Obama's honeymoon: Sixth month, still

by Mark Silva

Despite a roughly 10-point decline in public job-approval since the high start of his presidency in January, President Barack Obama is "arguably'' still enjoying a "honeymoon'' with the American public, the Gallup Poll's historical review suggests.

Obama, whose job ratings started in the high 60s, have dipped to the high 50s in recent surveys but have "generally been above 60 percent,'' has surfed a wave of public approval longer than most recent presidents. "Recent presidents' honeymoons have typically ended much sooner than those of their predecessors,'' Gallup's Jeffrey Jones reports today, on this American holiday.

There is one benchmark for all: A historical average of 55 percent job approval for post Word War II presidents.

Presidents from Harry Truman through Richard Nixon enjoyed an average of 26 months above the historical average after taking office, in Gallup's long tracking of these matters. But presidents from Gerald Ford through George W. Bush enjoyed an average of just seven months of above-average from their starts.

Dwight Eisenhower enjoyed the longest run: Going 41 months into his presidency with above-55 percent job ratings. Ford and Bill Clinton had the shortest run: Just one month into office.

Since Ford's brief tenure during the mid 1970s, George H.W. Bush has enjoyed the longest early run: 21 months above average.

Obama, nearly six months in, still stands well above average with the low 60's ratings that he has enjoyed - running from an initial 68 percent after inauguration in January to a momentary low of 57 in recent Gallup daily tracking polls - and that daily track is something that Gallup has started with just this president. The most recent job-three-day average for the president: 61 percent job approval.

:"A honeymoon period has an obvious beginning -- when the president takes office -- but no obvious end,'' Gallup's Jones notes. "But given that honeymoons are characterized by above-average ratings, one way to define the end point is by marking the point at which the president's ratings become "average."

And the historical average presidential job approval rating through all of Gallup's decades of polling is 55 percent.

"Using this standard, each president from Truman to Nixon had a honeymoon that lasted at least into his 10th month in office. This includes popular presidents such as Dwight Eisenhower, who did not drop to 55 percent approval until his fourth year in office, and John Kennedy, who never did, but bottomed out at 56 percent in September 1963, his 32nd month in office. The president was assassinated in Dallas on Nov. 22, 1963.

"But only one of the last six presidents -- George H.W. Bush -- had a honeymoon that extended beyond his ninth month in office,'' Jones notes. "Bush's ratings actually climbed for much of his first year and a half in office as the economy remained strong, several communist regimes fell in Europe, and the U.S. military was able to capture Panamanian dictator Manuel Noriega and remove him from power.

"One reason earlier presidents had longer honeymoons is because they enjoyed much greater public support in the early part of their presidencies,'' Jones notes - meanings the numbers started so much higher than the average.

"The five presidents from Truman to Nixon averaged 74 percent job approval in their first quarters in office, compared with a 60 percent average for presidents from Ford through George W. Bush.

"But the earlier presidents were able to maintain their lofty ratings well into their second quarter; only Truman was unable to maintain or improve upon his first-quarter average approval rating in his second quarter in office. This group includes Nixon, who had a lengthy honeymoon despite starting out with initial ratings near 60 percent -- similar to what more recent presidents have had.

"The six presidents from Ford to George W. Bush were not as successful in maintaining or increasing their average ratings from the first to the second quarter; only Ronald Reagan and the elder Bush were able to do so. Ford and Bill Clinton in particular showed rather steep declines during their second quarters in office.

"Ford's decline was largely the result of his unpopular decision to pardon Nixon for his role in the Watergate scandal,'' Jones notes. "Clinton's was the result of a series of early missteps in filling key administration positions, controversy over his attempt to revise military policy toward gays, and the public relations nightmare that resulted from his tying up runway traffic at Los Angeles International Airport to receive a high-priced haircut aboard Air Force One.''

Obama averaged 63 percent during his first quarter in office.

"Because Obama has been able to maintain above-average approval ratings, he is arguably still in the honeymoon phase of his presidency,'' Jones notes. "Now in his sixth month in office, his honeymoon has already exceeded the durations of those for Ford, Clinton, and George W. Bush. If he can maintain ratings above 55 percent through the summer, his honeymoon will match the length of those for Jimmy Carter and Reagan.

"Obama's continuing honeymoon could be considered impressive, given that few of his predecessors faced such trying economic and international conditions upon taking office,'' Jones adds. " He has taken swift action to pass legislation to help improve the economy, but soon Americans will be looking for results and will hold him accountable if they are not there.''

The survey results are based on polls of 1,000 or more randomly selected adults conducted by Gallup from 1945 through this year. Polls from 1945-1989 were conducted mostly in person, and polls since 1990 mostly by telephone. Each has a margin of sampling error of no less than plus or minus 3 percentage points