by Frank James
Gallup has completed it pre-election polling and all indications are that enough voters support Sen. Barack Obama to make him the next president of the U.S.
Here's an excerpt from Gallup's report, based its final Gallup/USA Today tracking poll before Election Day:
PRINCETON, NJ -- The final Gallup 2008 pre-election poll -- based on Oct. 31-Nov. 2 Gallup Poll Daily tracking -- shows Barack Obama with a 53% to 42% advantage over John McCain among likely voters. When undecided voters are allocated proportionately to the two candidates to better approximate the actual vote, the estimate becomes 55% for Obama to 44% for McCain.
The trend data clearly show Obama ending the campaign with an upward movement in support, with eight to 11 percentage point leads among likely voters in Gallup's last four reports of data extending back to Oct. 28. Obama's final leads among both registered voters and likely voters are the largest of the campaign...
...It would take an improbable last minute shift in voter preferences or a huge Republican advantage in Election Day turnout for McCain to improve enough upon his predicted share of the vote in Gallup's traditional likely voter model to overcome his deficit to Obama.
If Gallup is wrong this would be the biggest polling mistake since pollsters got the Harry Truman - Thomas Dewey presidential race wrong in 1948. It would be a monumental embarrassment, to say the least. Given that, it's safe to suspect that Gallup is pretty confident about its modeling and findings.
It also must be said that Gallup has been very accurate in presidential cycles in the modern era, even in close races like 2000. So there's a track record which should make Obama supporters very confident and McCain backers fairly discouraged.











Comments
May hate and division be a thing of the past.
Posted by: bill "Hussein" r. | November 2, 2008 11:00 PM
Thanks god, we wont get 4 more years of bush's policies to help the rich.
I cant wait for Obama to win
Posted by: john | November 2, 2008 11:32 PM
You Betcha!!
WINK WINK!!!
,,,,,
Posted by: Sarah_Felon | November 2, 2008 11:36 PM
lets hope for last minute realization that the true leader should be mccain. obamas not ready.
Posted by: micah ely | November 2, 2008 11:40 PM
Please watch and listen:
(http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2008/11/nadler-criticiz.html?cid=137448191#comment-137448191)
Nadler Criticizes Obama’s 'Courage'
November 02, 2008 11:10 PM
Rep. Jerrold Nadler, D-NY, was down in Florida over the weekend, and one supposes that he thought he was helping Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., but it will ultimately be hard to make that case.
Pamela Geller at Atlas Shrugged has posted some video of Nadler at a synagogue in Boca Raton trying to explain why Obama was able to stay in Rev. Jeremiah Wright’s church for 20 years.
He starts off my saying he has no idea of what he's talking about. And then he proceeds to open mouth, insert foot.
(http://gatewaypundit.blogspot.com/2008/11/shocking-new-audio-obama-promises-to.html)
Sunday, November 02, 2008
EXPLOSIVE NEW AUDIO-- Obama Promises San Francisco Audience He Will Bankrupt Coal Industry!!
OBAMA TOLD A SAN FRANCISCO AUDIENCE THAT HE WILL BANKRUPT THE COAL INDUSTRY!!!
ATTN: Coal states Virginia , Ohio, Pennsylvania, Colorado, and Indiana, guess what Obama told San Francisco about you?
OBAMA TELLS SAN FRANCISCO HE WILL BANKRUPT THE COAL INDUSTRY:
Posted by: Dave | November 3, 2008 12:34 AM
Even in Red State Texas, we are optimistic about a new dawn in America. Godspeed, President Obama.
Posted by: tslat | November 3, 2008 12:53 AM
John McCain is a pathetic old man, humpted and struggling, trying to look energetic as he strolls (struggles) back and forth on different stages trying to look energetic. He is way overdue for a rocking chair on the porch of one of the many residences that he played Cindy the heiress to acquire.
Posted by: Hedcutter | November 3, 2008 1:41 AM
Thank GOD Obama is ahead in this and in every other of the 250 national polls. The Republicans have bankrupted this country with uncontrolled spending, an expensive,unnecessary war (we already had Iraq surrounded in 2003) and they allowed Wall street to gut our future wealth. The last thing we need now is that fidgety, creepy old man McCain anywhere NEAR the White House. Go Barack!!
Posted by: Mark Montgomery | November 3, 2008 4:15 AM
We will see soon if that is true.
I hoping for a Complex Bradley Effect.
http://zachjonesishome.wordpress.com/2008/11/02/complexity-regarding-the-%e2%80%9cthe-bradley-effect%e2%80%9d/
Posted by: ZachJonesIsHome | November 3, 2008 5:14 AM
Don't be lulled by the polls. We need to decisively elect Dems across the board and then PUSH them away from the right---and DEFEND them. Bill Clinton was instantly under attack from time he stepped into the office. We need to sweep the current version of the repugnican party to the street in city, county, state, and yes presidential race(s) this year.
Posted by: Sing about peace love and understanding after we kick the repugs to the curb | November 3, 2008 5:17 AM
Hope that Obama will "Gallup" to the finish line tomorrow!
Posted by: Independent | November 3, 2008 7:01 AM
Dave and the republicans wish to mislead America for their own drive for power. Read the entire comment instead of the sound bites the rabid put out there.
Here’s the entirety of Obama’s remarks:
“I voted against the Clear Skies Bill. In fact, I was the deciding vote -- despite the fact that I’m a coal state and that half my state thought that I had thoroughly betrayed them. Because I think clean air is critical and global warming is critical.
“But this notion of no coal, I think, is an illusion. Because the fact of the matter is, is that right now we are getting a lot of our energy from coal. And China is building a coal-powered plant once a week. So what we have to do then is figure out how can we use coal without emitting greenhouse gases and carbon. And how can we sequester that carbon and capture it. If we can’t, then we’re gonna still be working on alternatives.
“But ... let me sort of describe my overall policy. What I’ve said is that we would put a cap and trade policy in place that is as aggressive if not more aggressive than anyone out there. I was the first call for 100 percent auction on the cap and trade system. Which means that every unit of carbon or greenhouse gases that was emitted would be charged to the polluter. That will create a market in which whatever technologies are out there that are being presented, whatever power plants are being built, they would have to meet the rigors of that market and the ratcheted-down caps that are imposed every year.
“So if somebody wants to build a coal-powered plant, they can. It’s just that it will bankrupt them because they’re going to be charged a huge sum for all that greenhouse gas that’s being emitted. That will also generate billions of dollars that we can invest in solar, wind, biodiesel, and other alternative energy approaches. The only thing that I’ve said with respect to coal -- I haven’t been some coal booster. What I have said is that for us to take coal off the table as an ideological matter, as opposed to saying if technology allows us to use coal in a clean way, we should pursue it, that I think is the right approach. The same with respect to nuclear. Right now, we don’t know how to store nuclear waste wisely and we don’t know how to deal with some of the safety issues that remain. And so it’s wildly expensive to pursue nuclear energy. But I tell you what, if we could figure out how to store it safely, then I think most of us would say that might be a pretty good deal.
“The point is, if we set rigorous standards for the allowable emissions, then we can allow the market to determine and technology and entrepreneurs to pursue, what the best approach is to take, as opposed to us saying at the outset, here are the winners that we’re picking and maybe we pick wrong and maybe we pick right.”
Don't be mislead by the untruthful.
Posted by: bill "Hussein" r. | November 3, 2008 8:13 AM
Yeah, tslat @ 12:53 a.m., a lot of you democrats truly are, not just in Socialist Travis County.
HOWEVER, I would hate to disagree with Lincoln, the 16th President of the former U.S. of America on ANYTHING, but Texas would be much better off taking our Grade A Naphthenic Crude and becoming an independent Republic. We could cut trade deals with Mexico and sell refined lube oils to Amerika for $250 a quart. They would go for that. Wouldn't have a choice.
Posted by: Django S. - Houston Tx | November 3, 2008 12:14 PM
Hey, Obama-ade drinking bill @ 11:00 p.m.,
Hate and division, this is the political game that democrats play so exceptionally well, else, whether it be taxes, religion, the non-constitutionality of abortion, the 2nd Amendment, the 1st Amendment, oil and gas, the Military, states south of Mason-Dixon, small town America. Who the heck are you kidding?
With respect to your Coal Dissertation, allow me to same everyone else the trouble of reading through all of that Hem-Haw. If there is one thing that the great Obama has been clear about, is his clear, determined desire to TAX COAL OUT OF
EXISTENCE.
Sieg Heil! and have a nice day.
Faithfully,
Django de Mexico
Posted by: Django S. - Houston Tx | November 3, 2008 12:41 PM
Obama's social experiment ... or, should I say Socialist experiment, will bring America to it's knees! America has more coal than any other country in the world. Coal is one of America's greatest natural resources, and our most abundant source of fuel. Our economy and our National Security is extremely intertwined with coal. We should be supporting and promoting clean coal. The thought that Obama would possibly bankrupt our coal industry is scary. Obama's 20 year history of embracing radical ideas, radical people and radical change to our country allows this candidate with virtually no experience, to gamble with our constitution, our economy, our national security, and our future. Keep America safe and prosperous, ... Elect McCain/Palin on November 4th !!!
Posted by: Howard | November 3, 2008 12:48 PM
If there is one thing that the great Obama has been clear about, is his clear, determined desire to TAX COAL OUT OF
EXISTENCE.
Sieg Heil! and have a nice day.
Faithfully,
Django de Mexico
Posted by: Django S. - Houston Tx | November 3, 2008 12:41 PM
Funny you see it that way. By the way....did you know that McBush has the same cap and trade plan on coal as Obama. If you really had read it, and understood it, you would know that the only....I repeat only...difference is that Obamas cap and trade is aimed at an 80% reduction in gas by 2050, and McBushs' is aimed at a 66% reduction by 2050. That's it. So does this mean McBush wants to bankrupt coal companies......well if you say Obama does....so does McBush.
Posted by: bill "Hussein" r. | November 3, 2008 3:20 PM
McCain's proposal is more reasonable. It does not place an additional environmental barrier in the way of coal liquefaction plants. "We found a way to cut down acid rain pollutants from burning coal - and we can find a way to use our coal resources without emitting excessive greenhouse gases," he has said.
Ultra-liberals in Congress are determined to wipe out the U.S. coal industry. Even the qualified statements Obama makes about coal are based on the knowledge that liberals like Sen. Harry Reid and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi would attempt to block clean coal technology. With a compliant Obama in the White House, they could accomplish that.
McCain is the obvious choice for voters in coal states - and for any American thoughtful enough to understand the realities of energy policy.
The Intelligencer / Wheeling News-Register
----------------------
bill @ 3:20 p.m.
I am not a pious student of politician's policy positions. I do find that democrats are very good at telling their audience whatever story that they need to hear on any given day. Amazingly, the great Obama IS telling us what he intends to do, but the -ade drinkers are not listening. For what it is worth, this is what a Virgina paper is saying about McCain's position vs the great Obama.
Absolutely must run. Pretty Latina waiting on Django. Have a nice day.
Posted by: Django S. - Houston Tx | November 3, 2008 4:43 PM