If McCain wins...

By Andrew Zajac

The Swamp offers this thought to cheer, or perhaps depress, students of the American political process now on the verge of a lull in the action after one of the longest presidential campaigns in U.S. history:

If John McCain wins, you're likely looking at a campaign to succeed him begin soon after he's sworn in, like maybe right after the dancing stops at the inaugural balls.

At 72, McCain would be the oldest person ever to be sworn in as a first-term president. As a matter of political calculation, if not definition, he instantly would be a lame duck.

McCain might well have every intention of serving two terms and walking out of the White House at age 80 in 2017. And he might turn out to be a popular president and cruise to a second term in 2012.

But don't expect rivals in either major party to wait for that scenario to unfold. The expectation will be that McCain will serve only one term, or that his age, possibly coupled with an unfavorable political landscape, will become enough of an issue that he'll receive stiff challenges for a second term, from Democrats and Republicans alike.

The electorate won't be patient for long, either. Not with two long wars still underway and the economy and the federal government's finances a shambles. A McCain victory, if there is one, is likely to be narrow, depriving him of the cushion of a mandate.

All of this points to a slog to November 2012 beginning soon after a President McCain takes office on January 20, 2009.

It also may make political reporters, campaign junkies and Joe the TV ad watcher nostalgic for the relative brevity of the 22-month campaign leading up to the election of 2008.