Young voters continue rise in turnout

by Laura Olson

The youth voters who came out strong for Barack Obama during the primaries appear to have done so again to bring him to the White House.

Initial figures on the youth turnout from CIRCLE, a research group that studies youth civic engagement, show at least a slight increase in this election's numbers, though a more solid figure won't come until a final vote total (including all absentee and early ballots) is available.

The group's early data puts the number of young voters between 22 and 24 million, according to CIRCLE director Peter Levine. That would put youth turnout between 49.3 and 54.5 percent, or an increase of 1 to 6 percent from the 2004 election.

"This is either a modest uptake or close to a record-breaking turnout, but either way we're seeing an increase," said Levine, noting that it continues an overall increase since 2000.

The highest turnout reported for the 18- to 29-year-old demographic came in 1972, the first election in which 18 year olds could vote and the figure reached 55.4 percent.

Early figures also project an increase in overall turnout, according to the Associated Press. The AP reports that: "136.6 million Americans will have voted for president this election, based on 88 percent of the country's precincts tallied and projections for absentee ballots, said Michael McDonald of George Mason University. Using his methods, that would give 2008 a 64.1 percent turnout rate."

But even more striking was who younger voters chose and the numbers who chose him. The CIRCLE data shows young voters favoring Barack Obama over John McCain by a more than 2-to-1 ratio, with 66 percent choosing Obama to 32 percent supporting McCain.

Compare that with the popular vote difference of 52 percent favoring Obama to 46 percent for McCain, and you've got an "unprecedented" disparity.

Levine credits Obama's extensive youth outreach for his ballot box success, and said that Ronald Reagan's 1984 campaign, where he too did well among younger voters, resulted in strong party affiliation among that cohort.

"That leaves us with the question of whether this generation will be the progressive alternative to that generation," he said.

Additional figures on the youth vote will be available in the coming weeks, and Levine said the group will be looking specifically at breakdowns in battleground states and among college/non-college youth.

But what happens now that the election is over?

Youth turnout appears to be on the upward, but continuing that trend may be heavily dependent upon what happens as the Obama administration begins to govern. Democrats could find opportunities to turn that activism into lobbying efforts for causes that their base is passionate about, such as environmental concerns, or could consider ways to create additional community service prospects, Levine said.