Swine flu: 'Encouraging signs,' CDC says

by Mark Silva

Federal health authorities see "encouraging signs'' that the new flu outbreak is not as severe as many feared when much of the attention toward "swine flu,'' now called the H1N1 virus, focused on deaths in Mexico.

While it still is likely that the spreading virus now confirmed in 30 states may claim more American victims - with about 36,000 Americans succumbing to the ordinary seasonal influenza each year - authorities said today that the initial cases of H1N1 found in the United States have generally been no more severe than the seasonal flu.

"What I can say is that we're seeing encouraging signs,'' Dr. Richard Besser, acting director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said on ABC News' This Week with George Stephanopoulos. "That makes us all very happy...

"When we get a virus, we look to see, does it relate to any other viruses?'' Besser said. "And then we look for things that are called virulence factors, those things that in the past have been linked to more severe disease. And what we've found is that we're not seeing the factors that were associated with the 1918 pandemic'' that claimed millions of lives.

Besser delivered a similar message on the other Sunday morning news shows, repeating the "encouraging signs'' that authorities are finding about a disease confirmed in 226 people in the U.S. as of 11 am EDT today -- up from the 20 cases reported Monday morning, when President Barack Obama first declared publicly that there was cause for "concern,'' but not alarm.

The World Health Organization this morning reported 787 confirmed cases of the disease in 17 nations. With 506 of the cases in Mexico, that nation also has confirmed 19 deaths, all but one of the world's reported deaths from the disease, the WHO reports.

"It's a rapidly evolving situation, and it's still one cloaked in uncertainty,'' Besser said on CBS News' Face the Nation. But "we're starting to see encouraging signs.''

"Here,'' Besser said on FOX News Sunday, "we're seeing encouraging signs that this virus so far is not looking more severe than a strain that we would see during seasonal flu. And so I still expect that this will have significant impact on people's health, but so far the signs are that it is not more severe than what we've seen in a seasonal flu."

Nevertheless, with one swine-flu death reported in the U.S. - that of a toddler from Mexico who traveled to Texas with his family - Besser said it still is likely that the U.S. will see additional deaths - "You would expect that there will be hospitalizations and unfortunately there will be more deaths,'' he said on CBS.

"The early news seems to be cautiously optimistic,'' said Kathleen Sebelius, the new secretary of Health and Human Services, appearing alongside Besser and Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano on the Sunday morning shows and adding: "We certainly can't get complacent.''

"I think that we will'' find more deaths in the U.S., said Napolitano, who has served as the Obama administration's leading spokeswoman on the government's response to the disease. "But the good news is,'' she said on Face the Nation, "when we look at this virus right now, we are not seeing some things in the past that have been associated with more serious flu.''

The swine-flu deaths initially reported in Mexico - which were thought to be more widespread than the 19 now confirmed - may have been "the tip of the iceberg'' of a flu that actually was widespread throughout the country, said Besser, whose agency has been working with the governments of Mexico and Canada to find the origin and extent of the virus and reasons for its behavior.

The government is proceeding with the manufacture of a new vaccine for the new strain of H1N1 virus, while also building up its stockpiles of vaccine for the seasonal flu expected in the fall.

"We'll be ready for both,'' Sebelius said on NBC News' Meet the Press. "We want to be out ahead of this.''

Asked if the government has overreacted to the outbreak of the new flu, Sebelius said. "We don't know... What's important is that we are aggressively reacting to what the science is telling us.''

It appeared clear, however, that Vice President Joe Biden had overreacted last week, when he said in an appearance on NBC News' Today show that he would advise people against traveling on airplanes and subway trains. His office and the White House later said that he meant to say that people infected with the flu should avoid public transportation and public places.

"The vice president immediately clarified what he meant to say,'' Napolitano said on Meet the Press, suggesting that anyone infected should be careful to avoid spreading the disease. "On the other hand, people should just carry on with their everyday lives, and, by and large, that's what Americans are doing.''