Consumers strangely more upbeat: Gallup: The Swamp

Posted January 8, 2009 2:05 PM

by Frank James

There's been precious little good economic news lately. But that somehow hasn't kept consumer sentiment from improving recently according to Gallup's pollsters.

As Gallup reports:

Consumer expectations are getting a little better as the new year gets underway. The percentage of consumers saying the economy is "getting better" minus the percentage saying it is "getting worse" improved to -58 points during the week ending Jan. 4, 2009, after having hit -70 in mid-December as a reflection of deteriorating consumer expectations.

Gallup notes the oddity of this, given the aforementioned lack of good news.

It seems rather ironic that consumer expectations for the future of the U.S. economy have improved somewhat even as President-elect Obama describes the economic situation as "dire," the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City suggests the outlook for the first half of 2009 is "grim," and recent economic reports show economic activity plummeted during the fourth quarter of last year. Of course, the uptick in consumer expectations could simply reflect more positive spirits associated with the Christmas/New Year's period. Lower gas prices may also be helping encourage consumers. However, it seems more likely that many consumers, like many on Wall Street, are encouraged by talk of an enormous government stimulus plan and the soon-to-arrive Obama inauguration.

Whether consumers are encouraged by holiday cheer, talk of a new stimulus plan, or something else, it will be interesting to see how they respond to the economic headlines over the days and weeks ahead. On the one hand, they will hear about an increasingly depressing jobs situation. They are also likely to see numerous references to the potential for economic disaster as political leaders make the case for the economic stimulus legislation. Worst of all, they may end up seeing a rash of bankruptcies as the fallout of dismal holiday sales is realized.

On the other hand, there is likely to be at least a temporary euphoria as the nation celebrates the historic inauguration of the new president-elect. This optimistic atmosphere could gain momentum as the planned dramatic action by the federal government is outlined in more detail and the unprecedented actions of the Fed begin to be felt on Main Street.

Comments

Egads! How can the American people think differently than what we want them to think, Frank James and his accomplices in the media and Democratic party wonder! We keep telling them the world is coming to an end, yet more Americans are "strangely upbeat." We must hammer them with more bad news and negativity, Frank James thinks! Frank, did Bill "I love recessions and depressions" Neikirk help you write this?

Posted by: John D | January 8, 2009 2:28 PM

Somehow this calls to mind the New Yorker cartoon of the mirage in the desert.

A more ominous note is sounded by the events in Oakland.

Posted by: ornery | January 8, 2009 2:54 PM

Cosumers making their own upbeat CHANGE, don't need Obam's expensive CHANGE..

Posted by: Inky | January 8, 2009 2:58 PM

Come on...the Bush/Republican years weren't that bad, were they? I mean, Republicans are the fiscally responsible party, right? How bad could it be?

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
------------
Then: 4.2% (Bureau of Labor Statistics, January 2001)
Now: 6.7% (Bureau of Labor Statistics, November 2008)

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
---------
Then: 115.7 (Conference Board, January 2001)
Now: 38.0, which is an all-time low (Conference Board, December 2008)

U.S. BUDGET
-----------
Then: +236.2 billion (2000, Congressional Budget Office)
Now: -$1.2 trillion (projected figure for 2009, Congressional Budget Office)
.
http://www.americablog.com/2009/01/nothing-is-better-after-eight-years-of.html

Ok. Never mind.

Posted by: Big Orange Satan | January 8, 2009 2:58 PM

Anyone want to bet that on January 21st Johnny Delusion starts saying that the economy is the worst it's been in US history and that it's entirely Obama's fault?

Posted by: Lou | January 8, 2009 4:55 PM

Posted by: Lou | January 8, 2009 4:55 PM
Don't forget to thow in Nancy and Harry and Dick Durbin for good measure.

Posted by: Inky | January 8, 2009 7:41 PM

Americans are upbeat about the economy?

They are staggering around the mall like punch drunk sailors sobering up the morning after buck night in a West Texas brothel.

Americans are clueless consumer zombies that don't yet know the extent of the Bush Legacy nightmare.

America, you purposely drove off the cliff in '04.

Posted by: C.Morris✈ | January 8, 2009 9:28 PM

Posted by: C.Morris✈ | January 8, 2009 9:29 PM

At least Laura Bush is upbeat. She just managed to spend $493,000 on a new set of gold plated White House china. The same day the Dow dropped 245 points and early unemployment data predicts a net loss of over 600,000 jobs for the month of December.

All part of the Bush plan to restore dignity to the White House.

Worst President Ever.

Posted by: Bubba ✔ | January 9, 2009 12:51 AM

I am upbeat about the American economy. Going to make a ton of money on this "green" stimulus. Long live American capitalist.

Posted by: Bubba Porter | January 9, 2009 2:23 AM

So we're upbeat on the econ?

The sheeple in this country need to wake up quick. A reality pill or something.

NOW HEAR THIS!
Reaganomics is dead, and it's failures have put capitalism itself into a coma.

Cheap money, don't save, borrow and spend, or borrow and invest in hollow derivatives. ($53 trillion) It's all gone, yet it's still gotta be paid back.

China (#1) is starting to pull back on support of our treasury paper. Little Japan (#2) and UK (#3) can't support us alone.

Everyone needs to make a list of things they have that they can live without if necessary.

Most 401K statements will show a 30 - 40% loss for '08. This will put you back to about 1997 levels.

Posted by: OldCreaky | January 9, 2009 12:54 PM