by Mark Silva
Let's stipulate a few things first:
Sarah Palin has not announced that she is running for president.
President Barack Obama and V.P. Joe Biden soundly defeated the Republican ticket of John McCain and Palin last year.
Mooseburger makes a great chili, we hear from Wasilla, but quitting midway through the term as governor doesn't make for a great political resume -- even a narrow majority of Republicans surveyed say so of the former governor of Alaska.
All that said, more than three years out from any such potential matchup, Obama holds a good 20-percentage point advantage over Palin, the Republican former governor and 2008 vice presidential nominee, in a theoretical matchup for the presidency in 2012.
In the midst of what is proving to be a difficult summer for Obama, enmeshed in a fierce debate over health-care and apparently losing support (polls show) for his handling of a number of key domestic issues, more than half the voters surveyed for the Marist Poll - 56 percent - said they would vote for Obama in a contest with Palin.Just 33 percent said they would vote for Palin.
The numbers fall along party lines, as may be expected: With 92 percent of the Democrats surveyed favoring the president in a Palin match, and 73 percent of the Republicans surveyed favoring Palin.
For that matter, the Marist Poll finds no clear favorite among any of the Republicans tested in this survey: With 21 percent saying they could support former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in a GOP primary, 20 percent Palin and 19 percent former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.
Among the names most widely known now, support falls off after the top three: Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich drawing the support of 10 percent of the Republicans surveyed, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal 5 percent and Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty 1 percent.
Palin's decision to quit the governor's office little more than midway through her term after serving as the GOP's nominee for vice president last year " did not help her cause,'' Marist reports.
"In fact, voters say her action hurt her prospects for a presidential bid,'' Marist notes - 61 percent of all voters surveyed view Palin's resignation was a bad political move while just 15 percent say it should help her political aspirations. A slim majority of Republicans -- 51 percent -- say stepping down hurt her political future.
The Marist survey of 938 adults, including 854 registered voters, was conducted Aug. 3-6 and carries a possible margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percent.









Comments
One of the reasons the GOPer nutbags can't win elections anymore is because they're so far detached fron reality.
Stimulus Package and Other Efforts by the Obama Administration Starting to Work 6 Months After Initial Passage:
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http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=27870571&sort=username
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The Incredible Shrinking GOP: Only 20 Percent of Americans Self-Identify As Republicans
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http://theplumline.whorunsgov.com/political-media/the-incredible-shrinking-gop-only-one-in-five-self-identify-as-republican/
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Posted by: Planet Wingnuttia | August 18, 2009 2:50 PM
I generally tend to lean Republican, though I have voted for Democrats - Obama for Senate, for instance - and am not a big fan of Sarah Palin, but I'd guess, from as dispassionate a viewpoint as I can muster, that she's finished politically. If she runs for dogcatcher, let alone president, her Republican primary opponents, not to mention the Democrats, will beat her to death with her failure to complete her first term as Alaska governor. She'd better find some other line of work. Maybe she likes fishing?
Posted by: DaveB | August 18, 2009 2:55 PM
President Obama's already-solid approval ratings have started to climb again. The increase in the President's poll numbers can be traced back to when Corporate Sponsored Wingnut Teabaggers started terrorizing healthcare town-hall meetings; Americans, apparently, don't like people who quash civilized discussion by rudely screaming ad nauseam.
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http://www.upi.com/Top_News/2009/08/10/Obama-has-6-month-approval-of-63-percent/UPI-86581249921095/
The loud Insurance Industry Astroturfed protests by the right-wing goon squads at Congressional town hall meetings are made for the media. It doesn't matter if the protests are astroturfed, or not; no "serious journalist" can resist showing, or writing about, chaotic right-wing protests. Thus the actions of a small, frustrated, and angry crowd dominate the debate the corporate media says this country is having.
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http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/8194485.stm
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Posted by: Mullah Limbaugh - leader of the Greedy Oil Party | August 18, 2009 2:55 PM
Recent polls from more well known pollsters had results with significant differences from this one, though I don't remember Silva making a fuss about them.
I had to have a look at this one. Of 938 polled, only 310 were identified as Republican or Republican leaning Independents. So Democrats taking part outnumbered Republicans by more than 2-1.
I think Silva should be concerned about these results especially since we're so far away from 2012 and there is not yet a frontrunner for Republicans.
Posted by: K | August 18, 2009 3:13 PM
Last time there was a gap so important, was 15 minutes....on a tape.
Posted by: bill r. | August 18, 2009 3:47 PM
http://truthiest.blogspot.com/2009/08/roundup-of-sarah-palin-divorce-and.html
Roundup of Sarah Palin Divorce and Adultery Action!!!
Grandmother Sarah Palin Divorce Rumors Must Be Totally True
Posted by: Know1 | August 18, 2009 3:48 PM
I think Silva should be concerned about these results especially since we're so far away from 2012 and there is not yet a frontrunner for Republicans.
Posted by: K | August 18, 2009 3:13 PM
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Teresa,
There's no front running Repug because your entire party has turned into a fringe Regional (the South) party.
You Wingers better quit the foaming at the mouth perfomance art crap and get your act together or before long there won't be a Repug party anymore.
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http://www.usnews.com/articles/opinion/mashek/2009/05/12/litmus-test-conservatives-drive-republican-party-farther-south.html
Posted by: Kathy | August 18, 2009 4:22 PM
Great job, Mark. Still not mentioning the Gallup Poll--usually your favorite--which showed that Americans don't trust ObamaCare or the "stimulus". Which poll has people identifying themselves as "conservative" at a 4-year high, and much higher than those identifying themselves as "liberal".
Instead you dredge up the obscure Marist Poll and do another diss of Sarah Palin. Just as David Axelrod and the White House would want you to do.
Posted by: Bruce | August 18, 2009 5:51 PM
"K", Mark Silva censors polls that might hurt the image of his man Barack. For a few of many examples, here's polls--more recent, more credible than Marist--that the usually poll-happy Silva has so far avoided mentioning.
Gallup--"The strength of "conservative" over "liberal" in the realm of political labels is vividly apparent in Gallup's state-level data, where a significantly higher percentage of Americans in most states -- even some solidly Democratic ones -- call themselves conservative rather than liberal."
NBC/WSJ-- "Support for President Barack Obama's health-care effort has declined over the past five weeks, particularly among those who already have insurance, a Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll found, amid prolonged debate over costs and quality of care."
Rasmussen--"Thirty-five percent (35%) of American voters say passage of the bill currently working its way through Congress would be better than not passing any health care reform legislation this year. However, a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that most voters (54%) say no health care reform passed by Congress this year would be the better option."
"The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows that 31% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Forty percent (40%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -9 (see trends)."
Quinnipiac University Poll (August 5 – 9, 1,301 RV, MoE +/- 2.7 %) "shows President Obama's approval rating slipping to 56%, a five point decline from last month and down from his high of 68% in June."
I could go on, giving the news The Swamp writers won't.
Posted by: Bruce | August 18, 2009 6:06 PM
The whole premise of a Palin-Obama faceoff is a non-starter. It’s about as credible as the early 2007 predictions of an election contest between Giuliani and Clinton.
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Sarah Palin simply doesn’t have the qualifications or leadership qualities necessary to win a party primary or nomination, much less the presidency. From the things that have come out of her mouth, I get the impression that someone who passed a high school civics course knows more than she does about the operation of government. Her decision to ditch the officer of Governor in Alaska with 18 months left on her term (and without a good reason) also demonstrates her inability to operate under pressure. That SHOULD shake people’s confidence in her ability to operate as the country’s chief executive.
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You know, we read more about Sarah Palin on the Swamp than anywhere else, and more than either her actions or reasonable interest in them would warrant. I am beginning to wonder whether Mr. Silva has a crush on Ms. Palin. Why else would he write so much about her?
Posted by: John W. | August 18, 2009 6:41 PM
Mark,
Thanks for sharing your daily stalking of Sarah.
Remember - Sarah tweeted, Obama retreated.
Posted by: Terry | August 18, 2009 7:41 PM
It wasn't too long ago that, seeing their deficiencies on the compassion front, a presidential candidate named George W. Bush and his slimeball swengali Karl Rove co-opted the concept of "compassionate conservatism". They had correctly surmised that Republicans were seen as heartless, selfish, and unconcerned with the plight of the less fortunate. Understanding that winning as the part of entitlement and privilege would be tough, they set out to pain themselves as empathetic, or "compassionate" (same thing).
9-11 spared them the trouble of having to reprise that approach in 2004, when the election focused on scary terrorists under everyone's beds. But it's probably a safe assumption that without Bush's adoption of the "compassionate" label, he probably would've never come close enough to Gore to have the Supreme Court select him president.
Now that the GOP is wildly out of sync with America on compassion, and losing the youth, women, and (ethnic and sexual) minority vote because of that value, their biggest hope would be to bring back the "compassion" thing and hope people fall for it again. Yet in a stroke of good luck for our side, Republicans seem to have universally concluded that Bush failed because of his attempts at "compassionate conservatism".
The GOP's "compassion gap" has put them in an electoral hole almost impossible to dig out without radically changing its core philosophy, yet the conservative base and intelligentsia blame 'compassionate conservatism" for Bush's failures, despite the fact that Bush likely got the White House in the first place because of his "compassionate conservative" campaign.
Take a look at the small minority of right-wing lunatic fringe screamers who are shuting down rational discussion at Healthcare Townhalls all over America by yelling over everyone - that's what's left of the Republican party in 2009.
Posted by: quit crying bruce | August 18, 2009 9:37 PM
That match would be rather like Laurence Olivier running against Lucille Ball.
Posted by: ornery | August 18, 2009 10:06 PM
John W., well said, as usual. Palin is now tabloid fodder. I'm convinced that her selection as a VP candidate was a hairbrained sceme to attract angry women voters who thought Hillary got a raw deal.
She was clearly not ready for prime time, and now I doubt she ever will be. That being said, I will never understand the level of hate and/or obsession (Silva?) this woman inspires. I just don't think she is interesting enough to arouse emotions like that, but maybe you have to be a liberal to understand.
Posted by: Herbie H. | August 18, 2009 11:03 PM
Recent polls from more well known pollsters had results with significant differences from this one, though I don't remember Silva making a fuss about them.
I had to have a look at this one. Of 938 polled, only 310 were identified as Republican or Republican leaning Independents. So Democrats taking part outnumbered Republicans by more than 2-1.
I think Silva should be concerned about these results especially since we're so far away from 2012 and there is not yet a frontrunner for Republicans.
Posted by: K | August 18, 2009 3:13 PM
Try "Reading for Dummies". The poll separated the GOP and Democratic numbers. Many GOP don't want her either. But don't let facts stop a good nutbag wingnut rant.
Posted by: Disgusted | August 18, 2009 11:43 PM
Terri,
Does Sarah read though?? I seem to remember her being unable to tell us all anything she has read in the recent past. Go ahead and put her on ther ballot in 2012.
Posted by: Doug R. | August 19, 2009 8:07 AM
Terry, I think that Mark puts in these Palin items just to throw some red meat to the yapping dogs of the Left.
It doesn't appear to be working so well any more, though; only 7 comments on this item.
Posted by: DaveB | August 19, 2009 8:27 AM
The mere thought of Palin even running is absurd..She has already had her 15 minutes of fame and couldn't even handle that..She doesn't have the intelligence to run our Country and obviously not even her state..She needs to get over the noteriety and just live her life..Out of politics!!!!
Posted by: kaye c. | August 19, 2009 12:07 PM
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Posted by: quit crying bruce | August 18, 2009 9:37 PM
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That’s all good and well John E., er … quit crying bruce, but it wasn’t George W. Bush and Rove who came up with the idea of “compassionate conservatism.” The concept was formulated by presidential advisor Doug Wead, first used by Republican politicians in 1984, and first applied to George H.W. (“Daddy”) Bush back in 1986. George W. Bush didn’t get the idea from Wead until later.
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But I guess you would never learn the truth by cherry picking information from you wild and fuzzy buddies on far left-wing web sites. Oh, and BTW, this is about the third time the same propaganda post has been cut and pasted to the Swamp. Give it a rest already. Besides, what does any of this have to do with Mark Silva’s crush on Sarah Palin?
Posted by: John W. | August 19, 2009 6:48 PM
Dave B - you are absolutely correct. I think Silva puts the Palin posts on teh Swamp to generate traffice.
Doogie,
Any day you think that the leading female of the democratic party, Speaker Dimwit - two heartbeats away from the White House, is up to a debate with Gov Palin, let me know. I'll pay to see Sarah mop the floor with Nancy's botoxed brains.
Posted by: Terry | August 19, 2009 7:44 PM
I think that Huckabee will rally and move up the Republican rankings. He took a 200 million dollar budget deficit in Arkansas and turned it into an 850 million dollar surplus. That is what people want to see. Monetary responsibility, something we havent' seen in this administration. Huckabee beat Romney in 2008 with far, far less money.
Posted by: Stephen Staedtler | August 20, 2009 11:59 AM