by Jim Tankersley
As the presidential race enters its final weekend after two years of battle, John McCain's best chance for a history-defying comeback rests in the greatest of electoral unknowns: voter turnout.
To win on Tuesday, analysts and polls suggest, the Republican nominee must win nearly all the remaining undecided voters in key swing states and peel a large chunk of "soft" supporters from Democratic rival Barack Obama. Then he must hope that his supporters vote in overwhelming numbers, and that more Obama supporters than expected stay home.
It would be a daunting task in any election, but it's particularly the case this year, when analysts predict the largest voter turnout ever, perhaps 130 million, and the biggest percentage of eligible voters casting ballots in a century.
"It would have to be almost like a perfect game," said Christopher Borick, a Muhlenberg College professor who conducts a daily tracking poll in Pennsylvania, a key battleground state. "Everything would have to break his way."
The McCain campaign believes it will, despite trailing by an average of more than 6 points in polls tracked by RealClearPolitics.com. In a conference call Friday, senior McCain campaign officials said they were picking up momentum and votes. They cast doubt on the turnout assumptions of several polls that showed them trailing badly nationwide and said they've recently matched Obama in TV ad spending.
They extolled a campaign ground game they said far exceeded President George W. Bush's vaunted re-election machine four years ago in terms of phone and door-to-door contact with voters.
But the GOP's central argument stems from political history, specifically, voters' shifting identification with political parties. McCain pollster Bill McInturff said polls that show Obama with wide leads appear to greatly overestimate the number of self-described Democrats. Some show Democrats with a 15-point identification advantage over the GOP; since 1984, McInturff said, the largest Democratic lead in presidential exit polling was 5 points.
"What we're seeing in Missouri and Pennsylvania and in other states," he said, "is that the Barack Obama number is dropping and John McCain is gradually coming up, and I think he is dropping because of that kind of structural barrier in terms of the historic vote in this country."
Analysts expect a historically large turnout Tuesday, a prediction McInturff shares. In 2004, 60 percent of eligible voters cast ballots. Michael McDonald, a George Mason University associate professor who tracks early voting, predicted Friday that this year could approach 64 percent, which would be the biggest percentage since 1908.
The question is, who will those voters be?
Pollsters disagree. The latest poll for CBS News and The New York Times shows Democrats outnumbering Republicans by 7 points and Obama leading McCain by 11. The latest Fox News poll shows Democrats with a 2-point identification edge and Obama leading by 3. Gallup's latest poll using its time-honed "traditional likely voter" model shows Obama up by 8.
There's disagreement as well on what sort of turnout to expect from first-time voters, young people and African-Americans. Democrats predict those groups will vote at a higher clip than usual, and break heavily for Obama. McCain's team believes they will too, but that voting will also increase among other demographic groups, keeping the general makeup of the electorate mostly unchanged.
Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg challenged the GOP logic in an open letter to McInturff.
"The McCain polls assume that young voters and other new voters will not play a disproportionate part in an expanded electorate," Greenberg wrote. "And yet, in the primaries, though turnout more than doubled, young voters and Latinos significantly increased their proportion of the overall expanded electorate. We would not assume that the same cannot happen next week."
McDonald predicted a larger proportion of African-American voters this year, but not young people.
With time running out for a big event to reshape the race, McCain's comeback potential could depend on whose turnout model is correct.
"It's not so much things that have to happen" for McCain to catch up, said Jay Cost, who writes the data-based Horse Race Blog for RealClearPolitics. "He needs certain things to be true."
He also said a half-century of polling doesn't allow for easily predicting the difference between closing, say, a 7-point gap or a 4-point one.
History does favor Obama on one turnout count: the weather. AccuWeather.com says it will be unseasonably warm and dry on Election Day. Poor weather, the service noted, citing a 2007 study, tends to boost Republicans.
Comments
I see you all have not lost your fight :
GOOD! Because we have a lot to do. You! (the American people) are going to have to take back control of your elected government at every level, and set your government back on the right path of service to you, and the greater good of the World.
Barack Obama and the democrats are your best hope of doing that now. Tell your family, friends, and everyone you know to support them as best they can. Because the Bush McCain vote fraud, vote cheating, vote buying, vote manipulation machine is already hard at work to cheat you again. And we all know what a disaster that has been the past 8 years of Bush McCain.
Barack Obama and the democrats will need all the power you can give them at every level of government (Federal, State, County, and local City elected governments). Obama and the democrats will have an enormous mess to fix for the American people, and the rest of the World. A mess caused by the corrupt Bush McCain administration.
You see, starting back in 2000, and before 911, it was mostly the Republican governors, Republican legislatures, and county elected Republican officials that conspired with the corrupt Bush McCain administration to raise college, and university tuitions by the fastest, and highest rate increases in American history. Some state tuitions went up by as much as a WHOPPING! 30% in one year.
The reason the Bush McCain administration did this was to force struggling working class kids into the military to pay for the sudden jump in tuition. Which was forced on them by the corrupt Bush McCain administration, and their corrupt Republican Governors, and republican controlled state legislatures.
See, Bush McCain had plans to get us into all these immoral, foolish, criminal, and unnecessary wars from the start. So they could use these wars to seize power, and later to get reelected. But, for their evil plan to work they needed more volunteer soldiers struggling to pay for an education whose blood they could spill to help them seize more power. Remember Bush McCain's "MISSION ACCOMPLISHED!" theatrics.
The exploitation, and lost lives of these finest Americans is despicable, disgusting, immoral, corrupt and criminal. And it makes me SICK, and ANGRY!
You will have to vote for Obama, and the democrats in overwhelming numbers to overcome the Bush McCain vote fraud machine. Vote early if you can. Then help your fellow Americans cast their votes now, and on through election day. Vote for Obama, and the democrats like your life, and the lives of your loved ones depends on it. Because it does. You will not survive 4 more years of "Let Them Eat Cake" Bush McCain, and their republican allies.
Just look at the mess we have now.
You can fix this mess with your votes for Obama, and the democrats. And REMEMBER, no matter which of us may stumble or fall, the rest of you must continue to surge forward for Barack Obama, and the democrats, and for your-selves most of all. The children, and the World are counting on us.
It's in your hands now. And I know you will get it done.
God bless all of you.
JACK SMITH - WORKING CLASS... :-)
Posted by: jacksmith | November 1, 2008 1:34 PM
Im Hoping Obama will win.
We dont need to vote for the same 3 times in a row.
Posted by: Misty Reedd | November 1, 2008 1:57 PM
It does not look good for McCain or the nation. I am still amazed that this country would elect a man with so little experience, troubling associations, and socialistic ideas about "spreading the wealth." I keep hoping and praying that Americans will wake up and do what is right. This man could not even get a security clearance to be in the FBI or CIA and we want him to be the commander in chief of our military. ONLY IN AMERICA COULD THIS HAPPEN!
Posted by: Mike Nirider | November 1, 2008 2:46 PM
How will McCain's constituency find out about this, most of their racist skinhead base can't read!
Posted by: Randy | November 1, 2008 4:30 PM
Jack Smith, as always you are wasting space on the swamp. All you have to say, is McCain will protect this country from all its enemies, and get our economy back on its feet. See how easy it is, quit wasting useless words.
Misty Reedd, this is the problem with you, you can't count.
Posted by: Yes we will | November 1, 2008 4:39 PM
It is so sad that a great American like John McCain has allowed his campaign to be pulled down with racism and bigotry. Until a month ago I was an undecided voter. I honestly liked McCain. I voted for him in the 2000 primary, but his 2008 campaign has been based on hatred and anger. I am so sad for McCain, all the honor he earned as a POW in Vietnam has been lost in this disgraceful campaign. He has brought out the worst in America and Obama has brought out the best. Good luck President Obama!
Posted by: Scott | November 1, 2008 5:40 PM
Doesn't look like McBush will get the low turnout he needs. Obama supporters are fired up and Republican voter suppression tactics like last minute voter purges have been losing in court. I can't wait 'til Tuesday!
Posted by: Tom O | November 1, 2008 7:09 PM
Sad to see that the media has show a large amount of negative attacks against John. Personally I feel Obama is not the best choice for America, and can not be trusted.
Posted by: jason | November 1, 2008 7:48 PM
I'm glad to see McCain playing to win; it's a noble trait and will make me feel a little more comfortable with him if he pulls off a miracle.
But it looks to me like Obama will win and those who are hyperventilating about him ought to calm down and give the man a chance. If he wins its because the majority of Americans have lost their faith in the Republicans and with very good reason.
Posted by: Marc | November 1, 2008 8:40 PM
As the McCain Campaign continues their infighting - the big problem is with the candidate himself.
Senator McCain is a Liberal Republican that is a disasterous Presidential Candidate.
How did our Party ever nominate this guy?
This campaign is going to destroy the Republican Party for decades.
Never again should the Republicans NOT nominate a Conservative.
Conservatives like me are extremely angry and frustrated with Senator McCain, his inept staff, the RNC, and other Republican "moderate" candidates.
Many of us have also given thousands of dollars to various Republican Candidates, the RNC, the NRCC, and many other Republican PACs and entities. All we have to show for all of the money that we have donated is a bunch of "week kneed moderate babies" that make up the McCain Campaign and the RNC.
This disaster is not the President's fault nor can the blame be placed on the economy - the blame lies directly with the incompetent McCain campaign and the Senator himself.
Now the Senator must make a decision - is he going to go out like a wimp and do what he probably considers the "classy" thing to do: continue with his ridiculous "populist" message, lose in an electoral college landslide, and give a super majority to a bunch of Socialists and Marxists in Congress?
Or is the Senator going to act like a respected Military man should act: when you are going down, you have to take down as many of your enemies with you as possible! Do something to weaken Obama and the Democrats to the utmost before they take office! Maybe continuous Reverend Wright ads? (they should have done this from DAY 1!)
Stop this nonsense Senator McCain and go after Pelosi, Reid, Frank, Dodd, Rengel, Raines, Johnson, and every other Democrat that will continue to ruin this country!
Posted by: Rob Lasorsa | November 1, 2008 8:59 PM