by Frank James
How bad is the situation in Afghanistan which President Barack Obama is trying to salvage? A December report by the International Council on Security and Development provides some fairly fearsome dimensions to the problem.
While the international community's prospects in Afghanistan have never been bleaker, the Taliban has been experiencing a renaissance that has gained momentum since 2005. At the end of 2001, uprooted from its strongholds and with its critical mass shattered, it was viewed as a spent force. It was naively assumed by the US and its allies that the factors which propelled the Taliban to prominence in Afghanistan would become moribund in parallel to its expulsion from the country. The logic ran that as ordinary Afghans became aware of the superiority of a western democratic model, and the benefits of that system flowed down to every corner of the country, then the Taliban's rule would be consigned to the margins of Afghan history.
However, as seven years of missed opportunity have rolled by, the Taliban has rooted itself across increasing swathes of Afghan territory. According to research undertaken by ICOS throughout 2008, the Taliban now has a permanent presence in 72% of the country. Moreover, it is now seen as the de facto governing power in a number of southern towns and villages. This figure is up from 54% in November 2007, as outlined in the ICOS report Stumbling into Chaos: Afghanistan on the Brink. The increase in their geographic spread illustrates that the Taliban's political, military and economic strategies are now more successful than the West's in Afghanistan. Confident in their expansion beyond the rural south, the Taliban are at the gates of the capital and infiltrating the city at will.
Of the four doors leading out of Kabul, three are now compromised by Taliban activity. The roads to the west, towards the Afghan National Ring Road through Wardak to Kandahar become unsafe for Afghan or international travel by the time travellers reach the entrance to Wardak province, which is about thirty minutes from the city limits. The road south to Logar is no longer safe for Afghan or international travel. The road east to Jalalabad is not safe for Afghan or international travel once travellers reach the Sarobi Junction which is about an hour outside of the city. Of the two roads leaving the city to the north only one - the road towards the Panjshir valley, Salang tunnel and Mazar - is considered safe for Afghan and international travel. The second road towards the north which leads to the Bagram Air Base is frequently used by foreign and military convoys and subject to insurgent attacks.
By blocking the doors to the city in this way, the Taliban insurgents are closing a noose around the city and establishing bases close to the city from which to launch attacks inside it. Using these bases, the Taliban and insurgent attacks in Kabul have increased dramatically - including kidnapping of Afghans and foreigners, various bomb attacks and assassinations. This dynamic has created a fertile environment for criminal activity, and the links between the Taliban and criminals are increasing and the lines between the various violent actors becoming blurred. All of these Taliban successes are forcing the Afghan government and the West to the negotiating table.The Taliban are now dictating terms in Afghanistan, both politically and militarily.
And it's not just the Taliban. As noted in a document produced by Andrew Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies:
While detailed NATO/ISAF and US maps that show the growth of Taliban, Hekmatyar, and Haqqani areas of influence are classified, it is clear from unclassified briefings that these insurgent groups continue to expand their influence at the local level.
With the Taliban and other insurgent group's on the ascent and their use of Pakistan as a base, Afghanistan promises to be a much longer and more difficult war than it first appeared. It's already heading towards its eighth year and could continue for many more years to achieve the goal of preventing Afghanistan from being used again by al Qaeda as Terrorism Central.
Obama's challenge is not only going to be winning on the ground in Afghanistan and Pakistan but winning over the minds of his fellow Americans, especially for a war that promises to absorb many more American lives and dollars.
Comments
This is what happens when once again the republicans and their president prematurely call it "mission accomplished". The Afghanistan problem is directly a result of the poor leadership by the republicans. Taking our eye off of the real war on terror for the total blunder called Iraq. Prepare once again for the republicans now to wash their hands of the whole mess and declare it Obama's war as they have with the economy. Thanks republicans....I hope America remembers this.
Posted by: bill r. | March 27, 2009 9:34 AM
We must OPPOSE this proposed expansion. MoveOn.org must be surprise to learn that now the war has a new name:
The Irafgakistan war for oil masquerading as a 'war on terror' to further loot our treasury.
Osama bin Laden was MURDERED by November of last year.
Benazir Bhutto told David Frost she had been warned about being targeted by the same people who murdered bin Laden the month prior to her interview. Please view:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UnychOXj9Tg
----
Is Obama is doing an LBJ-style 'Vietnamization' of the 'war on terror' -- and will it sack our economy and make the world less safe.
NO FURTHER OIL WAR. SPEND THE MONEY ON EDUCATION, AND A CCC STYLE BULLET TRAIN SYSTEM ALONG THE MEDIANS OF OUR INTERSTATE HIGHWAY SYSTEM. WE NEED JOBS. NOT WAR.
PLEASE HELP US.
Thank you.
Posted by: CALL AND WRITE YOUR REPS AND THE WHITE HOUSE JUST SAY NO!!!! | March 27, 2009 10:02 AM
Correction: Anthony Cordesman, CSIS
Posted by: Sara | March 27, 2009 10:53 AM
Easily lost in the myriad reasons to despise the arrogance and incompetence of the Bush administration is the fact that perhaps their greatest, most consequential failure springs from the one thing they may have been right about.
Going into Afghanistan was a very tough call, but it may well have been the right one---to go after the Taliban after 9/11 and help to stabilize that most dangerous and crucial corner of the world.
Yet, they immediately trashed all the potential good they might have accomplished there by choosing to pursue, dishonestly, stupidly, relentlessly, their campaign in Iraq.
They didn't just "take their eye off the ball," or "drop the ball," they actively threw it away.
They snatched defeat from the jaws of victory and gave us and the rest of the world infinitely more danger and instability than we already had to deal with, while accomplishing nothing else.
The public memory being what it is, this criminally stupid betrayal of the national interest and security will soon become not just Obama's problem, but Obama's War in public perception. He'll have inherited an essentially bankrupt nation embroiled in 2 wars and take the fall for it all.
Posted by: mrbarolo | March 27, 2009 11:09 AM
The CHANGE should be Afghanistan is not worth American Lives.
Posted by: Inkt | March 27, 2009 11:10 AM
There goes bill r. again, setting the stage to blame Bush if obama fails...
Paulo
Posted by: Paulo | March 27, 2009 11:11 AM
billy quit whining, that is all you do, it gets old, so find some constructive ideas for a change to post. Fear not, Obama sounded rather informed and directly engaged in his new Afghan policy. It was presented as straight forward, no promises, difficult war against terrorists and the Taliban, not some "overseas operational contingency", so that was encouraging. Obama rationally explained the necessity for "defeating" the terrorists, eliminating the dangerous safe-havens in Pakistan, the threat that extremists pose to Pakistan fragile democracy and why it is so vital to American security. It was a impressive statement of his plans. I hope the American folks are ready for a long, tough fight because this is one. If we get bogged down in PC restraints we will lose. War is a dirty job. Obama needs our support on this one.
Posted by: bubba Porter | March 27, 2009 11:29 AM
bubba porter...........Seems a bit of the pot calling the kettle black my friend.
Paulo........Bush's incompetence in Afghanistan has made this war now harder than ever. If you think for one moment that going on 8 years of war in Afghanistan resembles victory in anyway...please let us know.
Posted by: bill r. | March 27, 2009 12:09 PM
Now billy, I think my comments are informed opinions against a tried and failed socialistic agenda. Yours come off as a herd mentality, lefty attack dog from the daily kooks. Drop the blame game.
Posted by: bubba Porter | March 27, 2009 3:14 PM
We'll give you credit for that one, Bubba Porter. Nice to see some honesty around here.
Posted by: Flo | March 27, 2009 6:55 PM
Pakistan is shaping up to be Obama's Iraq.
With the added complication of : kooks with nukes.
Posted by: ornery | March 28, 2009 10:43 AM
The CHANGE should be Afghanistan is not worth American Lives.
Posted by: Inkt | March 27, 2009 11:10 AM
"DITTO"
Best comment of the week. agree this is what CHANGE should be.
Posted by: Inky | March 28, 2009 10:50 AM
Enough! We promoted the very hoodlums the Taliban were about to overcome in our race to revenge 9/11. The revenge failed.
Assorted Westernized Kabuli types and their academic sycophants idolized the concept of dumb-ocratizing the country. The attempt to sell an alien ideology failed.
The Pashtu peoples, who we have abused and targeted with our radio controlled toy airplane attacks are now reemerge to complete a civil war against our hoodlums.
All the while we bemoan the fact that corruption abounds in a sham government, exactly as it did when the Taliban first emerged to rid themselves of it.
Unless we have an uninhibited and masoichistic requirement to throw money, lives and reputation down the drain, get out of Afghanistan...NOW!
Anything else is sheer stupidity.
Posted by: John Kountz | March 28, 2009 12:02 PM