by Mark Silva
The Bradley effect? A problem or urban myth?
CBS Evening News anchor Katie Couric asked Democrat Barack Obama the question that many are asking about all those opinion polls which portray an advantage for the first African-American candidate for president. Pre-election polls showed that another African-American, former Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, was favored in a 1982 California governor's race, only to lose the race.
(The so-called "Bradley effect'' of voters not leveling with pollsters about an African-American candidate has been disputed by many, including The Gallup Poll's Frank Newport -- suggesting that Bradley's own pollster invented a myth as a means of covering the tracks of his own bad polling. Others suggest that Obama may overcome any such reak factor with an extraordinary turnout of African-American voters.)
"There's been a debate about the Bradley effect, which as you know, in essence is when some respondents lie to pollsters and say "Sure, we'd vote for an African American candidate but on Election Day they just don't do it,'' Couric told Obama, in an interview conducted in Ohio and aired this evening. "A lot of people say it's a phenomenon that's outdated, overstated - and misunderstood. Having said that, do you think we'll see evidence of that on Election Day?''
"You know, I have to tell you, I'm in the camp that says it's outdated and overstated,'' Obama replied. "I mean, the fact of the matter is that people have been worrying and fussing about whether or not I'm hampered because I'm an African American since we were campaigning in Iowa.
"The reason I'm sitting here two days before the election as the Democratic nominee is because the American people ultimately care about whether or not you can do the job.''
Comments
Of course Obama would like to beleive that the Bradley effect is a non-factor. Problem for him is that race could very well be the tipping point for undecided whites in battleground states. It will hurt him. Enough to let McCain win? Maybe not...
http://www.political-buzz.com/
Posted by: matt | November 3, 2008 7:40 PM
No Barack...The reason your sitting here "two days before an election" is because you played the race card to perfection!
You did to Hillary and B.j. Clinton and you did it to McCain. You have done nothing!.. yet the medie refuses to look deeply enough into your background.
We knew more about Joe the plumber and Sarah Palin in one week than we ever found out about you.
You got a free ride.
Paulo
Posted by: Paulo | November 3, 2008 7:57 PM
Before the die is cast, there is speculation what the number wil be, then there is a bet.
When the bet is won, there is NEWS about an effect - statistical numbers keep on rolling to prove the point why analysts were right.
When the bet is lost, its still NEWS - statistical inference being proved wrong gives birth to a new effect such a Bradley Effect...
Whatever the case, analysts prove themselves as winners to sell their point; political endorsements and such just adds the spice up ... all a play to keep us glued to this trash - who wins or who loses?
Does it matter? I don't believe a president alone can change the fate of a nation unless you are the Fuhrer....
...America is strong enough not to rely on politics...
Posted by: Amit | November 3, 2008 8:19 PM
There's also a reverse Bradley: people who can't admit to their friends that they WILL vote black, but do.
Anyway, the last month of the McCain campaign has been a desperate search to find reasons to offer people not to vote for Obama. Who has to hide that they won't because he's black? They can trot out any of a number of things, from "experience" to "palling around with terrorists".
Posted by: The Ridger | November 3, 2008 9:01 PM
We think Obama is right about this. We live in rural Missouri and the rednecks around here will just tell you straight out how they will vote. Even the Redneck Gazette endorses obama. .....................
http://thefiresidepost.com/2008/11/03/redneck-gazette-obama-gonna-win/
Posted by: Ohg Rea Tone | November 3, 2008 9:05 PM
Matt--I don't believe anything that comes out of any of Karl Rove's orifices, and neither should you.
Posted by: Golden "Hussein" Oldie saying just put your head down and WORK--ignore the media | November 3, 2008 9:30 PM
Bradley Effect supplanted by Obama Effect:
whites who vote for Obama but won't admit it.
Any way you slice it, McCain is between Barack and a hard place.
Posted by: ornery | November 3, 2008 10:12 PM
Hi, Mark,
I've enjoyed The Swamp all year.
You have your history of the Bradley Effect wrong in a minor detail.
The inventor of the Bradley Effect myth was not Bradley's pollster, but rather the pre-eminent public pollster in the state, Mervin Field. Bradley staffers just endorsed Field's story as a way to cover up their mistakes.
Here's the the great California journalist Dan Walters on the episode:
http://www.pbs.org/now/shows/441/prejudice-campaign.html
And here's the story from the horse's mouth, V, Lance Tarrance, Deukmejian's pollster:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/10/the_bradley_effect_selective_m.html
Posted by: Thom Riehle | November 3, 2008 11:02 PM
Well....we'll see about that tomorrow.
Paulo
Posted by: Paulo | November 3, 2008 11:53 PM
The Bradley effect never existed. The election numbers matched the final polls that the various campaigns had before the election.
Posted by: dbt | November 4, 2008 1:38 AM
Regardless if Obam is elected the McCain voter as a hold will never accept him as the race has been too bitter-
Posted by: Inky | November 4, 2008 5:02 AM
Regardless if Obam is elected the McCain voter as a hold will never accept him as the race has been too bitter-
Posted by: Inky | November 4, 2008 5:02 AM
What are you going to do Secede? Rebel? Become a traitor?
Posted by: JT | November 4, 2008 8:40 AM
Ref-
Regardless if Obam is elected the McCain voter as a hold will never accept him as the race has been too bitter-
Posted by: Inky | November 4, 2008 5:02 AM
What are you going to do Secede? Rebel? Become a traitor?
Posted by: JT | November 4, 2008 8:40 AM
Traitaor not at the present but I won't switch to socialism-
Posted by: Inky | November 4, 2008 9:14 AM
Obama has had Illinois locked up since, er, about 2004 when he won the Senate by 60 %.
So, how come the 3 hour wait in early voting polling places ???
Because it is not about winning; it is about giving him a MANDATE.
Republican Masters of Disaster, kiss you ----- goodbye.
Posted by: ornery | November 4, 2008 9:15 AM
Hey Inky,
The democrats never asked for the torture of the Bush reign for 4 long years, yet we gave him respect because he was the country's leader. I am hopeful that McCain voters will do the same if Obama wins. Life is too short to hold a grudge like that. nothing good comes of rudeness.
Posted by: Kate Lewis | November 4, 2008 2:33 PM