Barack Obama: The new 'decider'

by Mark Silva

Will the new senator from New York, Sen. Clinton, please rise to take the oath of office?

Bill Clinton, that is.

Caretaker, for the seat of his wife, the former first lady, Hillary Clinton, leaving the Senate to become secretary of state in the administration of Barack Obama.

That's one of the scenarios floating in New York, where Gov. David Paterson is presented with a difficult choice in the appointment of a successor to Hillary Clinton. So much attention has focused lately on Caroline Kennedy, daughter of President John F. Kennedy, for the appointment that the governor is said to be growing weary.

Some caretaker agreeing to serve only the remainder of Clinton's term, someone such as the former president, say, or former New York Gov. Mario Cuomo "could have an immediate impact for New York in the Senate while letting the large field of hopefuls duke it out in 2010,'' according to three Democratic Party advisers close to the discussion with Paterson's inner circle on this issue, as cited by the Associated Press.

(Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) appeared with her husband, former President Bill Clinton, during an October campaign rally in Scranton, Pa. (AP Photo by Jimmy Ma)

by Mark Silva

Hindsight, as they say, is 20/20.

This is what the road looked like through the windshield, driving through 2008 (with a review of the Gallup Poll's more interesting findings during the year ending tonight):

• In January, after the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, a hypothetical match-up between Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama puts McCain ahead of Obama, 50% to 45% and more said they prefer a tested leader than say they prefer an inspiring one.

• In February, despite neither candidate in the Democratic primary contest having yet secured enough delegates to win the Democratic presidential nomination, 70 percent of Democrats and 82 percent of Republicans predicted Obama would be the eventual winner.

• In March, McCain's favorable rating hit 67 percent, the highest of any of the three major presidential candidates and his highest since February of 2000. More than a quarter of Clinton supporters (28 percent) said they would vote for McCain if Barack Obama were the Democratic nominee.

• In April, Mike Huckabee of Arkansas and Mitt Romney of Massachusetts topped the wish lists of Republicans surveyed for McCain's vice presidential running mate.

• In May, Slightly more likely voters said McCain's association with President Bush made them less likely to vote for McCain (38 percent), than those who said Obama's association with the Rev. Jeremiah Wright diminished their likelihood of voting for Obama (33 percent).

• In June, confidence in Congress reached its lowest point ever, just 12 percent, and the lowest Gallup had ever measured for any institution.

by Mark Silva

There's no talking about the political and possibly legal showdown between Roland Burris and the Senate's Democratic leaders looming in Congress next week without talking about "the race card.''

"There are no African-Americans in the Senate," says Rep. Bobby Rush (pictured right), a Chicago Democrat and co-founder of the Illinois Black Panther Party. "And I don't think that anyone, any U.S. senator who's sitting in the Senate, right now, want to go on record to deny one African-American from being seated in the U.S. Senate."

That would be Burris, the first black official elected statewide in Illinois (both comptroller and attorney general), and now Gov. Rod Blagojevich's appointee for the vacant Senate seat of President-elect Barack Obama, who was the only African-American member of the Senate.

The Senate's Democratic leaders - with the full backing of Obama himself - vow to block Burris' seating in the Senate - not because of Burris himself, but because of who is appointing him, the Illinois governor who stands accused by federal authorities of attempting to sell Obama's seat to the highest bidder.

Neither Burris nor Obama nor any of the Senate's leaders want to make this a racial issue. But Rush and others stand ready to make that implication.

"I would ask you to not hang or lynch the appointee as you try to castigate the appointer," Rush said Tuesday in promising to lobby congressional leaders vowing not to seat Burris or anyone else appointed by the embattled two-term Democratic governor of Illinois.

This morning on CBS News' The Early Show, Rush suggested that those attacking Blagojevich should "chill.''

"I think what needs ... to happen now is that all these folks who are opposed to Gov. Blagojevich, they need to take a chill pill," Rush said. "We're still a nation of laws and I believe that Roland Burris and Gov. Blagojevich, they're on solid constitutional grounds in terms of ... him being selected. I think the U.S. Senate will have to accept him."

And Burris, appearing this morning on WGN-TV in Chicago, defended Rush's comments and maintained that the South Side congressman is not playing racial politics. Rush, Burris said, is just relating "facts and not playing the race card and not being emotional about it."

Donna Christensen, the congressional delegate to Congress from the Virgin Islands and an African American, had something to say about this today on the radio - on The Takeaway with John Hockenberry and Adaora Udoji on WNYC and Public Radio International.

(Rep. Bobby Rush, pictured at the center above, with Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich, left, and the governor's appointee for the Senate, Roland Burris. (AP Photo by M. Spencer Green)

by Mark Silva

Just when you thought you couldn't stand another minute of this long campaign year, already extended by the added day of a leap year, get ready to ring out the old with an added second.

The "leap second'' will be added at the end of the final hour of 2008 this evening by the keepers of the atomic clocks who last bestowed an extra second on our lives in 2005. Adjustments like this every few years not only keep us all in synch, but also add a precious few seconds to life over the long haul -- or make us younger when we pass?

So this evening, as you're counting down the New Year, be prepared to round it out with a jolly, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1...... 1..... Happy New Year!

by Mark Silva

None of Roland Burris' "people'' were successful at reaching any of Barack Obama's "people'' -- at least that's what the man appointed to replace the president-elect in the Senate, the former senator who maintains that the governor of Illinois has no business appointing anyone to replace him, says about all this.

Obama has spoken out quite plainly: He agrees with the Senate's Democratic leaders that Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich, accused by federal authorities of attempting to sell the seat of the former junior senator from Illinois elected to the presidency, should not be attempting to replace Obama. The Senate Democrats say they won't seat Blagojevich's appointee.

Enter Burris, a former state attorney general who ran for governor a few times -- even against Blagojevich -- and helped the governor raise money for his campaign, an official with a long and largely respected record of public service. Obama, the only black member of the Senate before election as the first African-American president, is maintaining in no ununcertain terms that Burris, the first black official elected statewide in Illinois, cannot succeed him -- not because of Burris's own profile, but because of Blagojevich's own problems.

"We certainly tried to reach out to him today,'' Burris said of Obama, during an appearance on The Rachel Maddow Show last night, "but I don't think my people were successful in reaching any of his people.''

Burris maintains that the governor's "problems'' should have no bearing on his own appointment to the Senate.

"All of the rest of this is the side drama of the governor's problems,'' he said in the MSNBC interview. "It has nothing to do with the qualifications of the individual or the dedication or the service of the individual, because I am in no way condoning anything that the governor has done.

"But what I perceive the governor is doing is saying it's his duty and it's really his responsibility, to have two senators representing the great state of Illinois, especially in these difficult times. And so, that was my judgment and decision after I counseled with a few of my supporters and friends, that, yes, should he appoint me, that I should accept it and hope and pray that the powers to be would recognize that there is a distinction between Blagojevich's problems and him carrying out his constitutional and legal duties as governor, which he is still doing.''

Here, courtesy of MSNBC, is a transcript of Maddow's interview with Burris:

Say goodnight to the year that was.

With a special thanks to all who stopped by here this year.

-- from Mark Silva, Frank James and all who toil in the Swamp.

by Peter Nicholas and updated

Fresh from his Hawaiian vacation, President-elect Barack Obama will leave behind his home and transition office in Chicago and make his move to Washington, D.C., this weekend.

But he won't be staying put for long.

Soon after he is sworn in Jan. 20, the new president is expected to travel outside of Washington to make the case for the massive stimulus package that he hopes will revive the weak economy.

Obama is coming to Washington a couple of weeks early to accommodate his two young daughters, who are to start school at the private Sidwell Friends in Washington next week.

The 44th president likely will be staying in a Washington hotel at least until Jan. 15 , when he moves into Blair House, the official residence for visiting dignitaries located across the street from the White House.

Obama had wanted to move up his stay at Blair House, but was told by the Bush White House that pre-scheduled receptions prevented him from moving in early.

"Tells you what a tony place it is - you can't get in!'' said David Axelrod, the president-elect's chief strategist.

The scheduling difficulties "are not a source of consternation'' for Obama, he added. "I'm confident he'll have a roof overhead.''

by Mark Silva

There may be more than a few complications with Gov. Rod Blagojevich's appointment of Roland Burris to the open Senate seat of President-elect Barack Obama:

1) The Senate's Democrats say they will refuse to seat Burris -- not because of anything wrong with the former state attorney general; to the contrary. It's not about Burris, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid says -- it's about Blagojevich, who is under arrest by federal authorities for allegedly trying to sell Obama's seat.

2) The Illinois secretary of state, Jesse White, says he will not certify the governor's appointment. So, if it is not duly certified, there really is no appointment.

This is the form the Senate requires in matters such as this:

CERTIFICATE OF APPOINTMENT
To the President of the Senate of the United States:

I__ J__,
Secretary of State.

3) The rest of the economy may be hurting, but a whole new raft of lawyers may have just found some gainful new employment.

by James Oliphant and updated

In a statement released minutes ago, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said Democrats would not allow Roland Burris, Gov. Rod Blagojevich's apparent choice as Illinois' next senator, to be seated as a member of the Senate.

Reid's statement makes good on a threat issued two weeks ago by the Democratic Caucus, which will hold a commanding majority in the new Senate, that anyone named by the embattled Illinois governor would not be allowed to take office. The U.S. Constitution arguably grants the Senate the power to bar Burris from assuming the position. However, in the past, that power has been used in the past only when the senator in question was elected through fraud or corruption.

In this case, there is no evidence that Burris, a former state attorney general, figured in any way in Blagojevich's alleged scheme to leverage Barack Obama's vacated Senate seat for personal gain. And Burris would be been appointed, not elected. But Reid said Tuesday that does not matter.

"It is truly regrettable that despite requests from all 50 Democratic Senators and public officials throughout Illinois, Gov. Blagojevich would take the imprudent step of appointing someone to the United States Senate who would serve under a shadow and be plagued by questions of impropriety," Reid said. "We say this without prejudice toward Roland Burris's ability, and we respect his years of public service. But this is not about Mr. Burris; it is about the integrity of a governor accused of attempting to sell this United States Senate seat. Under these circumstances, anyone appointed by Gov. Blagojevich cannot be an effective representative of the people of Illinois and, as we have said, will not be seated by the Democratic Caucus."

On Dec. 17, citing the threat from Senate Democrats, Blagojevich's lawyer, Ed Genson, said the governor would not be making an appointment. Blagojevich apparently did not receive that memo.

Blagojevich is set to announce the appointment of Burris this afternoon, according to the Chicago Tribune. The question now becomes whether Burris will accept the appointment, and then whether he would choose to somehow challenge the Senate action. An Illinois state legislative panel is also determining Tuesday whether to recommend the impeachment of Blagojevich.

UPDATE: According to a Republican source, a GOP senator could, theoretically, prevent Democrats from refusing to seat Burris, should it come to that. That's because a dispute could end up before the Senate Rules Committee, which would produce a resolution either accepting or rejecting Burris. That could mean a floor vote, which, under Senate rules, could be filibustered. Senate Democrats will not have the required 60 votes to override a filibuster.

Why would a Republican want to help Burris, a Democrat, end up in the Senate and give the Dems another vote? Hard to say. But a 71-year-old Blagojevich appointee with little statewide name recognition could make for a tempting opponent for Republicans when a election to fill the seat comes around in 2010.

by Mark Silva

For a president who achieved a record peak in public approval in the weeks following the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, George W. Bush's second-term slide has landed him in an equally historic position among modern-day presidents.

At the bottom.

"The president's approval ratings slid over time to historic lows,'' the Pew Research Center reports. "His approval last hit 50 percent as he started his second term. It stood at just 24 percent in early December.

In a Pew survey conducted Dec. 3-7 among 1,489 adults, Pew reports, "the public paints "a harshly negative picture of Bush's tenure. Nearly two-thirds (64 percent) say his administration will be remembered more for its failures than its accomplishments, and a plurality (34 percent) says Bush will go down in history as a poor president. Fully 68 percent say they disapprove of Bush's performance and most of those - 53 percent of the public - say they disapprove strongly.

"That is the highest rate of strong disapproval measured by Pew surveys in Bush's eight years in office,'' Pew notes.

"Just 11 percent said Bush will be remembered as an outstanding or above average president - by far the lowest positive end-of-term rating for any of the past four presidents. Yet Bush's impact on public opinion over the past eight years is seen in ways that go well beyond his personal unpopularity.

See the full report on Bush's decline at the Pew Center.

by Mark Silva

"Obama's Army'' remains on active reserve duty, according to the findings of a Pew Research Center survey.

And many of the troops are waiting for their text-message assignments.

Many of those who were active in the campaign of the president-elect "expect to remain engaged with the incoming Obama Administration and mobilize others in support of his agenda,'' Pew reports:

 62 percent of Obama voters expect that they will encourage others to support the new administration's policies during the upcoming year.

 48 percent expect to do so in person, 25 percent expect to do so over the phone, and 16 percent expect to promote the new president's agenda to others on the Internet.

 Among Obama voters who were involved online during the campaign, 25 percent say they plan to mobilize support for the administration's policies by using the Internet.

 Nearly half (46 percent) of all Obama voters expect to hear directly from the new president or other officials as the incoming administration takes office.

 34 percent of Obama-supporting email users expect direct email communication from the new administration.

 11 percent of cell-phone texters expect to receive text messages from the new administration.

"The election may be over, but these voters want to hear directly from their leaders and they hope to remain part of the action," says Aaron Smith, research specialist with the Pew Research Center's Internet and American Life Project. "They plan to be in direct contact with the administration and then carry those conversations back to their fellow citizens. This is a new kind of personal democracy."

The findings are based on a survey of 2,254 adults conducted between Nov. 20 and Dec. 4 and carries an overall margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points. Some 1,591 are Internet users, which makes their margin of error three points.

by Mark Silva

Has Barack Obama got game on the golf course?

It's hard to tell, standing back as far as the "protective pool'' does. But the reporters assigned to the president-elect's Hawaiian vacation have reported seeing the Illinoisan on the links. The report on at least one of Obama's putts was not so promising.

President Bush gave up golf - despite the fact that President Clinton planted one champion designer-green on the South Lawn of the White House (it's a hole in one from the Truman Balcony) - with the outgoing president suggesting that Americans didn't want to see their president teeing off while American men and women are at war.

President-elect Obama vows to end the war - at least the one in Iraq. So in the weeks before inauguration, he appears to be working on his game.

Obama "chafes under the constant gaze of the so-called 'protective pool,' the gaggle of media representatives allowed to follow his every move almost everywhere just in case, well, you can guess,'' as our colleague Andrew Malcolm at the Top of the Ticket notes. "It's, frankly, not the greatest duty for media folks either. You can spend seven hours waiting outside a house party sitting in a hot van and never see anything the officeholder is doing. Nothing to show for a day's 'work.'"

Here's a sampler from Monday's protective pool report of Obama's third round of vacation golf:

"At 5:37 p.m. the pool could see Obama get out of his golf cart and approach his ball located in the middle of the fairway on the 414 yard, par 4, 18th hole. He took three practice swings before centering the ball and hitting a shot that flew low and straight for about 75 yards before landing at the front, center-edge of the green.

"More than 100 people sitting on a rock wall along the fairway applauded as Obama approached and he put his gloved right hand to his mouth to signal for quiet, pointing to another member of his group who was getting ready to shoot. As he got close to his ball, (Obama) turned to the crowd and said 'Hey guys. That was pretty good right? That almost made up for my 20 yard drive.'

"That drew applause and laughter and prompted one member of the crowd to shout, 'Better than your bowling.'

Good morning,

It's a crystal clear and chilly morning in Washington.

Near the end of one of the biggest political years in modern times, it may be quiet here today, but on this day in history:

IIn 1922, The Union of the Soviet Socialist Republics was established through the confederation of Russia, Byelorussia, Ukraine, and Transcaucasian Federation.

The USSR is gone.

In 1940, California's first freeway opened.

U.S. highways need rebuilding.

In 1972, President Nixon halted the heavy bombing on North Vietnam.

In March, the war in Iraq will enter its seventh year.

by Mark Silva and updated with video

Sarah Palin: Hockey mom, and now grandma.

The boy's name is Tripp.

Bristol Palin,18, daughter of the Alaska governor who ran for vice president on the Republican Party's ticket this year, has given birth to a son.

Tripp Easton Mitchell Johnston weighed in at 7 pounds, 4 ounces on Saturday -- according to People magazine, which may well be one of the magazines that Grandma reads.

Relative Colleen Jones has told the magazine the baby is fine and Bristol is "doing well." Jones is the sister of Bristol's grandmother.

The father is Levi Johnston, a former hockey player at Alaska's Wasilla High School. He has said he and Bristol plan to marry. Together, the unwed couple with a baby on the way helped fill out the pastiche of a family with whom many Americans could identify.

Palin created a stir in September by announcing her daughter's pregnancy as she prepared to accept her nomination at the Republican National Convention.

But at this stage, the governor's office is calling the birth a private family matter.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

by Mark Silva

Before President-elect Barack Obama makes good on any New Year's resolution to give up smoking for good, the next commander-in-chief may want to consider the benefits of nicotine.

So says a health-blogger at the Wall Street Journal.

"With Barack Obama readying himself to take on what will be quite a high-stakes and stressful job, are we sure we actually want him to quit smoking?'' Sarah Rubenstein asks.

"We put in a call to Neal Benowitz of the University of California, San Francisco, an expert in nicotine addiction,'' she reports. "He told us that there is evidence that stopping smoking can cause irritability, slowed reaction time, or difficulty concentrating and solving problems. But that's typically in heavy smokers -- people who've smoked 10 or more cigarettes a day.''

There's little evidence that that occasional smokers like Obama, who has admitted to falling off the wagon once in a while, experience the same sorts of impairments without cigarettes, Benowitz told the Journal's Health Blog.

"I'm not so concerned about Obama," he said. "I'm sure there might be a time when he wants to sneak out to the Rose Garden and have a cigarette. I'm not really sure it helps him think better, but if he thinks that and it's an occasional cigarette, it's not going to do much to him."

So hold that resolution, perhaps -- 60 percent of all Americans surveyed say they won't be making any big changes next year.

And hold the ash trays - we don't want anyone setting the Rose Garden on fire either.

by James Oliphant

The leading Republican in the House, Rep. John Boehner, is beating the January rush and indicating some early opposition to President-elect Barack Obama's ever-growing economic stimulus plan.

Obama has called for a package that is likely to exceed $700 billion in an effort to revive the stalled economy. He hopes investment in rebuilding infrastructure and eco-friendly businesses will spark the creation or preservation of as many as three million jobs.

Boehner (R-Ohio), who will lead a diminished minority in the House after last fall's elections, doesn't sound ready to scale the package that large. In a statement released Monday, Boehner said:

"The American people are facing tough economic times, and they expect Washington to act - but we must act in a responsible way that helps get our economy moving again, not with more pork-barrel spending that does nothing but give taxpayers' money to special interests and campaign contributors. Republicans are prepared to work with the incoming Administration and with Democrats in Congress to craft legislation that will help our troubled economy."

"But now reports indicate that Congress may be asked to pass a bill spending as much as one trillion dollars of the taxpayers' money in January. If that is true, I hope that the Democratic Leadership will agree that such a massive piece of legislation should be debated in a fair, honest, and open way. To that end, I would ask the Democratic Leadership to guarantee that such a bill will not be brought to the floor of the House unless there have been public hearings in the appropriate committees, the entire text has been available online for the American people to review for at least one week, and it includes no special-interest earmarks."

"Polls show that the American people know that more irresponsible spending on government programs isn't what the economy needs. Now is the time for Democrats and Republicans to work together on reforms that will unleash America's economic potential and help our economy create jobs, and I hope President-elect Obama and the Democratic Leadership in Congress will keep their campaign promises to work with us in an open and bipartisan way."

Boehner is referring to a strategy often employed by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi that bypasses committee chairmen in favor of having House leadership assemble a bill and then present it to the chamber as a whole on the floor for a vote. However, Pelosi's office has said that several key committees will play prominent roles in crafting the stimulus plan. We'll see how it plays out when the curtain rises next week.

by James Oliphant

Rep. Rahm Emanuel will resign his House seat Friday.

Emanuel, set to serve as chief of staff to President-elect Barack Obama, sent a letter to Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich Monday indicating that he planned to step down at the end of the week. The new Congress will be sworn in on Jan. 6.

Unlike the case of Obama's vacated Senate seat, Blagojevich has no power to appoint Emanuel's replacement. Instead, state law gives Blagojevich five days to set a date for a special election to replace Emanuel once the seat is officially vacant. The election to fill the seat on Chicago's North Side must be held within 115 days. The governor will likely set a date for a primary election as well, although the state statute doesn't require that he do so.

Emanuel took a surprisingly personal tone in his missive to Blagojevich, considering the nature of his communication with the governor's office regarding Obama's successor has been the subject of intense scrutiny. "As sons of immigrants to this country," Emanuel wrote, "you and I have a deep appreciation for the opportunities America provides to those who are willing to work hard and sacrifice for their children."

In the letter, Emanuel made no reference to allegations that Blagojevich put Obama's Senate seat "up for sale" and made no suggestion that the governor should resign. Blagojevich, ironically, once held the same seat representing Illinois' 5th District.

A bevy of Chicago Democratic politicians have lined up to compete for Emanuel's seat.

Emanuel's staff said Monday that his offices in Chicago and Washington, D.C. will remain open following the congressman's departure to respond to constituents with questions or problems. Day-to-day management will be assumed by the House clerk's office.

by Mark Silva

The White House is again calling on Hamas to refrain from rocket attacks against Israeli territory that have prompted a massive retaliation by Israel forces in the Gaza Strip at a cost of many lives and dashed hopes for peace in the region.

"Last week, Hamas substantially increased its rocket and mortar attacks on the people of Israel,'' said Gordon Johndroe, deputy White House press secretary, in a statement delivered today from the "Crawford White House.'' The attacks, he said, underscore the administration's belief that Hamas is "a terrorist organization'' committed to the destruction of Israel.

President Bush, vacationing in Texas, is receiving daily briefings on the situation.

"In order for the violence to stop,'' Johndroe said, "Hamas must stop firing rockets into Israel and agree to accept a sustainable cease-fire.''

by Mark Silva

The ever-impartial folks over at Vanity Fair have rounded up some talking heads for an "oral history'' of the Bush administration.

And they have some fairly rough words for the retiring president.

Larry Wilkerson, the former assistant to Secretary of State Colin Powell who has been outspoken in his criticism of the Bush White House - particularly the hand that Vice President Dick Cheney has played - says former Deputy Secretary Richard Armitage called Cheney's office "the Gestapo,'' and says Powell's task was "cleaning the dog---- off the carpet in the Oval Office.''

This and more can be found in the February issue, with an article prepapred by Todd Purdum and Cullen Murphy, on sale New Year's Eve in New York and Los Angeles and Jan. 6 throughout the rest of the nation:

 John Bellinger III, legal adviser to the National Security Council and later to the secretary of state, says that "one of the great tragedies for this administration has been the damage caused by its detainee policies... The Justice Department really never lived up to its name.... It was often the Department of Litigation Risk."

 Joschka Fischer, German foreign minister and vice-chancellor, talks about how stunned the Germans were that the U.S. used their source (codename: "Curveball"), whom they were unsure about, as the single source for Powell's U.N. presentation about Iraq's alleged weapons of mass destruction: "I was astonished that the Americans used Curveball, really astonished. This was our stuff. But they presented it not in the way we knew it. They presented it as a fact, and not as the way an intelligence assessment is--could be, but could also be a big lie. We don't know."

 Bob Graham, retired Democratic senator from Florida and chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, says that one of our biggest challenges will be getting the rest of the world to trust the U.S. again: "One of our difficulties now is getting the rest of the world to accept our assessment of the seriousness of an issue, because they say, You screwed it up so badly with Iraq, why would we believe that you're any better today?"

 Mark McKinnon, chief campaign media adviser to Bush, calls the failure of immigration reform Bush's real regret: "Immigration was one of his most heartfelt issues.''

 Matthew Dowd, Bush pollster and chief strategist for the 2004 presidential campaign, contends that Karl Rove's strategy for winning was all about painting one side as good, the other as bad: "Karl wasn't receptive to ideas that would've called the country to certain things and brought them to a common purpose and a sense of shared sacrifice. Karl came from a perspective of: you defeat people in politics by calling one side bad and one side good."

According to Dowd, Vanity Fair reports, "The headline in [Bush's] presidency will be missed opportunity. That is the headline, ultimately. It's missed opportunity, missed opportunity."

by Mark Silva

People may be making some New Year's resolutions, but apparently relatively few are planning to turn over a new leaf in the looming new year.

That may have something to do with the fact that people who made big resolutions last year had trouble keeping them.

Only 40 percent report that it's very likely or somewhat likely that they will turn over that new leaf, while 60 percent say it's unlikely that they will pledge to making any change in 2009, a Marist Poll has found.

Losing weight is a perennial goal, of course - and 20 percent of Americans surveyed say they will vow to lose weight in the new year.

Shedding a bad habit or quitting smoking are among the leading hopes, as usual, but a new pledge has made the Top 3 this season, Marist reports: 12 percent say they will spend less money in 2009 - bumping the goal of "being a better person'' to lower on the list.

Now, 60 percent of Americans who did make a resolution last year kept their promise for at least part of the year, Marist notes. But 40 percent admit to failing to keep those resolutions.

The Marist survey of 1,003 Americans was run Dec. 9-10. The possible margin of error is 3 percent.

by Peter Nicholas

President-elect Barack Obama's top advisors say they won't back away from a promise to cut taxes on the middle class and raise them for the wealthiest Americans, as they made the case for a massive new stimulus package geared toward reviving the slumping economy.

Speaking on Sunday talk shows and in a newspaper opinion piece, Obama aides stepped up a drive to build a broad political consensus behind Obama's core economic proposals: a two-year spending package that could exceed $775 billion, coupled with tax policies weighted in favor of the middle class.

Appearing on NBC's Meet the Press, David Axelrod, a senior advisor to Obama, said, "We have to act. Every economist from left to right agrees that we have to do something big in terms of job creation, but we want to do it in a way that will leave a lasting footprint."

Obama wants lawmakers to give him a stimulus bill to sign soon after he is sworn in Jan. 20.

Writing Sunday in the Washington Post, Lawrence H. Summers, Obama's incoming director of the White House National Economic Council, said the bleak economic climate called for substantial new spending.

"Economic forecasts have been revised significantly downward over the past several months; today, many experts believe that unemployment could reach 10% by the end of next year," Summers wrote. As of November, unemployment stood at 6.7 percent.

Summers added: "In this crisis, doing too little poses a greater threat than doing too much."

See the rest of the report on Obama's plans for his promises from Tribune's Washington Bureau in the newspapers.

by Mark Silva

Is the New York Daily News attempting to "sandbag'' Caroline Kennedy with its transcriptual-reality reporting on the words of the woman seeking appointment to the U.S. Senate from New York?

""I'm really coming into this as somebody who isn't, you know, part of the system, who obviously, you know, stands for the values of, you know, the Democratic Party," Kennedy told the Daily News in one of the interviews that the daughter of President John F. Kennedy conducted with the media over the weekend.

"I know how important it is to, you know, to be my own person. And, you know, and that would be obviously true with my relationship with the mayor."

The Daily News' own columnist, Michael Goodwin, already is wishing Kennedy out of the running for Gov. David Paterson's appointment of a successor to Sen. Hillary Clinton, who will step aside to become secretary of state in the Obama administration, should the Senate confirm her, as expected. "Goodnight, Caroline,'' the columnist writes.

But News owner Mort Zuckerman insisted this morning that his paper is not "sandbagging'' Kennedy.

The candidate's words bear reporting, Zuckerman suggested in one of his frequent appearances on MSNBC's Morning Joe. He suggested that the interview was reminiscent of one that the candidate's uncle, Sen. Edward Kennedy of Massachusetts, gave to Roger Mudd in 1979 when the correspondent went asking why Kennedy should be president - he couldn't really articulate an answer.

by Mark Silva

Talk about honeymoons:

One in three Americans surveyed call President-elect Barack Obama the most admired man living anywhere in the world - ranking him atop the Gallup Poll's annual Most Admired Man List.

Couple this with the fact that Gallup's daily measure of public confidence in Obama's promise as president is holding steady at 66 percent through some rough times, and the incoming president would appear to be riding a wave of great expectations.

Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York, Obama's designee for Secretary of State, tops the Most Admired Woman List, albeit with a rating of 20 percent.

"No one comes close to matching Obama in percentage mentions on this year's list of most admired men, '' Gallup reports of the findings of its survey conducted Dec. 12-14. President Bush held a somewhat higher rating on this scale in the immediate aftermath of 9/11, but nothing close to Obama's standing before election.

By contrast, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin makes a strong showing in second place for Most Admired Woman, garnering 11 percent of all mentions,'' Gallup's Lydia Saad notes.

"The 32 percent of Americans naming Obama as the man they most admire is extraordinarily high, nearly matching the 39 percent of Americans who named George W. Bush in the immediate wake of the 9/11 attacks,'' she notes.

"At that time, Bush's presidential job approval rating was a soaring 86 percent. It is also higher than former presidents Bill Clinton and George H. W. Bush received in any of their appearances on Gallup's Most Admired Man list.

But Obama is the first president-elect since Dwight Eisenhower in 1952 to top the list. And he has done it with a runaway high figure. By comparison, Bush was named by just 5 percent of Americans in December of 2000. In December of 1992, President-elect Bill Clinton ranked second behind outgoing president George H.W. Bush, with 15 percent. And in 1988, then President-elect Bush achieved third place, with 9 percent.

President Bush is on vacation at his Texas ranch.

President-elect Barack Obama is on vacation in Hawaii.

Congress is in recess.

Although the comment has sometimes been attributed to Daniel Webster, it was a New York State judge who wrote,, in 1868: "No man's life, liberty or property is safe when the Legislature is in session.''

He didn't say anything about the stock market.

by Mark Silva

So, when the first lady says she wasn't amused by the shoes thrown at her husband in Baghdad a while back, but suggests that the gesture itself is a sign of how much freer Iraqis are now than they were under Saddam Hussein, what's the headline?

''First Lady: Shoe 'Assault' Shows Freedom in Iraq,'' reads the headline at FOX News.com, at the network that delivered the interview with First Lady Laura Bush on FOX News Sunday this morning.

"Laura Bush: 'Not amused' by Iraq shoe throw,'' reads the online headline at the Agence France Presse site.

There's probably a third headline in here somewhere, which is merely another sign of how free the press is to interpret the importance of the simplest of words.

And indeed, given the first lady's various words, this is our choice for a headline: President Bush ''doesn't feel sorry for himself very much.''

"Well, no, of course I wasn't amused,'' Bush told FOX's Chris Wallace iof the shoe-tossing in the interview aired today. "It was an assault. And that's what it is. And it would be an assault to anyone for -- if anybody had been there...

President Bush carried dog Barney as he arrived for his vacation with First Lady Laura Bush on Friday in Waco, Texas. AP Photo by Evan Vucci)

by Mark Silva

It could have been a certain candidate for vice president's inability to name any newspapers that she reads. Or it could have been those thousands of dollars of campaign-purchased designer-wear that the self-styled "soccer mom'' from Alaska wore on the campaign trail.

It could have been a winning candidate for president's portrayal of working class voters as "bitter,'' or the suggestion of this African-American candidate this his own beloved grandmother was "a typical white person.''

It could have been the Republican presidential nominee's admission, many months before claiming the party's nomination, that "the issue of economics is something that I've never really understood as well as I should,'' or his sudden "suspension'' of his campaign late in the contest to return to Washington to attend to an economic meltdown. David Letterman said it didn't meet "the smell test.''

It could have been the once-leading Democratic candidate's recollection of her landing in Bosnia under "sniper fire.'' Anyone can get tired campaigning late at night, her husband, the former president explained - raising certain questions about the way that "3 am telephone call'' might be handled at the White House.

Or perhaps it was the Beverly Hills reunion that a former presidential hopeful and former nominee for vice president had with the woman, a former campaign aide, with whom he had an affair while his wife was battling cancer.

Somewhere along the road to the White House, someone committed the "gaffe of the year'' in the campaign just concluded.

For the sake of the campaign cycle, we'll accept an extended period of time for that "year'' under consideration - reaching back to, say, April of 2007, when the eventual Republican nominee responded to a voter's question about sending "an airmail message'' to Iran with a whimsical recital of the Beach Boys' Barbara Ann... "Bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb...''

And we'll ask you, in the remaining days of this tumultuous year, to tell us how you rank the Top Five Gaffes of the Year. We offer these five for your consideration, and welcome your suggestions for any others, here in the Swamp. See our candidates below the fold, rank them, feel free to offer your own alternatives and come back on New Year's Day for a read-out on the year's rankings.

by Mark Silva

It may not be enough that Chip Saltsman, a candidate for chairman of the Republican National Committee, has recycled that bad Barack the Magic Negro tune in a CD of satirical songs that he has circulated to fellow Republicans. The tracks also include "The Star Spanglish Banner.''

Radio's Rush Limbaugh already has been raked over the politically correct coals for supporting the tasteless takeoff on Puff the Magic Dragon that plays on racial prejudices about Barack Obama, president-elect of the United States. But now Saltsman, courting support for the national party's chairmanship, has recycled the sad tune as part of a 41-tune CD of political songs by conservative satirist Paul Shanklin, as Politico.com tells the tale.

"Jose, can you see...

"Barack the magic Negro, lives in D.C...'' ("Close-captioned for the thinking -impaired.'')

You get the drift.

Party tactician Chip Saltsman sent an emailing to RNC members with an attachment of political songs by the satirist Shanklin, according to Politico. The 41-track CD entitlled We Hate the USA includes other songs lampooning liberals, according to The Hill, such as Wright Place, Wrong Pastor, Love Client #9 and The Star Spanglish Banner

. Saltsman was former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee's campaign manager during the 2008 presidential primaries.

RNC Chairman Mike Duncan, seeking another term as chairman of the national party, has blasted Saltsman's tactics in a statement released today, according to Politico.

"The 2008 election was a wake-up call for Republicans to reach out and bring more people into our party,'' Duncan says today. " I am shocked and appalled that anyone would think this is appropriate as it clearly does not move us in the right direction.''

Hear here. Wear where?

by Mark Silva

In that limited gene pool that has fueled American politics for several decades now - the Kennedy, Clinton and Bush clans - Caroline Kennedy maintains that she represents an "unconventional choice'' for the New York Senate seat of Hillary Clinton.

"I am an unconventional choice,'' the 51-year-old daughter of President John F. Kennedy told the Associated Press, in her debut on the "sit-down interview'' circuit as she seeks the seat that Clinton is forfeiting to serve as secretary of state for President-elect Barack Obama. "I understand that,'' Kennedy told the AP. "I haven't pursued the traditional path. But I think that in our public life today, we're starting to see there are many ways into public life and public service.''

She is a mother of three, an attorney, best-selling author and activist for education reform. Her children, she says, have been her highest priority for the past two decades. The nation's economic crisis, she says, will consume leaders for years.

"This is going to be a multiyear effort to fix this economic crisis. So in order to be effective, I would plan to stay at it," Kennedy said in an interview at the Gee Whiz diner not far from the World Trade Center in New York. "Between bites of a grilled cheese and bacon sandwich,'' the AP's Larry Neumeister reports, "Kennedy said the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks and her work for Barack Obama's presidential campaign inspired her to act on her public service impulses.''

She has asked New York Gov. David Paterson to appoint her to the Senate seat that Clinton will leave if she is confirmed as secretary of state. ""He encouraged me,'' she said. "He said he has a lot of qualified candidates.''

by Mark Silva

Doves were supposed to be flying at year's end in Israel, where leaders of the Israelis and Palestinians had joined President George W. Bush in making a dubious commitment to a framework for a peaceful, two-state solution by the end of Bush's term.

Instead, F-16s are flying over Gaza, where Israeli air strikes have taken a deadly toll on both Hamas security installations and civilians. This marks the deadliest raid since the Israeli occupation of the coastal region ended in 2005 - with more than 150 people dead. They include Tawfiq Jaber, chief of the Gaza police force, a security official has told Bloomberg News. And it's not over: The Israeli army vows the "operation will be continued, expanded and intensified as much as will be required.''

The attacks cap a week of rocket attacks, with doozens of Qassam rockets fired from Gaza into Israel following the expiration Dec. 19 of a six-month cease-fire between Israel and Hamas. Since the attacks, another Qassam rocket has struck Netivot, killing one woman, police report. At least three more have hit Ashkelon without injury.

The attacks will continue "as long as needed," Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak says today, warning that Israel faces a "test period that will neither be easy, nor short."

The Palestinian government has spoken out against the raids:

"President Mahmoud Abbas strongly condemns this harsh aggression that Israel is waging now against the Gaza Strip," says Nabil Abu Rudineh, a spokesman for the Palestinian Authority. "The president calls on the Israeli government to stop this aggression immediately and urges the international community to intervene."

And the Bush White House has spoken out as well, with National Security Council spokesman Gordon Johndroe calling on both Israel and Hamas to suspend hostilities that have shattered any illusions of peace at the start of a new year, and on the threshold of a new American administration which, once again, will confront one of the world's most irreconcilable conflicts.

Bush is on vacation at his Texas ranch, an event which often seems to coincide with the emergence of another crisis. His successor is on vacation in Hawaii.

And the Middle East has exploded once more.

Early in his first term, Bush spelled out a vision for two states, Israeli and Palestinian, living side by side in peace. But not until the latter part of his second term did the president begin to invest his own waning capital in the peace process. He had summoned a summit in Annapolis in November 2007 attended by Israeli, Palestinian and Arab leaders. It provided the stage for a public commitment to peace in one year.

Now, weeks before President-elect Barack Obama takes his oath of office, the Middle East presents American peace-brokers with a renewed but elusive challenge. So long as the missiles and F-16s are flying, any hope of peace is illusory..

Tribune wire services contributed.

by Mark Silva

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. -- Yes, Virginia, there is a Republican Party.

For all the celebration of the electoral landslide that will land President-elect Barack Obama in the White House in January - for all the victories won by Democrats in states that had not voted that way in many years (such as Virginia, North Carolina and Indiana), all three victories in the states where two-for-three is usually good enough (in Ohio, Pennsylvania and here in Florida) - the Republican Party has not been defeated.

Rather, it is in retreat.

For the moment, at this holiday lull between campaign and inaugural and legislative seasons, the best the party can offer is a firewall against the agenda of Obama and his party in the Senate, where the Democrats still stand shy of the 60 seats needed to overrule the opposition. That power was exerted in dramatic form earlier this month by Sen. Richard Shelby and friends, standing in the way of an auto-industry bailout that ultimately the White House had to handle - with a lame-duck President Bush relying on his own executive authority to carry out a bailout that his own party would not buy.

Fractured, but not defeated.

This party will regroup and rebuild in places such as Florida, where the former governor, Jeb Bush, is said to be giving serious consideration to seeking the open Senate seat of retiring Sen. Mel Martinez, an Orlando Republican who has fallen from favor and is stepping down in 2010 after only one term. The GOP will be particularly concerned about protecting that 40-vote firewall that Sen. Saxby Chambliss of Georgia vowed to maintain in his own hard-fought runoff reelection, and they can start here.

For anyone who has known Jeb Bush a long time, the thought of him even thinking of the Senate came as a surprise - he is the chief executive's chief executive, not the go-along, get-along sort of compromiser that life in a legislature requires. Yet anyone who has known him also knows that he takes his politics, and more importantly, public policy, seriously. He sees a certain void in his party at the moment: An absence of someone in Washington with a pulpit to advance the opposition's cause in a reasoned and methodical manner. It's said he will let everyone know his intentions in the New Year.

Should he run, it won't be a runaway contest. One of the state's leading Democrats, the elected Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink, also is eyeing the contest. Here in Florida, more than a few people would look at any contest between Sink and Bush as a rematch - her husband, Tampa attorney Bill McBride, challenged Bush in his reelection in 2002. McBride lost. Sink, a retired and successful banking executive, went on to win her own statewide office. She is undefeated - something that Bush cannot say (he lost his first bid for the governor's office, in 1994, to the incumbent Gov. Lawton Chiles.)

It may well take a Bush, however, or a popular Gov. Charlie Crist, to hold Florida's one Republican Senate seat in two years. It also could take a Sink to deny them.

In the meantime, the Republican Party stands in retreat - looking something like that sun over the far shore of the Ochlockonee River as it wends into the Gulf of Mexico, where the smoke of a slow, controlled burn in the Apalachicola Forest rises.

The GOP is going through that controlled burn at the moment.

But remember, Virginia, there still is a Republican Party.

by Frank James

Say what you will about Eartha Kitt, the American original of a performer who died at 81 on Christmas Day, she certainly knew how to disrupt a White House event.

One of the best Kitt stories ever has to be how she gave First Lady Lady Bird Johnson the blues in 1968. A petite woman, Kitt had an out-sized ego and just as sizable chip on her shoulder, the latter the result of an unhappy childhood she often talked of (a biracial child born out of wedlock in 1927 small-town South Carolina. You get the picture.)

The White House story was captured by David Murphy in a biography of Mrs. Johnson called "Texas Bluebonnet: Lady Bird Johnson."

As the president was contemplating his future, Lady Bird went on with her official duties and hosted a Women Doers lunch on Jan. 18, 1968 that was to focus on crime. Singer and actress Eartha Kitt was invited upon the recommendation of Sharon Francis and Liz Carpenter since Kitt had testified to Congress in favor of the President's anti-crime legislation. When President Johnson entered the room, Kitt confronted him, "Mr. President, what do you do about delinquent parents, those who have to work and are too busy to look after their children?" He told her that Social Security legislation was just passed that provided millions of dollars for daycare centers. Kitt was not pleased but Johnson told her those were issues for the women to discuss at the lunch.

During the question period, Kitt stood up and confronted Lady Bird, "Boys I know across the nation feel it doesn't pay to be a good guy." She moved into (sic) closer to the First Lady and said that boys don't want to behave for fear of being sent to Vietnam saying, "You are a mother too though you have had daughters and not sons. I am a mother and I know the feeling of having a baby come out of my guts. I have a baby and then you send him off to war. No wonder the kids rebel and take pot. And Mrs. Johnson, in case you don't understand the lingo, that's marijuana.

By John McCormick

HONOLULU - President-elect Barack Obama is using his holiday radio address to remember the nation's troops serving overseas and those at home struggling amid a troubled economy.

"Many troops are serving their second, third, or even fourth tour of duty," Obama says in a recording scheduled to air on radio stations on Saturday. "This holiday season, their families celebrate with a joy that is muted knowing that a loved one is absent and sometimes in danger."

Obama, who is vacationing on his native island of Oahu, also talks about the missed memories of those away from home.

"In towns and cities across America, there is an empty seat at the dinner table," he says. "In distant bases and on ships at sea, our servicemen and women can only wonder at the look on their child's face as they open a gift back home."

With a weak economy, Obama says there is a need for collective sacrifice.

"That is why this season of giving should also be a time to renew a sense of common purpose and shared citizenship," he says. "Now, more than ever, we must rededicate ourselves to the notion that we share a common destiny as Americans."

Obama says that is the spirit that will guide his administration.

"If the American people come together and put their shoulder to the wheel of history, then I know that we can put our people back to work and point our country in a new direction," he says. "That is how we will see ourselves through this time of crisis, and reach the promise of a brighter day."

The full-text of Obama's radio address is below the jump.

by Frank James

The Obama transition team report on its contacts with Gov. Rod Blagojevich' or the governors' office has been released and, as has been telegraphed for days by the Obama team, it exonerates President-elect Obama and his aides from the pay-to-play scandal surrounding the governor.

One of the report's key passages asserts:

The accounts support your statement on December 11, 2008 that you "have never spoken to the Governor on this subject [or] about these issues," and that you "had no contact with the
Governor's office." In addition, the accounts contain no indication of inappropriate discussions
with the Governor or anyone from his office about a "deal" or a quid pro quo arrangement in
which he would receive a personal benefit in return for any specific appointment to fill the
vacancy.

One member of the transition staff, Rahm Emanuel, did have contacts of the type covered by
your request. I discuss the nature of those contacts in the attached report. David Axelrod and
Valerie Jarrett, two other individuals on the transition staff, did not have any contacts with the
Governor or his office but are included in the report to address questions raised by the press.

by Frank James

The Muslim Public Affairs Council has clued us in to where to find the video of Rev. Rick Warren's speech last weekend to the organization, a response to critics opposed to President-elect Barack Obama choice of Warren to deliver the invocation at his inauguration.

It's worth watching to get the full context of Warren's remarks and to study his laid back, conversational approach to speechmaking which is quite entertaining and effective. Small wonder he's one of the nation's most successful evangelical preachers.

by Frank James

Montgomery County, Md., just outside the nation's capital, is home to many of Washington's movers and shakers and has some of the toniest suburbs in the country.

Its scenic River Road is one of the main roads many of those powerful Washington types take to get from their expensive homes to work.

So it was a bit of a shock to many in that part of the Washington metropolitan area when River Road actually became a river after a water main developed a 66-inch break, likely the result of temperatures in the teens which the area has experienced in recent days.

The break stranded several motorists and necessitated some rescues by helicopter and fast-water boats.

by Frank James

The brother of the Iraqi journalist who threw his shoes at President Bush says his brother would assault the president again if he had the chance. Fortunately, he's not likely to get another opportunity.

Uday al-Zeidi made the claim in an interview. We sure hope for the sake of jailed journalist Muntada al-Zeidi that this isn't a case of sibling-rivalry induced sabotage and that what the shoe-throwing brother is actually saying is accurately reflected by his interview-giving brother since these incendiary statements are only likely to cause more trouble for the world's most famous, shoe-hurling journalist.

by Jill Zuckman and John McCormick

WASHINGTON - Vice President-elect Joe Biden said Tuesday that a report due out this afternoon will show "no inappropriate contact" between Barack Obama's presidential transition team and Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich.

Blagojevich has been accused of putting Obama's Illinois Senate seat up for sale to the highest bidder, as well as putting a price tag on other state government appointments and services.

"I don't think there is anything to exonerate," Biden told reporters following an economic briefing. He said the report will show "there has been no inappropriate contact between any member of the Obama staff or transition team with Blagojevich."

Obama told his staff to review all internal contacts with Blagojevich and his staff, which is scheduled to be released late this afternoon while the president-elect is vacationing in Hawaii.

Obama has said he was eager to release the report, but was asked not to do so by federal prosecutors.

"It's a little bit frustrating," he said last week. "There's been a lot of speculation in the press that I would love to correct immediately...By next week you guys will have the answers to all your questions."

by Frank James

Photos of President-elect Barack Obama on his Hawaiian vacation are probably causing a lot of people to promise themselves that they will return to the treadmill to burn off more calories. That is, just as soon as the holiday season is over. Those daily gym sessions are clearly having the desired effect.

The Daily Mail, a British newspaper, has a story with more pictures and a great headline: "Obama shows off his war chest..."

by Frank James

Former comedian Al Franken has a negligible 48-vote lead over incumbent Sen. Norm Coleman in the contest for the Senate seat from Minnesota. He had led by about 250 votes at the end of last week.

If those election lawyers up there are billing by the hour, this should have a very good Christmas, at least for them.

As the Minneapolis Star Tribune reports, both sides still have plenty to fight over and the recount's outcome is far from certain, including the final disposition of 1,500 absentee ballots.

The only thing that appears safe to say is the counting will stop New Year's Eve because that's when the Minnesota Supreme Court said it would.

by Frank James

They're really pretty touchy over there at the White House as Bush's team does some last-minute polishing of their boss's legacy before the moving trucks show up.

I'm just getting around to Dana Perino's defense of President Bush against the New York Times's lengthy piece Sunday which examined how Bush's "ownership society" agenda mixed with his deregulatory bent contributed to the housing meltdown.

She has a number of complaints. At the top of her list, she says the reporters started out with a thesis and then tailored their reporting to fit, ignoring unsupportive facts.

The Times' 'reporting' in this story amounted to finding selected quotes to support a story the reporters fully intended to write from the onset, while disregarding anything that didn't fit their point of view.

Actually, that's the way a lot of reporting gets done and there's nothing wrong with it.

Reporters often will get an idea, typically based on some tantalizing notion they've come across in their reporting, then make some preliminary calls to see if there's enough there to pitch a story to an editor and then deliver the goods.

Or editors will assign a story idea and reporters will similarly do some early reporting to see if the idea pans out.

Once preliminary reporting supports that there's really a story, reporters then proceed to gather further material to fill out the story they've promised their editors.

If a lot of sources tell you you're wrong, obviously you have to take that into account and either recast the story or spike it.

by Frank James

Utah's population grew the fastest of all states in the 12 months which ended July 1, 2008, according to the U.S. Census Bureau, partly because it's in a region -- the west -- which generally leads the nation in population growth.

No, it had nothing to do with polygamy, which isn't a mainstream Mormon practice anyway. Beehive State demographers have credited the state's surging population in recent years to the availability of jobs there.

But as the recession bites down harder on the national economy, Utah will likely lose some of its attraction as a job magnet.

Not surprisingly, Michigan and Rhode Island, two states whose job markets were relatively moribund even before the recession hit a year ago, were the only states to lose population in the year ending in July as people left to search for better opportunities.

Here's how the Census Bureau reported on its new data:

Utah was the nation's fastest-growing state between July 1, 2007, and July 1, 2008, as its population climbed 2.5 percent to 2.7 million, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Census Bureau.

Texas gained more people than any other state between July 1, 2007, and July 1, 2008 (484,000), followed by California (379,000), North Carolina (181,000), Georgia (162,000) and Arizona (147,000).

by Frank James

Much of the opposition to the federal bailout of the Detroit Three automakers was premised on the notion that the U.S. automakers did themselves in through decades of bad management and greedy unions.

So it will be interesting to see what adjustments, if any, the bailout's opponents make to their views in light of the wrenching news today that Toyota Motor Corp., by all accounts one of the world's best-managed auto makers, reported that it's projecting it will have its first operating loss since the Tora, Tora, Tora year of 1941 (or 1938 depending on which loss definition is used.) What's more, its chief executive sounds very anxious about next year.

An excerpt from the Associated Press:

NAGOYA, Japan (AP) -- Toyota Motor Corp. projected its first-ever operating loss since it began such reports, acknowledging Monday that its nine-year stretch of global vehicle-sales growth had stalled.

"The tough times are hitting us far faster, wider and deeper than expected," he told reporters at Toyota's Nagoya office. "This is an unprecedented crisis requiring urgent action."

by Frank James

Bernard Madoff, Wall Street's alleged Ponzi king, made political donations to Washington types which evidently bought him some access in here.

But it appears he had a light footprint in the nation's capital and I haven't seen a story yet that indicates his money (or his clients' money perhaps) was able to buy him anything more than a returned phone call or invitation to appear at a hearing. Not saying that it didn't. Just haven't seen any evidence of that.

As Andy Zajac and Janet Hook of the Tribune's Washington D.C. bureau reported:

... For years, Madoff was a generous political donor to mostly Democratic causes and maintained a steady lobbying presence through the government relations firm of a former New York congressman.

"It's a bit odd," Baker said. "I was a big player on market data fees and electronic exchanges"--two of the issues that Madoff's lobbying firm, Lent Scrivner & Roth, listed as advocating on for the New York mogul. "I don't remember having a visit or a discussion on these matters with the firm."

by Frank James

It appears that a lot of money gets thrown at top bankers in good and bad times. Some Associated Press reporters examined the Securities and Exchange Commission filings of banks that received federal bailout money from the $700 billion Trouble Asset Relief Program.

An excerpt of what they found:

Banks that have their hands out in Washington this year were handing out multimillion-dollar rewards to their executives last year.

Some banks trimmed their executive compensation in the face of faltering performance that foreshadowed the current economic crisis, but they still granted multimillion-dollar packages. Benefits included cash bonuses, stock options, personal use of company jets and chauffeurs, home security, country club memberships and professional money management, the AP review of federal securities documents found.

Gov. Rod Blagojevich marches in the Indian community's Independence Day parade on Devon Avenue Aug. 16, 2003, in Chicago, with Raghuveer Nayak on his immediate left. (Alex Garcia/Chicago Tribune)..

by Frank James

We now know the Identity of the Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. ally who mentioned in the federal criminal complaint against Gov. Rod Blagojevich as a Jackson "emissary" though the congressman has denied authorizing anyone to approach the governor about the vacant U.S. Senate seat. It's not exactly a household name.

According to a story by Chicago Tribune reporters David Kidwell and John Chase:

A key figure in Gov. Rod Blagojevich's alleged scheme to sell a U.S. Senate seat has sought immunity from federal authorities in return for his cooperation in their ongoing probe, the Tribune has learned.

Raghuveer P. Nayak, an Oak Brook businessman and political fundraiser, is the unnamed "Individual D" who prosecutors say was being squeezed by the governor for campaign cash in return for appointing U.S. Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. to the Senate seat vacated by President-elect Barack Obama, sources said.

by Frank James

Rev. Rick Warren of Saddleback Church defended himself against criticism that President-elect Barack Obama shouldn't have chosen him to deliver the invocation at his inaugural next month, saying he's not anti-gay.

An excerpt from the Associated Press:

LONG BEACH, Calif. (AP) -- Under fire for opposing gay marriage, influential evangelical pastor Rick Warren said Saturday that he loves Muslims, people of other religions, Republicans and Democrats, and he also loves "gays and straights."

"You don't have to see eye to eye to walk hand in hand," said Warren.

by Frank James

George Stephanopoulos broke some news today when he reported that his former fellow Clinton White House colleague Rahm Emanuel was cleared by an investigation by Greg Craig, the former Clinton White House lawyer, into contacts the Obama transition team had with Gov. Rod Blagojevich's office (so far as we know Blago had no role in the Clinton Administration even though the former president and Blago both have a thing for Elvis, thank you very much.)

As Stephanopoulos reports in his blog (he also said this on "This Week" this morning:

Sources tell me that the Obama team's review of contacts with Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich will show that Rahm Emanuel had only one phone conversation with Blagojevich.

The contact, described as a "pro-forma" courtesy call, came as Emanuel was named Chief of Staff for Obama. Most of the discussion concerned Emanuel's Congressional seat (which had previously been held by Blagojevich), with only a "passing reference" to the Senate vacancy, according to these sources. No deal for the Senate vacancy was discussed.

by Frank James

The Bush Administration once again comes off looking poorly in the latest installment of the New York Times series called "The Reckoning" for pouring fuel on the raging fire that was the housing bubble, then waiting to long to mount a serious and effective effort to put the fire out.

In a lengthy report, the NYT recounts how home ownership was an important piece of President Bush's "ownership society" agenda which, when mixed with his anti-regulatory ideology, created a witches' brew of too few regulators and regulations watching over too much credit sloshing through superheated financial markets.

An excerpt:

There are plenty of culprits, like lenders who peddled easy credit, consumers who took on mortgages they could not afford and Wall Street chieftains who loaded up on mortgage-backed securities without regard to the risk.

But the story of how we got here is partly one of Mr. Bush's own making, according to a review of his tenure that included interviews with dozens of current and former administration officials.

by Frank James

Paul Krugman is one of the smartest, most entertaining economists alive which explains why he may the best known too,

The New York Times columnist and Princeton University professor appeared at the National Press Club in Washington Friday, fresh on the heels of receiving his Nobel Prize. And he simultaneously scared the audience out of its wits and left them laughing and wanting more, not a bad achievement for a practitioner of the dismal science.

A few important Krugman points:

The stimulus is going to have to be extremely big to work. It takes about $200 billion of well-spent federal stimulus to drop unemployment one percentage point. He thinks unemployment could hit 10 percent before things turn around. So that argues for a $1 trillion stimulus not over two years but faster.

The problem is, President-elect Obama talks about the money going to shovel-ready infrastructure projects. But the best number Krugman has heard puts the amount of such projects that could be quickly started at something like $150 billion, far short of what's needed. That's a big problem, especially since he argues the stimulus must be done quickly.

Krugman worries about what part of the economy will kick in to take up the slack after the stimulus. That's very unclear.

Krugman believes 2010 will see improved economic conditions as the stimulus workes its way through. But 2009 scares him. And if he's scared, I'm scared too.

By John McCormick

HONOLULU - President-elect Barack Obama has landed here after departing Chicago this morning. He and his family are starting a 12-night vacation on the island of Oahu, where Obama was born and spent virtually all of his youth.

Airport workers waved from the tarmac as the president-elect, his wife, Michelle, and daughters Sasha and Malia stepped off the plane. Obama carried two of his own bags off the plane following the roughly nine-hour trip.

Unlike previous visits to Hawaii by Obama, this one did not appear to be carried live by local television stations.

by Frank James

One of the best journalistic descriptions of the rescue package for the Detroit Three car makers announced by President Bush yesterday comes from American Public Radio's business and economic news program "Marketplace."

If U.S. automakers were dangling from the ledge of a fifth-story window by one hand yesterday, today they pulled both hands back onto that ledge. Uncle Sam came to the rescue not with a ladder but with an energy drink. And Detroit is still just barely hanging on.

That's a great visual. Pretty accurate too.

by Frank James

If politics were a beach, President-elect Barack Obama would be kicking a little Al Gore sand onto President Bush today.

In his Saturday web address to the nation, the next president, in announcing the completion of his White House science team, says his administration will be marked by a respect for scientific inquiry even when the truths it reveals are "inconvenient."

Obama said in part:

Because the truth is that promoting science isn't just about providing resources--it's about protecting free and open inquiry. It's about ensuring that facts and evidence are never twisted or obscured by politics or ideology. It's about listening to what our scientists have to say, even when it's inconvenient--especially when it's inconvenient. Because the highest purpose of science is the search for knowledge, truth and a greater understanding of the world around us. That will be my goal as President of the United States--and I could not have a better team to guide me in this work.

Former Vice President Gore has spent recent years castigating Bush and his administration for ignoring scientific results that didn't fit with their conservative worldview, a critique that culminated in Gore's Oscar-winning movie "An Inconvenient Truth" and in his winning a Nobel Prize.

It was a criticism made by many others that appeared to be borne out by reporting by journalists.

Those days are over, Obama was essentially saying.

DC Inauguration Video 121808 from Daniel R. Odio on Vimeo.

by Frank James

Smartphone owners intending to visit Washington for the Obama inaugural (that probably narrows the field of all inauguration visitors to around one million people right there) may want to check out a free phone application I just learned about.

Using your phone's GPS functionality, the ap allows visitors to navigate around the nation's capital by foot or Metro train, make restaurant reservations, find free-wifi locations, know where they are in relation to inaugural parties, the whole shebang,

The ap's creators also envision adding functions in time for the inauguration to alert users to where longest waiting times are so they can avoid crowds at museums etc, or report on emergencies. And they hope to include a feature that will let people submit and read each others' reviews of restaurants, bars etc.

The ap comes courtesy of Qorvis, the public-relations firm; Patton Boggs, the law firm, and PointAbout, a software maker. For them, it represents an excellent opportunity to get their brands in front of potentially hundreds of thousands of visitors to the city.

by Jim Tankersley

Barack Obama is done appointing his Cabinet. Now come the questions.

The Senate Environment and Natural Resources Committee announced today it will dive into confirmation hearings on Energy Secretary nominee Steven Chu and Interior Secretary nominee Ken Salazar. Chu's is scheduled for Jan. 13, a week after newly elected senators take office. Salazar's follows two days later.

Chu is a Nobel-winning physicist who directs the Lawrence Berkeley National Labratory. Salazar is a senator from Colorado and, technically, a member of the committee that will conduct his confirmation hearing. If you like the "Six Degrees" game, here's a quick academic link between the nominees: Chu is on extended leave from a professorship at Stanford University. One of Salazar's daughters is a Stanford undergraduate.

The committee press release hints at a fairly smooth ride for both men.

by Frank James

President-elect Barack Obama welcomed President Bush's decision to approve a $17.4 billion bailout for the Detroit Three automakers but warned the companies that the American people's patience was running low and urged them not to waste the grace time they've received to restructure their businesses in order to avoid bankruptcy.

In his last press conference before heading to Hawaii for the Christmas holidays, Obama also indicated that his planned economic stimulus would be massive as has been rumored.

Though he declined to name a dollar figure, the president-elect didn't deny reports that it could be as much as $1 trillion. Acknowledging that the amounts being contemplated were enough to raise the concerns of taxpayers, including himself, he said he was struck by the consensus of economists that a stimulus had to be "bold" to be effective and was the priority, given the economy's deteriorating condition.

As he spoke with reporters, Obama was accompanied by some of the last members of his cabinet to be named, House members Hilda Solis, a California Democrat, and Ray LaHood, an Illinois Republican, who were named to head the Labor and Transportation departments, respectively.

Obama also named Ron Kirk, Dallas's former mayor, to be U.S. Trade Representative and Karen Mills, a Maine venture capitalist, to head the Small Business Administration.

In discussing the auto bailout, Obama never mentioned Bush. It was a noticeable omission, especially since the president has said specifically that one of the reasons he decided to approve spending money out of the $700 billion bank rescue fund was so Obama wouldn't be greeted on his first day of office with the collapse of the auto industry.

Obama seemed intent on sending a signal to auto makers that they should not delay making any hard choices in the hope of getting better terms from his incoming administration.

And in a nod to the organized labor members in his Democratic party base, he emphasized that he wanted all of the auto makers' stakeholders -- management, labor, suppliers, creditors and bondholders -- to bear the pain of the expected restructurings. The president-elect made clear that he would find unacceptable any package of concessions that required relatively more from labor than from other stakeholders.

"I do want to emphasize to the big three automakers and their executives that the Americans -- people's patience is running out, and that they should seize on this opportunity over the next several weeks and months to come up with a plan that is sustainable," Obama said. "And that means that they're going to have to make some hard choices."

by Frank James

The Minneapolis Star Tribune has a useful widget on its website which provides the latest vote count in the Senate race between Republican incumbent Sen. Norm Coleman and challenger, Al Franken, the former comedian.

The current count has Franken leading by 266 votes, the first time he's been ahead. Franken received a boost yesterday when a court ruled that contested absentee votes had to be counted.

Just a few days ago it looked like Coleman would hang on to win. Now it's anyone's guess.

by Frank James

Not surprisingly, reports are that the journalist who threw his shoes at President Bush's head last weekend in Baghdad was beaten.

The judge who visited Muntadhar al-Zeidi said he bore signs of being beaten.

Olivier Knox, a journalist with Agence Presse France who was at the press conference where the shoe-throwing took place, said on public radio's Diane Rehm Show this morning that he saw blood on the floor at the place where al-Zeidi was pounced on by the Secret Service and Iraqi security. He assumed it was al-Zeidi's.

Knox also said that in talking to people in the White House he learned that the Secret Service had noticed al-Zeidi acting suspiciously beforehand -- not taking notes, fidgeting and repeatedly stealing glances at security officials. The Secret Service wanted to station an agent in the aisle next to al-Zeidi, Knox said. But Iraqi security vetoed that idea.

Here's an excerpt of an Associated Press story:

BAGHDAD (AP) -- The Iraqi journalist who threw his shoes at President George W. Bush during a news conference was beaten and had bruises around his eyes and other parts of his face, a judge said Friday.

Judge Dhia al-Kinani, the magistrate investigating the incident, said the court has opened a probe into the alleged beating of journalist Muntadhar al-Zeidi during the news conference.

The helmet camera of astronaut Heidemarie Stefanyshyn-Piper shows her tool bag as it floats away from the International Space Station. She lost hold of it when when a grease gun inside it exploded. NASA/Associate Press.

by Frank James

Who knew that with a pair of binoculars you could see a tool bag flying through space in earth orbit? And this tool bag is turning out to be for NASA what the $400 hammer was to Pentagon as a symbol of insane overspending by a government agency.

Because this tool bag with a few commonplace tools in it cost NASA $100,000.

Mark Matthews and Robert Block of the Tribune write about how NASA spending ways are being examined by Obama's transition team as a way to try and get some of those cost cuts the president-elect is looking for in order to help pay for his health-care plan.

Most nights it's possible to look skyward with a pair of cheap binoculars and see a $100,000 mistake circling the Earth. The glowing object -- an orbiting NASA tool bag -- was lost last month by an astronaut during a routine spacewalk.

Of 74 questions submitted to the agency by Obama's NASA transition team, more than half asked about basic spending issues, including cost overruns.

President George W. Bush pauses during a statement on the auto industry at the White House on Friday, December 19, 2008 in Washington. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)

by Frank James

President Bush has decided to bailout the Detroit Three automakers with a $17.4 billion rescue package of bridge loans to give the struggling automakers more breathing room to restructure and to avoid a collapse that some had warned could come early next year if they received no help.

In doing so, the president rejected the idea that had been discussed in recent days of a so-called structured bankruptcy for the auto industry, at least for now.

Bush explained that even a structured bankruptcy might send the auto makers into a unstoppable death spiral because of their weakened state and likely increased consumer unwillingness to buy their products.

But the president made it clear that the bridge loans were coming with tough terms. He said the automakers needed to submit workable plans for restructuring by March 31 and that if they didn't the federal government would require its loans to be repaid immediately.

In addition, he said his administration expected all the auto industry players -- management, creditors, dealers, workers and bondholders -- to make significant concessions in order to make the rescue work.

In announcing the bailout, Bush echoed comments he made during an interview at the American Enterprise Institute yesterday when he said the perilous state of the economy argued against allowing the companies to go bankrupt, even though he remains a stalwart believer in free-market capitalism.

Speaking from the White House West Wing's Roosevelt Room this morning, he said:

"If we were to allow the free-market to take it's course now, it would almost certainly result in a disorderly bankruptcy and liquidation for the automakers. Under ordinary economic circumstances, I would say 'This is the price that failed companies must pay.' I would not favor intervening to prevent the automakers from going out of business."

"But these are not ordinary circumstances. In the midst of a financial crisis and a recession, allowing the U.S. auto industry to collapse is not a responsible course of action. The question is how we can best give it a chance to succeed.

Mark Felt appears on CBS' "Face the Nation" in Washington on Aug. 30, 1976. Felt was the source identified for years only as "Deep Throat" in the Washington Post's reporting on the Watergate scandal. (AP / August 30, 1976)

by Frank James

We're all learning this morning of the death, at age 95, of W. Mark Felt, who as a senior Federal Bureau of Investigation official, served as the shadowy source known as "Deep Throat" to reporter Bob Woodward in his investigation of the Watergate scandal that led to President Nixon's resignation.

As Johanna Neuman writes in a Los Angeles Times piece:

A controversial figure who was later convicted of authorizing illegal activities in pursuit of members of the radical Weather Underground, Felt died of heart failure Thursday at his home in Santa Rosa, Calif., his grandson Rob Jones said.

The reporters continued to keep Felt's name a secret, but in 2005, at the age of 91, Felt told Vanity Fair magazine, "I'm the guy they used to call Deep Throat."

Paul Weyrich prepares to chair a Free Congress Foundation meeting, November 14, 2007, in Washington, D.C. (Andrew Councill/MCT)

by Frank James

Paul Weyrich, one of the best-known leaders of the conservative movement, died this morning at age 66 from an undisclosed cause.

He was a co-founder of the Heritage Foundation, one of the most influential think tanks in the nation's capital.

Heritage has a tribute on its website with a number of eulogies from many well-known congressional Republicans.

Weyrich also founded the Free Congress Foundation, a think tank aimed at advancing conservative positions on cultural issues.

by Frank James

Rep. Hilda Solis of the Los Angeles-area is reportedly President-elect Barack Obama's choice for Labor Department secretary and the raves are coming in.

Labor likes her a lot (no surprise there. A pick this important would have been run by organized labor beforehand.) Here's a statement from AFL-CIO president John Sweeney:

We're thrilled at the prospect of having Rep. Hilda Solis as our nation's next labor secretary. We're confident that she will return to the labor department one of its core missions - - to defend workers' basic rights in our nation's workplaces. She's proven to be a passionate leader and advocate for all working families - - in fact, she's voted with working men and women 97 percent of the time. The AFL-CIO looks forward to working with Rep. Solis as she charts new territory for our nation's working men and women.

Andy Stern of the Service Employees International Union or SEIU had this to say:

"As someone who has pounded the pavement knocking on doors for Hilda Solis in her first upset campaign in California, I can tell you firsthand that this woman is about opening doors for millions of Americans who get up and go to work each day.

by Frank James

President Bush suggested strongly that billions of dollars in help for the auto industry would be forthcoming from the White House in the near future, saying in part that he felt obliged not to leave President-elect Barack Obama an acute economic disaster like a newly collapsed auto industry after the inauguration.

"I thought about what it would be like for me to become president during this period. I believe that good policy is not to dump on him a major catastrophe on his first day of office," Bush said.

Bush made his auto-industry comments during a wide-ranging interview on friendly turf, the conservative American Enterprise Institute. The session was billed by the White House as another chance for Bush to justify an often controversial presidency and legacy as he prepares to leave office in just over a month.

The president repeatedly emphasized to his conservative audience that he still shared their faith in free-market capitalism and said that in ordinary times he would be inclined to let the economy sort out its current problems on its own.

"This is a difficult time for a free-market person," Bush said. "Under ordinary circumstance, failing entities should be allowed to fail. I have concluded these are not ordinary circumstances."

by Andrew Zajac

The William J. Clinton Foundation this morning posted a list of donors who have given nearly $500 million to the ex-president's charity.

As expected, there are large dollops of money from China, India and various countries in the Middle East, setting the stage for further discusssion about whether Hillary Clinton can be an honest broker in global hot spots where one side or other has contributed to her husband's foundation.

by Frank James

At his press conference this morning, President-elect Barack Obama addressed the criticism of his liberal supporters who are outraged that he asked well-known evangelical preacher Rick Warren of Saddleback Church in Lake Forest, Calif, to deliver the invocation at his inaugural.

OBAMA: It is important for America to come together, even though we may have disagreements on certain social issues.

Because that's what America is about. That's the (inaudible) and the magic of this country is that we are diverse and noisy and opinionated. And so that's the spirit in which we have put together what I think will be a terrific inauguration.