the body has been largely paralyzed by partisan discord and the inability to build cross-party coalitions. That has allowed Republicans to block any major piece of legislation they oppose.

Part of that can be blamed on the Senate's arcane rules. Sixty votes are necessary to end a filibuster's drawn-out debate on a measure and force it to a vote. And the Democratic leadership has been hard-pressed to find the Republicans to help make that happen.

But 60 Democratic seats, arguably, are within reach--a prospect that seemed unthinkable just months ago. And even more conservative estimates place the potential Democratic gains at only a few seats short of 60. That would be enough to get many bills to the floor, as some moderate GOP senators may not want to be viewed as obstructing key legislation.

It could give Democrats the chance to pass some of their "cherished dreams," said Paul Beck, a professor of political science at Ohio State University.

But with power comes temptation--the risk that they could overplay their hand, especially if Obama is elected, he said.

It happened after Bill Clinton won the presidency in 1992 and began trying to move his health-care agenda through the Democratic Congress. "Clinton right out of the box was very ambitious," Beck said. "Of course it turned into a debacle."

Two years later came the "Republican Revolution," when the GOP gained control of both the House and Senate.

The early Democratic agenda could include a new economic stimulus package if one isn't passed in the current session, and action on taxes, as the cuts made under President George W. Bush expire in 2010.

There has been some talk about ending a tax break for hedge fund managers. Also likely is a new regulatory regime to oversee the financial markets in an effort to prevent the current economic meltdown from recurring.

More controversial would be legislation to authorize "check cards" as a means to make it easier for workers to organize and join unions. That would invite an extended fight from the business community.

Morris Fiorina, a fellow with the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, believes Obama, if elected, would likely chart a cautious course. "My guess is that the Democratic base will be disappointed in the first year under Obama," he said.

One reason for that goes beyond politics. The current economic climate may make expensive government programs impractical. "Obama has already tried to lower expectations," Fiorina said.

Of course, if McCain wins the White House, he'll likely face a hostile Congress. His own initiatives likely would be dead on arrival and his presidency could be marked by inaction. "I tell my Republican friends, 'You don't want to win this election,' " Fiorina said. McCain recently has taken to warning voters of the dangers of undivided government, saying he is needed as a check on Congress.

The Democratic optimism about the Senate is centered on a few races, in places such as Kentucky and North Carolina that were viewed not long ago as locks for the Republican incumbents there, Mitch McConnell and Elizabeth Dole, respectively.

McConnell, the Senate minority leader, may yet survive, but Dole could be in real trouble. Democrats also could pick up seats in Alaska, after the conviction of Sen. Ted Stevens, Colorado (if Democrat Rep. Mark Udall replaces the GOP's retiring Wayne Allard), New Hampshire (if former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen defeats incumbent John Sununu), New Mexico (if Rep. Tom Udall replaces the retiring Pete Domenici), Oregon (if Jeff Merkley ousts Gordon Smith) and Virginia (if former Gov. Mark Warner replaces the retiring John Warner).

Races in Georgia and Minnesota also could tilt blue. But right now, the Republican incumbents there, Saxby Chambliss and Norm Coleman, appear to be in the lead.

Only one Democratic senator appeared to be endangered, but Louisiana's Mary Landrieu seems to be pulling away from state Treasurer John Kennedy.

Two members of the Senate, Joe Lieberman of Connecticut and Bernie Sanders of Vermont, are independents who largely vote with the Democrats. Lieberman has been a vocal supporter of McCain.

Ohio State's Beck said that whether Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D- Nevada) and others decide to punish Lieberman by booting him from the Democratic caucus or stripping him of a committee chairmanship will reveal if Democrats are in a conciliatory or vengeful mood. "They'll still need him to some degree, but to a lesser degree," Beck said. "That will be an early signal of whether they are taking scalps."

joliphant@tribune.com

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