by Frank James
Pollster.com has one of the best websites for tracking polls and allocating states on the Electoral College map using the best available information.
Their Election Day map shows Sen. Barack Obama with 291 electoral votes (270 is the magic number) based on the most recent polls with Sen. John McCain at 142. Toss-up states number 105.
Obviously, even giving McCain all the toss-ups doesn't get him to 270. Just as obviously, EVs are allocated on real votes, not polls.
Among the most important changes to the Pollster.com map was Ohio, a state President Bush won in 2004, being moved to the "toss-up" category from "leans Obama" although Mark Blumenthal, the main analysts for the site says he thinks Ohio is still leaning Obama.
Also, because of the latest polling, Colorado, which Bush also won in 2004, is now seen as solid for Obama.
Here's Blumenthal's analysis:
The new surveys helped change our map classifications in two states. The six new surveys in Ohio had quite a spread -- from 7 point Obama lead on the Quinnipiac survey to 2 point McCain lead by Republican affiliated Strategic Vision -- but the four of the six showed margins of less than 2 points. Thus, the new surveys narrowed Obama's lead on our Ohio trend estimate to just over three points (49.4% to 46.3%), enough to shift the state from "lean" Obama to our toss-up classification.
The "narrowing" in Ohio looks a lot like the pattern discussed yesterday in Pennsylvania. Virtually all of the change on our trend estimate has been an increase in McCain's percentage, but Obama's numbers have remained flat and just shy of 50%.
Regular readers know that dividing line between "lean" and "toss-up" on are map is relatively arbitrary and based on a statistical formula that takes into account both the the margin and the average sample size in each state. It is worth considering that of the 13 final Ohio polls by each organization released in the last week, 10 showed Obama leading (by 2 to 9 points), 2 showed McCain leading (by 2 points on each) and 1 had a tied margin. So "toss-up" is probably too weak a characterization. Were I making a subjective assessment, I would consider Ohio leaning Obama.
Colorado also changed colors on our map this morning, from light blue "lean" to dark blue "strong" Obama. Even though the new Rasmussen poll shows Obama leading by just four points (51% to 47%), the new poll extends a trend that had been favoring Obama, and nudges Obama's Colorado margin up to to 7.6 points (51.9% to 44.3%) -- enough to shift to the strong category.
As for the national polls, most showed no evidence of a "narrowing" in McCain's favor. As compared to their most recent sample with non-overlapping field dates, 7 showed slight, nominal movement to Obama, three to McCain and two had unchanged margins. Our trend estimate ticks up to a 7.7 point advantage for Obama (51.9% to 44.2% as of this writing).
Comments
Senator Obama has brought hope in a time of despair. We each owe him our gratitude. ...................
http://thefiresidepost.com/2008/10/29/senator-obama-to-sir-with-love-2/
Posted by: Ohg Rea Tone | November 4, 2008 10:38 AM
And just you wait an see,if the Dems control the White House and the Congress, you can kiss the "Electoral College" goodbye. Which sort of aggravates me, because I don't think that there's anyone from either party that could carry any of our founding fathers shoes.
Posted by: paul | November 4, 2008 12:44 PM