by Frank James
One argument against giving the Detroit Three a taxpayer-funded bridge loan went something like this: taxpayers shouldn't have to pay for the failings of the the automakers. If the companies had to resort to bankruptcy to restructure, so be it.
But what that argument didn't take into account was that U.S. taxpayers are going to wind up financially helping autoworkers and employees at the companies that supply them one way or another and whether they like it or not.
The proof of that is found in a New York Times story which reports that states are running out of money to pay unemployment insurance because of all the claims being made by laid off workers. According to the NYT story, Michigan and Indiana's unemployment insurance funds have essentially run out of money.
Thirty states are at risk of having the funds that pay out unemployment benefits become insolvent over the next few months, according to the National Association of State Workforce Agencies. Funds in two states, Indiana and Michigan, have already dried up, and both states are borrowing from the federal government to make payments to the unemployed.
Unemployment taxes are collected by states from employers, but the rate varies from state to state per employee. In good times states build up trust funds so that when unemployment is high there is enough money to cover the requests for benefits, which are guaranteed by the federal government.
"You don't expect the loans to happen this early in a jobs slump," said Andrew Stettner, the deputy director of the National Employment Law Project, an advocacy organization for low-wage workers. "You would expect that the states should, even when they are not well prepared, to have savings."
So these states will be turning to federal taxpayers to replenish their unemployment-insurance funds.
The amounts the states have received from the federal government, or will be asking for, totaled up, don't appear to come close to the $14 billion of the failed legislative package for the Detroit Three.
But the effect on state coffers of additional unemployment that might come from one of more automaker bankruptcies didn't get as much attention during the recent Capitol Hill debate as it probably should have.
Also, states are talking about increasing taxes out of necessity to replenish their unemployment funds. More unemployment caused by a collapse of one or more auto makers could lead to even higher taxes in some states at the very time businesses can least afford them.











Comments
Clearly the Bush Tax cuts have worked. In order for an economy to be vibrant you have to let ultra rich people keep their money. The fundamentals of the economy are strong.
Posted by: dumpy | December 15, 2008 1:12 PM
I'm "mad as hell" that the auto companies need this loan too, but it is a far worthier cause than the bank bailouts, which passed so easily. I see the banks got theirs,and still are not making loans, and then they lay off tens of thousands of workers to be on UI benefits paid by the governement. I guess we should all be white collar capitalist pugs. I see how the business model works now. I wonder if there are going to be some serious changes to SOX in regards to derivitives trading, or are we just going to keep letting the bean counters play the shell game with us.
Posted by: Xcellentform | December 15, 2008 1:18 PM
Ditto XL.
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And I fully understand people being PO'd for bailing out an industry that has been screwing up consistently, not thinking forward, for decades.
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However, there's more to it than unemployment insurance for auto workers drying up. Many businesses and industries are tangentially connected to the auto industry -- suppliers, manufacturers, transport accross the nation and the globe. Also there are smaller smaller businesses (hardware stores, barber shops etc) that depend upon workers spending their wages.
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Allowing the American auto industry to fail would cause a cataclysmic chain reaction.
Posted by: MJ | December 15, 2008 1:42 PM
MJ, I think how you define "fail" is the real key. If you define it as completely ceasing operations, I agree the result would be catastrophic, impacting the related industries that you mentioned. If you define fail as being a company that is no longer competitive and able to stay solvent on its own, that has already happened.
I think there are legitimate arguments for a bailout, and I don't mean to trivialize them. However, I think the problems outweigh the benefits. First, the current plan is vague. A bridge loan to get GM and Chrysler to March solves nothing. They will be back in March asking us to get them through to July. Second, I don't see any reason to believe they have a business plan that will make them competitive. If they had concrete plans in place when they came hat in hand to Congress, I may have been more receptive. They didn't even know how much money they needed or have a plan for spending it. Ridiculous. Third, there is an alternative for failed companies and it is Chapter 11. Remove the stigma of the word "bankruptcy" and see what it really is - a break from creditors and an opportunity to amend obligations while still continuing day to day operations. You don't have to look far to see through to the real motives of people who oppose this. Officers and shareholders of the big three oppose it because they will likely lose their posts and their shares will become worthless. Labor, and thus the Democrats in their pocket, oppose Chapter 11 because a bankruptcy judge will have the authority to modify the collective bargaining agreement and force labor concessions. Fourth, where does this govt bailout end? I thought it ended with Bear Stearns. AIG. Fannie and Freddie. The bank bailout. Now auto? What industry is next in line? Should the federal govt bail them all out with borrowed money? How do they decide which industries/companies to bail out? If this auto bailout was the be-all-end-all of the bailouts that would right the economy, I may be more receptive to it. I have no reason to believe that is the case. Finally, the last reason is terrible oversight and vague strings attached to the proposed bailout. Nothing made me sicker than AIG executives going on a 400K "retreat" after getting govt money. The 700B bank bailout . . . who knows what is going on with that. Should we just hand over 30B to the auto execs and hope they do the right thing with it? What have they done to earn that trust other than running 100 year old companies into the ground?
As I said, I don't mean to trivialize the arguments for a bailout, and the biggest one in my view is the one no one talks about. The giant elephant these companies want to get rid of is their pension and health care obligations. If these companies go Chapter 11, there is a good chance the federal pension guarantee will have to take over the pensions. The health care, if we are talking retirees, will likely be Medicare/Medicaid. In other words, you and me will pay for these things. That, to me, is the strongest argument for a bailout - that we will pay for it one way or the other. This argument is much better than I see in the Swamp, e.g. Senate Republicans hate unions, etc. Still, on balance, with the vagueness of the plan in terms of details and dollar amounts, and the track record of these companies, I simply don't trust giving them billions of taxpayer money and think at this point it is throwing good money after bad.
Posted by: Herbie H. | December 15, 2008 2:53 PM
Herbie H.,
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I share your concerns. I didn't mean that we should just fling money at the auto industry. You're right they have a long history of mismanagement and inefficiency, and they have no apparent plan in place for reform. But something has to be done to fix this, sooner rather than later.
Posted by: MJ | December 15, 2008 5:45 PM
The argument that the taxpayer funds should not be given to automakers to delay bankrupcty because taxpayers shouldn't have to pay for the failings of the the automakers fully takes into account that U.S. taxpayers are going to wind up financially helping autoworkers and employees at the companies that supply them one way or another. It simply insists that those employees qualify for such support on the same basis as employees in other industries rather than first through subsidizing uncompetitive legacy benefit and dealership costs.
Posted by: someone who doesn't even know anyone who has retiree health coverage. | December 15, 2008 6:28 PM