by Frank James
Curtis Gans, one of the nation's leading voter turnout experts and director of the Center for the Study of the American Electorate at American University, says Americans didn't vote in the numbers that had been expected for this general election.
Indeed, he says this years turnout as a proportion of eligible voters may have only matched 2004 or slightly exceeded what was seen four years ago.
While Democrats were energized and turned out in larger numbers, the fall off in Republican turnout probably accounts for why turnout this year wasn't as spectacular as experts had forecast before Election Day.
Here's an excerpt from CSAE's report.
WASHINGTON, D.C. (November 6, 2008)--Despite lofty predictions by some academics, pundits, and practitioners that voter turnout would reach levels not seen since the turn of the last century, the percentage of eligible citizens casting ballots in the 2008 presidential election stayed at virtually the same relatively high level as it reached in the polarized election of 2004.
According to a report and turnout projection released today by American University's Center for the Study of the American Electorate (CSAE) and based, in part, on nearly final but unofficial vote tabulations as compiled by the Associated Press as of 7 p.m. Wednesday, November 5, the percentage of Americans who cast ballots for president in this year's presidential election will reach between 126.5 million and 128.5 million when all votes have been counted by early next month.
If this prediction proves accurate, turnout would be at either exactly the same level as in 2004 or, at most, one percentage point higher (or between 60.7 percent and 61.7 percent). If the rate of voting exceeds 61.0 percent of eligibles, turnout will have been the highest since 1964. This projection is based on the 121.5 million tabulated votes compiled by the Associated Press plus some estimate--partially based on experience with post-election vote counting in previous elections and partially based on factors specific to this election, most notably the spread of balloting prior to Election Day--on how many ballots are still to be counted.
A downturn in the number and percentage of Republican voters going to the polls seemed to be the primary explanation for the lower than predicted turnout. The percentage of eligible citizens voting Republican declined to 28.7 percent down 1.3 percentage points from 2004. Democratic turnout increased by 2.6 percentage points from 28.7 percent of eligibles to 31.3 percent. It was the seventh straight increase in the Democratic share of the eligible vote since the party's share dropped to 22.7 percent of eligibles in 1980.
Comments
Intelligent readers will note that yesterday this same reporter, Frank James, asserted exactly the opposite of what he writes above, in an article titled: "Voter turnout best in a long time."
And if Mr. Gans was so wrong on his voter turnout predictions, why is he used as an "expert" by Swamp reporters?
No wonder nobody believes what newspapers tell us.....
Posted by: Bruce | November 6, 2008 9:57 PM
The long lines in the battleground states tell the real story; I spent 4 hours voting, when it never before took longer than one. Maybe the other states not in contention, including the heavily populated CA, NY, IL didn't have such enthusiasm.
Posted by: rupert | November 7, 2008 8:34 AM
So tell us Bruce, which of Frank James' stories on voter turnout do you believe?
Posted by: Bubba | November 7, 2008 8:58 AM
Frank, if you have not figured out how the Swamp works, all they simply do is consolidate the news from other sources. This is why I enjoy coming here….they are usually short, condensed stories that get right to the point. I also enjoy reading stories that have opposing view points, that is why on tv, only the Newshour will do for me. My only displeasure with the Swamp, is the mountain of spelling, grammatical, and goof ups that they make that good proof reading and a good spell checker would eliminate.
Posted by: Xcellentform | November 7, 2008 10:20 AM