Federal deficit: $1.84 trillion this year: The Swamp
The Swamp
Chicago Tribune
Posted May 11, 2009 10:25 AM
The Swamp

by Mark Silva

The annual budget deficit will surpass $1.8 trillion this year - a runaway new record in the gulf between what the federal government spends and what it collects - the White House's Office of Management and Budget reported this morning.

This is slightly larger than a $1.75-trillion deficit that the Obama administration projected for the 2009 budget year ending in September when the president entered office in February. His budget office today pegged the 2009 deficit at $1.84 trillion.

At the same time, President Barack Obama is standing by a pledge to cut the deficit by more than half by the end of his term.

The projected deficit for 2012 stands at $557 billion in the new report, which still will represent a larger dollar figure than any deficit which the former administration projected in setting its own records during the eight years of George W. Bush's presidency.

The new record deficit this year -- driven by the federal government's efforts at bailing out financial institutions and auto-makers, the $787-billion economic stimulus act that Congress approved one month into Obama's term and slumping federal tax revenue - will amount to 12.9 percent of the nation's Gross Domestic Product.

Both this year's deficit of $1.84 trillion and the $1.25 trillion deficit which the Obama administration is forecasting for the 2010 budget year that starts in October - projected at 8.5 percent of GDP - are higher than what the budget office projected in February.

"The deficits in these years, now projected to be 12.9 percent and 8.5 percent of GDP, respectively, are driven in large part by the economic crisis inherited by this administration,'' Peter Orszag, director of Obama's Office of Management and Budget, reported today, in delivering the final documents of the administration's proposed 2010 budget to Capitol Hill.

"Treasury now estimates that overall federal revenue will be less than was projected in February by between $30 billion and $50 billion in each of this year and next,'' Orszag reports. "We also have more information about the severity of the financial crisis facing the nation, and this is reflected in new, higher estimates for the cost of financial stabilization efforts undertaken.''

The president's budget office today projected that the deficit will slide from $1.84 trillion this year to $1.25 trillion in 2010, to $929 billion in 2011, to $557 billion in 2012 and to $512 billion in 2013.

As a percentage of GDP, considered by experts as a better measure of the deficit's impact on the economy, it is projected to slide from 12.9 percent to 8.5 percent next year. And it is projected to slide to 6 percent in 2011, 3.4 percent in 2012 and 2.9 percent in 2013.

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Comments

Remember, Mark Silva will get really offended if you oppose this type of deficit spending.


These deficits are no more damaging to the nation now than they were during the Bush regime., How come the new scrutiny over something Obama can't control?

http://www.political-buzz.com/


Thank you, ex-President Bush and ex-Vice President Cheney and all of the lemmings of the " Republican " Party, for dropping that deficit bomb on America, with your failed and fraudulent policies !! I will not even mention the Iraqi and Afghanistan wars that so greatly emptied our treasury!! Thanks, boys and girls of the fraudulent " Republican " Party ! America wishes you well, as you depart Washington D. C., hoping the door don't hit you in your caboose, on your way out !! We will see you again, when you develop some real, new ideas and ideal !!
SUPPORT OUR TROOPS, BRING THEM HOME, ALIVE AND WHOLE. NOW.


Silva's post about the comedian and the talk show host gets lots of traffic. Everyone's got something to say. This one and the other about the record deficit - ho hum, no one's interested.

Our electorate is woefully ignorant and it is going to mean the end of our great nation.


“At the same time, President Barack Obama is standing by a pledge to cut the deficit by more than half by the end of his term.”
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This is double-talk. A “deficit” is the amount of money a government spends in excess of what it takes in taxes in a single fiscal year. Thus, unlike the “debt,” there is no single “deficit” - as the above quoted language appears to imply. This fuzzy language might actually confuse people into believing the government is acting in a fiscally responsible manner. In reality, it merely masks the fiscal irresponsibility being practiced.
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If Obama manages to cut “deficits” to half of what they are now, it will still mean the federal debt will increase every year in an amount equal to or greater than any additions to it during Duh’bya two terms. It will still mean the federal government will continue to hemorrhage financially, and remain dependent on foreign finances to make up the differences. It will also mean the percentage of federal budget necessary to pay the debt service will increase, inflation will increase, the value of the dollar will decrease, and international confidence in the dollar will tumble. This is not (and should not be) and acceptable situation.
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Our foreign financial backers aren’t doing so well. China and Japan are going through some very hard times right now. China has already expressed its concern over the fact that its investment in our government securities loses value because the federal government can’t control its finances. Although China has pledged to continue buying government securities, one has to question how much longer they will be willing to do so. Further foreign support may depend upon actually balancing a few budgets in the near future.
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So, yes, some of you can continue to blame the whole financial mess on the Republicans, and/or believe that Obama is doing a good job. If you want to do that, it’s all good. I can’t help it if you choose to live life with blinders on. If you want to know the truth, however, reality is something very different. The truth is that Obama and the Democrat led Congress are making things much worse.


Matt, Obama can't control it? 800 billion of the deficit is the stimulus package he rammed through Congress. 350 Billion is half of TARP, which he campaigned for, voted for, then rigged so he could spend it rather than Bush. No control over that? Come on.

Mark Silva - question for you: You report correctly that Obama's budget (hopes to) reduce the yearly deficit to 500 some billion by 2013, but don't report that after that his yearly deficits gradually increase again to 779 billion in 2019. Don't you think it's a little misleading to take the low point on a continuum and point to that as evidence of fiscal sanity? Someone reading your article who had no knowledge of these matters could fairly conclude that Obama has the deficit situation under control. Not the case. It's also a little misleading to not point out that the CBO has higher deficit estimates, and private economists have said Obama's economic forecasts, which leads to the tax revenue estimates he relies on, are too rosy to be realistic.


The CBO reckons that Obama's endless deficits over the decade will total a gut-wrenching $9.3 trillion.


Oh my God Don Fitz....you have completely gone off the deep end with your Republican derangement syndrome. Isn't it time to get angry at your Messiah for not "BRINGING OUR TROOPS HOME ALIVE?" There is only one guy who can do it "NOW" like you have been asking for Donny boy...and his name is Barack Hussein Obama!!!!


JW, I've noticed that doubletalk about debt and deficit too. I've seen quotes like "When Bush took office there was a surplus, when he left the debt was 10 trillion." Completely misleading, and in my opinion, deliberately so when coming from the WH or some other entity that should know what it's talking about. I suspect the WH believes that there are a lot of Americans who believe that when they hear the "deficit is reduced to 500 billion" they are talking about the overall public debt. Not even close. Obama acknowledges his budgets will double the public debt, and that is a conservative estimate. Think about that. He is going top double the public debt that arose under the 43 presidents before him, including W, by himself. It's unsustainable and someone needs to put a leash on him. You try to talk to a democrat about this, and they plug their ears and yell about Bush running deficits- as if that's an excuse or justification for Obama doing it. You are a criminal defense attorney - if I am charged with robbing a bank, is it a defense to say some other guy robbed a bank too? Wake up people. This proposed spending is not sustainable, and the only people who have the power/influence to stand up to Obama might be the moderates in his own party.


* * * * *
Posted by: Herbie H. | May 11, 2009 5:59 PM
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I agree with you completely, Herbie. In fact, I had the “Clinton left us with a surplus” propaganda in mind when I commented on the double-talk of confusing “the debt” with “the deficit.” Of course, don’t expect anything but a complete pass on anything that Obama says. Hero worship and personality cults don’t allow for criticism. One can also expect to be chided for “blaming everything on Clinton” when you bring up his duplicity on the same subject. They don’t want to know the truth.
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The same is true of trying to explain that unsustainable spending doesn’t work regardless of which party is in power. I have always been horrified by Bush’ lack of stewardship in the federal budget process. Come to think of it, Democrats seemed to find fault with Bush’s budgetary excesses (even though the Democrats in Congress largely went along with them). When Bush was president, one robbery never justified another. All bets are off today, and the only reason is that it is their savior, rather than some lesser god, doing the spending. Unfortunately, the moderates in the Democratic Party don’t have the clout to counteract this trend.


Yeah JW, I agree about Bush. He revealed himself to be much more aligned with so-called social conservatives (which I care little for) than classic conservatives (which I support). I actually think the two are not necessarily aligned, but rather a marriage of convenience to survive in a two party system. Similar to hard working blue collar democrats being aligned with obnoxious wine sniffing San Francisco liberals.


The trouble with Bush growing government and expanding the public debt is not only that we are saddled with debt, but the GOP lost all credibility in opposing Obama's excesses. The GOP can't now pretend to be budget hawks after years of letting debt grow. That's why I said it could be fiscally moderate democrats such as Evan Bayh that could be the only thing to stop this spending. Whether they have the political will to do so is another matter. They will undoubtedly be attacked by Obama's propaganda army (moveon.org, etc) who would follow Obama off a cliff. Seeing this kind of devotion is disturbing. Take moveon - they have launched ads supporting Obama's health care plan. Just one problem - there is no plan yet. They are basically saying support Obama's health care plan, whatever it may be.


$1.84 Trillion in deficit spending, American $ presumably. The Elitist in me would not want everyone to have one, and not everyone would really know what to do with one, but that's 2.3 Billion American Standard Stratocasters, and that's not an especially manageble kind of quantity of things either.


JW, Herbie, I noticed the deficit / debt manglement too, but when u are fooling around with democrats, these things are not only inevitable, but necessary. Kathy, u are so right. Woefully ignorant, woefully unconcerned, and couldn't process the implications anyway. That's the electorate that I know. It's Bush's fault for at least another 4 years.



Herbie:
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Not only are the neo-cons and “classic conservatives” not aligned, I suspect that the revolt of the latter group during the last election cycle had a lot to do with the splintered support for Republican candidates. The classic conservatives finally expressed their discontent with the big spenders among Republican politicians in Congress. Many voted for blue dog Democrats who promised to be better conservatives than their Republican counterparts. I think the Republican Party and the public at large would do well without the neo-cons.
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Your comment about “obnoxious wine sniffing San Francisco liberals” is funny. (Did you see the South Park episode about hybrid cars?) I live 45 miles (48 minutes) south of San Francisco (and two counties away), and yet I’ve been there only once in the last ten years. That one occasion was for business. I don’t enjoy going to “the City” any more.
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Django: I think everyone should pay for their own Stratocaster. What I don’t understand is how someone with a name so closely related to jazz would want a Stratocaster. Stratocasters are for rockers, country pickers and an occasional fusion guitarist. I thought jazz guitarists would prefer something more like a Gibson L5, ES150, or ES175; or an ES330 or ES335 at the very least.


John W., you are again, so correct. It is amazingly rare to see a jazz player with a strat, but on occasion you will. Those Gibson models that you noted, or the Gretsch models, are preferred for jazz. Gibsons and Gretsch guitars have an inherently warmer, Joe Pass, Freddie Green, Wes Montgomery kind of sound (thicker, hollow bodies). Chet Atkins CGP (Country Picking Gentleman) personifies Gretsch very well.


I do have a Gretsch that I favor, if I know that I will be playing exclusively jazz standards. However, with a Stratocaster, and a little gadgetry, you can approximate practically anything, not have to worry about feed-back nearly as much, and if there is an inspirational moment for “Layla”, “Pancho and Lefty”, “Tequila Sunrise”, or “The Muppets Theme” then I am instantly on that with a Stratocaster in hand. Well, most of the time. Inspiration can be an ethereal kind of thing. I like the clarity and sexiness of a strat, but usually it just comes down to an undying loyalty to one of my 5 Stratocasters and the emotional connection that I still have for Pink Floyd, The Cars, Stevie Ray Vaughn, et.ux. I love the jazz guys, but the intensity is different.


In my own world of microeconomics, a Stratocaster $ Unit is the equivalent of 800 $ American. For measuring National deficits, it is most ‘woefully’ inadequate. From school world, I quickly learned that when you provide free stuff, you devalue stuff whether you intended to or not. We don’t need to nationalize the Fender company, give away the remarkable product, and de-facto devalue my beloved Stratocasters. Absolutely NO argument there. Undeniable Elitism, if necessary. Regards.


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Django: You said, “Gibsons and Gretsch guitars have an inherently warmer, Joe Pass, Freddie Green, Wes Montgomery kind of sound (thicker, hollow bodies).”
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I think what you meant to say is, “Plug them in and they go ‘doot.’ Turn the tone knob almost all the way down and they go ‘boop.’”
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I am aghast that you didn’t include “Walk don’t run” or “Apache,” in your repertoire, or any other twanginess from the Ventures, the Shadows or Dick Dale. I mean, wasn’t that what Strats were made for? Also, if you put down a Strat and pick up a Gretsch, doesn’t it take any time to readjust for the flatness of the fingerboard (as opposed to the curvature of the Strat fingerboard)? I know this happens when I play my American Made ’64 Strat vintage reissue after I put my ES335 away.
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I agree that giving stuff away for free devalues it. Not only does it get devalued, it loses quality because there is no competition to make free stuff. If any nationalization should occur, it should only happen to the Hondo Guitar Company. They’re making “firelogs” with strings as it is. Peace.


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